Whether or not we should be financially supporting Ukraine or who is or isn't at fault are not the big picture at all.

The big picture is the USA is beyond bankrupt. It is quite possible our government has set us up for epic financial disaster with all this debt and monetary policy, and now Ukraine is the final straw.

Our attempts to isolate Putin with embargoes on top of domestic energy policy (kill fossil fuels) encourage foreign powers to bypass us. Our extreme financial weakness makes it possible, and our political circus in DC makes it look like the right time.

I think it is misguided to blame Ukraine, Putin, or the money we've sent to Ukraine for the train wreck we are watching.

What happens if either side wins. Pick your poison.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

quote:

Not sure I’m understanding all the sudden consideration for the Russians here.

What type of "consideration" are you talking about?
Has anyone argued that we should help the Russians?

"Consideration" as in, every time the Russians squeal or threaten, we jump back and try to imagine what we're supposed to do in order to leave Russia feeling (according to them) less threatened. "Help" the Russians is a straw man argument, since that was never the issue.

quote:

quote:

If the argument is that it’s better to let the Russians rebuild the Soviet Union because the world was “more stable then”, I can’t get behind that.

Strawman!

Not one bit of it. They have themselves said that the Soviet Union's falling apart is the key to all their troubles, and their decades-long efforts in Chechnya, Georgia and Moldova as well as Ukraine show that they are actively trying to reassemble, physically at least, the Soviet Union. So, incidentally, do their efforts to support Soviet client states like Syria. The same is true of their unceasing demands that the rest of the world recognize that Russia has a "right" to an exclusive zone of influence around their borders, with the depth and direction in which that zone expands being purely up to the whim of the Russians.

There are more than enough facts right in front of us all that it's actually insulting to claim that Milliron's argument here is a "straw man". There are simply too many blatant facts one has to ignore in order to make that accusation credible for the accusation to be anywhere near credible.

Ukraine 'are already breaking through in Bakhmut', Wagner chief admits

“The chief of Russia's Wagner mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin has admitted that Ukrainian forces have counter-attacked Russian positions around Bakhmut - as the warlord mocked Kremlin defence minister Sergei Shoigu.

'The situation on the flanks is shaping up according to the worst predicted scenario,' Prigozhin said, signalling fresh misery for Putin's troops.

'Those territories, which were taken with the blood and lives of our comrades-in-arms for many months, every day, by tens or hundreds of metres are now being thrown almost without a fight by those [Russian army soldiers] who are supposed to hold our flanks.'

Prigozhin then directly addressed the long-suffering Shoigu.

'Given your super long experience, please can you come to Bakhmut?' he asked sarcastically, poking fun at the defence minister's civilian background in engineering. …”

DailyMail article:
https://mol.im/a/12075935

Russia detains three hypersonic rocket scientists on treason charges

Strange doings.

And if Patriot is indeed capable of intercepting the Kinzhal that’s a valuable piece of information.

“A trio of Vladimir Putin's leading hypersonic scientists have been detained on suspicion of high treason in what fellow scientists have declared a 'witch hunt'

Aerodynamics specialist Dr Valery Zvegintsev, 78, is the latest of three prominent scientists from the Khristianovich Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics in Novosibirsk to be arrested on extremely serious charges.

Zvegintsev, 78, along with Anatoly Maslov and Alexander Shiplyuk, are seen as key figures in the development of Russia's hypersonic weapons programme which is thought to be one of the world's most advanced.

News of their detention on suspicion of high treason comes days after a Russian missile assault on Ukraine's capital was largely ineffective, with Ukrainian officials claiming their US-supplied Patriot air defence system managed to down several of Moscow's Kinzhal - or 'Dagger' - hypersonic missiles, which Putin once boasted were 'unstoppable'. …”

DailyMail article:
https://mol.im/a/12093811

quote:

And if Patriot is indeed capable of intercepting the Kinzhal that’s a valuable piece of information.

The Russians seem to have forgotten that it's not necessary to catch a Kinzhal; you just have to put a Patriot somewhere the Kinzhal is going to be before it strikes a target.

