Ok, it’s starting to get a little more unnerving- 56 KNOWN deaths and cases popping up more and more.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/w...coronavirus.amp.html

Disneyland in Shanghai closed yesterday and Disneyland in Hong Kong is closing today due to the virus.

quote:

Originally posted by RogueJSK:

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:
Where are your epidemiology figures from? What are the inputs that were used in the Lancaster model?

https://drive.google.com/file/...Pym1Xj_3PmysukL/view

Yep, read that paper. Did you?
Let’s start with some numbers, which you incorrectly cited:
The infectious period is 3.6 days (not 14) and the ascertainment rate is 5.1%. The reason for the latter is the viral symptoms for most who are are mild; even non-existent for some. They also note that the fatality rate can’t accurately be estimated - so where did you get 4% ?
Without an accurate pool of subject data based on a validated test, the Lancaster model’s predictions are near meaningless. The first sentence in the Limitations paragraph should have given you a clue.

The Biggest concern regarding this new viral strain is that it infects a lot of people, then undergoes a mutation that is noteworthy but that hasn’t happened and speculating that it might is like speculating a comet impact tomorrow. We also don’t know what the viral latency is like.

I suggest people stop reacting to the lame stream Press, who LOVE to hype the number of deaths without a shred of understanding as to subjects background health.

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:
The infectious period is 3.6 days (not 14)

That was the infectious period assumed for that model, based on that of SARS.

The incubation period is known to be ~14 days, per the CDC. Incubation is what I was referencing, while discussing the number of people who could have traveled through/from Wuhan to other areas over the past 2+ weeks and be carrying the virus.

As you know, incubation period =/= infectious period.

For those who don't know, Incubation is the period from exposure/initial infection to the onset of symptoms. This includes a latent period where you're carrying the virus but not yet able to pass it along to others.

Infectious is the period that you're contagious to other people, generally at the very end of the incubation period through the full-blown symptomatic disease period.

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:
so where did you get 4% ?

As stated in my post, based on the information provided by the Chinese government at the time, which was ~40 confirmed deaths out of ~1000 total confirmed cases.

But you are correct that this stat is very rough (as previously acknowledged), based on numerous factors like an inability until recently to discern between deaths caused by this virus in particular and other similar viral infections, as well as a potentially very large number of unknown infected, plus the lack of honesty and transparency in Chinese government stat reporting.

quote:

40 confirmed deaths out of ~1000 total confirmed cases

Which, given the extreme level of containment (kind of late with the horse up and gone)gives me very little reason to trust the Chinese. My immediate assumption is that it will be higher. When their Premier says that the epidemic is a "grave situation", it doesn't inspire confidence that it is so minor. Now factor that with the Chinese New Year, as many as 450 million citizens of China are traveling...that's our entire population in the US+ 100 million or so. How many of them started on their trip before travel was halted?

I'm no doomsayer; I was one of the ones trying to downplay the severity of Ebola making a worldwide run based on the virus's greatest weakness- timely communicability. But here, as with SARS, I don't expect we are getting the entire story...yet.

This is from a local paper on the 22nd about the guy in Wa State. It seems they're taking it seriously. If nothing else we have a sample to study.

https://komonews.com/news/loca...ans-life-has-changed

No panic is a new panic: The Andromeda Strain
https://youtu.be/YMbSpnlOOtE

quote:

Originally posted by RogueJSK:

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:
The infectious period is 3.6 days (not 14)

That was the infectious period assumed for that model.

The incubation period is 14 days, per the CDC.

Incubation period =/= infectious period.

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:
so where did you get 4% ?

Look
As stated in my post, based on the information provided by the Chinese government at the time, which was ~40 confirmed deaths out of ~1000 total confirmed cases.

If the ascertainment rate is 5.1%, how many cases do you think are overlooked? Based on the information at the time, you should have adjusted your figure or at least caveated it.
They also can’t confirm cases accurately unless they have a validated test, which has only been in their hands for a week.

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:
or at least caveated it.

Which I did in my initial post. Repeatedly.

I also included in my recent post an acknowledgement of the large amount of uncertainly based on various factors.

