Ukraine war: Zelensky admits slow progress but says offensive is not a movie

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65971790

President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged battlefield progress has been "slower than desired", weeks into Ukraine's military offensive to recapture areas occupied by Russia.

"Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now. It's not," he told the BBC.

"What's at stake is people's lives."

Ukraine says its counter-offensive has reclaimed eight villages so far in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk to the east.

Mr Zelensky said the military push was not going easily because 200,000 sq km (77,220 sq miles) of Ukrainian territory had been mined by Russian forces.

"Whatever some might want, including attempts to pressure us, with all due respect, we will advance on the battlefield the way we deem best," Mr Zelensky added.

He reinforced the need for Ukraine to be given security guarantees from Nato but said ultimately the goal was membership of the defensive alliance.

Nato's secretary general made clear this week that no plan was on the table to issue an invitation to Ukraine at next month's summit in Lithuania.

"[Jens] Stoltenberg knows my position," the Ukrainian leader said "We've told them numerous times: 'Don't knock the ground from under our feet.'"

The Ukrainian leader again made the case for Ukraine to receive US-made F-16s and said he believed fighter pilots could start training as soon as August, and that the first jets could arrive in six or seven months' time.

Mr Zelensky was speaking to the BBC to mark a Ukraine Recovery Conference in London focusing on the role the private sector can play in rebuilding his country. He later spoke at the conference, along with UK PM Rishi Sunak.

Ukraine's economy shrank by 29.2% in 2022 and earlier this year the World Bank estimated the cost of reconstruction and recovery at $411bn (£339bn).

The Ukrainian leader told the BBC that the support he needed was not just for recovery but for transformation as well.

On the front line as Ukraine attacks Russian trenches
He said "quick steps" to be done immediately included finding places for people to live, rebuilding the destroyed Kakhovka dam and decentralising the energy network.

"But on the larger scale we are speaking about the transformation of Ukraine," he explained. "This is Ukraine not only with its energy and agriculture and industrial complexes, but with its reforms we can see."

He spoke of "the digitilisation of Ukraine" as well as judicial and anti-corruption reforms.

When I asked him what the endgame of the war looked like at this stage, he made clear that "victories on the battlefield are necessary" and that Ukraine would never sit down with whoever was president in Moscow, if Russia remained on Ukraine's territory.

"No matter how far we advance in our counter-offensive, we will not agree to a frozen conflict because that is war, that is a prospectless development for Ukraine."

Russia announced a few days ago that it had moved tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus and President Joe Biden has warned that the threat of Vladimir Putin using them is real.

So I asked Mr Zelensky if he was worried by that threat.

"Putin has been dangerous for us since 2014 when he occupied the first of our territories," he said.

"He will talk about the use of nuclear weapons, I don't think he is ready to do it because he is scared for his life, he loves it a lot. But there is no way I could say for sure, especially about a person with no ties to reality, who in the 21st Century, launched a full-scale war against their neighbour."

I also asked for his reaction to President Putin telling an international conference in St Petersburg last week that he was a disgrace to the Jewish people. Mr Zelensky lost many of his relatives in the Holocaust, including his grandfather, and it was clear that he was taken by surprise by the question.

He took a deep breath, put his head down and a few seconds later said he wasn't quite sure how to answer the question.

"It's like he doesn't fully understand his words. Apologies, but it's like he is the second king of antisemitism after Hitler.

"This is a president speaking. A civilised world cannot speak that way. But it was important for me to hear the reaction of the world and I am grateful for the support."

He is just stalling until they can blow up the power plant

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:
- I expect this sort of slugging match to continue for another two to four weeks. By then we'll either see a Ukrainian breakthrough, or their offensive will spend itself. Their problem is that both sides know that cutting through Russian-occupied territory to the Sea of Azov is of prime strategic importance, and the Russians have prepared for this with multiple deep defensive lines in the south. Whether they can sufficiently man all those while having to mind a huge frontline along which the Ukrainians can concentrate, now including the international Russian-Ukrainian border in the north, is a question that would arise only after an initial break.

