quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
I was thinking more alongs of a woodchipper.....

^^^ Haha. Nice

I'm retired from the PA Dept of Corrections, where I was a nurse for a long time. Before being a prison nurse I also worked in hospitals & nursing homes.

Over the years I've treated just about everything from diabetes to sickle cell. I've responded to GSWs, knifings, hangings, wrist slashing, beatings, and falls from towers. I've come in contact with TB, malaria, HIV, AIDS, Hepatitis A B & C, syphlis, clap, chlymidia, and every other kind of std known to man. I've ben exposed to every common cold, & every strain of flu that's come along. I've done CPR more times than I can count, many of which were before anybody ever heard of CPR masks........
And I ain't wearing no damned mask for the rest of my life.

How far down this rabbit hole are we going to let them take us?

quote:

Originally posted by bigdeal:

quote:

Originally posted by GWbiker:
AZ Governor has shut down the Fitness Centers....where everyone wears a mask and there are sanitary wipes stations within reach.

No mention by the health experts if anyone got the virus at an AZ fitness center/gym.

Same thing I mentioned before. Show me the stats to support the position that gyms and bars are the entities contributing to the rise in positive tests. I have never been able to suggest to 'any' customer 'ever' a course of action without supporting my recommendation(s) with data. These GD elected morons are making this shit up as they go and no one in the 'media' is calling them on it.

I suspect a lot of what is driving the increase in cases is positive antibody tests now that antibody testing is becoming more prevalent. While a rational person would say, “Great, more folks who are most likely immune, whether they were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms and beat it on their own. This is great because it means we are one person closer to herd immunity and the virus is statistically less lethal as we have yet another piffle case that is already resolved in a good way. Of course, that is not at all how the commies, the media, or Fauci are presenting it. Sigh...

What's "driving the increase" is more lies, plain and simple.

Everything that has happened since (at least) November 2016 has been with the goal of turning our country into The Socialist State of America.

I never believed it. It seemed like rooting for the pilot to crash the plane you were on. Yet here we are.

Its a thread drift, but it seems apt.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
What's "driving the increase" is more lies, plain and simple.

Can’t argue with that in the least. Lies and politics seem to be what is driving the whole thing.

And they just can't understand people like me, who now believe nothing and I do mean nothing we are being told about this "pandemic". Well, tell ya what- don't fucking lie to us and then expect us to accept anything you say after that.

They tell us stuff we know is not true, they keep changing their story, keep changing their made-up fucked-up arbitrary rules, they do everything they can to destroy our economy and put untold numbers of Americans out of work and plan to keep them out of work until next year. Half of that gang are con men. The other half are just plain damn fools. Together, they sell their ridiculous shit to the gullible among us, who, apparently, are legion. That leaves the rest of us- however many that may be- to see this travesty for what it is, and we owe it to our country to push back against this shit by doing anything we can to throw a monkey wrench in to the works; speaking out, refusing to wear these silly-ass ineffective masks and refusing to comply in a host of other ways, down to the tiniest of things, like going against the arrows on the aisles in the grocery store. Anything and everything, just do it. Speak up, push back. Make it just that much harder for these clowns.

For anyone thinking I am saying that COVID-19 does not exist, think again, but just about all of this stupid shit was entirely unnecessary, and I can only hope to be around to witness the truth come out, and it will come out eventually and when all is said and done, be sure to remember who did what in this fiasco. Vote with your dollars.

The latest bullshit is that they're "looking for the cause of the spike." That's an easy one: His momma and his daddy

quote:

Originally posted by holdem:
I work in this industry. And you are not wrong. Overall bicycle sales, nationwide, jumped 75% in April.

Drill down to statewide, and some stores were completely closed, but in places like FL, where the weather was really, really nice in April and the stores were open, it was not uncommon for a store to report triple their normal sales volume in April. May was the same. June has continued to be the same.

If you walk into a random store and ask for a $750 mountain bike, you are likely to get laughed out the door. They are being produced as fast as possible, they are being airfreighted over, but there is no way the system can keep up with this demand.

I have an entry level Trek that I rode at work, don't need it anymore but it needs a tune up. Even service is backed up sometimes up to 3 weeks. Was looking to get it tuned up before selling the bike but that might not happen now.

