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When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2) Login/Join 
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quote:
with the real possibility that as much as 10% of the Chinese population could be infected by the end of next month


If one really believes 140 million Chinese folks will be infected by the end of February, then it can't be contained and the whole world is now screwed.

To the the tune of MC Hammer's, You Can't Touch This:
It's panic time. Do do do do, do do, do do. It's panic time. Do do do do, do do, do do.
 
Posts: 8491 | Location: SWFL | Registered: October 10, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Fighting the good fight
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It's entirely possible that it cannot be contained. The current quarantine that was just put in place could be too little, too late, considering people are infected weeks before they become symptomatic, and have traveled who knows where over the past several weeks since the outbreak began, especially considering it's the Lunar New Year when Chinese people traditionally travel all around the country to visit family.

As a result, the whole world is not necessarily screwed, but certainly very likely could be heavily impacted.

However, for perspective, the 1918 "Spanish Flu" epidemic killed 20+ million worldwide. The "Black Death" bubonic plague epidemic in the 14th century is estimated to have killed 100-200 million. And we survived those.

Even with a 4% mortality rate, that means 96% of those that get this new virus don't die. But 4% is about 400x deadlier than plain old regular influenza's mortality rate of ~0.01%, which still kills tens of thousands of Americans each year due to its ease of widespread airborne transmission.

Ebola, by comparison, has a mortality rate of ~90%, but it is tougher to transmit since it's not airborne, and generally starts in very rural areas, where it burns itself out quickly before it can be more widely spread.
 
Posts: 29423 | Location: Northwest Arkansas | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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It already killed me. I’ve had the plague for the last three days.
 
Posts: 13270 | Location: Shenandoah Valley, VA | Registered: October 16, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Wait, what?
Picture of gearhounds
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4% mortality rate

4% is nothing to sneeze at either; between 10 and 20% of people that got the Spanish flu perished and that was before medical care was anything near what it is in modern times. 4% is 300,000,000 people if exposure is global.




“Remember to get vaccinated or a vaccinated person might get sick from a virus they got vaccinated against because you’re not vaccinated.” - author unknown
 
Posts: 13910 | Location: Martinsburg WV | Registered: April 02, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Ignored facts
still exist
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How long before a "flu shot" is developed which includes this strain?


----------------------
Let's Go Brandon!
 
Posts: 10001 | Location: Salem. No, not that Salem.  | Registered: February 28, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Wait, what?
Picture of gearhounds
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quote:
Originally posted by radioman:
How long before a "flu shot" is developed which includes this strain?

With any virus it could take up to a year to mass produce it and distribute it. This is eerily similar to the scenario in the the movie “Contagion”. It’s a pretty good movie, and more than a little unsettling.




“Remember to get vaccinated or a vaccinated person might get sick from a virus they got vaccinated against because you’re not vaccinated.” - author unknown
 
Posts: 13910 | Location: Martinsburg WV | Registered: April 02, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Fighting the good fight
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quote:
Originally posted by radioman:
How long before a "flu shot" is developed which includes this strain?


The National Institutes of Health estimates May 2020 for completion of vaccine research and beginning of animal/human testing.

So sometime after mid-2020 before it's available to start mass production and distribution.

But it's all a guess at this point, and any number of things could affect that timeline. For the 2003 SARS outbreak, it took 20 months before a vaccine was completed, although a lot may have changed in the intervening 17 years.
 
Posts: 29423 | Location: Northwest Arkansas | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Came across this. Subtitles available. what little I understand, subtitles seem right.

Seems like a wuhan resident appealing for international pressure for local gov to help.


https://youtu.be/wEkIdGht-S8




"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - B.Franklin
"Wrong does not cease to be wrong because the majority share in it." L.Tolstoy
"A government is just a body of people, usually, notably, ungoverned." Shepherd Book
 
Posts: 11252 | Location: In the gilded cage | Registered: December 09, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Bolt Thrower
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Posts: 9580 | Location: Woodinville, WA | Registered: March 30, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Only the strong survive
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Posts: 11398 | Location: Herndon, VA | Registered: June 11, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I will be succinct:

This virus could be dangerous!