- At any rate I maintain that this is probably the last major offensive of this war, which will set the stage either for a negotiated settlement by 2025 the latest, or else it turning into another frozen conflict in the post-Soviet area.

Well, two weeks of the continuing slugging match have passed. While the Ukrainians have made some minor gains totaling about 110 square kilometers, there has been no decisive breakthrough so far, and they have still committed only the smaller part of their assault forces. By the above reasoning, they will have to decide within another two weeks if and where to use the rest at a promising point; or maybe on a completely different axis like the speculated "right hook" through actual Russian territory at Belgorod in the northeast, turning the Russian flank, which would make their "offensive" so far a mere diversion; or else call off or maybe pause it to hope for another opportunity later this year, like through the draining Karkhovka Reservoir.

From the outside, it's hard to say which of the dents they have made so far would look "most" promising to exploit. In the Orikhiv sector on the axis towards Melitopol, they took two villages, one of which is still being fought over, and depending upon which source you believe they lost four T-72, five to eight Leopards and 15-18 Bradleys just to get there; though some appear to have been recovered for repairs. Moreover, they still have the first line of extensive Russian field works ahead of them in this area. Further to the east in the Vremievsky sector on the Mariupol axis, they made their biggest gains and actually breached some of the prepared defenses. But not much seems to have moved there in recent days, and they are facing a similar problem as in the west: they have so far taken interconnected built-up and wooded areas with infantry-heavy tactics, but would now have to break out into more open terrain crisscrossed by Russian defensive lines.



Some Russian voices, suspicious that their defensive successes so far are too good to be true, already suggest that the "real" Ukrainian offensive will start only in August or September. Their military doesn't seem worried about the Karkhovka Reservoir yet, as they haven't built any defense there and in fact moved troops out of the area to reinforce the front elsewhere, making it look more like the destruction of the dam played into their plans. Yet some sources have pointed out an old road emerging from the bottom which might it make easier to cross than the silt ground elsewhere - though that would be only one narrow path. Meanwhile on the Donbas front in the east, the Russians have actually launched somewhat of a counter-counter-offensive, reversing some of the gains the Ukrainians made earlier.

Nonetheless, indications from Russian media and some of Putin's recent speeches are that they just hope to weather this year's campaign season, then go for some sort of negotiated settlement or at least a ceasefire freezing the conflict largely along the current line of contact. This includes Putin waving the alleged draft agreement they were negotiating with Ukraine last April, and he clearly still hopes for something mandating neutrality and severely restricting military capabilities of the latter; though that's unlikely, and from his words reassuring Russians that no general mobilization is planned, he seems ready to settle for anything that lets keep Russia its current gains.

Which is exactly what domestic hardliners and their Western fanboys fear, who still want Russia to seize at least the entire territory which they officially annexed, plus the Odessa and Kharkiv oblasts, and possibly roll up right to the Polish border just to Show The West. Of course it's also possible that those signals of war-weariness are just another ruse playing to similar sentiments in the West in hopes of Ukraine being pushed into an agreement which Russia has no intention to honor. But that's thinking way ahead of whatever the current Ukrainian effort will bring in the next two weeks to months.

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:
Some Russian voices, suspicious that their defensive successes so far are too good to be true, already suggest that the "real" Ukrainian offensive will start only in August or September.

Which would be quite a gamble, since the infamous twice-yearly mud season starts up again around October. While not quite as bad as the spring thaw, that would still seriously hamper any offensive. Therefore an August or especially September offensive would only have a fairly narrow timeframe for success.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyl...ation-050729059.html

Why sidestep around the issue for the clueless. Just state that they want to vote to start WW3 over a non NATO member

The chatter about an attack upon a nuclear power plant inside Ukraine has ramped-up exponentially of late, and many of us believed the chatter was about the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) but it's not. Turns out it is about the South Ukraine Nuclear Power plant because it is being used to store US/NATO high-tech weapons, and is now the Intelligence HQ for NATO in the war.

