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When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2) Login/Join 
Member
Picture of bigdeal
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by mutedblade:
Can someone help me with some math?

The latest COVID tracker is saying 6,059 deaths in the US

Out of 245,175 confirmed cases.

So if you do 6,059 / 245,175 I am coming up with a death rate of .0247. Let's go ahead and round that up to .025%. 1/40th of a percent. That's not even close to 2-5% that I see some of you guys using. Am I missing something or is my math just not adding up?
The truth of the matter is it's even lower than that at this specific moment in time. How much, who knows, but there are likely thousands upon thousands of people who have the virus and have not been tested, and likely thousands more who have had it, recovered from it, and were never tested. So the 'actual' fatality rate is a total unknown at the moment, and may never be fully known even when this crisis has subsided. Again, the people throwing around numbers and estimates right now are doing everyone a huge disservice.


-----------------------------
Guns are awesome because they shoot solid lead freedom. Every man should have several guns. And several dogs, because a man with a cat is a woman. Kurt Schlichter
 
Posts: 33845 | Location: Orlando, FL | Registered: April 30, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of 2BobTanner
posted Hide Post
https://www.whas11.com/article...10-9351-030dd0954387

A new organization (COVID Act Now) that I’ve never heard of before is now being quoted by the Democrat Kentucky Gov with more drastic numbers. I searched the organization’s name and found some suspicious political leanings of its founders. Convenient that they just showed up and have made a big splash.

Color me SUSPICIOUS about them and their motives.


---------------------
DJT-45/47 MAGA !!!!!

"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it." — Mark Twain

“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.” — H. L. Mencken
 
Posts: 2847 | Location: Falls of the Ohio River, Kain-tuk-e | Registered: January 13, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Peace through
superior firepower
Picture of parabellum
posted Hide Post
 
Posts: 110047 | Registered: January 20, 2000Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Ammoholic
Picture of Skins2881
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Fenris:
quote:
Originally posted by Icabod:
Read an interesting slant on the toilet paper shortage.

The summery is that with all of us at home the toilet paper consumption has gone up an estimated 40% accordingly, the consumption at work has dropped significantly.

Toilet paper has two markets, business and home...

This same logic can be used to explain food shortages in grocery stores. As people switch to home food, they purchase more food from grocery stores. All the reasons why it is difficult to reallocate commercial TP to home apply to redirecting wholesale food to retail grocery stores.


I always have cooked dinner at home other than ordering pizza every now and then, but I would eat at fast food or at delis every single day while at work. I stopped eating any food out 6+ weeks ago. So I am going through way more groceries than normal.

The one thing I didn't figure out, while I was still working and went from eating a combo meal with a coke to turkey, ham, or roast beef and cheese sammys, why didn't I loose any weight? I ate pretty damn healthy for a month and didn't drop a single pound, probably saving 400 calories a day. Strange.



Jesse

Sic Semper Tyrannis
 
Posts: 21336 | Location: Loudoun County, Virginia | Registered: December 27, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of bigdeal
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by sdy:
data from NY

100,000 confirmed cases in a little over 3 weeks
This number can be believed with some level of confidence.
quote:
Death rate rising to 2.9%
This number is complete BS. New York has no clue how many people have the virus currently so they have no accurate means to provide such an estimate.

If they want to report on confirmed cases and actual deaths fine. But there isn't adequate data available to accurately extrapolate beyond those numbers.


-----------------------------
Guns are awesome because they shoot solid lead freedom. Every man should have several guns. And several dogs, because a man with a cat is a woman. Kurt Schlichter
 
Posts: 33845 | Location: Orlando, FL | Registered: April 30, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Fortified with Sleestak
Picture of thunderson
posted Hide Post
I saw the Martin video a few days ago. I love the fact that he just hits record, plays a good tune, and hit's stop. Just being a cool dude.



