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Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
If anything, the repression of dissent in Russia and the language coming out of the Russian minister for foreign affairs and the state-controlled media suggest that Putin's already decided to double down on his efforts.

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Ukraine’s 'iron general' is a hero, but he's no star
Meet Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, the commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who's quietly leading the fight against Russia's invaders.

Washington, Moscow and most of the world expected Russia to demolish Ukraine’s military within days.

But not Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, the commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who has orchestrated and led the fight that has left Russian forces bloody, beaten and in messy retreat.

If a single person can be credited with Ukraine’s surprising military successes so far — protecting Kyiv, the capital, and holding most other major cities amid an onslaught — it is Zaluzhnyy, a round-faced 48-year-old general who was born into a military family, and appointed as his country’s top uniformed commander by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July 2021. Zaluzhnny and other Ukrainian commanders had been preparing for a full-on war with Russia since 2014.

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Originally posted by PASig:
Seems to me the Germans don’t really want to give anything to Ukraine after all, I still think they’re scared to death of being totally cut off from Russian natural gas and oil:


German Defense Minister: No More Bundeswehr Weapons For Ukraine

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Originally posted by Il Cattivo:

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Originally posted by bigdeal:
Do you think its a smart decision to continue to ramp up this amount of pressure on Russia without providing them 'any' offramp(s)?

As far as anyone can tell, Putin has shown absolutely no interest in offramps. If anything, the repression of dissent in Russia and the language coming out of the Russian minister for foreign affairs and the state-controlled media suggest that Putin's already decided to double down on his efforts.

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Originally posted by Lefty Sig:
They are probably starting a crash program to get the nuclear plants back on line ASAP.

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Originally posted by bigdeal:
...no one is really seeking or pushing for a solution or non-violent end to this situation...they just might push Putin into a position where he lets a nuclear weapon off its chain.

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Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
Even now, the Ukrainians have held several direct peace talks with the Russians and the Russians have demanded abject surrender every time. That's why the Ukrainians are fighting.

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As for nukes, Putin's threatened to use them or hinted at being willing to use them so many times that he's actually beginning to lose his credibility on the subject. If we allow Putin to consistently control so many other people's decisions by threatening to use nukes, then sooner or later Putin will insist that everything will trigger nuclear war.

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He's not entirely certain to achieve the newly-revised victory conditions, either, since his military, his weapons, and his ability to deploy them are still bad enough to make Russia a world-wide laughing stock. Basically he's in a bad enough mess to make a whole lot of incredibly bad decisions regardless of what we do or don't do.

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Originally posted by bigdeal:
If the US put huge pressure on Ukraine behind the scenes

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And if we (the US) keep acting like a moron

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All the more reason to find a way to allow Putin an off ramp

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Perpetuating this 'war' accomplishes nothing for anyone.

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Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
Why would we do that? To secure peace with Putin on any terms the Ukrainians can manage is merely to postpone a resumption of war until Putin can regroup, reorganize and re-equip.

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At the same time, what is so important to the US that they should force a sovereign country to give up either territory or autonomy?

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The fact that Putin's making threats like a terrified 12 year old? And when exactly do we stop jumping to obey every time Putin feels like threatening to use nukes?

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Please tell me exactly how we're going to squeeze Putin into having no alternative but to do something stupid? HE'S the one who keeps positioning himself that way anyway!

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No, that's just a kneejerk response. You can create an offramp but you can't make a Russian see it; you may be able to lead a Russian to an offramp but you can't make him take it. The point I made is that we cannot control his behavior, not that we should just throw up our hands, assume an air of martyrdom, and declare ourselves utterly helpless every time he makes a threat.

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Second of all, it would be more than just nice to see Putin's aggression and the gross suffering and destabilization it's caused come to an end.

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Third, millions of people from the Baltics to Moldova see themselves as next which means that if Putin wins then the war expands rather than ends.

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Fourth, aren't you being incredibly freaking patronizing (not to mention sanctimonious) when you talk about wrecking Ukraine and scattering its people and then airily decide that Ukraine can just 'take one for the team'? And just what 'team' are they supposed to be on anyway if the rest of us do nothing for them when they've been subjected to a series of unprovoked attacks?

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Originally posted by PASig:
Seems to me the Germans don’t really want to give anything to Ukraine after all, I still think they’re scared to death of being totally cut off from Russian natural gas and oil:


German Defense Minister: No More Bundeswehr Weapons For Ukraine

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Originally posted by Gocad:

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Originally posted by PASig:
Seems to me the Germans don’t really want to give anything to Ukraine after all, I still think they’re scared to death of being totally cut off from Russian natural gas and oil:


German Defense Minister: No More Bundeswehr Weapons For Ukraine

Eh, that's probably more related to the not very optimal supply situation of the German Army itself.