There's a lot of talk going on about that missile duel, based upon impressive surveillance video and statements by both sides. Ukraine initially claimed to have shot down three Iskander ballistic missiles, six of the related air-launched Kinzhal hypersonics, and nine Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea. Later they corrected the Iskanders to long-range SAMs in ground-to-ground mode, and added three Orlan surveillance drones and six Iranian Shahed suicide drones.

Russian milbloggers quoted "sources on the ground" variously saying that a single Kinzhal had impacted between two Patriot launchers, destroying one and damaging the other, or that two launchers and a radar set were destroyed. The Russian ministry of defense eventually stated that Ukraine was overstating shootdowns by a factor of three (generally a good rule of thumb for claims by any side in a war), but also that they destroyed five launchers and a radar.



The US initially said the system had been damaged, and they were assessing whether it could be repaired in place or had to be pulled out; later that there was only minimal damage to one launch vehicle (word is of a mangled cab), and they also backed the claim of six Kinzhals shot down. There is some speculation that any damage, and the apparent ground explosions in the video, are actually from a launch failure and one Patriot burning in, which has been observed sometimes. Two other missiles seem to fail shortly after launch in the full video, too.

Naturally, wonder weapon fanboys on either side are celebrating that the "myth of invincibility" of the opposing system has been destroyed. Meanwhile back in the real world, whatever the details, it seems clear this was a first of its kind ever, a missile system countering a multi-layered, multi-directional attack by state-of-the-art weapons designed to saturate the defenses. This one will be a data trove and reference material for a generation. Also, there was reportedly another massive cruise missile barrage on Kiev today, but as the city doesn't seem widely ablaze, it appears their defense is still working.

quote:

Originally posted by Fly-Sig:
Whether or not we should be financially supporting Ukraine or who is or isn't at fault are not the big picture at all.

The big picture is the USA is beyond bankrupt. It is quite possible our government has set us up for epic financial disaster with all this debt and monetary policy, ...

But due to an accounting error we can send even more weapons to Ukraine!
Yeah!

$3 billion accounting error means the Pentagon can send more weapons to Ukraine

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Pentagon has overestimated the value of the weapons it has sent to Ukraine by at least $3 billion — an accounting error that could be a boon for the war effort because it will allow the Defense Department to send more weapons now without asking Congress for more money.

The acknowledgment Thursday comes at a time when Pentagon is under increased pressure by Congress to show accountability for the billions of dollars it has sent in weapons, ammunition and equipment to Ukraine and as some lawmakers question whether that level of support should continue.

It also could free up more money for critical weapons as Ukraine is on the verge of a much anticipated counteroffensive — which will require as much military aid as they can get. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously said the offensive was delayed because they did not yet have everything they needed.

https://apnews.com/article/ukr...ee9ec611771cfe2a4642

Bakhmut has fallen, while Zelensky is out of the country attending a G7 summit.


Zelensky: ‘Bakhmut is only in our hearts’ after Ukraine loses control of destroyed city to Russia

https://nypost.com/2023/05/21/...oyed-city-to-russia/

Shocking. I never would have predicted such an outcome.

Perhaps some more war propaganda will fix things. Perhaps Biden will throw another few billion US taxpayer dollars at this lost cause, that'll help. Maybe put some more "I stand with Ukraine" bumper stickers on random cars in a parking lot somewhere.

Biden at the G7 summit.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Shocking. I never would have predicted such an outcome.

Well, Russia's only been trying to grab that one small town since July of last year.

So, a victory counts only if it's swift?

I am telling, and others are telling you- the Ukrainians will not prevail in this conflict, and therefore the US Taxpayer money and the US military goods are being wasted. Yet, there you sit, saying "OK, the Ukrainians have lost this city, but it took the Russians longer to win than they claimed it would take."

The longer this draws out the more of our money gets dumped into this black hole, and the more of our much needed and not quickly replaced military supplies are wasted.

I just can't fathom what is going through the minds of Americans who support our involvement in this travesty.

Last Thursday, the AP ran a story headlined, “$3 Billion Accounting Error Means Pentagon Can Send More Weapons to Ukraine.”

There’s a lot of good material in this story about the Pentagon’s crack-addled accountants, and how they slipped a few decimals like everyone does from time to time, but the fact is: this was no mistake. Like mafia accountants, what the Pentagon’s accountants did was go back and re-value all the weapons that have been sent to Ukraine so far at a lower “current value” (who knows) versus the weapons’ replacement value (what they paid for it).