I have the heart of a lion.......and a lifetime ban from the Toronto Zoo.- Unknown
 
Posts: 5371 | Location: Shenandoah Valley, VA | Registered: November 05, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie
Picture of Balzé Halzé
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by bigdeal:
The truth of the matter is it's even lower than that at this specific moment in time. How much, who knows, but there are likely thousands upon thousands of people who have the virus and have not been tested, and likely thousands more who have had it, recovered from it, and were never tested. So the 'actual' fatality rate is a total unknown at the moment, and may never be fully known even when this crisis has subsided. Again, the people throwing around numbers and estimates right now are doing everyone a huge disservice.


But instead of taking a traditional course of action of isolating the old and vulnerable, and for the rest to practice common sense cleanliness and hygiene but otherwise keep the economy chugging along, we went full on Fauci and used incomplete data to destroy the economy in short order and financially ruin millions of people and businesses.


~Alan

Acta Non Verba
NRA Life Member (Patron)
God, Family, Guns, Country

Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan

 
Posts: 31166 | Location: Elv. 7,000 feet, Utah | Registered: October 29, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Oh stewardess,
I speak jive.
Picture of 46and2
posted Hide Post
We need more banjo.
 
Posts: 25613 | Registered: March 12, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
paradox in a box
Picture of frayedends
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by bigdeal:
quote:
Originally posted by mutedblade:
Can someone help me with some math?

The latest COVID tracker is saying 6,059 deaths in the US

Out of 245,175 confirmed cases.

So if you do 6,059 / 245,175 I am coming up with a death rate of .0247. Let's go ahead and round that up to .025%. 1/40th of a percent. That's not even close to 2-5% that I see some of you guys using. Am I missing something or is my math just not adding up?
The truth of the matter is it's even lower than that at this specific moment in time. How much, who knows, but there are likely thousands upon thousands of people who have the virus and have not been tested, and likely thousands more who have had it, recovered from it, and were never tested. So the 'actual' fatality rate is a total unknown at the moment, and may never be fully known even when this crisis has subsided. Again, the people throwing around numbers and estimates right now are doing everyone a huge disservice.


I don’t believe the numbers because deaths are being reported as Covid deaths even if cause of death is not Covid but person tests positive. Also most people are not symptomatic and aren’t tested. That being said the math above is wrong. Have to multiply by 100 for percentage. That’s 2.5%.




These go to eleven.
 
Posts: 12605 | Location: Westminster, MA | Registered: November 14, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
"Member"
Picture of cas
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by bigdeal:
New York has no clue how many people have the virus currently so they have no accurate means to provide such an estimate.


We have more cases not just because of population density, but we're probably testing more people than anywhere else. I need to get some photos of the giant drive through test site near my place of employment. (same place the Army Corp of engineers and various contractors are currently throwing up two giant field hospitals, at a shocking rate of speed I might add)


_____________________________________________________
Sliced bread, the greatest thing since the 1911.

 
Posts: 21505 | Location: 18th & Fairfax  | Registered: May 17, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by bigdeal:
quote:
Originally posted by sdy:
data from NY

100,000 confirmed cases in a little over 3 weeks
This number can be believed with some level of confidence.
quote:
Death rate rising to 2.9%
This number is complete BS. New York has no clue how many people have the virus currently so they have no accurate means to provide such an estimate.

If they want to report on confirmed cases and actual deaths fine. But there isn't adequate data available to accurately extrapolate beyond those numbers.


No doubt there are serious issues in NY, but if press report I saw is correct, the numbers are either wildly inflated.... or if true, Cuomo and company are totally and criminally negligent.. The USN Hospital ship Comfort only has 20 beds in use out of the available 1000.
 
Posts: 887 | Location: North Carolina | Registered: December 14, 2019Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Ammoholic
Picture of Skins2881
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by 46and2:
We need more banjo.


I wouldn't object.

I did realize that wat that Steve Martin. If he had an eye patch on, I would have instantly recognized him.



