quote:

Originally posted by mikeyspizza:
Walmart to hop on the Home Depot bandwagon beginning tomorrow, limiting the number of people in the store at one time, but taking it a step further and making all the aisles one-way. Walmart

Sam's is "encouraging" members to limit it to 2 people per membership at a time.

Just got back from Costco, 50-min wait...line was nearly 100yds given all the distancing and leaving room for traffic. They actually had a fair amount of stuff...chicken, some paper goods, thermometers, baking supplies... I wasn't in any hurry, listen to a few podcasts, sent out a few emails. With less people inside, there was less of the hoarding insanity that you saw two weeks ago. Check-out aisles are every other one open, splatter shields at the cash wrap, employees wiping down every cart.

Local paper ran an article on it, here are their numbers:

Christiansburg - 200,004 square feet - 1,000 customers allowed in the store at a time
Roanoke - Bonsack - 183,960 square feet - 919.8 customers allowed in the store at at time
Roanoke - Clearbrook - 187,130 square feet - 935.65 customers allowed in the store at a time
Roanoke - Neighborhood Market (Dale Avenue) - 42,164 square feet - 210 customers allowed in the store at a time
Roanoke - Valley View - 206,978 square feet - 1,034.89 customers allowed in the store at a time
Salem - 187,074 square feet - 935.37 customers allowed in the store at a time

Honestly, I really doubt there are 1000 people in the store anyway.

I have to think this will ramp up the hoarding again. People are going to not want to wait an hour in line and will buy weeks worth of stuff when they go.

quote:

Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
I have to think this will ramp up the hoarding again. People are going to not want to wait an hour in line and will buy weeks worth of stuff when they go.

There will no doubt be limits on how much one can purchase. In fact, that's already in effect.

A great video of Steve! He's a very good player. Thanks for posting, para!

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Erick85:
Watching today’s briefing and Trump is trying to explain what “our” means to a reporter. Really?

I caught the tail end of that. They were basically wanting all vents to be sent to New York. Trump had to state he had responsibility for the country, not just NY, and that NY would not give them back to others in time of need. That and the whole " what about illegals ?" I wanted to hear that American citizens will die because people that should not be here are using the sparse equipment. But no one asked that question

quote:

This number is complete BS

No. it is just not the statistic you want. You are asking for the fatality rate for everyone who has coronavirus. We may never know that number.

What we do know and are tracking, is the number of deaths and the number of confirmed cases. These numbers are important to estimate how much hospital care will be needed.

NY has 2935 deaths. The confirmed cases are at 103,060

That death rate is 2.8%

Models exist to estimate the growth of the confirmed cases. We are about to see how good those models are.

People experience fever and shortness of breath (and maybe some other symptoms). That triggers a test. If they are positive they become part of the confirmed.

The NY confirmed number is doubling now about every 5 to 6 days. Hopefully it is going to taper off much more soon.

So if you want to argue that 2.8% is the current rate for NY for people who have tested positive, I think that would be true.

The current number of "active cases in NY" is 103,060 - 2935 - 6622 = 93, 503 for the set of people who have been confirmed.

I agree there are probably many more active cases that are outside the confirmed set, but knowing that will require extensive testing of people without any symptoms

I'm struggling to understand all this like everyone else. Above are my thoughts right now

adding an important input re the modeling

https://www.breitbart.com/poli...odeling-predictions/

Statistical models attempting to predict the impact of the Chinese coronavirus – used by governments to make critical policy decisions – rely on dubious data from the Chinese Communist Party, Breitbart News confirmed on Friday.

A growing number of experts – including Vice President Mike Pence and members of his coronavirus task force – have questioned the legitimacy of China’s official coronavirus death toll and infection rate.

The White House-touted model created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington relies on “an extensive range of information and data source,” including the WHO and “age-specific death rate data from China, Italy, South Korea, and the U.S.” to forecast how the virus will unfold in the United States, Breitbart News learned from the institute.

On Wednesday, U.S. Vice-President Mike Pence pointed out to CNN that to arrive at its projection that 100,000 to 240,000 people could die from the coronavirus illness (COVID-19), the Trump administration is heavily relying on data from Italy, the first Western nation with a high number of cases.

Pence noted that the Trump administration has modeled “what’s happened around the world. We think Italy may be the most comparable area to the United States at this point, for a variety of reasons.”

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


note that the IHME model predicts U.S. deaths of 93,531 by Aug 2020 (low of 40,000 to a high of 178,000)

The WH is more heavily relying on Italy data for death forecasts and estimating from about the 93,531 number for a low, but a high 2.7 times that.

