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When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2) Login/Join 
Big Stack
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I trust him more than I trust the Chinese government and it's fully captive media.

quote:
Originally posted by Dakor:
^^^^ That guy has an agenda against the Chinese, similar to the lame stream media's agenda against Trump. Not to mention he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about when it comes to infectious disease transmission.
 
Posts: 20523 | Registered: November 05, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
An investment in knowledge
pays the best interest
posted Hide Post
I trust the Head of NIAID at the NIH, who was on Lou Dobbs last night. He said the Chinese were providing them and the CDC with real-time data and the Chinese government was taking rapid precautions to prevent the spread of a disease we shouldn’t be alarmist about. They, China, seem to have learned from the SARS cover-up based on American healthcare personnel in the problem area within China.
I’m not a fan of ChiCom either pal, but sometimes you need to take the blinders off.
 
Posts: 2885 | Location: Mid-Atlantic | Registered: December 27, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Baroque Bloke
Picture of Pipe Smoker
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It’s amazing that so many of these flu viruses originate in China. In this case maybe someone sold a “down snake”. Smile

“Scientists now believe that the deadly virus spreading around the globe from China was passed to humans from snakes sold at the open-air market in Wuhan.
……
Sold alongside a menagerie the included live koalas, rats and wolf pups [ Roll Eyes ] at the Huanan Seafood Market in central Wuhan - now thought to be the outbreak's epicentre - snakes likely then served as the jumping-off point for the virus to begin infecting humans…”

https://mol.im/a/7918719



Excited about crackers!
 
Posts: 6667 | Location: San Diego | Registered: July 26, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Step by step walk the thousand mile road
Picture of Sig2340
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The thing about this Chinese virus is an hour after contracting it you want to contract another virus.





Nice is overrated

"It's every freedom-loving individual's duty to lie to the government."
Airsoftguy, June 29, 2018

 
Posts: 29567 | Location: Loudoun County, Virginia | Registered: May 17, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lighten up and laugh
Picture of Ackks
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quote:
Originally posted by Pipe Smoker:
It’s amazing that so many of these flu viruses originate in China. In this case maybe someone sold a “down snake”. Smile

“Scientists now believe that the deadly virus spreading around the globe from China was passed to humans from snakes sold at the open-air market in Wuhan.
……
Sold alongside a menagerie the included live koalas, rats and wolf pups [ Roll Eyes ] at the Huanan Seafood Market in central Wuhan - now thought to be the outbreak's epicentre - snakes likely then served as the jumping-off point for the virus to begin infecting humans…”

https://mol.im/a/7918719

People eat bats sold at that same market. Shocking that things originate there...
 
Posts: 7672 | Registered: September 29, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Wait, what?
Picture of gearhounds
posted Hide Post
The Chinese will eat anything.

Given the number of people in China and the sheer number of organisms they come into contact with (including for consumption) I suppose it's inevitable that a large number of illnesses originate there from species jumping pathogens. And everyone used to think it was locations of deforestation in primeval areas that would be ground zero.




“Remember to get vaccinated or a vaccinated person might get sick from a virus they got vaccinated against because you’re not vaccinated.” - author unknown
 
Posts: 13096 | Location: Martinsburg WV | Registered: April 02, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lost
Picture of kkina
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Bats actually was the initial theory, except it didn't make sense as it's winter and all the bats are hibernating. So one research team postulated snakes as the next possible (not probable) intermediate host. It wasn't long before the press started tweeting, "Snake Flu!"

But other scientists think their research was flawed and led to very premature conclusions. On the one hand, we did get the Avian Flu from birds, and reptiles are very close to birds on the taxonomic scale. On the other hand, the whole method of comparing gene codons between species is very indirect. And can lead to premature conclusions.

I think it is possible, and waiting to see where this one goes.



ACCU-STRUT FOR MINI-14
"First, Eyes."
 
