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When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2) Login/Join 
Semper Fi - 1775
Picture of Ronin1069
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Can anyone please link me to a few quality articles about what China knew before all this broke here?

I’m not finding much of “quality” online.


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Posts: 12456 | Location: Belly of the Beast | Registered: January 02, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of PowerSurge
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quote:
Originally posted by maladat:
quote:
Originally posted by PowerSurge:
quote:
Originally posted by reloader-1:
Why is it ridiculousness? Is it really that incredible that this is a situation that requires such measures to avoid a scenario with severe loss of life?

My company is based in northern Italy, the stories I’ve been shared are sobering. That region is basically Germany/Switzerland south, in terms of efficiency and productivity, and they are at the breaking point (or beyond).

We don’t want to go there.


What makes you think there would be a “severe loss of life here”? China has even seen their cases level off.


Did they get there by going on with business as usual, or did they put every remotely affected area in the country in lockdown?


Neither of us can say for certain why if we’re being honest.


———————————————
The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God. Psalm 14:1
 
Posts: 4067 | Location: Northeast Georgia | Registered: November 18, 2017Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Ammoholic
Picture of Skins2881
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quote:
Originally posted by sigfreund:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc H.:
And that one probably originated in China as well.


Interesting; I have never run across that idea in all the reading I’ve done on the subject. Any views on how it spread to the US? I don’t recall that there was much Chinese immigration at that time.

Added: Just researched the Chinese Labor Corps that consisted of many Chinese in Europe during the war: American soldiers got infected there then returned to the US, but it was already spreading by that time—? The thing that doesn’t seem to fit that theory was that disease’s short incubation period (as I recall).


Here you go.

https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/



Jesse

Sic Semper Tyrannis
 
Posts: 21357 | Location: Loudoun County, Virginia | Registered: December 27, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Now in Florida
Picture of ChicagoSigMan
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by TAllen01:
quote:
Originally posted by 1KPerDay:
FYI from my brother the ER doc if interested:


Hey guys, I have been meaning to send a text out to you especially after the meeting I had this morning with the other doctors at my hospital (by phone). It was all about the coronavirus. Initially I think we all felt this was just a dumb virus and there was a lot of social over reactions, however we are seeing two things happening, number one this is more deadly and more contagious than influenza by a long shot, And hospitals are already being overwhelmed. People are getting very sick, and especially the elderly, by which I mean anyone older than 65.
All of the data shows that by decreasing the rate of spread we will prevent the high spike in transmission which will help hospitals not be overwhelmed. Which helps people not die.

New data shows about 25% of infected patients don’t have symptoms, but they are highly infectious. Especially in the first week of infection.

We are also now realizing that there are likely thousands of true positive cases that aren’t reported, and I think we will all have friends or family that end up being infected by this virus.

My guidance Would be to not have any get togethers. I think we need to understand how serious this really is.

Happy to discuss this further and answer any questions. It is a daily change of information, the situation is very fluid.


More medical experts weighing in with their assessments and recommendations. We should listen.

Sadly, I fear it will not change one person's mind. This will always be seen as "less deadly" than the flu, and we are way overreacting, despite what all the medical experts are saying.


No disrespect to the poster's brother....but mortality can't be determined at this point. We won't know the true mortality until this is all over. As it is, the mortality rate - other than in Italy perhaps - is falling every day. The fact that 25% of infected people (I've seen estimates as high as 86%) don't show symptoms suggests that mortality is much lower than we see based on confirmed cases. It seems likely that the true mortality rate will end up being around .8-.9% on the high end. Definitely higher than the flu (.1%), but not panic inducing.


The big question is whether the remedy (total shutdown of the country and the trillions of dollars of economic damage involved with that) is justified by whast we are seeing. So far I am not convinced. It seems like, instead of telling everyone to stay home and shuttering restaurants and stores, we could have started by telling anyone over 70 to self-quarantine. It would have been a lot less disruptive and probably would have prevented 95% of the deaths (which still number barely more than a hundred).

Change my mind.
 
Posts: 6084 | Location: FL | Registered: March 09, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Fourth line skater
Picture of goose5
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https://wattsupwiththat.com/20...-anti-malarial-drug/

I found this interesting. How this works I have no idea since malaria is a parasitic infection.


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Posts: 7673 | Location: Pueblo, CO | Registered: July 03, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Funny Man
Picture of TXJIM
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by PowerSurge:
quote:
Originally posted by maladat:
quote:
Originally posted by PowerSurge:
quote:
Originally posted by reloader-1:
Why is it ridiculousness? Is it really that incredible that this is a situation that requires such measures to avoid a scenario with severe loss of life?

My company is based in northern Italy, the stories I’ve been shared are sobering. That region is basically Germany/Switzerland south, in terms of efficiency and productivity, and they are at the breaking point (or beyond).