The US and NATO are creating all this bluster about invoking NATO Treaty Article 5, "Collective Self-Defense" if there is a tactical nuclear explosion in Ukraine OR IF there is an attack upon a nuclear power plant which causes radiation leakage.

This sounds about right

https://halturnerradioshow.com...-and-intelligence-hq

Some will along shortly to poo poo the source

quote:

Originally posted by oldbill123:
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyl...ation-050729059.html

Why sidestep around the issue for the clueless. Just state that they want to vote to start WW3 over a non NATO member

From the link:

quote:

The US Senate has introduced a resolution which proposes that the actions of Russia, Belarus "or proxy of Russia" be considered as an attack on NATO, if their actions lead to radioactive contamination of the allies' territory.

Source: resolution introduced by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and Democrat Richard Blumenthal, as reported by European Pravda

Details: They note that they were prompted to introduce the resolution by Russia's announced placement of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

Senators noted that this is the first precedent since the collapse of the USSR that Russia has moved its nuclear weapons beyond its own borders, and it is a serious threat to global security amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

It is also clear from the text that the second reason is the unpredictable situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), which is under the control of the Russian occupying forces.

Graham and Blumenthal proposed that any use of tactical nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation, Belarus "or proxy of Russia", or the nuclear facility destruction, which will lead to the entry of radioactive elements into the territory of NATO member countries and cause serious damage, should be considered an attack on Alliance and the reason for the use of Article 5.

"The threat of a use of a nuclear device by Russia is real. And the best way to deter it is to give them clarity, the Russians, as to what happens if they do that. And our message is to those around Putin. That if you do this, if you follow his orders – if he ever gives this, you can expect a massive response from NATO. And you will be at war with NATO," Graham said.

"This resolution [...] is meant to send a message to Vladimir Putin and even more directly to his military, they will be destroyed, they will be eviscerated if they use tactical nuclear weapons, or if they destroy a nuclear plant in a way that threatens surrounding NATO nations. [...] His (Putin's) military risks total obliteration by NATO forces, if they are so reckless and irrational as to resort to tactical nuclear weapons," Senator Blumenthal said.

The senators suggested that the Biden administration conduct appropriate consultations with the leaders of other allied countries and European partners and consider actions to minimise the threat to the civilian population and prepare a diplomatic and military response, "commensurate with the situation".

ROSAL

Belarusian conventional bombs hit Chernobyl, WWIII.
Belarus uses tactical nuke, WWIII.
Russia bombs either nuke plant, WWIII.
Russia uses a tactical nuke, WWIII.
Russia uses tactical nuke on Belarus??
Ukraine does something stupid???

The Biden Admin has successfully restarted the Cold War, complete with Mutually Assured Destruction.

Ah, well I still live close enough to DC that I’d be unlikely to survive long.

He’s lucky to find his butt hole with both hands. It’s time to elect someone younger.

^^^
Don’t forget Russia using tac-nukes on Russian soil against Ukes or Russian separatists. Fallout would most certainly end up somewhere else.

quote:

Originally posted by Marlin Fan:
He’s lucky to find his butt hole with both hands. It’s time to elect someone younger.

I don't think age is the issue here. It's the fact we have a president (small "p" on purpose) who can't go a day without shitting his pants, forgetting what he was SUPPOSED to say, goes off on some unintelligible rant that drops off without one cogent thought, can't go a week without falling down, wonders where his pudding cup is, and pees his pants when he hears the ice cream truck. Oh...and is one corrupt motherfu**er!! President Trump may not be squeaky clean, but C'MON...what is being DENIED here in the court of world opinion and our own government is an abomination!!

President Trump is close to the same age as resident shit-for-brains (78 vs. 81), and out-thinks president two scoops in a second. You would SERIOUSLY deny Donald Trump a second shot at the White House because of his age?? What age did you have in mind? Just curious...