We are sailing in unchartered waters

It’s really unfortunate that we can’t trust a single thing out of China anymore. Hopefully people’s eyes open because of this shit storm and we remember that China can’t be trusted for anything. They could have prevented this whole pandemic had they just not been a bunch of shitbags and told the truth instead of covering it up.

quote:

Originally posted by sdy:

quote:

This number is complete BS

No. it is just not the statistic you want.

No, I don't want certain statistics at all right now because I know they will be invalid given current circumstances and incomplete datasets.

quote:

What we do know and are tracking, is the number of deaths and the number of confirmed cases.

Which again are numbers I'm not drawing too many issues with.

quote:

These numbers are important to estimate how much hospital care will be needed.

Only to a degree. Again, not knowing the total infected population dataset, this calculation is little more than a compiled guess based on incomplete data. I would however agree its about the only thing NY can do right now to try and guesstimate anything regarding the virus and its medical demands. I just wish people (not you, but politicians and media types) would be a bit more accurate in how they describe these numbers (i.e. stop asserting they are more absolute, and start asserting they are nothing more than statistical guesses based on inadequate/incomplete data).

quote:

NY has 2935 deaths. The confirmed cases are at 103,060

That death rate is 2.8%

And again, I'm not even completely buying the death count at this point given we already have instances of people dying from other causes but being classified as virus related deaths. In such a small dataset (i.e. deaths), even a very small deviation dramatically skews the numbers. So no, the mortality rate is 'not' 2.8%. What is it? As I've noted previously, I have no idea, but common sense tells one that it's lower than 2.8% considering the entire population of those infected. That's a positive and should be noted often in these ridiculous news conferences.

quote:

People experience fever and shortness of breath (and maybe some other symptoms). That triggers a test. If they are positive they become part of the confirmed.

Something yet to be fully addressed, I watched an interview with a doctor that indicated that Coronavirus antibodies (those that testing is designed to identify) may exist in the bodies of those who have recovered from the virus, but could still show up in testing results as positive. 'If' that is true, there's another factor that could/would skew both datasets and any calculated estimates about confirmed cases.

quote:

So if you want to argue that 2.8% is the current rate for NY for people who have tested positive, I think that would be true.

Personally, I don't wish to argue with you at all. I'm simply stating a different opinion/position based upon being a past senior analyst who dealt with with complex statistical modeling on almost a daily basis. There are still lots of holes in the data/models, and lots of assumptions and guesses are being used to plug those holes.

quote:

I'm struggling to understand all this like everyone else. Above are my thoughts right now

As are all of us. myself included. I simply see lots of holes in the logic and analysis many of these experts are basing their models/predictions on, and which political morons are making sweeping nationwide decisions on.

quote:

Originally posted by Largefarva:
It’s really unfortunate that we can’t trust a single thing out of China anymore. Hopefully people’s eyes open because of this shit storm and we remember that China can’t be trusted for anything. They could have prevented this whole pandemic had they just not been a bunch of shitbags and told the truth instead of covering it up.

Chinese deceit is only a part of the problem. We can't trust 'any' of their information because we know (at least anyone with a working frontal lobe knows) they're lying big time on this one. But consider Italy. I don't think they're lying to us, but I also don't think their data is very helpful or remotely accurate based on all the irregularities already identified in it (i.e. misclassifications of deaths, age and health of population, etc). Then there's use of data from some of the nordic countries where average ages, health of the population, and other factors make their numbers only somewhat useful.

Ultimately, until we get far enough down the road to have compiled extensive data here in the US, we will not have accurate models on anything related to this virus.

COVID-19 Puts ICU Sedatives Into Shortage

https://www.medpagetoday.com/i...isease/covid19/85796

The FDA has declared shortages for critical ICU sedation drugs midazolam and ketamine due to high demand for COVID-19 coronavirus patients.

Demand rose at least 51% in March for common sedatives and anesthetics used in the ICU -- propofol, dexmedetomidine, etomidate, ketamine, lorazepam, and midazolam, but the fill rate dropped to 63% before the end of the month, according to data from Vizient, the group purchasing organization for about half of U.S. acute care centers, reported by STAT.

For midazolam, the FDA's drug shortage page noted that Akorn Pharmaceuticals said it cannot supply the market demand and that Fresenius Kabi reported that it still has the drug available but is seeing increased demand. Gland Pharma and Hikma Pharmaceuticals provided little information about their shortages.