Posts: 14489 | Location: SF Bay Area | Registered: December 11, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
An investment in knowledge
pays the best interest
posted Hide Post
Much of the origination has to do with proximity to animals and hygiene standards in China. Avian vectors are notorious for generating infectious strains due to their high body temp, which helps facilitate gene transfer and recombination.
The most prolific vectors are swine however. Besides wallowing in their own feces, allowing even greater selection to occur, a pig’s immune system is remarkably similar to a human. The primary reason immature pigs are used as pre-clinical animal models for immune related indications/therapies is this similarity. Unfortunately species cross-over occurs where conditions are most favorable, which happens to be China.
SigMonkey’s photo is more appropo than he may know, demonstrating his remarkable wisdom once again.
 
Posts: 2885 | Location: Mid-Atlantic | Registered: December 27, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
That is my spot.
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My wife teaches English online to kids in mainland China. They are being told it’s worse than the big SARS outbreak was. They are keeping them home for New Year anyway but not telling when school will be back. Many of her students have cancelled or not scheduled classes because of the New Year but this feels different to her and her coworkers than last year.

Not sure what’s really going on but they are certainly treating it differently than I expected.


*****************
"And those who govern ought not to be lovers of the task? For, if they are, there will be rival lovers, and they will fight."
Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety. - Ben Franklin
 
Posts: 2076 | Location: Rural Tallahassee, FL | Registered: October 26, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of vthoky
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quote:
Originally posted by Sig2340:
The thing about this Chinese virus is an hour after contracting it you want to contract another virus.


Big Grin




God bless America.
 
Posts: 11401 | Location: Hokie Nation! | Registered: July 15, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
An investment in knowledge
pays the best interest
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by BigNC:
My wife teaches English online to kids in mainland China. They are being told it’s worse than the big SARS outbreak was. They are keeping them home for New Year anyway but not telling when school will be back. Many of her students have cancelled or not scheduled classes because of the New Year but this feels different to her and her coworkers than last year.

Not sure what’s really going on but they are certainly treating it differently than I expected.

Chinese officials denied to everyone, including their own citizens, about the potential pandemic that was SARS. It’s a good thing that they’re treating this new P2P transmittable virus differently than in the past.
 
Posts: 2885 | Location: Mid-Atlantic | Registered: December 27, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
The Ice Cream Man
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Asians, China/Hong Kong in particular, raise poultry, and pigs, in close proximity to one another, and to people.

Swine can be infected with swine flus, avian flus, and human. When those flus infect the same cell, they can exchange dna/RNA and breed a new form.

Lower hygiene standards, and less cultural personal space, help them spread.
 
Posts: 4578 | Location: Republic of Ice Cream, Myrtle Beach, SC | Registered: May 24, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of lkdr1989
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By the way, Happy almost-Chinese New Year:





...let him who has no sword sell his robe and buy one. Luke 22:35-36 NAV

"Behold, I send you out as sheep in the midst of wolves; so be shrewd as serpents and innocent as doves." Matthew 10:16 NASV
 
Posts: 4041 | Location: Valley, Oregon | Registered: June 03, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of notarex
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1000 bed hospital being built in 6 days Eek

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/w...-asia-china-51245156
 
Posts: 498 | Location: NH | Registered: August 06, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Telecom Ronin
Picture of dewhorse
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I am reading that they believe only 1 in 20 cases are actually being detected and the rumors of people dying without being tested of some type of respiratory virus is all over the Chinese online media.

That might be why their gov locked them in, they can't trust the reporting from their own provincial officials....
 
Posts: 8199 | Location: Back in NE TX ....to stay | Registered: February 12, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Bookers Bourbon
and a good cigar
Picture of Johnny 3eagles
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BUCK FIDEN

“Fate whispers to the warrior, 'You can not withstand the storm.'
The warrior whispers back, 'I AM THE STORM."