The fact that it can be human to human transmission alone scares the crap out of me.

Forum members- Please, follow this outbreak carefully and protect yourself and your loved ones by any means necessary.


No quarter
.308/.223
 
Posts: 2017 | Location: Central Florida.  | Registered: March 04, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lighten up and laugh
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The flu can kill a healthy person, so hopefully people are already be taking precautions like washing their hands and limiting time in public. Past that you can only pray and live your life.
 
Posts: 7787 | Registered: September 29, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Nullus Anxietas
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quote:
Originally posted by Ackks:
The flu can kill a healthy person, so hopefully people are already be taking precautions like washing their hands and limiting time in public. Past that you can only pray and live your life.

My wife and I are always cautious--particularly during cold and flu season. We have to be particularly careful because she cannot afford to get (too) sick. She's deathly allergic to most antibiotics.

As of Friday evening we bumped our "defcon" level up a notch. One result of which was we took a pass on the home show we had planned to attend today and instead went shopping to stock the larder a bit deeper.

We already had a box of surgical masks on hand "just in case." I've now got some highly-rated more sylish masks should arrive Tuesday or so. Next bump in our preventative measures will see us wearing those when we have to go out (and I do mean have to), and going out "two by two, hands of blue."

As I wrote, earlier: Neither of us is usually apt to get too excited about whatever's going around. Can't say why, exactly, but, this time the spidey senses for both of us are tingling just a bit.




"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
"If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
"The dominant media is no more ``mainstream`` than leftists are liberals." -- me
 
Posts: 23206 | Location: S.E. Michigan | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Originally posted by ensigmatic:
My wife and I are always cautious--particularly during cold and flu season. We have to be particularly careful because she cannot afford to get (too) sick. She's deathly allergic to most antibiotics.


Good news then: Antibiotics are ineffective against viruses like the flu, the common cold, or this new coronavirus.

Antibiotics are used to treat bacterial infections, not viral infections.
 
Posts: 29423 | Location: Northwest Arkansas | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Nullus Anxietas
Picture of ensigmatic
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quote:
Originally posted by RogueJSK:
Good news then: Antibiotics are ineffective against viruses like the flu, the common cold, or this new coronavirus.

Antibiotics are used to treat bacterial infections, not viral infections.

Yes, we know that. But the bad news is viral infections can, and sometimes do, lead to bacterial infections. Then you need antibiotics.




"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
"If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
"The dominant media is no more ``mainstream`` than leftists are liberals." -- me
 
Posts: 23206 | Location: S.E. Michigan | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lighten up and laugh
Picture of Ackks
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by ensigmatic:

My wife and I are always cautious--particularly during cold and flu season. We have to be particularly careful because she cannot afford to get (too) sick. She's deathly allergic to most antibiotics.

As of Friday evening we bumped our "defcon" level up a notch. One result of which was we took a pass on the home show we had planned to attend today and instead went shopping to stock the larder a bit deeper.

We already had a box of surgical masks on hand "just in case." I've now got some highly-rated more sylish masks should arrive Tuesday or so. Next bump in our preventative measures will see us wearing those when we have to go out (and I do mean have to), and going out "two by two, hands of blue."

As I wrote, earlier: Neither of us is usually apt to get too excited about whatever's going around. Can't say why, exactly, but, this time the spidey senses for both of us are tingling just a bit.

Follow promptings when you get them. Maybe it will help keep you safe for this virus or maybe the precautions you take will keep you away from another illness that could take one of you down.
 
Posts: 7787 | Registered: September 29, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I have been watching this develop because I've done a lot of business travel in China, including a few times to Wuhan. I have friends in Wuhan, my company has an R&D center there, and one of our U.S. employees is stuck there now.

The old adage "don't listen to what they say, watch what they do" applies here.