Jesse

Sic Semper Tyrannis
 
Posts: 21336 | Location: Loudoun County, Virginia | Registered: December 27, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lawyers, Guns
and Money
Picture of chellim1
posted Hide Post
quote:
No doubt there are serious issues in NY, but if press report I saw is correct, the numbers are either wildly inflated.... or if true, Cuomo and company are totally and criminally negligent.. The USN Hospital ship Comfort only has 20 beds in use out of the available 1000.

Now they are reconsidering allowing COVID-19 patients on the ship....



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
 
Posts: 24868 | Location: St. Louis, MO | Registered: April 03, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of bigdeal
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by frayedends:
quote:
Originally posted by bigdeal:
quote:
Originally posted by mutedblade:
Can someone help me with some math?

The latest COVID tracker is saying 6,059 deaths in the US

Out of 245,175 confirmed cases.

So if you do 6,059 / 245,175 I am coming up with a death rate of .0247. Let's go ahead and round that up to .025%. 1/40th of a percent. That's not even close to 2-5% that I see some of you guys using. Am I missing something or is my math just not adding up?
The truth of the matter is it's even lower than that at this specific moment in time. How much, who knows, but there are likely thousands upon thousands of people who have the virus and have not been tested, and likely thousands more who have had it, recovered from it, and were never tested. So the 'actual' fatality rate is a total unknown at the moment, and may never be fully known even when this crisis has subsided. Again, the people throwing around numbers and estimates right now are doing everyone a huge disservice.


I don’t believe the numbers because deaths are being reported as Covid deaths even if cause of death is not Covid but person tests positive. Also most people are not symptomatic and aren’t tested. That being said the math above is wrong. Have to multiply by 100 for percentage. That’s 2.5%.
There's a reason I didn't take issue with the math or correct it because ultimately its irrelevant based on the other comments I posted. There is no data available at this point in time to accurately extrapolate anything approaching accurate estimates. Period.


-----------------------------
Guns are awesome because they shoot solid lead freedom. Every man should have several guns. And several dogs, because a man with a cat is a woman. Kurt Schlichter
 
Posts: 33845 | Location: Orlando, FL | Registered: April 30, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of mikeyspizza
posted Hide Post
Walmart to hop on the Home Depot bandwagon beginning tomorrow, limiting the number of people in the store at one time, but taking it a step further and making all the aisles one-way. Walmart

Sam's is "encouraging" members to limit it to 2 people per membership at a time.
 
Posts: 4089 | Location: North Carolina | Registered: August 16, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Oh stewardess,
I speak jive.
Picture of 46and2
posted Hide Post
I drove past a Sonic earlier, and it was full... in every other spot. Could've been coincidence, of course, but it looked like folks just figured it out on their own and followed suit. Nothing was keeping anyone from parking in between, but no one did on either side.
 
Posts: 25613 | Registered: March 12, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Seeker of Clarity
Picture of r0gue
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
<Steve and his Banjo>


That was wonderful! Thanks Smile




 
Posts: 11468 | Registered: August 02, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Go ahead punk, make my day
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by mikeyspizza:
and making all the aisles one-way.
Shit, that was SOP in the Navy Commissaries back in the day, God forbid you went the 'wrong way', those little Filipino ladies wouldn't let you hear the end of it!
 
Posts: 45798 | Registered: July 12, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Why don’t you fix your little
problem and light this candle
Picture of redstone
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by mikeyspizza:
Walmart to hop on the Home Depot bandwagon beginning tomorrow, limiting the number of people in the store at one time, but taking it a step further and making all the aisles one-way. ...


at 180,000 sqft on average per store: "Stores will now allow no more than five customers for each 1,000 square feet at a given time, roughly 20 percent of a store’s capacity." so how many will be allowed in the store?



This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it. -Rear Admiral (Lower Half) Joshua Painter Played by Senator Fred Thompson
 
Posts: 3694 | Location: Central Virginia | Registered: November 06, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
Thank you Para, for some Steve Martin sanity...
 
Posts: 439 | Location: Youngsville, NC | Registered: April 18, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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