All the talk about 100 Billion with people expecting a huge bildup of units and equipment is getting away from the point that they would rather need that money to afford the troops they currently have.

And no, that's not really a secret

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Originally posted by Gocad:
Eh, that's probably more related to the not very optimal supply situation of the German Army itself.

All the talk about 100 Billion with people expecting a huge bildup of units and equipment is getting away from the point that they would rather need that money to afford the troops they currently have.

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Weapons for Ukraine

The German Government’s Hesitance over the War Is Angering Allies

Berlin has refused to go along with a gas embargo against Russia and it has been slow with weapons deliveries for Ukraine. The atrocities in Bucha are creating additional pressure for the German government to act.

By Giorgos Christides, Matthias Gebauer, Konstantin von Hammerstein, Martin Hesse, Steffen Lüdke, Ralf Neukirch, Jan Petter, Marco Schulz und Gerald Traufetter

08.04.2022, 18.15 Uhr

A state secret. It can be seen behind the security gate of the Marie Elisabeth Lüders Building, one of the many offices in Berlin of the German parliament, the Bundestag. Mobile phones and digital watches are prohibited in parliament’s Secret Protection Unit. Anyone who wants to read confidential documents here has to turn in their notes after reading them. They are kept locked until the next visit.

Members of parliament often send their staff to the room if they have the appropriate security clearance. But the document currently displayed in the red folder is classified as being so secret by the federal government that only the parliamentarians themselves are allowed to read it.

Under no circumstances should it be disclosed what weapons and equipment German has supplied to Ukraine so far. The list last got updated on Thursday. A selection of the things listed includes: 500 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, 2,700 Strela surface-to-air missiles from former East German stocks, 3,000 anti-tank guns, 100 MG 3 machine guns, 16 million rounds of ammunition for various types of hand-held weapons and hundreds of anti-tank mines.

Also: 80 armored all-terrain vehicles, 50 medical Unimog trucks, 14 pallets of medical supplies, half a million one-man packs of rations, four drone defense systems, plus night vision equipment and binoculars.

"If we do not talk publicly about the type and number of weapons supplied, there is a good reason for that," German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht of the center left Social Democrats (SPD) said on Wednesday, justifying the secrecy. "Ukraine specifically asked for that. And we’re sticking to it."

She could have guessed that Andriy Melnyk would contradict her. "That’s not true," the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany said on a popular political talk show on the public broadcaster ARD that same evening. And unfortunately, he added, there is "no open dialogue about what we need."

Melnyk knows how to put the Germans on the defensive. But sources in Lambrecht’s ministry defended their boss, saying that the Ukrainian deputy defense minister had explicitly warned against reports of arms deliveries at the end of March. That kind of information, after all, could help the Kremlin to "target its military actions more precisely."

Massive Pressure on Berlin

But by then, it was already too late. Once again, the German government had become the target of deep criticism. The Russian war against Ukraine is now entering its seventh week, and it has also left its mark on Berlin. Things are not going well for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his defense minister.

At the beginning of the war, Scholz was celebrated internationally for his speech in which he declared that the invasion was a "watershed" - and for completely reorienting German defense and foreign policy. The dramatic shift also raised hopes among Germany’s allies. Arms deliveries to Ukraine and a massive rearmament program for the Bundeswehr – it at last seemed as though the Germans were claiming a leading role for themselves in European security policy

Six weeks later, though, that elation has all but evaporated. Indeed, Scholz and his government are viewed internationally as standing in the way of more proactive steps.

The horrific images from Bucha, the reports of rape, murder and looting by Russian soldiers, but also the increasingly fascistic tones coming out of Moscow, have once again ratcheted up the pressure on Germany.

"It is clear that Germany can do more," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said at the NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on Thursday. "There will be no more Buchas," he said, adding that his country needs "weapons, weapons, weapons." Without heavy equipment, he said, Ukraine’s suffering will only be prolonged.

The fact that Germany continues to send sums of money in the three-digit millions to Russia each day for gas deliveries can perhaps still just barely be justified. An immediate suspension of Russian gas imports after decades of dependency would likely cause severe damage to the German economy, with incalculable consequences for other European countries as well. Many allies have some understanding for Germany’s reluctance to impose radical energy sanctions, even if that recognition is painful for them.

The restraint could be offset somewhat if Germany were at the forefront of arms deliveries, but there, too, Scholz’s government is hitting the brakes.

But why? Does the government in Berlin fear that Putin might move on his own to cut Germany off from Russian gas supplies? Officials in the Chancellery are deflecting. Sources there say that such fears are not widespread. For one thing, you can’t just instantly turn off gas. Diverting it also isn’t easy and burning it off would endanger the gas fields.

