EDIT: All times below are Central Standard Time. Forgot to include that last night.
Week 12: 7 Big Ten games this weekend including an East West match-up with Big Ten Championship and Playoff implications. Also, several teams fighting to remain mathematically bowl eligible:
Rutgers @ IU at 11:00 AM on BTN - the Hosers are unanimously 11 point favorites. Both teams need to win their two final games to be bowl eligible so whichever team loses tomorrow will no longer be bowl eligible (unless they have to lower the eligibility standard for the 2.5 trillion bowl games). IU is statistically superior on offense and the Scarlet Knights are on defense. As far as common opponents IU lost by less to tOSU, Rutgers lost by slightly less to PSU, IU lost by less to UofM (it went to OT), and Rutgers beat MD whereas IU lost. I think MD is pretty similar to IU so I'm going with Rutgers for the upset.
MN @ #23 NWU at 11:00 AM on BTN - depending on which odds service you believe the Wildcats are 7 to 7.5 point favorites. The Gophers really need to win 1 of 2 for bowl eligibility and NWU is a heck of a lot more vulnerable the WI. As far as common opponents the Wildcats beat MD but MN lost, the Wildcats beat IA but MN lost, the Wildcats beat MSU but MN lost, and both beat NE but MN won by more. I like PJ Fleck, but NWU is going to win and cover.
@24 UofM @ #5 WI at 11:00 AM on Fox - depending on which odds service you believe the Badgers are 7 to 7.5 point favorites. This is the game of the day in the Big Ten, and a great opportunity for the Badgers to make a statement to the playoff committee. The Badgers are statistically superior on both sides of the ball (both teams are excellent on defense), but to be fair UofM really came into their own on offense the past 3 weeks. If you only look at common opponents the past 3 weeks their are a dead heat in their victory over MD. One of the reason for UofM's turn of fortune on offense is Higdon has been rushing well, but he was injured last week and is listed as probable for tomorrow. I'm going with the Badgers to win and cover.
IL @ #9 tOSU at 2:30 PM on ABC - the Buckeyes are unanimously 41 point favorites. This is going to be a track meet for tOSU's QB, RBs, WRs, and DBs (yes, they'll score too). Buckeyes win and cover.
Purdue @ IA at 2:30 PM on BTN - depending on which odds service you believe the Hawkeyes are 7 to 7.5 point favorites. Purdue needs to win its two final games to be bowl eligible. Statistically IA is slightly better on offense and Purdue slightly better on defense. As far as common opponents both stomped IL but IA did by more, both lost to NWU but IA did so by slightly less, both beat MN but Purdue did so by more, and both lost to WI but Purdue lost by less. I'm going with the Spoilermakers to pull off the upset.
MD @ #17 MSU at 3:00 PM on Fox - depending on which odds service you believe the Sparties are 15.5 to 16 point favorites. The Terps needs to win its two final games to be bowl eligible. MD can't play defense and Dantonio is going to use the Terps as a palate cleanser to get the bad taste out of their mouth from last week's curb stomping. Lewerke has another 400 yard pass game and MSU wins and covers.
NE @ #10 PSU at 3:00 PM on FS1 - depending on which odds service you believe the Nittany Lions are 25.5 to 27 point favorites. The Cornhuskers needs to win their two final games to be bowl eligible. PSU kills off NE's bowl hopes, and covers the spread.This message has been edited. Last edited by: tatortodd,
Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity
DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.
Posts: 23817 | Location: Northern Suburbs of Houston | Registered: November 14, 2005
My predictions: IU wins and covers NW wins but doesnt cover Michigan beats Wisconsin OSU wins but doesnt cover Iowa wins and covers MSU wins and covers PSU wins and doesnt cover
"The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits." Albert Einstein
Posts: 8121 | Location: Phoenix AZ | Registered: May 22, 2007
Originally posted by TKO: There is a reason I don't try to make a living on gambling.
I post the odds every week, but I haven't bet on a college game in years and even then the wager was only lunch. I think my last bet was when Purdue played UofM during the RichRod era, and my coworker was a UofM alum.
Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity
DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.