Here’s how the Pentagon explained their brilliant idea that nobody ever thought of before:

“During our regular oversight process of presidential drawdown packages, the Department discovered inconsistencies in equipment valuation for Ukraine. In some cases, ‘replacement cost’ rather than ‘net book value’ was used, therefore overestimating the value of the equipment drawn down from U.S. stocks,” said Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh.

Book value is what’s left after you depreciate the asset. And, it won’t just be $3 billion, either. They aren’t done re-calculating:

A defense official said the Pentagon is still trying to determine exactly how much the total surplus will be. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said the comptroller has asked the military services to review all previous Ukraine aid packages using the proper cost figures. The result, said the official, will be that the department will have more available funding authority to use as the Ukraine offensive nears.

Here’s a simple example: Let’s say Nancy Pelosi tells you to go ahead and take $20 worth of ice cream from her freezer, and hands you her last shopping receipt. You can see from the receipt that it means you can only take a single pint of the special Swiss bourbon-cherry ice cream that Nancy likes. But then you say, hold on a minute, that ice cream is in a fridge. It lost value the moment Nancy’s butler loaded it in the Towncar. You figure Nancy would have to sell the unopened pints on Craigslist as used, for only $5 each.

So instead of just one pint, you grab yourself four pints, two of the Swiss bourbon-cherry plus two of the Argentinian sustainable-chocolate variety.

That’s exactly what the Pentagon is doing, except they’re grabbing F-16s, Patriot missile batteries, and cruise missiles.

Instead of pointing out the Pentagon’s kleptocratic creative accounting, corporate media is framing it as a slapstick narrative, a goofy “accounting error” or a silly mixup or something. You know, the million-dollar-toilet seat kind of thing.

https://twitter.com/Breaking91...414527207243776?s=20

Don’t buy it. They’re crooks, a thousand times worse than tax evaders, stealing from our military inventory, that’s all. Call it what it is.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com...ack&utm_medium=email

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
So, a victory counts only if it's swift?

I am telling, and others are telling you- the Ukrainians will not prevail in this conflict, and therefore the US Taxpayer money and the US military goods are being wasted. Yet, there you sit, saying "OK, the Ukrainians have lost this city, but it took the Russians longer to win than they claimed it would take."

The longer this draws out the more of our money gets dumped into this black hole, and the more of our much needed and not quickly replaced military supplies are wasted.

I just can't fathom what is going through the minds of Americans who support our involvement in this travesty.

Not just money is being wasted. I'd wager >30% of the military hardware is winding up "Somewhere else". Real hard to track weapons in a war. How many weapons/weapon systems will wind up missing? Amazing how much money can be made on the black market. Unfortunately it wont be long before these same weapons are going to be used by a terrorist group.

^^ We've had US military personnel there for months now just to be able to document that military hardware doesn't wind up "Somewhere else". You can wager whatever you want, but, under those circumstances, you kinda have to prove the stuff is getting hijacked and sold off before anyone has any reason to believe that that's true.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
So, a victory counts only if it's swift?

No, but if it takes Russia ten or eleven months to take a town of 72,000 (in peacetime) that lies only a few miles from lines Russia completely controls, then I think its necessary to ask whether Russia actually has the power to win.

You keep saying Ukraine cannot prevail. With "victories" like this, why would anyone expect Russia to prevail if we don't either cut off supplies to Ukraine or force Ukraine to concede? There's simply no reason to hand those clowns a victory like it's some kind of participation trophy.

You are no less entrenched in your position on this mater than I am in mine.

Show me Ukrainian victories instead of slow losses and then there will be something to hang your hat on. Until then, it's a pipe dream to think the Ukrainians will prevail, and win or lose, there is no justification for the United States draining its life blood for the corrupt Ukrainian government.

We're not "handing" the Russian anything, because this is not our fight, though the brainwashing and propaganda has been very effective, no doubt.

