Will see cavitto. You have been saying that the Russians have been getting kicked since the get go. With virtually little verifiable and unbiased info coming out of the zone not sure anyone knows really what has gone on to any great degree.

I do not think the Russian's are going great guns on Ukre. They would keep everything in perspective on the global scale like any world power would and should do.

But if anyone thinks the Russians will not get their way in this thing, that is very optimistic imho.

For one, this thing is just giving them the goods on us while we are sucking ourselves dry. How dumb can we be.

quote:

Originally posted by old rugged cross:
How dumb can we be.

That's rhetorical, right?

quote:

Originally posted by old rugged cross:
Will see cavitto. You have been saying that the Russians have been getting kicked since the get go. With virtually little verifiable and unbiased info coming out of the zone not sure anyone knows really what has gone on to any great degree.

I do not think the Russian's are going great guns on Ukre. They would keep everything in perspective on the global scale like any world power would and should do.

I can only invite you to check with any source you like about what the Russians themselves have been saying about events over the last few days.

quote:

But if anyone thinks the Russians will not get their way in this thing, that is very optimistic imho.

Not quite as optimistic as it was a week a go, and far less optimistic than it was at the end of February. I don't pretend to know Ukraine will win, but I can see how it could. OTOH, Russia just doesn't seem to be bringing the resources to bear to turn this around.

quote:

For one, this thing is just giving them the goods on us while we are sucking ourselves dry. How dumb can we be.

So far the Russians are getting a close-up look at only some of the US' weapons, whereas the Ukrainians are making a PhD-level seminar available to us on Russia's ability to mobilize soldiers and on what seem to be all of Russia's weapons as well as Russia's capability to produce both. As someone else pointed out elsewhere, that comes with the added benefit of showing clearly and objectively just how bad Russia's military and weapons are - and therefore how much less of our spending needs to go to defense against Russia. That may have also just upended the world arms market, which translates into our developing more influence in the world at Russia's expense. I understand the risk you're talking about, but to call it "dumb" may be, on balance, an exaggeration.

quote:

Originally posted by wrightd:
What if Russia starts sending their best troops ? Why wouldn't they do that after sending their worst troops, as they apparently currently are, to soften things up ? Russia has some history of sending masses of unprepared soldiers into grinders as one of their SOPs don't they ? If and when they "run out" of those, why wouldn't they send in their best soldiers to seal the deal ? What about that ? I'm sure they have those too like any other developed country.

They already used their best troops...and things didn't work out too well.

Any unit that has Guards in its unit name, signifies an honorific as a top-tier unit; theoretically those units are the best resourced and led. Go through the Order of Battle for Ukraine Invasion and quite a few Guard units participated in the initial invasion. Many of them were destroyed, particularly those in the Northern Axis and as we've seen lately, the Central and Eastern axis.

Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) are an elite within the Army, like most paratrooper units throughout the world's militaries, they maintain a high esprit de corps, distinct culture and specialized skills. The VDV were heavily used in the initial assault on various airfields around Ukraine, particularly the assault on Hostomel airport near Kiev in an attempt to secure an airborne bridgehead. As we saw, while they were able to land, Ukraine forces mauled the VDV and without the follow-up ground forces to reinforce and relieve them (40-mile traffic jam), the VDV were either hung-out to dry or, were forced a hasty retreat within a week of landing. Many VDV units were apart of the northern axis of attack and if not whipped-out entirely, the units were rendered combat ineffective due to their losses. Your see very few VDV personal coming out of Ukraine today.

Rosgvardyia forces, are the National Guard of Russia, a type of Praetorian Guard that reports only to the President. Sort of a separate armed forces, sort of a Gendarmerie/Carabinieri, sort of a political police force. Created to snuff-out any internal political uprising, counter-terrorism and knock-down any protests; they exist as another force against any political descent. They were used in Ukraine to suppress any uprisings in the captured cities, eliminate political opposition and install Russia-friendly political figures. They took a beating around Chernobyl, and have been accused of atrocities in Kherson and Bucha.

Rosgvardiya were also heavily present in the eastern areas the Ukrainians retook in the last weeks, where frontline units were mostly separatist militias from the two Donbas rebel republics; as interior troops with at most some light armor, they didn't fare so well in a conventional military stand-up fight. Ukraine has had much less success in the south where they are facing mostly regular Russian army troops which straight occupied territories that hadn't broken away from Ukraine first. Though as of yesterday, there are also reports of a Ukrainian breakthrough in the Kherson sector along the west bank of the Dnieper River there. Putin's official annexations really seem to have motivated them.