I have been calling Trek stores looking for a Madone or Domane in the $3500 price range. Most stores are out of stock and orders won't arrive until late August. I was mistaken in thinking it was just the large retail stores which had their bikes sold out.

quote:

Originally posted by Prefontaine:

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
I think most reasonable people believe the virus came out of a chinese lab. I'm not sure many believe that it was bio-engineered though.

I have read multiple reports that is the truth. They were bio-engineering the thing in this lab, testing it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...nstitute_of_Virology

We can do a heck of a lot better than Wikipedia now.

Damning stuff:
----------------------------------------------------------------

– The most logical explanation is that it comes from a laboratory

https://www.minervanett.no/cor...-a-laboratory/361860

The well-known Norwegian virologist Birger Sørensen and his colleagues have examined the corona virus. They believe it has certain properties which would not evolve naturally. These conclusions are politically controversial, but in this interview he shares the findings behind the headlines.

Aksel Fridstrøm Nyhetsredaktør
Nils August Andresen Ansvarlig redaktør
Publisert torsdag 02. juli 2020 - 19:10 Sist oppdatert torsdag 02. juli 2020 - 22:24

“I understand that this is controversial, but the public has a legitimate need to know, and it is important that it is possible to freely discuss alternate hypotheses on how the virus originated” Birger Sørensen starts to explain when Minerva visits him in his office one morning in Oslo.

Despite the explosiveness of his statements and research, Sørensen remains calm and collected.

Sørensen has been a point of controversy ever since former MI6 director Richard Dearlove cited a yet to be published article by Sørensen and his colleagues in an interview with The Daily Telegraph. The article claims that the virus that causes Covid-19 most likely has not emerged naturally.

“It’s a shame that there has already been so much talk about this, because I have yet to publish the article where I put forward my analysis”, Sørensen says in the form of an exasperated sigh.

Together with his colleagues, Angus Dalgleish and Andres Susrud have authored an article that looks into the most plausible explanations regarding the origins of the novel coronavirus. The article builds upon an already published article in the Quarterly Review of Biophysics that describes newly discovered properties in the virus spike protein. The authors are still in dialogue with scientific journals regarding an upcoming publication of the article.

News outlets are thus confronted with a difficult question: Are the findings and arguments Sørensen and his colleagues put forward of a sufficiently high quality to be presented and discussed in the public sphere? Sørensen explains that they in their dialogue with scientific journals are encountering a certain reluctance to publishing the article – without, however, proper scientific objections. Minerva has read a draft of the article, and has after an overall assessment decided that the findings and arguments do deserve public debate, and that this discussion cannot depend entirely on the publication process of scientific journals.

In this interview with Minerva, Sørensen therefore puts forward his hypothesis on why it is highly unlikely that the coronavirus emerged naturally.

On May 18th, WHO decided to conduct an inquiry into the coronavirus epidemic in China. Sørensen believes that it is important that this inquiry looks into new and alternate explanations for how the virus originated, beyond the already well-known suggestion that the virus originated in the Wuhan Seafood Market.

“There are very few who still believe that the epidemic started there, so as of today we have no good answers on how the epidemic started. Then we must also dare to look at more controversial, alternative explanations for the origin,” Sørensen says.

Birger Sørensen and one of his co-authors, Angus Dalgleish, are already known as HIV researchers par excellence.

In 2008, Sørensen’s work came to international attention when he launched a new immunotherapy for HIV. Angus Dalgleish is the professor at St. George’s Medical School in London who became world famous in 1984 after having discovered a novel receptor that the HIV virus uses to enter human cells.

The purpose of the work Sørensen and his colleagues have done on the novel coronavirus, has been to produce a vaccine. And they have taken their experience in trialling HIV vaccines with them to analyse the coronavirus more thoroughly, in order to make a vaccine that can protect against Covid-19 without major side effects.
Exceptionally well adjusted

“The difference between our approach and other vaccine manufacturers is that we have a chemistry background, and we analyse the virus in detail as if we were making a drug,” Sørensen starts to explain.

“Biology is also chemistry, so by considering the virus from a chemistry perspective, we carry out more detailed analysis, zooming in on certain components.”