A few days ago all air traffic, trains, and roads in and out of Wuhan were closed, sealing it off for the most part. As stated earlier, the quarantine has been expanded to multiple cities including around 50M people. The entire province of Hubei is probably next. Thursday morning all internal public transport in Wuhan was shut down - subway, buses, etc. People are being told to stay home and avoid contact with others. Lunar New Year celebrations were cancelled in many places, including Beijing. Face masks to help prevent transmission are common.

Lunar New Year is like Thanksgiving, Christmas, and calendar New Year's all rolled into one, with fireworks that make 4th of July look like children's sparklers. So canceling it and banning travel is unprecedented. Imagine a similar quarantine and holiday cancellation here. But it may be too late to avoid a larger outbreak.

Confirmed cases and deaths are just that - confirmed. There aren't enough hospitals, doctors, and blood testing capacity to know how many people are infected, or how many have died from it. Due to the two week incubation, infected people have already been identified in many countries in East and SE Asia, and as far as U.S. and Australia. And it is already known that the Chinese government understates numbers all the time - so a good rule of thumb I have been taught by Chinese friend is to multiply everything they say by 10.

All we can do is wait and see what happens...
 
Posts: 4374 | Location: Indiana | Registered: December 28, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
An investment in knowledge
pays the best interest
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quote:
Originally posted by Voshterkoff:
https://www.nature.com/news/in...us-pathogens-1.21487

What are the odds?

Odds = Zero.

I worked for the only organization, which is based in the U.S., responsible for logistics pertaining to all BSL-4 biomaterials worldwide. If that lab was operational, let alone had something remotely similar, we’d know it.

I highly recommend to anyone who is concerned to follow developments on what is a level 1 disease (normal viral precautions) via the CDC’s website:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronaviru...html#risk-assessment

Listen to the experts folks and not the armchair pundits.


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Posts: 3096 | Location: Mid-Atlantic | Registered: December 27, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Only the strong survive
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Posts: 11398 | Location: Herndon, VA | Registered: June 11, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
An investment in knowledge
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quote:
Originally posted by RogueJSK:
Now, I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but there's a good chance that it is significantly worse than is being reported. Partly because the incubation period of the virus is reportedly rather lengthy at ~14 days, so many of those that are currently infected may not yet be symptomatic. But mostly because the Chinese government and state-run media aren't exactly known for their transparency and honesty.

There are (as yet unverified) online reports from purported Chinese medical workers within that area that the number of infected people is exponentially larger than the 1000 or so cases that the Chinese government is claiming... Many tens of thousands to possibly hundreds of thousands, potentially. 90,000 is a number that is being repeated with some regularity. And modeling simulations by epidemiologists at the University of Lancaster in the UK puts it at an estimated 250,000 infected by next week, based on what we know of the confirmed current infected and the transmission/incubation of the virus itself, with the real possibility that as much as 10% of the Chinese population could be infected by the end of next month. (And those simulations were based on the initial numbers provided by the Chinese government, which we've established could be wildly off.)

So far, it has been reported to be fatal in about 4% of confirmed cases (~40 out of ~1000). If that is accurate, that mortality rate holds true, and 10% of the Chinese population is eventually infected, that'd be about 5.5 million dead in just China alone... And that 4% mortality rate was with these patients receiving medical care, which could mean that the rate spikes once the overall Chinese medical system becomes overrun with patients.

Where are your epidemiology figures from? What are the inputs that were used in the Lancaster model? What do other models show? What was the health condition of those that contracted the virus, who succumbed? How is it that the only validated PCR test for the strain that is now in use, was released to labs WW on Jan 21st... yet there are claims of a 14 day incubation period? How accurate do you think that claim is if it’s been less than two weeks since an apparently accurate test was available?
If you don’t have a sufficient means of discriminating between the flu and the onset of 2019-nCoV or perhaps another respiratory illness, it’s difficult to estimate the replication number in a mixed general pop’n.


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Posts: 3096 | Location: Mid-Atlantic | Registered: December 27, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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