All the experts saying dont worry.... it will only be a rain storm too much wind shear,
WELL TS MILTON is on its way will hit as a CAT 3 MAYBE between Tampa and Naples.
AARGH

This one looks bad for the west coast of Florida.

Yeah, starting to follow Milton more closely. Was supposed to leave NC to go to our place near Arcadia tomorrow. Think I will be sitting tight until Milton runs its course.

Your only 32 miles N of us up SR 31.
Come and say hello when all this AARGH is finished

quote:

Originally posted by Powers77:
Yeah, starting to follow Milton more closely. Was supposed to leave NC to go to our place near Arcadia tomorrow. Think I will be sitting tight until Milton runs its course.

We are bolting the place down here in Central Florida. Current track runs about 10 miles south of me.

We've laid in extra horse feed and hay, and hung extra buckets for water.

Our supplies are sufficient, and we have generators for room AC and keeping food cold.

Enough already! I left all my storm shutters down except for two in the living room. Just dropped those while it’s not raining. I’ll wait for now on the patio furniture & decorations until tomorrow unless they have new updates saying otherwise. At least I’m 4 miles from the coast and 3 miles from the Caloosahatchee River so storms surge in the past has not been an issue. We were without power for over two weeks and water for a week with Ian so we have had all our supplies laid in for a couple months already. Plan for the worst, pray for the best.

Yeah. It's been about 20 years since Tampa has been directly hit by a hurricane so it's overdue for one. My preperations remain the same though. I will stay in place for a Cat 3 and below but drive away for a Cat 4 and higher. It's easy for me to say this because I don't own a house. Good luck everybody.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Paten,

I hope and pray to the Good Lord this one is gentle to us, even though it looks nasty.

Northwest Panhandle checking in. It appears We’re gonna miss this one as well. Prayers for those in the path.

My 90 year old father is at Shell Point retirement at Fort Myers. Enough of these storms! He can’t take another one.

Based (as of 11am update) on how far out in the gulf it's projected to turn into a CAT 3 and all of that warm water, it's a safe bet this will be at-least a CAT 4 at landfall. And given the damage Helene just did in Tampa Bay, I won't be surprised to see Irma style mass evacuation-clusterF*** because everyone is already on-edge.

I'm in St Pete, not in a flood zone, with skin in the game (house) and have solid plans to ride it out for both direct & indirect hits; but not evacuating before the storm. Afterwards, plenty of supplies to survive but have the ol' Land Cruiser ready to go if things end badly. On that note, if there are any Sig Forum Members in Pinellas, I'm in the southern end of the county and will help if I can; shoot me an email with your contact info and I'll text you my phone number (please let me know who you are so I don't think it's scammers phishing for information).

Godspeed, everyone.

Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Milton is strengthening.
A large burst of convection is occurring in the northern semicircle
of the storm, with lots of expanding outflow. The last fix from the
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed a pressure down to 991 mb
with maximum 500m low-level winds of about 65 kt. These winds
reduce down to the surface to about 55 kt, and this value will be
the initial intensity.

The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Milton is south of the
previously anticipated and has been moving east-southeastward or
105/5 kt. Milton is forecast to move a little south of due east
today in westerly flow from a shortwave trough over the northern
Gulf of Mexico. The storm should then turn northeastward and
accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula.
As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been
a southward change to most of the guidance this morning. The new
NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early
on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the
guidance trend continues. The Mexican government has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
as a result of the forecast change. It should be noted that the
average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users
should not focus on the exact track.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew reported that an eyewall has formed
on the last center fix, suggesting that this system is ready to
intensify quickly. Given the track over the very deep warm waters
of the Gulf of Mexico and little shear for the next couple of days,
rapid intensification is explicitly forecast, and the new NHC
prediction could still be conservative over the central Gulf of
Mexico. The biggest question actually seems to be the intensity as
Milton approaches Florida, with much of the guidance showing a
notable increase in shear. While some weakening is anticipated,
the shear could help transition Milton to be a large hurricane at
landfall, with impacts spread out over a big area. Regardless of
the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful
hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions
of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents
there should closely monitor this system and listen to local
officials.


Key Messages:

1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward
to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane
when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.
Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as
there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and
intensity of Milton.

2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location
of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of
life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early
Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches could be issued later
today or tonight. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow
any advice given by local officials and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday
night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential of moderate to major river
flooding.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Monday across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 22.4N 94.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 22.2N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 90.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 23.5N 88.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 24.7N 86.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 29.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 31.0N 72.0

LINK https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/...+shtml/061458.shtml?

Shoot I’m on the east coast of Fla about 100 miles south of the proposed exit location and you don’t want to attempt Publix today. Picked up a couple bottles of boo3 for the wife and her sister next door and there were not enough parking spots. And it was pouring rain! Liquor store was busy but Publix was nuts. Shoot they even stripped all the toilet paper from the shelves. Yesterday!! There are a lot of new people here and they are panicking.

For a bit of levity, I am reminded of a past student of mine. During one of the past tropical events, I think it was Hurricane Irma, the hysterical panic buying was in full swing as he was at Home Depot. On a whim, he grabbed a toilet bowl flapper valve, and loudly said, "Whew! I am glad they still had these!" and went on his way. He looked back, and a lady had swept the entire shelf of flapper valves into her cart! I always wondered what happened when she figured out she bought 20 toilet parts.

AAAAAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA... That's hilarious. I can think of a couple of your guys who would have done that.

quote:

Originally posted by ArtieS:
AAAAAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA... That's hilarious. I can think of a couple of your guys who would have done that.

You know him!

quote:

Originally posted by DrDan:

quote:

Originally posted by ArtieS:
AAAAAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA... That's hilarious. I can think of a couple of your guys who would have done that.

You know him!

Yes, I do. Mad respect. Send him to Costco to have that conversation around bulk dog food.

https://zoom.earth/ Looks like we might avoid a direct hit here in Tampa but still not in the clear. I might stick around here if it doesn't come back towards us.

In Tampa right now with my dad cleaning up from Helene. Hoping this fresh hell won’t come to roost now. Our car is toast d/t flooding, so we don’t have a way out, looks like our flights home might get cancelled, just got the a/c back on, and we’re cleaning out everything we have. Our yard looks like somebody went mudding here. Cripes.

Bro just checked his genny, and he says he has enough beer.

I told him to take in the screens, neighbor is cooking food for them and friends JIC the power goes out.