Sørensen takes us through the basic elements of their approach:

“The first thing you need to establish is which parts of the virus are changing, and which parts are stable. If you want to make a vaccine that lasts, you must stimulate the immune system to react against those parts of the virus that are constant, otherwise the effect will disappear and, in the worst-case scenario, lead to increased illness.

“Once we know this, we can try to make a vaccine. Where we differ is that we are trying to make a vaccine that uses elements that have as little in common with the body’s natural components as possible, so that the immune system is taught to recognise exactly what the vaccine should protect against”, Sørensen elaborates.

Sørensen believes this is an important insight which will prevent the immune system from being falsely stimulated in a way that could lead the vaccine to create too many dangerous side effects in the vaccinated person.

“When we have not succeeded in creating an HIV vaccine, despite the enormous efforts put into that endeavour for the past 30 years, it is because we haven’t understood this,” Sørensen continues.

He believes that there has not been enough interaction between the part of the pharmaceutical industry that makes HIV medicines and the part that runs the vaccine research. As a consequence, the knowledge you need to make a successful vaccine against HIV in the big pharmaceutical companies has not been adequately exploited by the big, international HIV preventing vaccine studies that have been carried out.”

Asked about what significance his approached has had when he has analyzed the coronavirus, Sørensen explains:

“We have examined which components of the virus are especially well suited to attach themselves to cells in humans. And we have done this by comparing the properties of the virus with human genetics. What we found was that this virus was exceptionally well adjusted to infect humans.”

He pauses for a second.

“So well that it was suspicious,” he adds.

Perfected to infect humans

It is already known that the novel coronavirus, like the virus that caused the SARS epidemic in Southeast Asia in 2002-2003, could attach itself to the ACE-2 receptors in the lower respiratory tract.

“But what we have discovered is that there are properties in this new virus which enables it to use an additional receptor, and create a binding to human cells in the upper respiratory tract and the intestines which is strong enough to produce an infection,” Sørensen elaborates.

Sørensen says that it is the use of this additional receptor that most likely results in a different illness in Covid-19 patients than the one resulting from SARS.

“This is what enables the virus to transmit to a greater degree between humans, without the virus having attached itself to the ACE-2 receptors in the lower respiratory tract, where it causes deep pneumonia.

“That is also why so many of the Covid-19 patients have mild symptoms at the start of the illness, and are contagious before they develop severe symptoms,” he adds.

It might also explain why some people are ‘super spreaders’ without being ill themselves, Sørensen says.

In the already published article Sørensen and his colleagues Angus Dalgleish and Andres Susrud describe what they claim is curious about the spike protein of the coronavirus, which makes it especially well suited to infect humans. These findings are the foundation for the hypothesis Sørensen and his colleagues develop in the new article, where they claim that the virus is not natural in origin.

A spike protein is a part of the virus attached to the surface of the virus. The spike protein is used by the virus when it enters cells, enabling it to stick in humans. The properties of the spike determines which receptors a virus can utilise and thus which cells the virus can enter to create illness.

“There are several factors that point towards this,” says Sørensen. “Firstly, this part of the virus is very stable; it mutates very little. That points to this virus as a fully developed, almost perfected virus for infecting humans.

“Secondly, this indicates that the structure of the virus cannot have evolved naturally. When we compare the novel coronavirus with the one that caused SARS, we see that there are altogether six inserts in this virus that stand out compared to other known SARS viruses,” he goes on explaining.

Sørensen says that several of these changes in the virus are unique, and that they do not exist in other known SARS coronaviruses.

“Four of these six changes have the property that they are suited to infect humans. This kind of aggregation of a type of property can be done simply in a laboratory, and helps to substantiate such an origin,” Sørensen points out.
An artificially created virus

Asked about whether this implies that the virus is not natural, Sørensen goes on to explain the laboratory process that leads to the creation of new viruses.

“In a sense it is natural. But the natural processes have most likely been accelerated in a laboratory,” he explains. “It’s also possible for a virus to attain these properties in nature, but it’s not likely. If the mutations had happened in nature, we would have most likely seen that the virus had attracted other properties through mutations, not just properties that help the virus to attach itself to human cells.”