We don’t want to go there.


What makes you think there would be a “severe loss of life here”? China has even seen their cases level off.


Did they get there by going on with business as usual, or did they put every remotely affected area in the country in lockdown?


Neither of us can say for certain why if we’re being honest.


So true, no real way to know if a full and total quarantine would have been better at stopping a highly contagious disease than everyone loading up with fireworks and meeting up for Chinese New Year. If we are being honest, of course Roll Eyes


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Posts: 7093 | Location: Austin, TX | Registered: June 29, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Fortified with Sleestak
Picture of thunderson
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We won't know actual mortality rate until it's over, and I don't thing that is primary on the mind of caregivers. The fact is when they go on about the amount of critical care beds and equipment available folks have to remember regular seasonal flu has killed 22,000 so far this year and there have been over 370,000 hospitalizations. Now, add covid-19 to this and go ahead and pile on top just the average day to day heart attacks, car accidents, stroke, etc.

It really isn't hard to understand that getting on top of this as much as we can is in our best interest. Bed space is finite. Right now the death rate for covid-19 is falling in the US. Of course the fact that New York alone almost doubled it's number of cases in the last 24hours really brings that number down a bit at least in the short term.



I have the heart of a lion.......and a lifetime ban from the Toronto Zoo.- Unknown
 
Posts: 5371 | Location: Shenandoah Valley, VA | Registered: November 05, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
safe & sound
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Our little school district just became the first in the State of Missouri to cancel the rest of the school year in its entirety.


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Posts: 15964 | Location: St. Charles, MO, USA | Registered: September 22, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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This is interesting if true:

"Rome, 13 Mar 19:12 - (Agenzia Nova)- There could be only two people who died from coronavirus in Italy, who had no other pathologies. This is what emerges from the medical records examined so far by the Higher Institute of Health, according to what was reported by the President of the Institute, Silvio Brusaferro, during the press conference held today at the Civil Protection in Rome. "Positive deceased patients have an average of over 80 years - 80.3 to be exact - and are essentially predominantly male," said Brusaferro. "Women are 25.8 percent. The average age of the deceased is significantly higher than the other positive ones. The age groups over 70, with a peak between 80 and 89 years. The majority of these people are carriers of chronic diseases."

Italian Deaths


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Posts: 675 | Location: Virginia | Registered: July 13, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lost
Picture of kkina
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quote:
Originally posted by goose5:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/20...-anti-malarial-drug/

I found this interesting. How this works I have no idea since malaria is a parasitic infection.

Someone actually asked about chloroquine during the Trump team's press conference today. I don't remember what the response was.



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Posts: 17259 | Location: SF Bay Area | Registered: December 11, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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^^^ Go back to page 165. I suspect tomorrow’s press conference will be covering this topic as a therapeutic recourse is typically easier to accomplish than a vaccine given a number of factors... and may provide some scientific cover to get past the political nature of things.
 
Posts: 3402 | Location: Mid-Atlantic | Registered: December 27, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Freethinker
Picture of sigfreund
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quote:
Originally posted by Skins2881:
Here you go.

https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/


Thanks. I was familiar with most of that, but not the suspected Chinese connection unless I never focused on it. I imagine that many authors look to spice up their narratives, but 20 to 40 million dead is at the low end of the estimates I’ve see. At some point, though, differences in figures like that become meaningless.

And thanks for your comments, Doc H. The one thing I’ll say about this pandemic is that regardless of what we may think is reasonable or unreasonable about the responses it’s led to, it’s not something people today are unlikely to forget in the future. I’ve heard it said countless times that the next big killer isn’t a matter of if, but when, and perhaps this experience will help ensure that the next really dangerous disease won’t kill as many as it would otherwise (hopefully I won’t be around to see for myself). Some friends and I met for a “last supper” recently and we noted that the shortages were not something we in Colorado were accustomed to. We don’t have hurricanes here and although a blizzard might disrupt supply chains, at worst it’s no more than a few days.




6.4/93.6

“ Enlightenment is man’s emergence from his self-imposed nonage. Nonage is the inability to use one’s own understanding without another’s guidance. This nonage is self-imposed if its cause lies not in lack of understanding but in indecision and lack of courage to use one’s own mind without another’s guidance.”
— Immanuel Kant
 
Posts: 48012 | Location: 10,150 Feet Above Sea Level in Colorado | Registered: April 04, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Something wild
is loose
Picture of Doc H.
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by kkina:
quote:
Originally posted by goose5:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/20...-anti-malarial-drug/

I found this interesting. How this works I have no idea since malaria is a parasitic infection.

Someone actually asked about chloroquine during the Trump team's press conference today. I don't remember what the response was.


