it would certainly invigorate the hard-core leftists

but that's no surprise

in terms of independents -- i doubt it

abortion rates have fallen to all time lows recently :


The number of abortions fell by 196,000—a 19% decline from 1,058,000 abortions in 2011 to 862,000 abortions in 2017.1,2
The abortion rate (the number of abortions per 1,000 women aged 15–44) fell by 20%, from 16.9 in 2011 to 13.5 in 2017.
The abortion ratio (the number of abortions per 100 pregnancies ending in either abortion or live birth) fell 13%, from 21.2 in 2011 to 18.4 in 2017.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/u...-nationwide-n1055726

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So what if the leftists become invigorated? That we should hope the Supreme Court set aside the constitution?

We should continue to appease them because they'll play nicer? How well has that worked for Republicans?

The law being challenged doesnt outlaw abortions. Funny how Main Stream seems to always leave that out.

It only outlaws it after 15 weeks.

Most of your moderate pro-choice people do not seem to be really opposed but are concerned about 'encroachment' on the 'fundamental' right. However, the extremist will always be exterme.

I just wish the media could be honest about it.

He says he would like it more if it was restricted at 20 weeks rather than 15 weeks...
BUT that really concedes the point: It should be left up to the people to decide in individual states.
Over-turning Roe v Wade would return power to the States and to the people through their elected representatives.

Most of this is hysteria on both sides since somewhere well over 90% of real world abortions will see zero effect, as they do now.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:
...
Over-turning Roe v Wade would return power to the States and to the people through their elected representatives.

I have been saying this for years and years. I'm convinced - when it comes to issues like abortion - there are people who know they must keep the abortion issue at the federal SCOTUS level. If SCOTUS rules "we're out" and reminds the people about Article 1, Section 8 of the US Constitution, and the 10th Amendment, the people get to make decisions through their state legislatures.

quote:

Article I, Section 8, specifies the powers of Congress in great detail. These powers are limited to those listed and those that are “necessary and proper” to carry them out. All other lawmaking powers are left to the states. The First Congress, concerned that the limited nature of the federal government was not clear enough in the original Constitution, later adopted Amendment X, which reserves to the states or to the people all the powers not specifically granted to the federal government.

IMO, they are terrified as to how the people will vote when it comes to the abortion issue. The must have all of the hoopla, protests and pressure around SCOTUS and future nominees. They know they need to control that process and try to "keep control" of the court at any cost, including "packing" the court as necessary.

quote:

Originally posted by Sig209:
abortion rates have fallen to all time lows recently :


The number of abortions fell by 196,000—a 19% decline from 1,058,000 abortions in 2011 to 862,000 abortions in 2017.1,2
The abortion rate (the number of abortions per 1,000 women aged 15–44) fell by 20%, from 16.9 in 2011 to 13.5 in 2017.
The abortion ratio (the number of abortions per 100 pregnancies ending in either abortion or live birth) fell 13%, from 21.2 in 2011 to 18.4 in 2017.

All your stats end in 2017. Abortion rates are up in the last 3 years, according to what I heard on the Moody Bible Radio station yesterday.

Sounds like a whole lot of what ifs. Beyond that, I’m not seeing anything I can do to affect the trajectory at the moment. I think I’ll sit back, wait and see what the court does, then see what happens from there. Getting excited now based on predictions doesn’t seem worthwhile.

It's not a Constitutional issue...it's an issue for the individual states. Leftist have been out maneuvering us for decades...they are not people you can equitably share a country with.

Simply amazing to me that the real issue with Roe is always ignored and overlooked. That issue....Roe is horrible jurisprudence by the high court. Full stop. SCOTUS made up law as they went and created a 'supposed' right out of thin air that does not exist. Roe is one of the biggest glaring failures in the history of the high court. As either Thomas or Alito specifically noted, abortion does not exist anywhere in Constitution. If the high court had any sense of right and wrong (obviously the liberal justices are excluded here), they would set aside Roe and allow the subject to be relitigated at the state level where it belongs.