Interesting development. Not saying a coup is developing we'd need much more information.

https://www.theguardian.com/wo...ship-must-be-stopped

quote:

Russia’s FSB security service has opened a criminal case for armed mutiny against Wagner’s Yevgeny Prigozhin after the mercenary chief accused the Russian military of targeting his forces and vowed to “destroy” his rivals.

In an extraordinary series of audio clips released late on Friday, Prigozhin claimed that a Russian rocket attack had killed scores of his fighters, vowing to take “revenge” and “stop the evil brought by the military leadership of the country”.

^^^^ Another article about that.

“There are fears of a coup in Russia this morning as the owner of the Wagner private military Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed his forces have driven into the Russian city of Rostov facing no resistance.

Military vehicles were seen on the streets of Moscow and Rostov-on-Don, where Russia's military headquarters for the war in Ukraine is based, after Prigozhin called for an armed rebellion in direct challenge to the Kremlin.

Prigozhin said his troops crossed into Russia as he called for the ousting of the defense minister and vowed to punish military leaders whom he accused of killing 2,000 of his fighters.

The Wagner chief said his forces would take all necessary steps to topple the country's military leadership. 'We have crossed state borders,' Prigozhin declaimed, 'We'll destroy anything that gets in the way ... We go all the way.' …”

DailyMail article:
https://mol.im/a/12228381

More info in the article.

If the first news reports are correct, we could have a real crossing the Rubicon type moment or Napoleon coming back from Corsica, interesting times we live in.

A Putin-less world would be grand, but I don't think he's going anywhere right now.

Nice thought, though

Sounds like the Rosgvardiya and Wagner are going to have themselves a dance-off.

This could be 1918 all over again...Russia getting out of a heavy-weight war right in the middle of all the fighting, in order to deal with a domestic issue.

Wagner Boss Declares War On Russian Defense Ministry

quote:

There are additional reports of major security reinforcements in Moscow and to a lesser degree Rostov, the latter of which borders Ukraine on the Sea of Azov. Rostov is where Prigozhin and thousands of Wagner fighters are supposedly headed. Once again, everything is very murky right now, so keep that in mind.

I'm going with Putin killing both Defense Minister Shoigu and Prigozhin. One for incompetence and the other for mutiny. Shoigu goes into a meeting and is never seen again, and Prigozhin killed publicly.

Prigozhin Wagner Group has offices in 30+ Russian Oblasts. I wonder how many of his soldiers are scattered amongst the Bratva.

I also wonder if the Bratva are worried about Putin and the war becoming bad for business with so many Bratva released from prison to fight with Wagner dying in Ukraine.

That's not the offensive I was looking for.

Frankly, the whole run-up to this with Prigozhin's video tirades about no ammunition, questioning all and sundry official narratives about the war, capturing regular army LTCs and making them confess that their troops fired on Wagner vehicles, claims of mined egress routes and now rocket attacks on Wagner camps culminating in a call for a "march for justice" which is totally not a coup, immediately followed by social media statements of senior military figures and public declarations of loyality by frontline troops has all been so theatralic and over the top that I can only think it's a staged play to discredit pro-war hardliners and prepare the public for giving up most war aims while cracking down on dissent.

I wouldn't be surprised if by next week there was a ridiculously Russian reality adjustment and the claim that Putin was misled to enter this terrible, terrible war by a small clique of criminal traitors, and there will be a honorable peace shortly. At any rate, now that Putin has called the Wagnerites traitors on national TV, he has clearly hitched his waggon to the establishment vs. the "let's wage a better war" side. Then again I might very well overthink it, and it's actually a real power struggle, or just Prigozhin's giant ego, or just honest wrath about the situation. After all we've been all conditioned to think in conspiracies over the last two decades, much of it emanating from Russia ...

Meanwhile Ukrainians:

https://twitter.com/Kateryna_K.../1672538147501096960

I suppose that's the danger of using mercenaries. They're loyal to the dollar and not the country.

Anyway, about that $6 billion accounting error by the Pentagon...