Why, then, is Berlin dithering? Is it because the government, in contrast to the Brits, the Eastern Europeans and the Americans, isn’t counting on a complete victory for the Ukrainians at all? Because they assume that Putin will remain in power and Berlin will have to continue dealing with him in the future? Because Scholz, a member of the Social Democrats, has been unable to completely detach himself from his party’s disastrous love affair with Russia, as the conservative Christian Democrats suspect?

It’s also conceivable that there’s a much simpler explanation. That the slowness in Berlin’s delivery of weapons is a product of German bureaucracy. Because the administration doesn’t like being told how quickly to act it, even in the face of a war of aggression. Because each individual delivery needs to first be carefully checked before it is released.

A visit to Armin Papperger in Düsseldorf provides more insight. The engineer is the CEO of the defense company Rheinmetall. When, immediately after the Russian invasion, the Defense Ministry asked German defense companies to please report what could be delivered quickly to Ukraine, Papperger responded promptly.

Half of the products on the list thus compiled were from Papperger's company - from digitalized, 40 millimeter grenade launchers and ground-based radars to anti-aircraft systems and field hospitals.

But Papperger would also like to supply heavy weapons systems. The Marder infantry fighting vehicle, for example, which is currently being decommissioned by Germany’s military, the Bundeswehr. The old vehicles are parked on his company’s property. The first 20 Marder could be delivered within six to eight weeks, says the Rheinmetall boss, with 50 more to be ready within five to six months. But things are apparently hung up at the Chancellery.

"You have to make a decision whether to help Ukraine unconditionally or not," Papperger says. "We have complete understanding for the fact that NATO doesn't want to step in and provoke a third world war," he says. "But when I see the images coming out of Ukraine, I want to puke. This is a catastrophe right in the middle of Europe."

For defense executives like Papperger, the issue seems quite simple. Ukraine is in great need and his weapons would strengthen the country, so what’s the problem? Leaving aside, for a moment, that it would also be good for business.

Just recently, the CEO says he spoke with the Australian defense minister, who has dispatched five transport aircraft to Ukraine. If the Germans hesitate, Papperger signals defiantly, he could try going through the Australians. Armored trucks, anti-tank weapons, the Marder – Rheinmetall has it all.

Not Without Problems

If only things were that simple, sources in the Chancellery say. And even if Rheinmetall wanted to make deliveries via the Australians, they would still have to be approved by the German government in advance. And such approval takes time.

The Marder example may sound good, but it also isn’t without problems. Despite its advanced age, the system is quite complex. How would the Ukrainians get the necessary training? How would spare parts be delivered? Who would take care of maintenance?

Not only that, but it would likely take months to get them ready for deployment. If Ukrainian soldiers were to end up dying because the Germans delivered junk, it wouldn't likely be Rheinmetall's problem. The government in Berlin would have to bear responsibility.

The message from the Chancellery is clear: "Why the rush?" After all, the 100 tanks in question are not decisive for the outcome of the war. They say the inquiry about the Marders first came in last Friday and that they are carefully reviewing it now. But it is already foreseeable how this review will likely end, and it doesn’t look good for Papperger.

Those close to Scholz give the impression that the chancellor isn’t interested in taking part in a race to see who can deliver the most weapons the fastest. Germany can’t win, anyway, they say. And what Germany is doing still measures up pretty well against what countries like France and Britain have contributed.

[...]

At the same time, the German government is not as isolated on the issue of energy sanctions as some partners like to portray it. In Berlin, there are complaints that some EU countries are encouraging the Germans behind closed doors not to budge on the issue of an oil and gas embargo. But speaking to their own domestic press, they then demand tough action against Russia.

French President Emmanuel Macron, for example, publicly supports an oil embargo. But during a confidential meeting with his counterparts from the other EU countries, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire warned of a rise in oil prices shortly afterward, according to participants. He said that would be dangerous because of the resentment the development would likely stir among the public.

There are reservations in numerous countries about banning energy imports from Russia. Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria would be unable to replace supplies from Russia in the short term. Italy covers 42 percent of its total demand for gas through Russia, with around 30 billion cubic meters coming from the country each year.

Still, calling others out for their inconsistencies isn’t really going to help Germany much in Brussels. If you want to lead, you don’t complain about others hiding behind you.

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Originally posted by Il Cattivo:

Well, first of all the Ukrainians seem pretty unanimous in disagreeing with you. They seem to like self-governance and the degree of liberty that comes with it. Second of all, it would be more than just nice to see Putin's aggression and the gross suffering and destabilization it's caused come to an end. Third, millions of people from the Baltics to Moldova see themselves as next which means that if Putin wins then the war expands rather than ends. Fourth, aren't you being incredibly freaking patronizing (not to mention sanctimonious) when you talk about wrecking Ukraine and scattering its people and then airily decide that Ukraine can just 'take one for the team'? And just what 'team' are they supposed to be on anyway if the rest of us do nothing for them when they've been subjected to a series of unprovoked attacks?