Interesting move ahead of the expected Ukrainian counter-offensive today. The "Russian Volunteer Corps" and "Legion Freedom of Russia", two dissident Russian outfits fighting for Ukraine which previously most notably pulled the stunt of walking into a couple Russian border villages, fire some rounds, take some selfies and leave, launched a rather more extensive incursion into the Belgorod region of Russia proper. The claims in the Russian blogosphere that it's a force of up to battalion strength may be panic, but all sides seem to agree that fighting is still going on after several hours, and may continue overnight. Ukraine is cutely saying they have nothing to do with it, and are "watching with interest"; but clearly a private army with armored vehicles of at least company strength isn't going to run around an active war zone and cross an international border that has seen frequent artillery duels after Russian forces retreated behind it last year without some coordination with government forces.

Said blogosphere is pointing out pretty much all the reasons. It forces Russia to shift some of its strained manpower needed to man the defensive lines against the actual upcoming Ukrainian offensive; it detracts from the loss of Bakhmut and Russian claims about destroying Patriots etc. by showing they can't even protect their own border; and as a basic PR stunt, it's a notice that two can play the silly games of Little Green Men, "volunteers" "liberating" breakaway regions (apparently the suggestion of a "Belgorod People's Republic" has been bandied around for a year in a clear comeback to the constructs of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, claiming that they voted to join Ukraine in 1919), etc. If you can use some nutbag dissident Russians to shake enemy morale and the popular impression that this is a faraway war with no effects on actual Russian territory, it's probably worth it.

Legally it's of course permissible; if two countries are in a state of armed conflict, nothing says only the aggressor can invade, but the defender has to stop at the international border. Politically it's dicey. It's not like Russia is going to nuke Kiev over it; their own nuclear doctrine says they'll use that option only if the existence of the nation is at stake, which is not the case if a couple hundred troops occupy some of your villages. Which is indeed a sensible strategy, because nuclear war is essentially about taking the other side down with you. Russia is also caught in its pretensions and warnings that any attacks on the territories it annexed would be regarded as attacks on Russia proper. Yet they don't even control all of the territory they claim, and Ukraine has attacked previously safe locations with Storm Shadow cruise missiles recently supplied by the UK - with no reaponse, because Russia has no means of escalation left below nuclear use.

However, attacks on actual Russian territory might give Putin popular justification for general mobilization on the grounds that the motherland is under threat; something he has so far avoided to maintain popular support. Then again, it would be some months before the additional troops are trained up and equipped, necessarily with kit from possibly the 50s if the activation of T-54/55 tanks from depots as mobile artillery is any indicator. And I expect the Ukrainian counter-offensive sometime between next and the next nine weeks now; the training of Ukrainian crews on Swedish Leopard 2 tanks and CV9940 infantry fighting vehicles reportedly concluded last week with the vehicles now in Germany, crucially completing the battalion with Leopard 2 A6 provided by Germany and Portugal. August would also make the battalion of American Abrams delivered to Germany for training last week and the first 30 of 100-180 older Leopard 1 pledged by Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands plus another 20 German Marder IFVs in addition to the 40 already delivered available, but with the battlefield shaping now going on, I find it unlikely that Ukraine will wait that long to launch and give Russia the opportunity to react.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
We're not "handing" the Russian anything, because this is not our fight, though the brainwashing and propaganda has been very effective, no doubt.

I have a hard time seeing this as anything but a continuation of the Cold War that Putin revived, and we've spent a lot more standing ready to counter Russian aggression since WWII due to Russia's arbitrarily adopting and maintaining a hostile attitude towards us than we've sent to Ukraine.

I find it hilarious that the supporters of US involvement in this East European border conflict point to the "Cold War" of the 20th Century, to contain the Russians who- and here's the best part- you claim daily demonstrate in this conflict how weak they really are; for instance, taking the better part of the year to capture a city. And you guys say this stuff with a straight face, completely unaware of the contradiction in your argument.

And the stuff about how we're helping deplete Russian resources? Good grief! Show me how we are weakening our real enemy in the 21st Century- China. The supporters of US involvement in this ridiculous war are fighting last century's battles while ignoring the genuine threat to the United States.

This is why I say that US supporters of this nonsense have succumbed to the propaganda. What you are doing is harming your own country for no good reason but to support the MIC and fatten the coffers of leftist warmongers, and you are in such a trance, I doubt you'll realize that what you have been told repeatedly is actually true, until it's far too late