What does it matter if the left gets excited? These idiots got excited over the Russia collusion BS and ten other made up issues. The left will invent something to whip their idiots into a voting frenzy so we might as well win worthwhile moral fights.

quote:

Originally posted by redstone:
The law being challenged doesnt outlaw abortions. Funny how Main Stream seems to always leave that out.

It only outlaws it after 15 weeks.

Most of your moderate pro-choice people do not seem to be really opposed but are concerned about 'encroachment' on the 'fundamental' right. However, the extremist will always be exterme.

I just wish the media could be honest about it.

The MSM also fails to mention that even if Roe vs. Wade is overturned it won't make all abortion illegal. It just puts the job of adjudicating it back to the States, the way it was before that unwise decision was made. I suspect that several States would still allow abortions (California, for one) and it's not difficult to get to one that did.

flashguy

This entire debate shows what a mess our legislative branch is. A couple of years ago the SCOTUS had to decide whether the word "sex" in the civil rights act prohibited discrimination based on sexual orientation. Congress could have saved years of litigation and political agitation by simply adding that phrase to the act, but since it's politically divisive they left it to the Court.

The same issue exists here - Congress could pass a federal bill prohibiting any state from interfering with abortions prior to viability (what Casey holds) but Congress knows that it would be very contentious and require them to (gasp!) take a position on the issue, so they leave it to the Court.

The reason the SCOTUS is viewed as political is because the other branches have been foisting on it divisive political issues, precisely because the justices are unelected, and the Court has taken the bait. They never should have gotten into the abortion business (among a great many other things) and they should get out of it by telling Congress to take the issue up and be accountable for whatever the results are.

There's getting them wound up and there's getting them wound up.

As has been said, the hardcores will be on fire no matter what. And everyone will be out to vote for one congressweasel or another. Since only 34 Senators are up for re-election and everyone already knows where they stand, it's hard to see any surprises when it comes to election turnout based on Senate races.

Oh, and every politician will be parsing every syllable to avoid pissing off as many people as possible.

I have two questions:

How aggressively will Republicans vote to either keep a lid on abortion?

How aggressively will Republicans move to 'replace' Roe v. Wade legislatively?

The post-decision conversation, if SCOTUS decides to leave the law alone, will tell all.

If the Repubs simply get into a conversation about legislative replacement, it will defang abortion supporters' efforts to get out the vote. Nor will anything catastrophic happen if they do; no politician is in a hurry to touch that third rail and no collection of politicians is in a hurry to pass any kind of law directly affecting access to abortion. That's why legislators avoid the issue like the plague and have been willing to leave an incredibly poorly written SCOTUS decision alone for so long. The whole mess will just sit there and simmer.

That's just what the left needs to energize their base. I mean with Joe and Camelia lulling them to sleep they need something.

quote:

Originally posted by DaveL:

The same issue exists here - Congress could pass a federal bill prohibiting any state from interfering with abortions prior to viability (what Casey holds) but Congress knows that it would be very contentious and require them to (gasp!) take a position on the issue, so they leave it to the Court.

Viability? What the hell does that even mean?

And anyway, the federal government has no business making such a law.

The left lives off its bumper stickers, substance is never part of the discussion. They can dredge up the bogus War On Women and make an awful lot of noise. Whole industries and cultures live off that noise, it's all they need. It's not like the White supremacists are the greatest threats will go away but the WOW is another tool they've used effectively for some time. The totalitarians' noise may be the best thing they have going for them. That noise comes from a lot of directions.

It will motivate some and at the same time confirm to many Conservatives there is a glimmer of hope sometimes.
Some seem to think this will catalyze a great majority but I am not so sure.
I know the extremes on both sides get behind but I don't think every Dem likes the idea of killing babies.

quote:

Originally posted by gw3971:
What does it matter if the left gets excited? These idiots got excited over the Russia collusion BS and ten other made up issues. The left will invent something to whip their idiots into a voting frenzy so we might as well win worthwhile moral fights.

I agree