NRA ENDOWMENT LIFE MEMBER
 
Posts: 6125 | Location: Arkansas  | Registered: November 06, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Protect Your Nuts
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"deserves" ain't got nothin to do with it.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Posts: 2684 | Location: VA, mostly | Registered: June 14, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Nullus Anxietas
Picture of ensigmatic
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I'm normally not inclined to get too alarmed over such things, but, as with the dire prognostications leading up to the millennium, I'm thinking a bit of preparedness can't hurt. Especially when I'm reading, on the one hand, "this is nothing to worry about," then read, within 48 hours of that:

quote:

(CBS DETROIT) – Michigan health officials confirm they are investigating three possible cases of the Coronavirus in the state, two cases in Washtenaw County, and one in Macomb County.

...

The CDC confirms two cases so far here in the U.S, and officials are investigating another 61 potential cases.


and...

quote:

Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province, and seven other cities in the province, have been placed under a soft quarantine, with public transport shut down ahead of Lunar New Year celebrations on Saturday, when traditionally hundreds of millions of Chinese travel to family gatherings. Officials have also closed public gathering places, such as movie theaters and internet cafes in some cities.

Cited articles: Michigan Health Officials Confirm Three Deaths Related To Coronavirus (Note: Misleading headline!)
China Hurriedly Building Quarantine Center In Effort To Contain Wuhan Virus

Admittedly, this may be merely an overabundance of caution. So be it. Better safe than sorry, I'm thinking. Not going into OMG TEOTWAWKI! mode, but we will make sure we're topped-off on essentials, forgo unnecessarily exposing ourselves to public areas with large crowds, and take precautions against unavoidable exposure for the time being.




"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
"If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
"The dominant media is no more ``mainstream`` than leftists are liberals." -- me
 
Posts: 21650 | Location: S.E. Michigan | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
His diet consists of black
coffee, and sarcasm.
Picture of egregore
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by notarex:
1000 bed hospital being built in 6 days Eek


Piece of cake. Just use substandard concrete with no rebar and some of that toxic drywall. They'll have it up in no time.
 
Posts: 25187 | Location: Johnson City/Elizabethton, TN | Registered: April 28, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Fighting the good fight
Picture of RogueJSK
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Now, I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but there's a good chance that it is significantly worse than is being reported. Partly because the incubation period of the virus is reportedly rather lengthy at ~14 days, so many of those that are currently infected may not yet be symptomatic. But mostly because the Chinese government and state-run media aren't exactly known for their transparency and honesty.

There are (as yet unverified) online reports from purported Chinese medical workers within that area that the number of infected people is exponentially larger than the 1000 or so cases that the Chinese government is claiming... Many tens of thousands to possibly hundreds of thousands, potentially. 90,000 is a number that is being repeated with some regularity. And modeling simulations by epidemiologists at the University of Lancaster in the UK puts it at an estimated 250,000 infected by next week, based on what we know of the confirmed current infected and the transmission/incubation of the virus itself, with the real possibility that as much as 10% of the Chinese population could be infected by the end of next month. (And those simulations were based on the initial numbers provided by the Chinese government, which we've established could be wildly off.)

Which would explain why China has quarantined an area with a total population around 50 million. This is now the largest quarantine in human history, by a large margin.

So far, it has been reported to be fatal in about 4% of confirmed cases (~40 out of ~1000). If that is accurate, that mortality rate holds true, and 10% of the Chinese population is eventually infected, that'd be about 5.5 million dead in just China alone... And that 4% mortality rate was with these patients receiving medical care, which could mean that the rate spikes once the overall Chinese medical system becomes overrun with patients.


All joking about Ebola aside, Ebola is a nasty virus with a much higher mortality rate, but even it is not this scary due to its shorter incubation period and it not being airborne. Ebola is certainly very deadly, but tends to burn itself out rapidly too, so it doesn't lend itself to mass epidemics as well as a more easily transmissible airborne virus with a long incubation period, which even with a single digit mortality rate, can infect millions/billions of people and kill millions of them.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: RogueJSK,
 
Posts: 27917 | Location: Northwest Arkansas | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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