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Coin Sniper
Picture of Rightwire
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I keep going back to an old saying that is to the effect of "war is diplomacy by other means"

I wonder if this little incursion into Ukraine is a simple reunification effort. Or is this the first move in a much larger economic/social/global effort. This move, in and of itself is meaningless, it is the predictable reaction to the event that is the real goal.




Pronoun: His Royal Highness and benevolent Majesty of all he surveys

343 - Never Forget

Its better to be Pavlov's dog than Schrodinger's cat

There are three types of mistakes; Those you learn from, those you suffer from, and those you don't survive.
 
Posts: 38478 | Location: Above the snow line in Michigan | Registered: May 21, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Nullus Anxietas
Picture of ensigmatic
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Dear Vlad,

You screwed-up.

Sincerely,
ensigmatic

quote:

Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice
by US-China Perception Monitor March 12, 2022March 12, 2022 Commentaries

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor’s Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor. To read more by Hu, click here to read his article on “How did Deng Xiaoping coordinate domestic and international affairs?”

Written on March 5, 2022. Translated by Jiaqi Liu on March 12, 2022.


The Russo-Ukrainian War is the most severe geopolitical conflict since World War II and will result in far greater global consequences than September 11 attacks. At this critical moment, China needs to accurately analyze and assess the direction of the war and its potential impact on the international landscape. At the same time, in order to strive for a relatively favorable external environment, China needs to respond flexibly and make strategic choices that conform to its long-term interests.

Russia’s ‘special military operation’ against Ukraine has caused great controvsery in China, with its supporters and opponents being divided into two implacably opposing sides. This article does not represent any party and, for the judgment and reference of the highest decision-making level in China, this article conducts an objective analysis on the possible war consequences along with their corresponding countermeasure options.
Full article: Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice

It is unclear to me whether this is Beijing's official position, whether Beijing asked the author for an analysis, or just what this is, but the analysis doesn't bode well for Putin, in any event.

(Btw: Not to toot my own horn, but I could almost have written Part I on Day 1. Main difference being I had not expected Putin's army to perform so abysmally. I expected him to occupy Ukraine in short order.)



"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
"If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
 
Posts: 26032 | Location: S.E. Michigan | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of CQB60
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A very good thesis. Points with high degree of both potential and accuracy.
quote:
Originally posted by ensigmatic:
Dear Vlad,

You screwed-up.

Sincerely,
ensigmatic

quote:

Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice
by US-China Perception Monitor March 12, 2022March 12, 2022 Commentaries

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor’s Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor. To read more by Hu, click here to read his article on “How did Deng Xiaoping coordinate domestic and international affairs?”

Written on March 5, 2022. Translated by Jiaqi Liu on March 12, 2022.


The Russo-Ukrainian War is the most severe geopolitical conflict since World War II and will result in far greater global consequences than September 11 attacks. At this critical moment, China needs to accurately analyze and assess the direction of the war and its potential impact on the international landscape. At the same time, in order to strive for a relatively favorable external environment, China needs to respond flexibly and make strategic choices that conform to its long-term interests.

Russia’s ‘special military operation’ against Ukraine has caused great controvsery in China, with its supporters and opponents being divided into two implacably opposing sides. This article does not represent any party and, for the judgment and reference of the highest decision-making level in China, this article conducts an objective analysis on the possible war consequences along with their corresponding countermeasure options.
Full article: Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice

It is unclear to me whether this is Beijing's official position, whether Beijing asked the author for an analysis, or just what this is, but the analysis doesn't bode well for Putin, in any event.

(Btw: Not to toot my own horn, but I could almost have written Part I on Day 1. Main difference being I had not expected Putin's army to perform so abysmally. I expected him to occupy Ukraine in short order.)


______________________________________________
Life is short. It’s shorter with the wrong gun…
 
Posts: 13873 | Location: VIrtual | Registered: November 13, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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^^^^^^^^
Thank you for posting this link. Intelligent analysis of the situation.
 
Posts: 17703 | Location: Stuck at home | Registered: January 02, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Nullus Anxietas
Picture of ensigmatic
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What I think most noteworthy about it is the recommendations of what should be China's responses.



"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
"If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
 
Posts: 26032 | Location: S.E. Michigan | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
^^^^^^^^^^
I agree.
 
Posts: 17703 | Location: Stuck at home | Registered: January 02, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
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The Professors take on US / Russia / China is well thought out. I hope his government pays attention to it.


End of Earth: 2 Miles
Upper Peninsula: 4 Miles
 
Posts: 16563 | Location: Marquette MI | Registered: July 08, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Left-Handed,
NOT Left-Winged!
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I'm willing to believe that Russia nuclear arsenal may be in a state of disrepair like everything else in their military seems to be. Those ICBM's are old, and having complex machines sitting around doing nothing for decades is a great way make them fail to function when needed.

I'm sure Putin thinks they will work fine, but corruption within the severely underpaid military may have led to a lot of corner cutting.

I envision a full scale launch to look like the montage of all the failed rocket launches in "The Right Stuff".

I also thought of a black comedy movie where the US and Russia launch a limited nuclear exchange, and nothing works. Missiles explode in the silos, go out of control in flight, MIRV's fail to MIRV, and the warheads that reach the target are duds. Then the two leaders get on the red phone and ask "Time-out? What do we do now? A do-over? Or just call it even?"
 
