quote:

Originally posted by Fenris:

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:

quote:

Originally posted by Fenris:
Because the FDA has been so Johnny Quick approving Wuhan tests?

You mean protecting the American Public from potentially unsafe & inaccurate testing? Sure.

When I am in a dark room, I prefer to have a dim flashlight rather than none at all.

The perfect is the enemy of the good.

That analogy doesn't fit. In this case the tests that were evaluated yielded a high number of false positives, and false negatives. That means you'll be treating people that don't need treatment, and those that think they just have the flu would be infecting others. That is huge when it comes to a situation like this.

quote:

Originally posted by Fenris:
The perfect is the enemy of the good.

A test that yields unacceptably high false positives and false negatives is, arguably, worse than no test at all.

Back in my early days of software design I was tasked with taking over a project started by a software designer who'd left the company. I was having a helluva time until I realized, one day, that the code commenting he'd put in was often wildly inaccurate. When I stopped relying on what his comments claimed his code was doing, and instead figured out for myself what his code was really doing, my job became significantly easier.

As analogies go: Not a particularly good one, but a damn sight closer than the "dim flashlight" one.

quote:

Originally posted by erj_pilot:

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
^
Would Americans be willing to put up with that?

Well...that's kinda my point and you're correct. I don't think there's an American alive that would voluntarily succumb to that. AT. ALL. About the closest our government could get to that is mandating a curfew. And I'm thinking at this point, it would be VERY difficult to justify Martial Law.

There are lots of people who would do whatever they were told no matter how unlawful, stupid or marxist the directive. Tons. Some of these people are waiting in long lines right now to buy carts stuffed full of TP. Aka shitheads.

The enemy:

Indeed.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
As analogies go: Not a particularly good one, but a damn sight closer than the "dim flashlight" one.

Even relatively inaccurate tests offer statistical data that can be used to form confidence intervals for estimating case loads. Having so few tests that you can't even check for community spread means you don't even know if you have any community spread at all.

And what the hell happened to the million of tests that were supposed to be available within days?

Nope.

They still haven't produced enough tests to use any but the most restrictive criteria for deciding who gets a test.

So you like the dim flashlight analogy?

How about Sgt Schultz as an analogy for our dear bureaucratic overlords?

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
Back in my early days of software design I was tasked with taking over a project started by a software designer who'd left the company. I was having a helluva time until I realized, one day, that the code commenting he'd put in was often wildly inaccurate. When I stopped relying on what his comments claimed his code was doing, and instead figured out for myself what his code was really doing, my job became significantly easier.

Oh man, you actually paid attention to the comments. That was probably your first time dealing with someone else's code, right? There is a reason why many prefer to just scrap someone else's not quite working code and start over if they can talk the boss into it...

quote:

Originally posted by slosig:
Oh man, you actually paid attention to the comments. That was probably your first time dealing with someone else's code, right? There is a reason why many prefer to just scrap someone else's not quite working code and start over if they can talk the boss into it...

One of my first jobs was debugging spaghetti code in Algol. Everything was global variables with essentially random letters for variable names.

WHO from 14 Jan 2020




https://www.foxnews.com/world/...smission-coronavirus


The World Health Organization (WHO) is now haunted by a tweet it sent earlier this year when it cited Chinese health officials who claimed there had been no human transmissions of the novel coronavirus within the country yet.

It also relied on information from Chinese health authorities who have been accused of obscuring facts and figures during the course of the outbreak.

Wash Post from 6 Feb 2020

https://www.washingtonpost.com...zardous-your-health/

The Chinese Communist Party has once again proved that authoritarianism is dangerous — not just for human rights but also for public health.

Confronted with the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, the CCP has instinctively reverted to its familiar tool kit: It immediately staged a large-scale lockdown of people and information at the expense of the public good.

Videos shot by brave locals over the past weekend — especially by the citizen journalists Fang Bing and Chen Qiushi — are revealing. Bodies lie in the street or are being carried out of homes. A van holding eight body bags waits to transport the dead from the hospital to a crematorium. Lines of people snake through hospital wards awaiting testing and registration, each cough in the crowd eliciting an unconscious flinch. Dozens of others sit in a waiting room, hooked up to IV bags dangling incongruously from the ceiling like jellyfish floating in an aquarium.