Posts: 23817 | Location: Northern Suburbs of Houston | Registered: November 14, 2005
Originally posted by TKO: My predictions: IU wins and covers NW wins but doesnt cover Michigan beats Wisconsin OSU wins but doesnt cover Iowa wins and covers MSU wins and covers PSU wins and doesnt cover
5 and 2 on winner... only 3 on spread though.
"The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits." Albert Einstein
Posts: 8121 | Location: Phoenix AZ | Registered: May 22, 2007
Week 12 Wrap-up: On my predictions I was 6-1 on win/loss but 3-4 on spread
Rutgers @ IU at 11:00 AM on BTN - boy was I wrong on Rutgers for the upset. IU put 17 quick points on them and just kept extending the lead to a 41 point shutout win. IU kept their bowl hopes alive in a convincing fashion.
MN @ #23 NWU at 11:00 AM on BTN - good game for a quarter then NWU had a 25 point 2nd quarter and added 14 more points in the 2nd half all while their D pitched a shutout. I was correct on NWU winning and covering. MN left themselves in a tough spot needing to beat WI next week to be bowl eligible.
@24 UofM @ #5 WI at 11:00 AM on Fox - excellent back and fort first half. In the 3rd quarter, Hornibrook burned the Wolverines with long passes to AJ Taylor (sophomore WR not the freshman RB) resulting in a touchdown and the Wolverines had to respect the pass. It was a real turning point and the next drive resulted in UofM's freshman QB leaving on a stretcher. The whole game changed after these two drives. Wolverines couldn't do squat on offense with O'Korn as QB, and the Badgers were finally able to open up the rushing game to go along with the passing game. I was correct on WI winning and covering.
IL @ #9 tOSU at 2:30 PM on ABC - Lopsided game in some pretty crummy weather (at least it was crummy when I switched to it after the Purdue game). I was correct on the Buckeyes winning, but they missed covering the monster 41 point spread by 3 points. I had forgotten it was senior day and tOSU pulled most of the starters at the end of the 3rd quarter and took their foot off the gas pedal.
Purdue @ IA at 2:30 PM on BTN - this game put a big 'ole grin on my face. Purdue drew first blood by scoring a TD midway through the first quarter, but in the 2nd got sacked for a safety and gave up a TD drive to go into half-time down 9 - 7. It was all Purdue in the 2nd half putting up 17 points until they gave up a garbage time TD with the god awful prevent defense. Big road win for the Spoilermakers that kept the bowl hopes alive. I was correct on both winner and spread.
MD @ #17 MSU at 3:00 PM on Fox - MSU won but it wasn't pretty on offense. If I was a Spartan fan I would not buy bowl game tickets as getting routed is very likely if they can only put up 17 points against a crummy defense like MD and Lewerke can only manage 20 stinking yards passing. Can't blame the weather either as Bortenschlager threw 6x more yardage. I was correct on winner, but wrong on MSU covering thanks to them giving up a 4th quarter TD.
NE @ #10 PSU at 3:00 PM on FS1 - It was a lopsided game for more than 3.5 quarters, but between being senior day and putting in the god awful prevent defense PSU managed to give up 21 points in 6.5 minutes and fail to cover the spread. I was correct on winner, but wrong on spread.
Kudos: I'm intentionally taking the games out of order here to point out a major accomplishment.
NWU's RB Justin Jackson rushed for 166 yards today which put him over the 1000 yard mark for the season. This makes the 4th 1000 yard rushing season for Jackson at NWU. In the history of college football he is just the second Big Ten player (Ron Dayne) and 9th NCAA player (e.g. Tony Dorsett) to accomplish that feat.
NWU's QB Thorson threw 3 TDs and 0 INTs on only 86 yards passing.
NWU's defense for the shutout with 3 INTs, 2 fumble recoveries, and held MN to 182 yards of total offense.
IU's QB Lagow for 236 yards passing with 2 TDs (1 INT)
IU's RB Ellison for 149 yards rushing with 2 TDs
IU's D for the shutout that held Rutgers to 190 yards of O and forced 2 fumbles
WI's QB Hornibrook. He had a shaky first half, but completely turned around the drive after his 3rd quarter INT and had a great 2nd half of passing that opened up WI's running game.
