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When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2) Login/Join 
Something wild
is loose
Picture of Doc H.
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Sig2340:
I read that COVID-19 virus has jumped the blood-brain barrier and been found in the CSF of deceased patients in both China and Japan. China claims to have successfully treated at least one patient in Wuhan who had meningitis in addition to COVID-19.

To our medical professionals:

1. Have you heard this too?
2. Am I correct that this unexpected event is a big deal?


A recent finding from a hospital in Beijing. It's not actually an unexpected event: both SARS and MERS - related coronaviruses - have been found in CSF, and viral encephalitis is a known complication of a viral infection (most common, so far, in the US is caused by herpes simplex, and actually affects about one patient in a quarter of a million). Susceptible patients fall into the same groups at risk for severe infections in the first place - immunocompromised, comorbidities, et al. Most patients fully recover, and many have mild symptoms, but it is a big deal for individual patients, because neurological symptoms are often misdiagnosed or undiagnosed, and without reasonably quick intervention you could be in serious trouble. Another data point that healthcare providers should be aware of when dealing with early diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19, that frankly is missed sometimes with influenza (and measles, and shingles).



"And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day"
 
Posts: 2746 | Location: The Shire | Registered: October 22, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
SIGforum's Berlin
Correspondent
Picture of BansheeOne
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I suggest that South Korea is still offering the best look at the true effects of COVID-19. They have tested 140,000 people and established 7,755 cases. The growth of case numbers has been leveling off over the last days - it was 7,382 on Monday and 7,513 on Tuesday - so they seem to be getting a handle on the spread. At the same time the CFR is increasing slightly, now just below 0.8 percent; but that's to be expected as death runs its course among existing cases while fewer new ones emerge. We may shortly see a somewhat hard total fatality rate in a population that didn't allow its healthcare system to be overwhelmed by an uncontrolled spike of cases like it initially seems to have happened in China, and now in Italy.
 
Posts: 2465 | Location: Berlin, Germany | Registered: April 12, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Get my pies
outta the oven!

Picture of PASig
posted Hide Post
How is it that South Korea has been able to test so many people and the USA has not? Were we caught flat footed with these test kits? They've tested tens of thousands of people now and we have only done like 1,000?

I saw a graph that showed a shockingly low number of COVID-19 test kits available in the US right now compared to other countries. What the hell happened?

One thing that has not been discussed much about Italy which MAY explain their death rates is that their population is very old overall and I suspect it's a lot of senior people not making it.


 
Posts: 35154 | Location: Pennsylvania | Registered: November 12, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of maladat
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Doc H.:
A recent finding from a hospital in Beijing. It's not actually an unexpected event: both SARS and MERS - related coronaviruses - have been found in CSF, and viral encephalitis is a known complication of a viral infection (most common, so far, in the US is caused by herpes simplex, and actually affects about one patient in a quarter of a million). Susceptible patients fall into the same groups at risk for severe infections in the first place - immunocompromised, comorbidities, et al. Most patients fully recover, and many have mild symptoms, but it is a big deal for individual patients, because neurological symptoms are often misdiagnosed or undiagnosed, and without reasonably quick intervention you could be in serious trouble.


I don't know anything about other viral encephalitises, which I think are what you are talking about in terms of severity.

Howevee, HSV encephalitis (which I don't think you were talking about when discussing severity) is horrific. Without treatment it has about a 90% mortality rate. With treatment, the mortality rate is something like 1 in 3 or 1 in 4, and the majority of survivors have permanent neurological damage.

The reason HSV encephalitis is so bad isn't so much just that there's a virus in the brain as that it essentially causes a bunch of fever blisters in the brain.

I know someone who got HSV encephalitis a couple of years ago. She went from fine to sick to in a coma in a neuro ICU in about three days. She was in the neuro ICU for about a month. She has been extremely fortunate and has almost fully recovered, but will have to take seizure medication for the rest of her life.

I'm not suggesting coronavirus encephalitis would be anything like that, coronavirus is totally different from HSV. I just didn't want people to get the wrong idea that HSV encephalitis isn't a seriously horrible disease.
 
Posts: 6320 | Location: CA | Registered: January 24, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Nosce te ipsum
Picture of Woodman
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Lie-Nielsen just cancelled their (free) country-wide tool workshops for the next three months. Protect thy employees, and make money later.

Mom is in rehab from a hip replacement plus infection from the first failed operation. Today rehab just informed all visitors will be locked out until further notice. Dad wants one of us in there nearly 24/7, and I understand why, but if it was my facility, I'd have locked it down some time ago.

Handshakes were non-existent as I visit a destination music shop after a 6 month absence. But yes, they would love to sell me a $4k-$7k mandolin ...
 
Posts: 8759 | Registered: March 24, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
10mm is The
Boom of Doom
Picture of Fenris
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by BansheeOne:
We may shortly see a somewhat hard total fatality rate in a population that didn't allow its healthcare system to be overwhelmed by an uncontrolled spike of cases like it initially seems to have happened in China, and now in Italy.

Also, unlike the fucktards at CDC, they didn't screw the pooch with faulty test kits.




God Bless and Protect the Once and Future President, Donald John Trump.
 
