quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
Is Russia really performing as bad as they say?

Yes, they are.

Ukraine invasion hampered by poor Russian vehicle maintenance, claims analyst


This is a common issue in the Russian military. Low quality Chinese-made components are often used, sometimes because of corruption, in Russian military equipment to cut costs, including military radios.

It’s pretty clear was going to happen next.

Kyiv gets encircled to blockade supplies (Power, water food meds ammo).

Their howitzers, rockets/tubes which they drove/towed down from Belarus are positioned for firing now.

Arty rains for weeks until either 1) capitulation or 2) complete destruction.


Seen it before. Everything else is bloviating.

quote:

Kyiv gets encircled to blockade supplies (Power, water food meds ammo).
Arty rains for weeks until either 1) capitulation or 2) complete destruction.

Can't both sides play that game?
I mean the Russians surrounding Kyiv will themselves be surrounded by other Ukrainians outside the circle who can cut supply lines.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

quote:

Kyiv gets encircled to blockade supplies (Power, water food meds ammo).
Arty rains for weeks until either 1) capitulation or 2) complete destruction.

Can't both sides play that game?
I mean the Russians surrounding Kyiv will themselves be surrounded by other Ukrainians outside the circle who can cut supply lines.

Can you tell me the relative size of each force? Including equipment numbers?
Mass has a quality all of its own.

One size has it and the other does not.

quote:

Originally posted by SIGnified:
It’s pretty clear was going to happen next.

Kyiv gets encircled to blockade supplies (Power, water food meds ammo).

Their howitzers, rockets/tubes which they drove/towed down from Belarus are positioned for firing now.

Arty rains for weeks until either 1) capitulation or 2) complete destruction.


Seen it before. Everything else is bloviating.

To quote Chesty Puller, “They've got us right where we want 'em. We can shoot in every direction now.”

Yep. Tank has bigger mass. Hard to hide. Difficult to move quickly. Get's stuck in mud. Gets jammed up in urban environments. Makes easy target.

Person on foot. Small mass. Easy to hide. Agile. Can move quickly through most terrain. Not easily hindered or blocked. Urban area fighting is an advantage. Makes difficult target.

Laying siege puts a large amount of materiel in peril to guerilla attackers, targeted artillery, drones and guided weapons.

An individual trying to hit and run, as well as evade, is much easier than another trying to do that while being hindered with a piece of machinery that requires a good deal of your attention to "defend".


There was this dustup a few hundreds years ago between a superior army some King had, and a bunch of farmers with fewer arms and means.

All the Kings horses and all the Kings men, got they ass beat.

Did you see where Russia says they may not give our astronaut a ride home from the space station? He’s due out in 3 weeks, not sure how many are up there.

I’m not thinking there are many other options?

quote:

Originally posted by sourdough44:
Did you see where Russia says they may not give our astronaut a ride home from the space station? He’s due out in 3 weeks, not sure how many are up there.

Four Americans, 1 German, and 2 Russians.

The 2 Russians and 1 of the Americans were scheduled to rotate out in a few weeks and return to earth on a Russian Soyuz spacecraft, landing in Kazahkstan.

quote:

I’m not thinking there are many other options?

Space X's Crew Dragon has already successfully transported three different crews to the ISS, with two more scheduled for this year. So that would be the most likely backup option.

That's how 3 of the American astronauts and the German astronaut currently onboard got there. Their Crew Dragon is still docked, with them planning to return on it in late April. But it only holds 4.

It would take time to get an unplanned Crew Dragon launch spun up to retrieve the other American astronaut. So most likely they would decide to bump 1 of the 4 astronauts from the planned next Crew Dragon flight to the ISS, which is set to dock on March 31st and return on April 10th, and just have the other American return on that as a passenger.

NASA has at least four backup options for very event. Schoolyard threats from Putin again. NASA is the most obssessive organization I know of.

Man, I thought Balze Halze's Russian and Ukrainian crew had a tough working atmosphere... but being trapped in a tiny space station together with a war going on below them has got to be a stressful environment... little bit like the plot in the movie 2010.

Hope those guys have a good working relationship and can keep the peace until the Americans depart.

The Russian hockey players are still playing. The fans,however are booing Overchin every time he touches the puck.

Ukrainians scavenging ammo and supplies from a destroyed Russian column "thanks to the gifts from Her Majesty The Queen".

Yep.

Russian military working overtime to ensure Ukrainian troops are quickly resupplied.

That's the Red Ball Star Express!

I'll just leave this here...

Putin sent some young lesser trained troops to take Ukraine. We've all seen the clips of them calling home, crying. They describe their complete lack of awareness of what was happening around them. Obviously, this didn't "seem to" go well for Putin. But I'm wondering if perhaps this was a strategic move; to give other nations time to get involved such as to provoke a larger conflict.

Has there been any talk of this? Holding back his best assets, and banking on other nations getting involved? To what end, I don't know. I'm just not able to easily accept the analysis that Russia is so incompetent that they can't mobilize and fight effectively on their own doorstep. That just doesn't make sense to me.

With respect, I'm hoping for the thoughts please from those who've been watching closely and are well read on this matter.