Posts: 5039 | Location: Indiana | Registered: December 28, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Coin Sniper
Picture of Rightwire
posted Hide Post
Two and half weeks into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I get an email from France announcing their surrender.

In addition, this update:





Pronoun: His Royal Highness and benevolent Majesty of all he surveys

343 - Never Forget

Its better to be Pavlov's dog than Schrodinger's cat

There are three types of mistakes; Those you learn from, those you suffer from, and those you don't survive.
 
Posts: 38478 | Location: Above the snow line in Michigan | Registered: May 21, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Seeker of Clarity
Picture of r0gue
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quote:
Originally posted by Lefty Sig:
I envision a full scale launch to look like the montage of all the failed rocket launches in "The Right Stuff".


The Russians, if nothing else, are quite good at pushing rockets into space. I wouldn't bank on them not flying. Whether the warheads work or not may be another question. But I do believe they'd fly.




 
Posts: 11474 | Registered: August 02, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
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quote:
I'm willing to believe that Russia nuclear arsenal may be in a state of disrepair like everything else in their military seems to be. Those ICBM's are old, and having complex machines sitting around doing nothing for decades is a great way make them fail to function when needed.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I don't want to find out. I know when the USSR was dissolved many of the missile sites were in disrepair. All they need is one. Additionally if several are fired it is not like we have lots of time to decide how to respond. I would bet that their submarines are in good shape and they have nuclear capability as well.
 
Posts: 17703 | Location: Stuck at home | Registered: January 02, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
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Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly placed one of his top intelligence officials on house arrest, possibly seeking to shift blame for a Ukrainian invasion.

As per WGN chicago.
 
Posts: 17703 | Location: Stuck at home | Registered: January 02, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Gracie Allen is my
personal savior!
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^^ There were a few articles about that online a couple of days ago. The reason Putin gave is that the FSB honcho failed to give him good enough information when Putin was mulling over the invasion of Ukraine.

I still haven't come across a source that indicates whether or not this was the FSB guy who was stammering, stuttering, hedging and sweating when Putin asked him on (Russian) national TV whether Putin should recognize the two 'people's republics' he fostered in Ukraine as sovereign nations.
quote:
Originally posted by Lefty Sig:
I'm sure Putin thinks they will work fine, but corruption within the severely underpaid military may have led to a lot of corner cutting.

Wouldn't this be an interesting time for Putin to suddenly find himself contemplating Saddam Hussein's WMD programs?
 
Posts: 27313 | Location: Deep in the heart of the brush country, and closing on that #&*%!?! roadrunner. Really. | Registered: February 05, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici
Picture of ChuckFinley
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China has played Putin like Sauron used Sauruman.




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"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." -- C.S. Lewis
 
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Peace through
superior firepower
Picture of parabellum
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Say what?
 
Posts: 110088 | Registered: January 20, 2000Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of 2BobTanner
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quote:
Originally posted by YooperSigs:
The Professors take on US / Russia / China is well thought out. I hope his government pays attention to it.


I know nothing about the author, nor the website and organization identified, but if the author is who he is as identified, then he probably has behind-the-scene political connections to the ChiCom govt. This could be a “let’s run it up the flagpole to see you salutes it” kind of article in order to get the “official” ChiCom viewpoint out there without causing embarrassment if not accepted. That’s a ploy that has been known to exist in other govts and diplomatic times.


---------------------
DJT-45/47 MAGA !!!!!

"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it." — Mark Twain

“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.” — H. L. Mencken
 
Posts: 2847 | Location: Falls of the Ohio River, Kain-tuk-e | Registered: January 13, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Nullus Anxietas
Picture of ensigmatic
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Or it could be China maneuvering to get better trade terms with Russia.



"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
"If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
 
Posts: 26032 | Location: S.E. Michigan | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
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On a recent program on Russian state television a plan to invade Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (NATO countries) as well as the Swedish island of Gotland was discussed. Russian military talking heads explained how it could be done, and why it would be a good idea to "liberate" these former Russian client states. I saw a clip of the broadcast on twitter and was surprised. I thought this would get more media attention in the US. However there has been almost nothing on it. I did find one article from France24 that confirms the broadcast. Here is the link:

https://www.france24.com/en/li...ives-fears-of-russia

Here is the critical part of the article:
At the start of tensions with Russia over Ukraine in December, a Russian TV programme discussing a plan to invade Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and capture Gotland spooked locals.
 
Posts: 1087 | Location: New Jersey  | Registered: May 03, 2019Reply With QuoteReport This Post
A Grateful American
Picture of sigmonkey
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^^^
Saw that. And with Gotland, control the Baltic. SMH




"the meaning of life, is to give life meaning" Ani Yehudi אני יהודי Le'olam lo shuv לעולם לא שוב!
 
Posts: 44720 | Location: ...... I am thrice divorced, and I live in a van DOWN BY THE RIVER!!! (in Arkansas) | Registered: December 20, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Fire begets Fire
Picture of SIGnified
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quote:
Originally posted by ChuckFinley:
China has played Putin like Sauron used Sauruman.


Maybe… that could be possible- not sure just yet.


Para: LOTR reference





"Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty."
~Robert A. Heinlein
 
Posts: 26758 | Location: dughouse | Registered: February 04, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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