quote:

Originally posted by just1tym:

I'll not forget 8/24/92. .

I went to bed on 8/22 with TS Andrew off the Bahamas and moving NNW. On 8/23 as I was laying new flooring in my kitchen the update had Andrew as a Cat 2 and now moving W right at us was a shock! With my Mom and Dad on vacation, I had a business, boat, and 2 homes to prep for Andrew in less than 12 hours. Lucky for us, Andrew was so tight, Ft Lauderdale was hardly damaged, I had power at my house in less than 24 hours post storm.

5 days after the storm I had to go down to Key Largo and Homestead to salvage 2 boats, and to this day I have never seen destruction like I saw in Homestead.

Point is, if you can avoid flying into an area that is in the cone, do it.

If you are not supposed to fly out until Saturday morning, then make your decision on Friday, by then you will have a real good idea of what is going to happen.

The storm did strengthen today. This morning I saw wind forecast of 100mph at / near landfall. This afternoon they are now saying 115mph at / near landfall.

Also note, the parks have started closing for storms like this. Usually only one day, I think for one storm (Irma?) they closed two days.

FWIW, my family was supposed to go to Amelia Island (outside Jacksonville) this weekend, Saturday though Monday. I cancelled this morning. I figured that even if it doesn't make landfall there, it still will not be beach type weather.

quote:

Originally posted by bigdeal:

quote:

Originally posted by just1tym:
Andrew gave me a new perspective and appreciation of dangerous category storms..

Andrew is one of the best examples in the books that our weather 'professionals' don't know jack about predicting these storms. Andrew was supposed to visit us in Central Florida before its movement into south Florida. And I visited Cutler Ridge post storm, so I'm well aware of the damage that storm inflicted. That said, the hype and BS people have pumped out on each storm over the past few years has risen to a point of utter irresponsibility. Common sense and person responsibility still should drive each of us in determining how we react to these storms.

Was living in Whispering Pines in Cutler Ridge, still do having only moved a few miles from that home to stay within a few miles of work. Just had to re-window, doors, and roof. I used the insurance money and a small SBA loan to fix up the new/old home.

As to the OP, They've also predicted that the storm could possibly fizzle out completely, it's happened before. I certainly wouldn't rule out showers though. Being south of Orlando our daily normal forecast is fast moving thunder showers almost every day, pattern type typical South Florida weather.

quote:

Originally posted by holdem:
This morning I saw wind forecast of 100mph at / near landfall. This afternoon they are now saying 115mph at / near landfall.

And they are once again, lying through their teeth. Hurricane Charlie passed directly over my home as a CAT 4/5 storm and sustained winds were 112mph. No way that piss poor little storm is throwing out that kind of wind (at least not yet). Again, prepare for the weather 'experts' to tell us repeatedly how Florida will be completely under water in the coming days, with all life having been lost.

quote:

Also note, the parks have started closing for storms like this. Usually only one day, I think for one storm (Irma?) they closed two days.

^^^This. To the op, keep tabs on the status at Disney. They may eventually make your travel decision for you.

Florida has a very small number of interstates to drain a very populous state. The last mandatory evacuation - Irma, 2017 as I recall? - was a horrorshow. The idea of going in voluntarily, in search of fun.....doesn't register.

Have a fallback plan. In fact, personally, I'd make Disney/Universal the fallback and plan for the other thing.

If the sustained winds were only 112mph when it passed over your house, the Charlie had weakened and was no longer Cat 4 when it did so. Charlie was a Cat 4 w/140mph winds when the eye passed over my house and then my parents' house a few minutes later.

Charlie is another great example of the weather folks don't know what's going to happen until it happens. Early that morning, they were still predicting it would hit Tampa as a Cat 2.

2017's Irma was touted to be storm of the century, Cat. 5. It's predicted path was all over the place.

Forget about the center line in the cone at this point. It means nothing. The entire cone represents potential places the storm could be at that point in the future. Right now, it could make landfall anywhere between the Upper Keys and Georgia sometime on Sunday or Monday.

I live in South Florida and have seen a few. Made it through Andrew, Wilma and Irma. They are very unpredictable this far out. Currently they are saying possibly a Cat 3 when & where it makes landfall. Good luck with your trip and to all the Florida members!!!

Somebody is going to have to pilot the Millennium Falcon!