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Originally posted by bigdeal:

Two, and let's be honest and call things what they really are for a change. The moron administration likes to use the term "Economic sanctions" to dishonestly hide what that behavior really is....an act of war. Trying to damage and destabilize a country is most assured an act of war, no different than putting troops on the ground in Ukraine. Next, providing satellite recon to the Ukrainians, allowing them to place bullseyes on Russian soldiers and ordnance is also an act of war. The only thing we don't have occurring (as best we know) is American soldiers on the ground and jets in the air (though the morons in Washington keep pushing for this) actively killing Russian assets. Putin thank god has so far opted to turn a blind eye to all of this, though at any time that could change. And when it does, you can rest assured the morons in Washington will once again screw everything up and put the US once again in the worst possible position.

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Originally posted by ensigmatic:
P220 Smudge: That's hilarious

This is a fascinating read (shared by David Petraeus on LinkedIn):

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Ukraine’s 'iron general' is a hero, but he's no star
Meet Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, the commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who's quietly leading the fight against Russia's invaders.

Washington, Moscow and most of the world expected Russia to demolish Ukraine’s military within days.

But not Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, the commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who has orchestrated and led the fight that has left Russian forces bloody, beaten and in messy retreat.

If a single person can be credited with Ukraine’s surprising military successes so far — protecting Kyiv, the capital, and holding most other major cities amid an onslaught — it is Zaluzhnyy, a round-faced 48-year-old general who was born into a military family, and appointed as his country’s top uniformed commander by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July 2021. Zaluzhnny and other Ukrainian commanders had been preparing for a full-on war with Russia since 2014.

Full article: Ukraine’s 'iron general' is a hero, but he's no star

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Originally posted by BansheeOne:


Why, then, is Berlin dithering? Is it because the government, in contrast to the Brits, the Eastern Europeans and the Americans, isn’t counting on a complete victory for the Ukrainians at all? Because they assume that Putin will remain in power and Berlin will have to continue dealing with him in the future?

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Originally posted by bigdeal:
Perhaps, but you ever heard of re-grouping and planning appropriately to deal with Russia across the next few years before any addition forays into other countries occurs?

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And if Russia were to take all of Ukraine right now (which I do not believe need happen), they're likely too weakened and financially drained to take on any other military operations right now.

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We're playing this from behind, way behind, and its draining us as well as Russia in the process, while destroying Ukraine.

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an act of war.

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Next, providing satellite recon to the Ukrainians, allowing them to place bullseyes on Russian soldiers and ordnance is also an act of war.

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Putin thank god has so far opted to turn a blind eye to all of this, though at any time that could change.

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Hmmmm, I don't suppose the US has ever suggested a country, oh say like Israel, hand over parts of its territory to the Palestinians to try and keep the peace.

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And given US investment in Ukraine to dare, they are sovereign in name only at this point.

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12 year olds do not have nuclear weapons, and we stop jumping every time Putin threatens something when we start acting intelligently and position him where the US has him by the short hairs.

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Oh I don't know, maybe the morons in Washington calling publicly for Putin's assassination and his overthrow as the current leader of Russian might cause the man a bit of consternation.

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As to squeezing Putin, read what I wrote above and then discard it given the morons in charge are far too stupid to ever consider it.

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You're right. We can't control Putin right now because the morons in control sat on their asses and did nothing for so long we lost all the advantages/opportunities we 'might' have had from taking pre-emptive actions.

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You can't seriously think even a complete failure in Ukraine is going to bring Putin's ambitions to an end. I hope we can agree, the man isn't wired like that.

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Maybe, but likely not now because of the costs Ukraine has inflicted on Russia. Maybe just maybe the US and the Europeans could build a coherent plan to be implemented over the next couple of years to prevent Russia from regrouping and re-visiting their military desires.

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Yeah, I'm going to stop tap dancing around this issue too. I don't give a shit about Ukraine.

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And let's game this out shall we.

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What if Ukraine completely beats Russia back and wins (though I have no clue what winning looks like in this engagement).

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So how does Ukraine get back on its feet?

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And what about the severely damaged Russian economy?

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I'm sure there will be no ancillary impacts on the world economy from the US and the Europeans having wrecked the Russian economy.

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And I'm sure Putin won't use any of that to further manipulate his people into believing that the US and Europeans are trying to destroy Russia and kill its people, which should go a long way toward pushing them back the wrong direction again.

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And won't crippling the Russian economy force Russia that much closer to China and Iran? Is that in the best interests of the US and European countries?

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Everyone needs to take a step back from this, put the emotions on the shelf, and start thinking long and hard about how all of this plays out over the long haul.

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Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
Well, if we follow your suggestions, then we replicate the worst mistakes Biden and his ilk have committed in foreign policy since the beginning of the century. That doesn't sound very promising to me.