Early models are unavoidably rough. That's even further exacerbated when you're having to rely on data from a totalitarian government disinclined to honesty due to an overwhelming concern about potential loss of face and resulting diminished authority/control.

At this point, we are relying on the news media to "inform" us on this outbreak.
Compared to other events where we now know the reliability and truthfulness of those stories, how accurate have they been and what has their motivation been? Usually to capture eyeballs to help them sell advertising. In this case much of it has been filtered through the Chinese government too.
This certainly could be the worldwide disaster many have been predicting for years.... or not. Too early to tell, but certainly something to watch.
Let's put this in perspective by comparing it to a normal flu season, here in the USA, a range really.
The CDC reports a range of between 12,000 and 61,000 deaths per year since 2010 in the USA and we have about a third of the population of China.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

quote:

Originally posted by braillediver:
No panic is a new panic: The Andromeda Strain
https://youtu.be/YMbSpnlOOtE

For anybody who's not read this Stephen King gem, this week would be an awesome week to start it! It's probably selling out like the useless paper masks.....

^^^^
Only problem is you wouldn’t make it through a quarter of the book before Captain Trips burned through

I own a primary care doctor’s office (pediatrics) near a major city (Washington DC). We are definitely keeping a close eye on it


(Mainly because I don’t want my main doctor, my wife, to get this, nor my employees, that include me, my son, his best friend, and his girlfriend, to then give it to my 8 year old daughter)

We already know the Chinese government, like other totalitarian communist governments, controls their domestic media and does not like to publicize bad or embarrassing news. They routinely under report fatalities in accidents and disasters, pollution levels, and many other figures that expose realities they don't want to acknowledge. Saving "face" is a concept in east Asian culture that westerners don't really understand.

By banning western social media, China has herded its population to the "approved" social media platform "Wexin" or WeChat which is now the de facto phone app for social media, text chat, peer-to-peer voice, peer-to-peer video, electronic payment, and many other functions that people are now dependent on. And the government monitors it and censors it. VPN's work to get outside the blocks, but average people don't bother because it's a hassle of the VPN's getting broken by the government and then fixed by the programmers in a perpetual cat and mouse game.

So we really don't know what is actually going on, certainly not the official story from the Chinese government. Western media is getting a mix of "official" news and probably accounts of individuals that are sending info using any means they can to get the info out to the rest of the world.

Look at what they are doing - this kind of quarantine has never happened before. Either they are being too cautious which is pretty unlikely, or they know more than they are admitting, and they waited too long to contain it and are scrambling to get it under control now.

Now some Beijing schools are extending the holiday for 14 days after the end of the original break. (IDK exactly when the festival ends but IIRC, it’s 2/8.)

Hopefully they do better with this than SARS as Dakor indicated.

Personally, we are doing our normal FLU avoidance routine like we do every winter.

All so predictable. I wonder what will be the name for the big virus epidemic scare after this one.

The last one didn't kill you; this one won't, either, nor will the next.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
All so predictable. I wonder what will be the name for the big virus epidemic scare after this one.

The last one didn't kill you; this one won't, either, nor will the next.

Quit being so level headed and calm. We're all gonna die! Or not. Is it time for those seeing a plot behind every bush to wake up. Its a damn commie plot to kill us all, and only they've got the cure.

I could have told you long ago that it wasn't a good idea to eat bats or snakes. Or even to hang around with damn fools that do. The democrats probably are part of the plan to eliminate Trump who they hate. Maybe gun oil is what spreads it. Or drinking alcohol. Its got to be one of those things.

Already few confirm with the virus infected were travelers back from China. If you understand chinese there are shit load of video from Asia talking about what happen inside China is fucking scary over there , there are videos show people drops like flies. Medical personnel are scared and screaming for help, it really look like the zombie movie.

5 confirmed cases here in Aus.

Chinese nationals, all visited the Wuhan seafood market.

If it wasn't the Lunar New Year, would the media be even be interested?

Read Para's post (above) one more time.

Haven't read any of this thread, so I don't know if it's just me. But why is it every time I see that word in print, I always see "carnivorous"??