Meanwhile Nord Stream 1 has now stopped bubbling, too. Denmark intends to have a joint investigation with Sweden and Germany. Russia also has the right to investigate by the law of the seas since the pipeline is Gazprom property in international waters (albeit the Danish and Swedish EEZs), but in an unsurprising display of mutual distrust, the Western parties don't want any Russians mucking around the scene with or without official cooperation. Cue competing investigations and possible naval confrontations like after the KAL 007 shootdown off Sakhalin in 1983.

So if I am understanding this correctly there is a likely chance that Biden blew up the Nord Stream Pipeline? Wouldn’t that be considered an act of war?

^^ if anyone blew up my pipeline-I’d consider it an act of war.

“Few nations have as deep a sense of their own history as the Russians. Indeed, it was on the basis of a tendentious tract about the historic 'unity' of Russians and Ukrainians that President Putin justified his invasion of an independent neighbouring state.

But another word, also with great resonance in Russian history, now hangs over the Kremlin's flailing military campaign. And that word is: Mutiny.

Remarkably, it was raised on Moscow's main TV channel last week by the woman described as Putin's propagandist-in-chief, Margarita Simonyan, during the nightly discussion programme on the state of the 'special military operation'.

The striking-looking Simonyan is the head of RT, the Kremlin's English-language broadcasting network (now banned in the UK); but here she was speaking to a Russian audience.

She was raging about the incompetence with which Putin's 'partial mobilisation', announced on September 21, was being carried out, and the gross inadequacy of the provisions being supplied to the hundreds of thousands being called up to fight: 'Students, people with serious illnesses, single mothers, people as old as 62 . . . and being handed rotten things, no helmets or body armour.'

Criticism

She warned the heads of the armed forces: 'Comrade Commanders: don't anger the people!' …”

Full DailyMail article:
https://mol.im/a/11273587

Means, motive and opportunity.

Here is one possibility with some hard data to consider:

"MonkeyWerx

The Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Sabotage

As I sit here with my head on a swivel after the initial SITREP broadcast discussing the findings around this issue, I am thankful that the sea of “Monkey Nation” supporters run deep around the world and that we have so many “trackers” with the ability to do what I do that I know should something happen to me, there are tens of thousands that can continue on with this effort. As it is said, “give a man a fish feed him for a day, teach a man to fish, feed him for life.” I have indeed taught so many enthusiasts around the world how to watch the skies over the past 2 years from YouTube that they could never stop the effort. Thank God for that. Plus, the tools to track just keep getting better and easier - eg SkyGlass.

Okay, let’s dig into what we know about the subject. First and foremost, everything I have shown and discovered is open source - meaning it is available to anyone around the world. I just happen to know where to look and have the tools that give me the opportunity to find the data.

That said, the Russians also have this data and it certainly didn’t help our case that Biden told them we would take the pipeline out should the Russians invade Ukraine. We have seen Biden “slip up” on many occasions so this isn’t a surprise. You would think that the bobbleheads would have at least put someone in the game that would have the cognitive ability to at a minimum play the game, but that clearly isn’t the case.

Here are a few facts about the sabotage:

Biden said we were going to do it

It happened “overnight” on the 26th of September

We have a US Navy P8 fly from the United States to a refueling rendezvous point over Grudziądz Poland at 0210 hrs GMT

The two aircraft, Callsign N/A, and BART12 sync up at 26,400 ft for an extended 1:20 minute refueling, disconnecting at 0328 hrs GMT

The BART12 air refueler RTB’d to Spangdahlem Air Base Germany and one should note the flight record has been wiped

The Navy P8 then continues onto the Nord Stream Pipeline location and descends to an altitude of <10,000 ft at 0345 hrs GMT

The Navy P8 exits the area just prior to 0700 hrs and is the only aircraft over the area the entire time

At 0709 hrs GMT the Navy P8 returns back to the United States. Note: the US Navy P8 HexCode is AE6851 and is NOT listed in the aircraft database. Furthermore, the aircraft flew as “masked” meaning it did not want to be tracked

Datapoint, there were recorded 2.3 magnitude shakes in the area at that same time

The following morning NATO Forces announce that overnight the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline has been sabotaged

A Poland Ministry Official posts a tweet thanking the United States for taking out the Pipeline

On September 29th in front of the UN Security Council a Russian Federation spokesperson presents the known facts and asks the United States representative directly in a yes or no requested response, “did the United States take out the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline” in which the US representative did not confirm nor deny it and didn’t answer the question, but instead took an offensive posture