Sørensen vividly explains this argument:

“Imagine that you have cultivated a billion coronaviruses you have gathered from nature, then you take this mass of viruses and inject them into a human cell culture from for example the upper respiratory tract. As a result, a few of these viruses will change in order to better attach themselves to this type of cell in the nose and throat region and therefore to infect humans more easily. You end up with a virus with a spike protein which is perfect for attaching to and penetrating human cells.” Sørensen explains.

Asked about the particular mutations in the virus that lead to this conclusion, Sørensens says:

“What we see is that an area that you could observe in the first SARS coronavirus has been moved, so that the parts of the virus that are particularly well suited to attach to humans, have become part of the spike protein that the virus uses to penetrate human cells. And it is this moving of the area of the virus which makes the virus, together with the injected areas explained above, able to utilise an additional receptor to infect humans.”


On a board in the meeting room where Sørensen is hosting our meeting, he illustrates what he is trying to explain, and how a component of the virus which previously was situated on another part of the shell of the virus, now has become a part of the spike protein of the virus.
More than ninety percent confident

Sørensen is therefore quite confident that the virus has originated in a laboratory.

“I think it’s more than 90 percent certain. It’s at least a far more probable explanation than it having developed this way in nature”, Sørensen responds.

Sørensen also highlights other data than those related to the virus’ properties:

“The properties that we now see in the virus, we have yet to discover anywhere in nature. We know that these properties make the virus very infectious, so if it came from nature, there should also be many animals infected with this, but we have still not been able to trace the virus in nature.

“The only place we are aware of where an equivalent virus to that which causes Covid-19 exists, is in a laboratory. So the simplest and most logical explanation is that it comes from a laboratory. Those who claim otherwise, have the burden of proof,” Sørensen says.

Critical voices suppressed

There are indeed earlier known experiments where changes to the corona virus have been engineered. An interesting example of this kind of research is a collaborative effort between Wuhan Institute of Virology and University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. In a 2015 article, Menachery et al. describe experiments with laboratory created corona viruses – so called gain-of-function-studies. The purpose of this research is partly to be better prepared for new pathogenic variants of the virus. But the researchers also write: «the potential to prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks must be weighed against the risk of creating more dangerous pathogens». This risk must also be evaluated in light of previous known accidents where corona viruses have escaped from laboratories in China.

According to US Department health & human services, gain-of-function studies refer to research which aims to increase the ability of a pathogen to cause disease. The method is controversial, because it entails risks, such as viruses escaping from labs. Between 2014 and 2018, this kind of research was prohibited in the United States, but in December 2017, American authorities announced that the ban would be lifted.

But several researchers have already pointed out that artificially created viruses would be easy to identify. We therefore ask Sørensen why this has not been identified earlier.

Sørensen believes there are several reasons for this.

“The first is that this is a very uncomfortable finding, and the production of new scientific articles that can be used to prove such findings has all but ground to a halt. Chinese scientists no longer publish articles that can be used to support such a hypothesis”, he says.

“And newer articles that are published about the virus must be thoroughly investigated, especially in relation to the basic material that is being used,” Sørensen expands, and points to a new x-ray article published in Nature by Shang et al., which Sørensen also earlier has criticised for being misleading.

“To do my analysis, I have therefore had to go back to the source material, and look at those articles that were published before the Covid-19 outbreak, where we have chosen to assume that the data that have been used is okay and reflects the actual conditions,” Sørensen says.

Asked about why there has not been more debate on this topic Sørensen has several explanations.

“This quickly becomes a discussion on politics, rather than science, Sørensen responds.

“Nobody wants to put forward the inconvenient truth, many scientists are also concerned about their own funding and position if they were to put forward such a controversial hypothesis, Sørensen elaborates. It is nevertheless a fact that many people on the web have engaged in such a debate. But so far, those who participate in such forums are characterized as conspiratorial. It is also the case that a debate about this type of viral research and the technologies used may damage reputation and lead to new restrictions on how to conduct molecular genetic research. With this in mind, it is not difficult to see that it must be difficult to get accepted papers in peer reviewed journals that focus on such research.

Hopes his arguments will be discussed properly

Sørensens himself is Chairman of the board at Immunor, a company which is working to develop their own vaccine candidate for Covid-19. Minerva has challenged him to address allegations that this hypothesis is launched publicly to attract funding for his own research.

“Of course, it’s in my interest that my research becomes known, but I am being completely open and have declared all my interests.