We hear the sobs of people standing over dying parents and loved ones lying lifeless on gurneys. People lean against the walls or lie in hallways, the dead lying on stretchers beside them covered with flowered comforters brought from home. Health-care workers all wear full hazmat suits, while regular people move in and out of hospitals protected only by paper face masks, all hiding behind a muffled anonymity. An eerie silence pervades, as though speech itself will spread the disease further.

You don’t have to look far to find the signs of a typically authoritarian response to the crisis. CCP officials weld doors shut to prevent those who have fallen ill from leaving their homes. Hospitals and clinics turn people away because they can’t pay (despite official promises of free care), returning home to attend to themselves and their families or to succumb to the illness alone. And without approved diagnoses, these deaths will not be counted in official CCP statistics about the new disease.

A virtual state of emergency holds across the country. Security forces have blocked village entryways. Guards stationed at checkpoints verify the health status of residents before they’re allowed to enter. Often, residents themselves are not permitted to leave the area; even the most remote places are not exempt. How people can survive is anyone’s guess.

Medical supplies, including protective clothing and masks, are in short supply. Reports describe how donations to the Red Cross in Wuhan were not distributed, while officials funneled off what they chose for their own benefit. The lockdown is ratcheting up the price for goods. A pack of 10 face masks, for instance, typically sells for around 3.7 yuan (about 50 cents). Now, a single mask costs 30 yuan (more than $4). In the southern city of Guangzhou, masks are only available by lottery.

The CCP has made a huge fuss over its construction in 10 days of a new hospital aimed at combating the virus (promising 1,000 new beds after well over 20,000 people have been reported infected). Yet the building has been described by some as resembling a prison, with slits in the doors, locks only on the outside and bars on the windows. This sort of project is typical of the regime, which desperately needs to show that it can act in response to a fast-moving and invisible threat. The government is already bringing foreign journalists to the hospital to show it off. Locals see it simply as a new facility for current patients already lucky enough to have a spot in a hospital.

For the 70-plus years of its power, the CCP has perfected the art of grand sweeping gestures aimed at demonstrating both its control of the population and a superficial sense of solidarity. In some ways, therefore, the party’s handling of the Wuhan virus exemplifies its tendency to produce huge, self-aggrandizing projects that have little positive impact on the ground. Barricading Wuhan after 5 million residents have already left and building hospitals in record time, while sending people home for lack of funds, fit this pattern all too well.

quote:

Originally posted by sdy:
WHO from 14 Jan 2020




https://www.foxnews.com/world/...smission-coronavirus


The World Health Organization (WHO) is now haunted by a tweet it sent earlier this year when it cited Chinese health officials who claimed there had been no human transmissions of the novel coronavirus within the country yet.

It also relied on information from Chinese health authorities who have been accused of obscuring facts and figures during the course of the outbreak.

The WHO was co-founded by China and a substantial amount of its budget relies on their continued financial support. Not surprisingly, that organization is biased when it comes to reporting facts on what happens or who is responsible in Chicom.

quote:

Originally posted by Fenris:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
As analogies go: Not a particularly good one, but a damn sight closer than the "dim flashlight" one.

Even relatively inaccurate tests offer statistical data that can be used to form confidence intervals for estimating case loads. Having so few tests that you can't even check for community spread means you don't even know if you have any community spread at all.

The numbers you’re dealing with are people. Do you want to tell someone they need open heart surgery or have cancer when they don’t? How about if they do, then pass away b/c they didn’t receive treatment? Do you think an individual patient gives a rat’s ass about collecting potentially flawed population data?

How about the next time you go into a doctors office for a real medical issue, you tell the doc they should roll a die and if it comes up 1 or a 6 (without you seeing the outcome) they should lie to you. After all, you’re just another statistic. Is that how you want to be treated?