Hospira reported increased demand across midazolam products. One of its products is in limited supply and expected to be on back-order until later in April. Two others won't be ready for delivery until next June.

For ketamine, fentanyl, and lorazepam, increased demand has been cited by several companies, with only Hospira reporting that its products are in limited supply due to manufacturing delay.

Hospira recently stopped making etomidate for anesthesia and analgesia. Janssen Pharmaceuticals recently stopped making fentanyl transdermal patches.

The FDA released guidance to industry last week requiring notification within 5 days of interruptions or other problems with drug supply. "FDA should not first learn of a supply disruption resulting from an interruption in manufacturing from a purchaser whose order could not be filled by the manufacturer," it said.

The shortages aren't too surprising, especially around hot spots like New York City, said Michael Ganio, PharmD, senior director of pharmacy practice and quality at the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists.

"For one, some of these medications have been in short supply for a couple of years, on and off availability," he told MedPage Today. "We're concerned about all of them, because most of our inventory in the hospitals and most of the inventory in distribution centers from the wholesalers is a 'just in time' inventory. We keep typically a week, maybe 2 weeks of supply in hand."

The dropoff in elective surgery had helped conserve the medications, but ICU patients rip through much larger supplies of these drugs, he noted in an interview monitored by his organization's media relations.

Manufacturing supply problems stemming from shutdowns of Chinese producers of active ingredients due to COVID-19 have yet to ripple through the distribution channels, he noted. "It's yet to be seen just what impact that might have."

Moving supplies around the country as peaks hit various population centers can only do so much, Ganio said.

On March 24, Vizient also reported that orders for chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine rose about 70- and 20-fold, respectively, during the previous week, while fill rates dropped as low as 1.4% and 12.1%.

The District of Columbia Department of Health, for one, issued emergency orders that pharmacists can only dispense those two drugs and azithromycin for FDA-approved indications, with limited exceptions.

"Pharmacists have been managing shortages for 20 years now," Ganio noted. "We've become creative, we've been able to manage most things where frontline practitioners don't realize that there is a shortage."

"We'll figure it out," he said.

quote:

Originally posted by sdy:
adding an important input re the modeling

We are sailing in unchartered waters

And that should be noted.
Using modelling data from other countries, where the results 'may' be skewed, is problematic.

Every country has different population social engagements ...

I can't recall, but has the CDC's estimate for the 2020 flu season been raised?

2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season

Quote: Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza. These estimates are calculated based on CDC’s weekly influenza surveillance data and are preliminary.

Now the CDC has added an extra ** for the COVID-19 respiratory disease.

Now read the CDC's Limitations statement.

Quote:
Third .. are based on data from prior seasons, which may not be accurate if the seriousness of illness or patterns of care-seeking have changed.

When it comes to data analysis, garbage in, garbage out.

For Aus, the 2019 flu season (June-Sep) was somewhat exceptional. 100k hospitalized, 300k GP visits, 6k deaths, mostly aged/compromised immunity.

The stats are the known and recorded by hospitals.

Like many here, I don't believe much of the statistics being published.

Not a nay-sayer or head in the sand ... just that there are a lot of experts wanting the limelight or sensationalism.

The After Action Report and Root Cause Analysis will be interesting, one day.

Until then these numbers mean very little. May as well throw some chicken bones in a trashcan lid and attempt to cypher what they mean. I get the need to publish what they have and think they know, and of the desire to make sense and worse - predictions - based on it, but it's just a big soupy mess of numbers.

Tea Leaves.

Chicken Bones.

These Stats.

quote:

Originally posted by bigdeal:
Something yet to be fully addressed, I watched an interview with a doctor that indicated that Coronavirus antibodies (those that testing is designed to identify) may exist in the bodies of those who have recovered from the virus, but could still show up in testing results as positive.

I'm confused by this, I wonder if something got lost in translation.

As far as I have read, most (all?) COVID-19 testing being done in the US right now is based on direct detection of the virus' genetic material, and shouldn't have anything to do with antibodies.

^^The first antibody detection test for coronavirus was indeed only approved yesterday; all other tests are based on viral RNA detection. As stated, an antibody test can't really differentiate between someone who is currently infected vs. someone who is recovered but still has an antibody complement. But it is still important for researching herd immunity in populations and fine-tuning our statistics concerning this pandemic.

I absolutely agree that an antibody test can provide vital information. I'm glad they are starting to become available.

Your horoscope is more accurate than the models...

I see everyone has accepted the name covid like the Chinese propaganda wants us to do.

^^^^ Its the "WUHAN VIRUS FOEVAAAA!"