^^^^
As I’ve said, a good chess player sacrifices the pawns first. The untrained conscripts, the older machines of war, etc. to try and use up the enemy’s dwindling resources and manpower. The wildcards will be the resupply of more modern weapons and ammunition as well as what will eventually become an insurgency if Putin really pushes for occupation. Much like what we saw in Iraq; snipers, IED’s, car bombs and the like. There has been obvious actual Russian troop involvement and I’m pretty certain all of the air power used thus are Russian assets. If the Ukrainians can be continually supplied with manpads and effective armor killing ATGM’s, they might have a chance to hold off a full scale invasion/occupation.

quote:

Originally posted by SIGnified:
It’s pretty clear was going to happen next.

Kyiv gets encircled to blockade supplies (Power, water food meds ammo).

Their howitzers, rockets/tubes which they drove/towed down from Belarus are positioned for firing now.

Arty rains for weeks until either 1) capitulation or 2) complete destruction.


Seen it before. Everything else is bloviating.

This is exactly right. It's the Russian equivalent of a medieval siege.

It's not going to be pretty.

quote:

Originally posted by r0gue:


Putin sent some young lesser trained troops to take Ukraine. We've all seen the clips of them calling home, crying. They describe their complete lack of awareness of what was happening around them. Obviously, this didn't "seem to" go well for Putin. But I'm wondering if perhaps this was a strategic move; to give other nations time to get involved such as to provoke a larger conflict.

Has there been any talk of this? Holding back his best assets, and banking on other nations getting involved? To what end, I don't know. I'm just not able to easily accept the analysis that Russia is so incompetent that they can't mobilize and fight effectively on their own doorstep. That just doesn't make sense to me.

With respect, I'm hoping for the thoughts please from those who've been watching closely and are well read on this matter.

Putin sent in a force comprised of conscripts and more seasoned contract soldiers.

The simplest answer as to why is because he had to. The Russian Army is not nearly as big as it used to be. They could not mobilize a force as large as they thought they needed without swelling their ranks with conscripts.

The Russian Army is deploying some older kit. Once again, they had to as there is not enough of the latest stuff to re-equip all of their combat elements.

The original Russian plan was a disaster. They did not expect the Ukrainians to put up much resistance. Obviously they got that one wrong.

As that initial plan did not exactly work out, they are now regrouping and resorting to heavy firepower and less regard for civilian casualties.

A wish the Ukrainians well here. I hope they make Russia feel pain every step of the way but their cities are slowly being encircled and strangled/bludgeoned.

The Russians might be able to take these cities but I question if they can hold them.

I don't think they can in the medium to long term.

quote:

Originally posted by SIGnified:
It’s pretty clear was going to happen next.

Kyiv gets encircled to blockade supplies (Power, water food meds ammo).

Their howitzers, rockets/tubes which they drove/towed down from Belarus are positioned for firing now.

Arty rains for weeks until either 1) capitulation or 2) complete destruction.


Seen it before. Everything else is bloviating.

at least three foreseeable problems with this strategy (which i agree is what we are likely looking at)

one, what does history tell us about the effectiveness of drone warfare on the encircling forces? very little. drone strikes have been incredibly effective. there is history being made here in that regard.

two, the siege strategy also pre-disposes a healthy supply of ammunition, adroit logistics and trained crews firing from 'protected' positions. Russia's forces are being heavily attritted. We are not talking about the massive foe of cold war USSR. This is Russia. Basically a third world economy now under heavy sanction. Their resources are not endless and they have used a lot already with very little success. (relatively speaking)

lastly, after significant killing and destruction to the civilian populace -- i simply don't see Ukraine surrendering. bombings like the ones on the hospitals, schools and evacuation corridors was a massive PR failure by the Russians.

So far we have seen Russia be very unsuccessful at their attempts to take Ukraine. I'm not seeing their capacity to suddenly -- after significant damage -- get their act together.

here is an up to date list of equipment losses.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/...nting-equipment.html

We shall see.

----------------------------------

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:
^^^^
As I’ve said, a good chess player sacrifices the pawns first. The untrained conscripts, the older machines of war, etc. to try and use up the enemy’s dwindling resources and manpower.

Whereas Robert Terkla on Speak The Truth says a good military commander sends his best troops and equipment in first, then uses the lesser-trained troops and lesser equipment to hold the territory gained so their betters can continue pressing the attack.

One of Putin's biggest problems in prosecuting the attack on Ukraine has been logistics--in part because they're not holding MSRs they "take."

It might be Putin's army isn't as powerful as he thought it to be. There's been a lot of talk of corruption in Ukraine, but little (no?) talk of the depth of corruption in Russia. From all accounts, Ukraine has nothing on Russia in that respect.

It could well be Putin's commanders have been lying to him about Russia's military's readiness. It could be much of what was supposed to go into equipment and training in fact went into ministers' and commanders' pockets. In fact, just yesterday the national anti-corruption office of Ukraine sent an open letter of thanks to Sergey Shoygu, Minister of Defense, Russian Federation, for having pilfered from his own office for years, making it easier for Ukraine to defend themselves.