“At the same time, I argue that it must be possible for those of us who work for smaller biotechnology companies to present our findings and get them discussed properly. If anyone wishes to contest my findings, they are of course welcome to do so, but I hope they will engage thoroughly with the arguments rather than derail them by discussing my motives,” Sørensen responds.

***

Translation from Norwegian by Kathrine Jebsen Moore


---------------------------------------------------------------------

This, and my friend got his Trek a couple weeks ahead of schedule a couple days ago told me that when he picked it up and test rode it, it was like they hired 3rd graders to assemble it...

total sellers market...

quote:

Originally posted by Edmond:

quote:

Originally posted by holdem:
I work in this industry. And you are not wrong. Overall bicycle sales, nationwide, jumped 75% in April.

Drill down to statewide, and some stores were completely closed, but in places like FL, where the weather was really, really nice in April and the stores were open, it was not uncommon for a store to report triple their normal sales volume in April. May was the same. June has continued to be the same.

If you walk into a random store and ask for a $750 mountain bike, you are likely to get laughed out the door. They are being produced as fast as possible, they are being airfreighted over, but there is no way the system can keep up with this demand.

I have an entry level Trek that I rode at work, don't need it anymore but it needs a tune up. Even service is backed up sometimes up to 3 weeks. Was looking to get it tuned up before selling the bike but that might not happen now.

I have been calling Trek stores looking for a Madone or Domane in the $3500 price range. Most stores are out of stock and orders won't arrive until late August. I was mistaken in thinking it was just the large retail stores which had their bikes sold out.

Good article 209.

The author uses the words "artificial" and "gain of function".

That's called Bio-engineering. I guess there is a very fine line between bio-research and bio-weaponization.

Is the COVID Surge More Fake News?

By Brian C.Joondeph, MD

“The coronavirus surge is real, and it’s everywhere” says Axios and most of the DNC media.

Time to panic. They pile on, “The coronavirus pandemic is getting dramatically worse in almost every corner of the U.S.”

We are told new cases are rising by double-digit percentages, including: “The number of people hospitalized with coronavirus.” Hospitalized with or from coronavirus? Is this really a surge or simply fear-mongering fake news?

Texas features prominently in the surge scare. Coincidently Texas is a red state that if flipped to blue would prevent a Republican from ever winning the White House for the foreseeable future. Everything is bigger in Texas, including the Chinese coronavirus surge.

A Texas hospital CEO lets the fake news cat out of the bag.

Health officials in Texas are logging every single COVID-19-positive hospital patient in the state as a COVID-19 hospitalization, even if the patients themselves are admitted seeking treatment for something other than the coronavirus.

Most hospitals require a COVID test before elective surgery. This means that patients coming to the hospital for a non-COVID reason are tested for COVID, and if positive are being counted as a “COVID hospitalization.” If a patient goes to the hospital for a new hip or cataract surgery, and happens to test positive for COVID, they are counted as a COVID hospitalization.

Just like inflated death counts, there is a big difference between dying or being hospitalized due to coronavirus or with coronavirus.

This surge hit the news about two weeks ago, after the BLM protests and riots peaked and agitators were starting to be arrested. Is this the latest chapter in the ongoing saga to beat on Trump and interfere in the upcoming presidential election?

States experiencing this surge began reopening two months ago, including Florida, Texas, and Arizona. With a coronavirus incubation period of 5-6 days, according to the World Health Organization, any surge due to reopening should have occurred a week or two after states reopened, not two months later.

Not mentioned are the BLM protests, all within the past month. Mass gatherings in many U.S. cities, without masks or social distancing, everything the basketball player and scarf queen warned against, are far more likely the cause of increasing positive tests.

The CDC director recommended protesters get tested for COVID and likely many did, driving up the case numbers or so-called surge. Most infected young people are asymptomatic, especially teenagers where about 80 percent of those infected show no symptoms.

It’s young people out protesting, not senior citizens. Ignoring distancing and mask recommendations, many get infected, then tested, and voila, we see a surge in cases.

A more useful metric would be hospitalizations and deaths. Houston Methodist CEO Marc Boom noted,

His hospital one year ago was at 95% ICU capacity, similar to the numbers the hospital is seeing today. “It is completely normal for us to have ICU capacities that run in the 80s and 90s," he said. "That's how all hospitals operate."