WI's RB Taylor. Just as the announcers said he was having an off game he popped off a 52 yard run and finished the game with 132 yards of rushing.
WI's entire team. They made a huge statement against a good team in front of a very large audience (only Top 25 match-up of the weekend).
tOSU's QB Barrett had 2 passing TDs and a rushing TD.
Purdue's QB Sindelar had 229 yards passing for 3 TDs and 0 INTs.
Purdue's WR Mahoungou had 7 catches for 135 yards and 2 TDs
Purdue's defense had 6 sacks and several at really key times
MSU's RB Scott for 147 yards rushing with a TD
PSU's McSorley for passing for 325 yards, 3 passing TDs, rushing for 46 yards, and 1 rushing TD
PSU's RB Barkley for rushing for 158 yards and 3 TDs.
Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity
DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.
Posts: 23817 | Location: Northern Suburbs of Houston | Registered: November 14, 2005
Wolverines couldn't do squat on offense with O'Korn as QB,
I know what you mean about the two W drives, Tatortodd, but Peters going out was the real game changer. You could see the wind go out of UM's sails. They have no confidence in O'Korn, and understandably.
If Peters were playing, the game against Ohio next week would be up for grabs. As it is....
Wolverines couldn't do squat on offense with O'Korn as QB,
I know what you mean about the two W drives, Tatortodd, but Peters going out was the real game changer. You could see the wind go out of UM's sails. They have no confidence in O'Korn, and understandably.
They were back to back drives so we'll never know which was more important:
Hornibrook clicked in the passing game and drive ended in TD. Michigan having to respect the pass opened up WI's rushing game.
Peters being carted off the field.
I still believe the WI passing game was more important. At that point in the game, WI's only score was from a punt return and WI was stymied in the run. Afterward, WI's offense had the ball 5 times which resulted in two TDs, one field goal, one punt, and end of game. 89 of Taylor's 132 rushing yards were on these 5 last drives. Pryor, Ibrahim, Shaw, and Groshek also started being effective on the run.
quote:
Originally posted by justjoe: If Peters were playing, the game against Ohio next week would be up for grabs. As it is....
Agreed that the Wolverines don't stand a chance against tOSU with O'Korn as QB. The offense's confidence is so low with him that they even lose the ability to run block and they get fumblitis.
With Peters under center they've had zero interceptions, only had 1 QB fumble (granted it was a key fumble but it's still a hell of a lot less fumbles than O'Korn), they have less sacks, their completion percentage goes up, they rush block better, and their WRs and RBs fumble less. Peters' stats aren't remarkable, but it's amazing how all aspects of the offense click with him. The O getting first downs and putting together drives also helps their D out by giving them recovery time.
Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity
DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.
Posts: 23817 | Location: Northern Suburbs of Houston | Registered: November 14, 2005
UM has not ruled out the possibility that Peters will start next week, pending "tests" this week. If Peters plays there's a (outside) chance for UM, with O'Korn not a chance in Hell.
Michigan's offensive line has been, IMO, the main causes of their weakness. Two quarterbacks (probably) were lost to injuries from vicious sacks. Pass protection is often poor, and there has been little push and opening holes on running plays.
The "rivalry" is losing its sparkle because Ohio State has won 12 of the last 13. For a rivalry to remain exciting, one team cannot just consistently dominate the other. U of M football is just not in the same league with Ohio State football.
If there is ever a throw the records and performances out the door game, this is it.
Michigans last victory was over Ohio State before Urban took over. OSU was barely .500 that year and they needed a late play to seal the victory. The following two years the roles were reversed and the margin of victory was OSU stopping Robinson on a 2 point conversion at the end of the game.
Records and performances just dont matter in this game. Considering how OSU has played this year, I give Michigan better odds than most years. If the OSU that played OU and Iowa shows up.... Nuff said.
"The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits." Albert Einstein
Posts: 8121 | Location: Phoenix AZ | Registered: May 22, 2007
Purdue leads the overall series 72–41–6, but IU has earned the Old Oaken Bucket the last 4 years (aka the dreadful Darrell Hazell era). Time to bring it back to West Lafayette.
Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity
DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.
Posts: 23817 | Location: Northern Suburbs of Houston | Registered: November 14, 2005
Week 13: It's rivalry weekend in the Big Ten football with one Friday game and six Saturday games. Two games have playoff implications, two games feature teams fighting for bowl eligibility, and the remaining games have teams playing for better bowl games.
Friday:
IA at NE at 3:00 CST on FS1 - the Hawkeyes are unanimously 4.5 point favorites in what has been dubbed as the Heroes Trophy. The offensive statistics are misleading as the Cornhuskers rack up a lot of yards against the prevent defense trying to come back from a large deficit. I think the key stat is the Hawkeyes defense gives up on average 2 less TDs per game. Both teams have a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde thing going on, but Mr Hyde appears less often at IA so I'm picking them to win and cover.
Saturday:
tOSU at UofM at 11:00 CST on Fox - depending on which odds service you believe the Buckeyes are 12 to 12.5 point favorites in what has historically been on of the best rivalries in college football and has been dubbed as "The Game." There is still a path for tOSU to the playoffs (beat UofM, beat WI, and some losses by 1 loss teams) so they have some extra incentive. I wish I knew whether Peters would be playing this week (as of Monday was still on concussion protocol) as he is the spark that makes the Wolverine offense go. I'm assuming O'Korn plays the majority of the game, and therefore Buckeyes win and cover.
IU at Purdue at 11:00 CST on ESPN2 - depending on which odds service you believe the Boilermakers are 2.5 to 3 point favorites in the Old Oaken Bucket game. Whichever team wins goes to a bowl game and doesn't have to hope the overabundance of bowl games makes a few bowls accept 5 win teams. Statistically, IU is better on offense and Purdue is much better on defense. As far as common opponents - both lost to UofM but IU took 'em to OT, IU whooped Rutgers but Purdue lost, both lost to WI but Purdue lost by less, and both beat IL but Purdue won by more. In the end, I'm biased and I'm picking Purdue to win and cover.
PSU at MD at 2:30 CST on BTN - the Nittany Lions are unanimously 22 point favorites (can't find a name, but they've played 40 times). MD has a lousy defense and PSU has an explosive offense that can burn you passing or rushing. It's supposed to be mid 50s and zero percent chance of precipitation (learned my lesson not checking weather last weekend) so not only will PSU win and cover, they'll cover by half-time.
WI at MN at 3:00 CST on ABC - depending on which odds service you believe the Badgers are 17 to 17.5 point favorites in Paul Bunyan's axe game. The Badgers need to win to keep they playoff hopes alive, and the Gophers need to win to keep their bowl hopes alive. WI is much better on both sides of the ball. The Gophers have a run happy offense and the Badgers D is good enough to shutdown the run which will leave MN passing to a receiver core missing their best receiver (broken hand). Badgers win and cover.
MSU at Rutgers at 3:00 CST on Fox - the Sparties are unanimously 13.5 point favorites (this is definitely not a rivalry game). The weather forecast is 50 and no chance of precipitation so there is no excuse for MSU's offense this week. MSU's defense is very good, and is the only reason they'll win this game. MSU wins but fails to cover.
NWU at IL at 3:00 CST on FS1 - the Wildcats are unanimously 16.5 point favorites in the Land of Lincoln Trophy game. The weather forecast is for 60 degrees and no precipitation. NWU is better on both sides of the ball as well as special teams. Wildcats win and cover.
Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity
DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.
Posts: 23817 | Location: Northern Suburbs of Houston | Registered: November 14, 2005
IA at NE - I like Nebraska at home in this game OSU at UofM - Im picking Michigan to win and save Harbaugh's job at home. They are a team with nothing to lose and Michigan has a solid D this year. IU at Purdue - Taking Purdue on this one and cover PSU at MD - Penn State in a blow out WI at MN - I like the Badger to win and cover late MSU at Rutgers - MSU wins and covers NWU at IL - NWU wins and covers
"The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits." Albert Einstein
Posts: 8121 | Location: Phoenix AZ | Registered: May 22, 2007