As we sit here today, October 1, 2022, the United States has no official statement on the sabotage although Biden is pushing the standard doublespeak rhetoric and as they say, the best defense is a good offense. There is, however, an official release from the White House back in February 2022 that states the United States will take further action with Germany to end the Nord Stream Pipeline 2

So let’s look at the flight data logically… The United States has Navy P8’s stationed in the UK so why fly an aircraft all the way from the United States and not land in the UK for refueling, but instead hook up for an hour plus with another US Air Force refueler out of Germany? Could it be that the UK’s new Prime Minister would not condone the activity? We have already seen her call out Nancy Pelosi who we know is a bobblehead and not in line with the New World Order, and we know the new UK PM is indeed a WEF appointee which is part of the NWO. Clearly, the United States did not want to land in the UK or anywhere else for a reason. Could it also be because it was armed with external weapons or they didn’t want any record of the aircraft in the area? Landing would create a log and even though we see them wipe the flight record data, the airport log is still intact.

Let’s talk about the P8 weaponry for a minute. The Navy P8 Poseiden has 11 external hardpoints for mounting weapons as well as an internal bomb bay, and one weapon, in particular, is a High Altitude Anti-Submarine Warfare Weapon Capability (HAAWC) system. HAAWC is an all-weather add-on glide kit that enables the Mk54 torpedo to be launched near or below the cruising altitude of the P8 Poseidon.



What that means: the flight path and altitude of the P8 in question are indeed capable of conducting a “bomb run” on the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline. Now let’s look at the flight specifics. Note the last flight path just before exiting the area runs right along the pipeline in which they could have released the ordinance and continued their climb out, thus exiting the area and returning to the United States. Also, note the little hump just before the climb out (red arrow). That is consistent with a weapons release. Pitch down, increased AoA, weapon release, little bubble up, then a climb out (the blue line is the inbound leg of the same flight). You may also not the flight path. It circles over the area first, then flies downrange and starts the initial bomb run, then it does a quick readjustment on a final bomb run, releases, and exits immediately.


Now I’m not a betting man, but if it sounds like a duck, walks and talks like a duck, then folks, it’s very likely a duck. Okay let us talk about the motive: Why would the United States take out this pipeline? Reason - because it is a very large source of revenue for Russia and the sanctions to date have not worked, in fact, they have backfired on the United States. Also, note the timing as Poland and Norway announce a new Baltic Pipeline just days after the sabotage and the EU has secured a deal with Israel going forward so they will no longer rely on Russia for the gas and oil. We simply waited until everything was shored up and made our move.

Alright, I know I have hit you with a firehose of data for you to mull over and I will leave it to you to decide based on the data presented. One thing for sure, in our current environment this was not a good move and it could very well be what kicks this entire powder keg off. So as always, stay frosty and keep that powder dry.

God bless,

Monkey out. "


MonkeyWerx Blog

So how is Putin gonna get back at us...Oh, that's right, nuke Uke

That's a pretty compelling scenario. I think there is truth in that explanation.

I have to admit, I thought Putin took Biden's goofy hints as an opportunity to cut off the pipeline right before winter while being able to shift blame for freezing people in western Europe somewhere else.

quote:

What that means: the flight path and altitude of the P8 in question are indeed capable of conducting a “bomb run” on the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline.

Four times? With that kind of precision? Without anyone noticing the drops? I am impressed.

I'd still like him to explain what Russian ships were doing in the area, though, and why those ships haven't broadcast to the world that they saw a US Navy plane "dropping bombs".

quote:

Originally posted by leavemebe:
Means, motive and opportunity.

Here is one possibility with some hard data to consider:

"MonkeyWerx

The Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Sabotage

As I sit here with my head on a swivel after the initial SITREP broadcast discussing the findings around this issue, I am thankful that the sea of “Monkey Nation” supporters run deep around the world and that we have so many “trackers” with the ability to do what I do that I know should something happen to me, there are tens of thousands that can continue on with this effort. As it is said, “give a man a fish feed him for a day, teach a man to fish, feed him for life.” I have indeed taught so many enthusiasts around the world how to watch the skies over the past 2 years from YouTube that they could never stop the effort. Thank God for that. Plus, the tools to track just keep getting better and easier - eg SkyGlass.

Okay, let’s dig into what we know about the subject. First and foremost, everything I have shown and discovered is open source - meaning it is available to anyone around the world. I just happen to know where to look and have the tools that give me the opportunity to find the data.

Lots of holes/problems with this 'theory'

1) There were two detonations, 17-hours apart. Looks like four ruptures or, holes in the pipeline have been ID'd to date. Did another patrol plane follow a similar track hours later? 17-hours apart, that's more than enough time to have assets on station of the first location, and the second detonation hasn't occurred yet.