I watched a tropical storm roll into FWB in 2002 I think it was. My TN butt was out on the pier watching it amazed how frothy the ocean looked. It was worth getting pelted in the eyes with rain to see it.

I can guarantee with just as much accuracy as the news that it is going to rain in Florida this weekend.

It might be windy, too.

That out of the way, I would not go on vacation somewhere that a hurricane is headed. It does not take much to make that a bad situation.

I agree that a trip at this time will be a waste. Like others have said you are going to make a long trip and stay in a place with limited supplies,maybe no electric for a few days or more, no transportation to get supplies,etc.. I hate to ruin anyone's vacation plans but it could be a big mistake. I also agree there is no telling where the storm/hurricane could go.

Welcome to the wonderful world of mass media mental retardation compliments the local POS fish wrapper... God I hate these people.
Hurricane Dorian could be worst storm to hit Central Florida in three decades if current track holds, meteorologist says

And by the way, a number of actual meteorologists have admitted today they still don't know where this storm is going or how strong it will be. But according to the Orlando Slantinel, all life in Florida is about to be snuffed out by the current storm of the century.

At least we know exactly where it will hit!

Is there time to readjust the vacation?

Depending on who is in the family, there’s Niagara Falls, Yellowstone, Sleeping Bear Dunes, MI, Traverse City, Mackinac Island.

If you have the time off, adjust & go somewhere else.

I just read that some airlines are waiving change fees and refunding on cancelled flights. Watch your airline web page. No matter what happens it is going to be a wet weekend

quote:

Originally posted by sourdough44:
Is there time to readjust the vacation?

Nope.

My wife, her sister my and in-laws have been planning this for over a year now. I was told basically to STFU about any more hurricane talk and barring our flight getting cancelled, we are going.

Never mind that we now getting down there JUST before what may be a Cat4 hurricane passing over the whole Orlando region. I can’t wait to be stuck in a hotel with no power or anything with 5 kids age 2-8 for potentially days.

Your flight down on Saturday will probably be fine, but your flight back...

In a sense, they are right. There is nothing you can do but wait, see and hope for the best.

On Saturday before your flight, if it looks like the storm is going to Orlando as a hurricane, I'd stay home.

Link

ORLANDO, Fla. — After months of saving money and weeks of planning, your family's dream vacation to Walt Disney World may be interrupted by Hurricane Dorian's wrath.

Although the path of Dorian continues to change, the storm's predicted path at this point looks as if the Orlando area could be impacted.

So, what are your options when Disney's Florida theme parks happen to be in the path of a significant weather event?

The Walt Disney World Resort has its own hurricane policy that may be implemented for visitors during a storm -- but there are several factors involved.

Here’s the basic policy as listed on Disney's site: “If a hurricane warning is issued by the National Hurricane Center for the Orlando area – or for your place of residence – within seven days of your scheduled arrival date, you may call in advance to reschedule or cancel."

Those who booked their vacation directly with Disney do not face any cancellation or change fees.

“If you have products and services provided by third-party suppliers included in your vacation -- such as airlines, hotels, car rental agencies or vacation insurance companies -- you will continue to be responsible for any non-refundable payments, as well as cancellation or change fees assessed by those suppliers.”

If your flight was booked through Disney, the company will attempt to "rebook your air travel. However, you will be responsible for any cancellation or change fees imposed by the airline."

Read Disney's full hurricane policy HERE .

Disney may end up shutdown. Who wants to be there even if just 30 mph winds and rain?

Find someone in the group with sense & start ‘building your alliance’. If this keeps heading towards central FL, I’d find somewhere else to go.

quote:

My wife, her sister my and in-laws have been planning this for over a year now. I was told basically to STFU about any more hurricane talk and barring our flight getting cancelled, we are going.

Have any of them been through a hurricane? If things get bad, they may not just drive to the airport and catch their flight home after the storm.

They sound like some of my in-laws. Stubborn and not all that bright. If you didn’t have kids involved I’d suggest you stay home and let the geniuses suffer the consequences of their folly.

PASig, some of the comments seem to describe how, as Floridians, they survived a hurricane strike, not directly answering the advisability of voluntarily injecting your family into a real mess, potentially. To actually fly down there and hope for the best seems illogical at best. Even a tropical storm is no fun to be in, maybe not life threatening, but no one goes out in one for the hell of it.
Stay home. Bad luck happens.