quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:
That’s it, deflect and don’t answer the question: do you believe the experts? If so, why say the Chinese aren’t communicating?

That is a separate question. While the Chinese have a long history of prevarication, I suppose it is possible that for the first time in over 5000 years of recorded history that they are being completely honest. However, experience and common sense would lead one the assess that theoretical possibility has having a probability which is asymptotically approaching zero (0).

As to why Western officials might publicly state that the Chinese are fully cooperating? For one there may not yet be a body of evidence that this time the Chinese are not fully cooperating. Further, Western institutions obviously have a legitimate interest in encouraging as much honest cooperation as possible and in not making the Chinese feel isolated and disrespected.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Fenris,

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:

quote:

Originally posted by tiwimon:
.... fatalities are increasing much more exponential than SARS.

SARS had 600 deaths, so far only 80 have succumbed to the 2019-nCov... so what’s the difference in numbers again? Do you know what the definition of exponential is?

MOST of those infected get the sniffles. Meanwhile, like many human viruses, those who are immuno-compromised are the ones suffering the greatest consequences and one should always take precuations when presented with such circumstances.

Keep On Cluckin’

As I come across your posts, they strike me as smarmy and smug - some peoples posts while off putting are right on at least adding merit yet yours lacks actual value, substance or merit other than just attacking in a subtle yet douchey way - I know what exponential means and I meant it in the exact way I understand it to be.

---

ex·po·nen·tial
/ˌekspəˈnen(t)SH(ə)l/
Learn to pronounce
adjective
1.
(of an increase) becoming more and more rapid.
"the social security budget was rising at an exponential rate"

---

The numbers and charts I continue to see are rising more and more rapidly (see definition above...) as the timeline continues - hence my use of exponential. I reviewed tons of feeds, numbers and charts last night and I wont try to find the one that overlapped SARS to Wuhan which was even more obvious in regards to being exponential than the one below, but the below is substance enough in and of itself.

This chart of Deaths vs Cured after Wuhan virus infection shows the uptick Jan 19th to 21st as trending up - 4 - 6 - 9 but then from the 21st it more and more rapid (as per the definition of exponential I might add...) going from 9 to 17 to 24 to a jump of 39 then 52 then 76 with the last 4 data points (single days being far more rapid each day)

As a side note - I will also add the use of cured is wrong to me at least - it should be recovered - as there is no cure. They received medical treatment which alleviated the surrounding medical complications from the coronavirus and thus recovered

ETA - edited

^^^ Asking what appear to be tough questions must be off-putting and I'm glad I was able to get you to define how you were using "exponential".

Yeah, providing the link to the CDC site was stupid wasn't it, b/c that's not substantive... no, you'd rather people just listen to your opinions w/o evidence and with a lot of hyperbole.

quote:

Originally posted by Fenris:
So... Real question...

Does anyone know how long Corona Virus typically survive on surfaces, suspended in air, or in water?

Seems like it might be useful to know.

According to NIH, run-of-the-mill coronavirus can survive 2 days with very little loss of infectivity. The implication being it could well survive days or even weeks and remain infectious, depending on RH. The SARS CoV reportedly retained viability up to 5 days dried on plastic surfaces at average temp and humidity, and in an air-conditioned environment over 2 weeks (in liquid almost a month), so that might be a marker to start with. Significant transmission by fomites (surfaces) is more than a good bet.

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:
^^^ Asking what appear to be tough questions must be off-putting and I'm glad I was able to get you to define how you were using "exponential".

Yeah, providing the link to the CDC site was stupid wasn't it, b/c that's not substantive... no, you'd rather people just listen to your opinions w/o evidence and with a lot of hyperbole.

I didn't see a question in your post - and its not my issue you lack critical thinking and deductive reasoning in regards to a simple statement I made that deaths have been exponential - that statement I made supports itself to anyone that can deduce direct statements in regards to my use of exponential

and if everyone on a forum cannot post opinions but had to post facts, charts or bibliographies then forums wouldn't be what they are other than academic sessions. JFC - as others have asked of you - lighten up Francis

quote:

Originally posted by Fenris:
Masks are already unavailable from most sources. Probably hand sanitizer as well or soon to be unavailable.

Which is why I ordered the masks I did, when I did. Not because I believe we'll need them, but because I believe we might. By the time we know, it'll be too late.

Hand sanitizer? Meh. Not particularly effective, by most accounts. I'm not even certain we have any in the house.

quote:

Originally posted by Fenris:

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:

quote:

Originally posted by Fenris:
Just a reminder, everyone who had even the mildest case of the 1918 Flu is now dead.

How many strains of the Spanish Flu were there since you’re referencing the mildest? Given the totality of that comment, I can tell you it’s patently false. 100% didn’t die who were infected... It was between 10 and 20%.

Lighten up Francis. It was a joke. The 1918 Flu was over 100 years ago. 99.99876% of EVERYONE who had the 1918 Flu would be dead by now simply due to time. No one lives forever.

Which just goes to show leftists don't have a monopoly on humorlessness

I'd expect this thread to be an interesting insight to the topic for more than just the past week. Any chance folks could throttle down the rhetoric before we're looking at a padlock?

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:
According to NIH, run-of-the-mill coronavirus can survive 2 days with very little loss of infectivity. The implication being it could well survive days or even weeks and remain infectious, depending on RH.