As mentioned quite a few pages back, chloroquine is one of the drugs used in the initial and ongoing trial studies here. It's cheap (about $5 a dose worldwide - with ramp up probably much cheaper), it's - (somewhat) effective - and that depends on several things, not least of which is disease staging, and it's available. It's also not without a long list of side effects, most of which are manageable and minor, but some serious. It's (probably) more effective with other drugs, but it is very promising. We will likely see an announcement early tomorrow on prying the FDA loose from restrictions on its use, and see an effective regimen of therapy proposed, along with possibly some news on vaccine progress.



"And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day"
 
Posts: 2746 | Location: The Shire | Registered: October 22, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
10mm is The
Boom of Doom
Picture of Fenris
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Doc H.:
We will likely see an announcement early tomorrow on prying the FDA loose from restrictions on its use, and see an effective regimen of therapy proposed, along with possibly some news on vaccine progress.

Because the FDA has been so Johnny Quick approving Wuhan tests?




God Bless and Protect the Once and Future President, Donald John Trump.
 
Posts: 17617 | Location: Northern Virginia | Registered: November 08, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lost
Picture of kkina
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quote:
Originally posted by Doc H.:
As mentioned quite a few pages back, chloroquine is one of the drugs used in the initial and ongoing trial studies. It's cheap (about $5 a dose worldwide - with ramp up probably much cheaper), it's - (somewhat) effective - and that depends on several things, not least of which is disease staging, and it's available. It's also not without a long list of side effects, most of which are manageable and minor, but some serious. It's (probably) more effective with other drugs, but it is very promising. We will likely see an announcement early tomorrow on prying the FDA loose from restrictions on its use, and see an effective regimen of therapy proposed, along with possibly some news on vaccine progress.

Did you happen to catch how Mr. Trump responded to the question this morning?



ACCU-STRUT FOR MINI-14
"Pen & Sword as one."
 
Posts: 17259 | Location: SF Bay Area | Registered: December 11, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Sanofi Pasteur is the largest producer of chloroquine and scaling up manufacturing is far easier than other drugs currently in clinical trials, costing around 5-cents a dose wholesale (not $5). The composition is off-patent so Big Pharma can bring its considerable manufacturing to bear, such as Pfizer which ticked upward today BTW in the market. Even if it wasn’t that obstacle could be ignored but it does create less of a headache.
Like Doc H indicated there are potential side effects, the most worrisome of which is overdosing but with the right traceability, packaging and delivery method that should be mitigated.
 
Posts: 3402 | Location: Mid-Atlantic | Registered: December 27, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
An investment in knowledge
pays the best interest
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Fenris:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc H.:
We will likely see an announcement early tomorrow on prying the FDA loose from restrictions on its use, and see an effective regimen of therapy proposed, along with possibly some news on vaccine progress.

Because the FDA has been so Johnny Quick approving Wuhan tests?

You mean protecting the American Public from potentially unsafe & inaccurate testing? Sure.
 
Posts: 3402 | Location: Mid-Atlantic | Registered: December 27, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Something wild
is loose
Picture of Doc H.
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by kkina:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc H.:
As mentioned quite a few pages back, chloroquine is one of the drugs used in the initial and ongoing trial studies. It's cheap (about $5 a dose worldwide - with ramp up probably much cheaper), it's - (somewhat) effective - and that depends on several things, not least of which is disease staging, and it's available. It's also not without a long list of side effects, most of which are manageable and minor, but some serious. It's (probably) more effective with other drugs, but it is very promising. We will likely see an announcement early tomorrow on prying the FDA loose from restrictions on its use, and see an effective regimen of therapy proposed, along with possibly some news on vaccine progress.

Did you happen to catch how Mr. Trump responded to the question this morning?


Did not see his response, but I imagine it was something on the order of "News tomorrow."



"And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day"
 
Posts: 2746 | Location: The Shire | Registered: October 22, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of cparktd
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Add thermometers to the things you can't find. My daughter needed one today as she is sick and found none to be bought anywhere.



Collecting dust.
 
Posts: 4226 | Location: Middle Tennessee | Registered: February 07, 2013Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Something wild
is loose
Picture of Doc H.
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Dakor:
Sanofi Pasteur is the largest producer of chloroquine and scaling up manufacturing is far easier than other drugs currently in clinical trials, costing around 5-cents a dose wholesale (not $5). The composition is off-patent so Big Pharma can bring its considerable manufacturing to bear, suc as Pfizer which ticked upward today BTW in the market.
Like Doc H indicated there are potential side effects, the most worrisome of which is overdosing but with the right traceability, packaging and delivery method that should be mitigated.

Smile
My bad - .05 worldwide, $5 in the US. We'll get the international discount I'm sure...



"And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day"
 
Posts: 2746 | Location: The Shire | Registered: October 22, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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