BDxCTATx/O

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:

quote:

Originally posted by Fenris:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
As analogies go: Not a particularly good one, but a damn sight closer than the "dim flashlight" one.

Even relatively inaccurate tests offer statistical data that can be used to form confidence intervals for estimating case loads. Having so few tests that you can't even check for community spread means you don't even know if you have any community spread at all.

The numbers you’re dealing with are people. Do you want to tell someone they need open heart surgery or have cancer when they don’t? How about if they do, then pass away b/c they didn’t receive treatment? Do you think an individual patient gives a rat’s ass about collecting potentially flawed population data?

How about the next time you go into a doctors office for a real medical issue, you tell the doc they should roll a die and if it comes up 1 or a 6 (without you seeing the outcome) they should lie to you. After all, you’re just another statistic. Is that how you want to be treated?

BDxCTATx/O

Stated another way, 'Garbage In Garbage Out'!

Chris17404...
The President yesterday invoked the Defense Production Act. Like many reports of the type you referenced, different sections of it were drafted over some course of time. Very doubtful that waves of the outbreak will occur; such would be the case with influenza. The main reason is Coronaviruses don’t have high mutation rates. Further, we have real world evidence that the outbreak is slowing in some countries. The report will also be significantly off-base if there is a way of mitigating symptoms or a vaccine is developed in the near future. In the last few days for instance, there appears to be some positive developments on that front (we’ll get more specifics at 11 am EST today from the WH).

In other words, don’t believe every summary report you read without applying some critical thinking and I’m willing to bet the WH clarifies such if reporters ask about it.

https://www.breitbart.com/poli...-coronavirus-crisis/

The State Department is suspending refugee resettlement, at least temporarily, to the United States amid the coronavirus crisis.

On Tuesday, the United Nations’ Refugee Agency — which helps facilitate which refugees are admitted to the U.S. annually — announced that they would be suspending their end of refugee resettlement.

In a statement to Breitbart News, a State Department spokesperson said that a pause on refugee resettlement to the U.S. would take effect from March 19 through at least April 6

The announcement comes as the State Department continued resettling nearly 2,500 refugees to all but seven states in the country between February 1 and March 15 — even while the nation’s leading medical experts said migration and travel from abroad were aiding in spreading the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S.

The supermarkets are a little better here today, it seems.
Still not fully stocked and light on meat, but better, I think.

The population of Wuhan is large

Estimates vary on the exact size of the population, with local government officials putting the figure at 11 million, though UN data from 2018 says 8.9 million people live in the central Chinese city.

Wuhan international airport handled 20 million passengers in 2016, and offers direct flights to London, Paris, Dubai, and other cities around the world.

The city is built along the Yangtze river and, according to its website, it is a "foundation of in both hi-tech manufacturing and traditional manufacturing".

It has a series of industrial zones, 52 "institutions of higher learning", and claims more than 700,000 students - including, reportedly, the largest number of undergraduates in the country.

Some 230 of the world's 500 biggest companies (as measured by the Fortune Global list) have invested there.

Wuhan's status as one of the biggest - and most connected - places in the world means international cases will almost certainly continue to emerge.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51202254

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

right now 55% of the confirmed U.S. cases are in the states of New York, California, and Washington

New York is the hardest hit w 3083 confirmed cases (33% of U.S. total)

The movie theater industry, hit hard by the panic, is asking for a stimulus from the federal govt.

https://www.breitbart.com/ente...-due-to-coronavirus/

quote:

Originally posted by sdy:
Wuhan's status as one of the biggest - and most connected - places in the world means international cases will almost certainly continue to emerge.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51202254

That article is dated January 23rd... 2 months is an eternity in the timeline of a virulent epidemic.

Wuhan's status is immaterial at this point. It is no longer the source of our infections.

At this stage of the epidemic, people aren't being infected due to contact with China, or contact with a person who was in China. The virus is now in our communities, and the people in our communities who are catching it and transmitting it further have no direct or close indirect ties to China.

Wuhan is basically irrelevant to our situation, except as an example from which we can learn what to do and what not to do during the early stages of an outbreak, and a source of medical data.