2) Mk54 torpedos while the new bolt-on glide kit is pretty cool, the theory doesn't take into account how targeting is done nor, how does an acoustic homing munition follow a track down to an object that isn't making any noise, not going anywhere or, doing...anything.

3) Since we're on the topic of theoreticals, I'll offer the hydrate plug theory

quote:

I would bet a cup of coffee that any of the required weekly and monthly checks and services since the Russians took over have been pencil-whipped. (See Andreev Bay 1982.)

They officially shut it down in July of 2020 for maintenance, and had cornbread hell getting it back on-line, and “issues” with maintaining flow throughout the next year; shut it down again in July of 2021, with bigger “issues” — we say “issues” because the Russians won’t explain what these issues were — and even more problems, including unexplained, major disruptions in gas flow in Dec21/Jan22; Feb 22; and April 22.

Yeah, there’s problems with those lines. And these are the same folks that PMCS’d Chernobyl.

So. They’ve got pipelines with issues that are currently pressurised (with highly flammable, if not outright explosive, natural gas/methane), but not moving product. It’s time to find out what those issues are.

And they blew up. My shocked face, let me show you it. Next time, tell Sergei to put out the cigarette before pulling a pressure test.

Is there a possibility of sabotage? Yeah. Especially in the current world situation — but folks thought the Kursk went down because of hostile actions, too.

So, yes, hostile actions are a possibility, but mass amounts of explosive hydrocarbon gas + 300 feet down under salt water + shoddy Russian maintenance = “Nobody could have possibly seen this coming”, and yet another entry into the extensive Wikipedia page on “Soviet/Russian disasters”.

“But what issues could happen in an undersea pipeline that could cause ruptures?”

Oh, my sweet summer child. Many, many, many. You might go far as to ask, “What issues won’t cause a rupture in an undersea pipeline?” — It’d be easier to list.

However, in this case involving a natural gas pipeline under the pressure of 300 to 360 feet (8 atmospheres to 10 atm.) of water, I’d like you to turn your eyes towards a fun little quirk of nature called “methane hydrates”.

Well, actually, I’d like you to meditate upon “hydrate plug”, but give me a moment.
....

Part II of the hydrate plug theory
Would be interesting to hear from any members who have experience in oil/gas industry

Seems like we never get to know the truth of things these days. If it was just bound to happen due to issues with the pipeline it was excellent timing.

quote:

Corsair
Snip..
2) Mk54 torpedos while the new bolt-on glide kit is pretty cool, the theory doesn't take into account how targeting is done nor, how does an acoustic homing munition follow a track down to an object that isn't making any noise, not going anywhere or, doing...anything

You do realize that torpedos have active sonar. And can be programmed for lots of things..like loitering, or laying on the bottom and energizing later, or flying preprogrammed tracks…just lots of things.. like laying mines..lurking until a particular screw (pre recorded ship) comes w/I range…

And I imagine a meter sized pipeline might resemble a submarine laying on the bottom…I mean it’s literally a metal tube that’s hollow…

I’m no bomb technician, but I do know how torpedoes work.

quote:

Originally posted by MikeinNC:

quote:

Corsair
Snip..
2) Mk54 torpedos while the new bolt-on glide kit is pretty cool, the theory doesn't take into account how targeting is done nor, how does an acoustic homing munition follow a track down to an object that isn't making any noise, not going anywhere or, doing...anything

You do realize that torpedos have active sonar. And can be programmed for lots of things..like loitering, or laying on the bottom and energizing later, or flying preprogrammed tracks…just lots of things.. like laying mines..lurking until a particular screw (pre recorded ship) comes w/I range…

And I imagine a meter sized pipeline might resemble a submarine laying on the bottom…I mean it’s literally a metal tube that’s hollow…

I’m no bomb technician, but I do know how torpedoes work.

If a modern torpedo can be programed to attack a pipe....sure, why not.

O' beautiful, for spacious skies
But now those skies are threatening
They're beating plowshares into swords
For this tired old man that we elected king
Armchair warriors often fail
And we've been poisoned by these fairy tales
The lawyers clean up all details
Since daddy had to lie
- Don Henley

This nation, and the world, is closer to nuclear war than at anytime since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

If only leftist Don Henley had known at the time he wrote those words that it wasn't Reagan who was bringing us to the brink, but rather this glad-handing Democrat moron from Delaware, a man that nobody could have imagined being president, that is the "tired old man that we elected king" who would be the one.