Thanks. I just found this, which does not paint a pretty picture.

quote:

Effects of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity on Coronavirus Survival on Surfaces
~American Society for Microbiology (ASM)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

At 4°C (39°F), infectious virus persisted for as long as 28 days, and the lowest level of inactivation occurred at 20% RH. Inactivation was more rapid at 20°C (68°F) than at 4°C (39°F) at all humidity levels; the viruses persisted for 5 to 28 days, and the slowest inactivation occurred at low RH. Both viruses were inactivated more rapidly at 40°C (104°F) than at 20°C (68°F). The relationship between inactivation and RH was not monotonic, and there was greater survival or a greater protective effect at low RH (20%) and high RH (80%) than at moderate RH (50%).

I would also note... [Deleted upon re-reading text. Oops, I got it backwards.]

Italicized temperature figures in the quoted text are mine. Long live the Archaic English Measurement System.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by Fenris:
Masks are already unavailable from most sources. Probably hand sanitizer as well or soon to be unavailable.

Which is why I ordered the masks I did, when I did. Not because I believe we'll need them, but because I believe we might. By the time we know, it'll be too late.

I have some as well. However, I probably would not have sufficient quantities to cover 4-5 family members over a period of time as short as even one to two weeks. I suppose if it actually got bad, the solution would be to just stay home and eat Spam.

Of course, as I mentioned earlier, given the possibly of a 14 day infectious, pre-symptomatic period, the time to stay home is 14 days prior to the virus becoming widespread. Good luck predicting two weeks early when/if that will occur.

quote:

Originally posted by Georgeair:
I'd expect this thread to be an interesting insight to the topic for more than just the past week. Any chance folks could throttle down the rhetoric before we're looking at a padlock?

That would be fantastic. Para already said “ok, guys” on the last page. That’s usually what you call a clue.

Not sure what the emotional investment some have in this. Maybe some others just want to talk about it.

What are the types/specs of effective masks? I know we're not talking about simple paper dust masks. What about the thicker, heavier respirator types found in hardware stores?

Doesn't all of this seem quite familiar?

quote:

Originally posted by amals:
What are the types/specs of effective masks? I know we're not talking about simple paper dust masks. What about the thicker, heavier respirator types found in hardware stores?

If you so choose to use masks, N95 or better would be the ones the CDC recommends for healthcare professionals who come in contact with infected individuals.

if it comes down to it, not screwing around with paper masks. Bringing home these from work...

Breathing through the filters on any other respirator is hard work. rechargeable fan blowing purified air into the head piece is the way to go...

Maybe I’m a Luddite. This doesn’t scare me in the slightest. The flu. It always kills every year. This appears to be a more virulent variety. It still just ends up being the flu to most people. I let myself get a little worried about the Ebola. Then I watched as modern medicine pretty much made it it’s bitch. Don’t cuddle with the dead body of family members, wear gloves, wash your hands, stay hydrated, etc and the death toll shrinks incredibly. I say this as one of those compromised individuals who are at most risk, currently on my second round of chemo.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Doesn't all of this seem quite familiar?

Certainly. I'm still trying to recover emotionally from the Ebola Panic. But there's always a chance this will be the Big One. Or not.

My kids play this weird game on their cell phones where you try to create a pathogen that wipes out all human life. They tell me that in the game, a long infectious incubation period is the number one predictor of success.

Found it! was driving me bonkers trying to locate this one chart I was referencing earlier and could not find - and to me is a bit more telling of why China has been more proactive with this over SARS -[assuming this chart and the data are valid] - My guess is by the time we get to where SARS drew down - SARS numbers will be much smaller before this is over unfortunately and I believe will impact many indirectly even well outside the direct impacts - as I just read this article that some factories are now closing among them Johnson & Johnson, Samsung and FoxConn



Chart from here and one of the comments by the poster of the chart in twitter sums it up - definitely a far more worrying trend than SARS was


"@BNODesk,@ELINTNews,@lookner
Have a look at the above data comparison. Another way of comparing SARS and #Wuhan virus:

"It took almost two months for SARS to spread to 456 people" (source: CNBC)

vs

2000 confirmed Wuhan coronavirus infections within 1 month!"




//ETA - and if the talk of incubation being up to 14 days - and infectious during the incubation - that means the minimum safe period would factor in that 14 days - so this could drag on some time just in shutdowns and quarantines alone

quote:

Originally posted by RAMIUS:

quote:

Originally posted by amals:
What are the types/specs of effective masks? I know we're not talking about simple paper dust masks. What about the thicker, heavier respirator types found in hardware stores?

If you so choose to use masks, N95 or better would be the ones the CDC recommends for healthcare professionals who come in contact with infected individuals.

Thanks. I'm certainly not ready to panic, but I use masks at work and was wondering if they were sufficient just...in...case.

quote:

Originally posted by pedropcola:
Maybe I’m a Luddite. This doesn’t scare me in the slightest.

Being a Luddite refers to somebody with a fear, distrust or dislike of modern technology.

quote:

Originally posted by pedropcola:
Don’t cuddle with the dead body of family members, wear gloves, wash your hands, stay hydrated, etc and the death toll shrinks incredibly.

As well as good nutrition. Adequate sleep. Possibly a mask if being exposed to large crowds for extended times. Of course. And that's all anybody's really talking about. Well, except for feersum dreadnaught, who appears to be about to go over the top

This one has us a bit more concerned than SARS did, or the annual flu scare does, but it's not like I'm stocking-up on MREs and out back in an environmental hazard suit laying out the plans for the bunker

I am taking reasonable precautions, though. Stocked up on essentials, Saturday:



(There's actually a Corona, buried somewhere back there behind the Amber Ale .)

Putting it all in perspective, and recalling what my micro prof told me years ago: the bugs will, eventually, win. For three reasons:

1. They're little.
2. They're cunning.
and
3. They got no feelin's.