As of last week, “Texas had around 13,000 open hospital beds statewide.” Yet the Washington Post pushes fear porn, “Arizona, Florida, Texas are latest coronavirus epicenters.” Remember how coronavirus patients in New York City were supposedly dying in hospital parking lots since hospital beds were full? Yet a hospital ship and multiple makeshift hospitals in NYC were largely empty.

It gets worse. Texas can’t even count their test positive cases correctly. “State health officials acknowledged they have been releasing inaccurate figures because they were combining the number of positive COVID-19 antigen tests with the number of positive antibody tests.”

Antibody tests are now readily available, and individuals exposed or symptomatic in March or April can be tested today. Many will have COVID antibodies, indicating past, but not currently active infection. Yet they are part of the so-called surge.

That’s nonsensical thinking, much like saying there is a surge in gun violence this week, counting all gun crimes for the past four months and attributing them all to this past week.

The surge is due to more testing and more test-positive individuals, especially young people who have been out and about as the state lockdowns lifted. Last March and April, testing was available only for those admitted to the hospital for presumed COVID. Now one can get a COVID antigen or antibody test on demand through major testing centers such as Quest Diagnostics.

Texas increased daily COVID testing by over 50 percent during the past five weeks. More tests means more positive cases.

What else might be causing more cases in Texas? How about the border with Mexico which is having its own surge in coronavirus cases. How many infected are crossing our southern border? Further west along the border, the New York Times reported, “Coronavirus jumps the border, overwhelming hospitals in California.” How many of these border crossers were routed to California simply to overwhelm the local hospitals and give state officials an excuse to shut everything down again?

How convenient that we are seeing a surge in coronavirus cases as the economy is beginning to rebound and the great Democrat hope Joe Biden still can’t utter a coherent sentence. Deep state seditious shenanigans are coming to light as President Trump continues his unending quest to drain the swamp. Yet the news is all about surging coronavirus cases, drowning out everything else.

A surge in cases puts pressure on Trump to scale back or stop his rallies while Biden can continue to hide in his basement. Debates may be risky or entirely unnecessary now as the Washington Post claimed. Funny how they were still quite relevant when glib Barack Obama debated tongue-tied McCain and Romney.

Biden admitted as much, “I’m going to follow the doc’s orders, I will not hold any rallies.” Want to bet this morphs into him skipping the debates, based on “doctor’s orders,” avoiding Trump schlonging him on a national stage?

This has always been about the election, along with the protests and riots. The so-called surge is just the latest chapter in the left’s quest to deny President Trump a second term.

Expect to see impeachment resurrected based on fake news of Trump ignoring bounties on American troops. And if all else fails, why not another viral pandemic?

As the BBC recently reported,

A new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic has been identified in China by scientists.

It emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say.

The researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person and trigger a global outbreak.

While it is not an immediate problem, they say, it has "all the hallmarks" of being highly adapted to infect humans and needs close monitoring.

As it's new, people could have little or no immunity to the virus.

How convenient. It was never really about the virus but instead the election, and the last gasps of the deep state desperately trying to keep their crimes against Trump and humanity hidden away in the hopes that Biden’s handlers can bury everything if Biden stumbles across the finish line in November.

Brian C. Joondeph, MD, is a Denver-based physician and freelance writer

https://www.americanthinker.co..._more_fake_news.html

This message has been edited. Last edited by: parabellum,

Sig209, thanks for posting that article.

What a pleasure to read something actually intelligent about the subject.

Yes, great find there. Interviewee's comments about his as of yet unpublished study. Interviewee runs Immunor AS that is working on a potential vaccine for SARS-CoV-2. Of course, he has nothing to gain by getting his name out there along with the name of the of his potential vaccine, does he?

Instead, it's a worldwide conspiracy to suppress the truth that the virus was engineered and released by the Chinese.

Hang on. I found the spike.



Ain't no wonder. All that physical contact. Those sumbitches were laying up to ten miles of track a day. I hope they were at least wearing condoms.

I know for some the 209 article is a bit conspiritoryish. But I have believed from the beginning of this deal that was the case. This thing is no accident or natural occurring phenomenon.
For one thing it was forecasted a couple of years ago by shorty.