Posts: 17610 | Location: Northern Virginia | Registered: November 08, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Not all who wander
are lost.
Picture of JohnV
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by PASig:
How is it that South Korea has been able to test so many people and the USA has not? Were we caught flat footed with these test kits? They've tested tens of thousands of people now and we have only done like 1,000?

I saw a graph that showed a shockingly low number of COVID-19 test kits available in the US right now compared to other countries. What the hell happened?


I heard the WHO either sent test kits to the CDC or told the CDC exactly how to make them and the CDC thought they could do one better by making their own kits that would also test for 3 or 4 other viruses instead of just a test for the Corona. When the tests came out they were 30% ineffective and they had to scrap all of them and start over.





Posted from my iPhone.
 
Posts: 4327 | Location: Tennessee | Registered: February 22, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
SIGforum's Berlin
Correspondent
Picture of BansheeOne
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by PASig:
How is it that South Korea has been able to test so many people and the USA has not? Were we caught flat footed with these test kits? They've tested tens of thousands of people now and we have only done like 1,000?

I saw a graph that showed a shockingly low number of COVID-19 test kits available in the US right now compared to other countries. What the hell happened?

One thing that has not been discussed much about Italy which MAY explain their death rates is that their population is very old overall and I suspect it's a lot of senior people not making it.


See this article I posted earlier. Additionally, the US seems to have had an initial problem with faulty test kits.

quote:
Why South Korea may have more coronavirus cases than the US

South Korea had tested 66,652 people as of Thursday afternoon.

By Joohee Cho

27 February 2020, 11:09

SEOUL, South Korea -- Global health experts say the speed and scope of South Korea’s novel coronavirus diagnostic capability exhibit impressive and significant lab capabilities that no other countries, including the U.S., can match at the moment.

South Korea had tested a total of 66,652 people for the COVID-19 coronavirus virus as of 4 p.m. local time Thursday, whereas Japan had reported administering roughly 1,890 tests and the U.S. only 445. The huge discrepancy compared to other countries reflects how quickly South Korea’s numbers have been rising, experts say.

The total number of confirmed cases so far in South Korea is 1,766, up 505 from the day before. Of the 66,00 people who have been tested, more than 25,000 are still awaiting lab results.

More than 10,000 people a day are being tested around the clock, propelled by a sense of concern that the virus may spread outside of Daegu area, where around 80 percent of all confirmed cases have been found.

"This week is crucial for us in determining whether we have successfully dealt with COVID-19," South Korea Prime Minister Chung Sye-Kyun said.

The tests are being run at 79 designated health centers, in addition to authorized private hospitals and public health labs across the country.

"We have quickly selected these institutions after training and evaluation programs held on Feb. 7 and 20," official Park Hyun Kyu at Korea's Center for Disease Control told ABC News. "They do preliminary screening, then send all positively sampled results to us for final diagnosis."

Dr. Todd Ellerin, Director of Infectious Disease at South Shore Health in Massachusetts, says the massive number of tests is impressive.

[...]

A big reason for South Korea's success is how quickly they were able to get test kits ready, Ellerin said.

"One thing China did was that [after] the first case came in November, activity began in late December and by January 10th China shared the sequence with the public and they already had test kits on that day."

Officials say the rapid implementation was possible because the South Korean government was able to shorten the process for the newly developed test kits to be approved by its version of the Food and Drug Administration.

"It would normally take about a year to get a test kit approved, but FDA gave out emergency approval to acceptable applicants on a temporary basis," Park told ABC News.

For the testing itself, medical institutions, spread out across local communities, follow detailed instructions provided by the central health authorities and screen applicants with suspicious respiratory symptoms. The meticulous process takes from half an hour to an hour per person.

"It just takes a lot of time because the tester has to change suits to a new one every time," said Park.

"All medical teams dispose of their quarantine suits and inspection tools by using it just once, and new medical tools are used for each patient, every time," an official with Samsung Medical Center, one of the largest testing centers in Seoul, told ABC News.

As number of tests continues to stack up, several locations have set up "drive-thru" centers that could minimize contact between the potential patient and medical staff. This new idea shortens time spent on testing to just 10 minutes per person since the medics do not have to change quarantine suits for every patient.

Applicants must drive to the site in their privately owned vehicles wearing masks. Tests are conducted at a makeshift tent outside of buildings to prevent spreading indoors.

[...]


https://abcnews.go.com/Interna...le/story?id=69226222
 
Posts: 2465 | Location: Berlin, Germany | Registered: April 12, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Oh stewardess,
I speak jive.
Picture of 46and2
posted Hide Post
Who here (Sigforum, participating in this conversation) is an M.D., or related PhD working in the field, or some other related professional with direct knowledge based on hard science or first-hand experience?

No judgements, I've just forgotten who is/was a physician and it's hard to tell sometimes whats what and who's saying what, and which ones are based on expertise, versus adept-Googling, WAGs, or whatever...

I know we have Jones and Rhino and Para keeping it real, funny, and hysteria free.

But who all is dropping the science here, versus yahoos like me just reading shit?

Doc H, I've forgotten what sort of doctor you are.
 
Posts: 25613 | Registered: March 12, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Step by step walk the thousand mile road
Picture of Sig2340
posted Hide Post
It is official: WHO declares coronavirus global 'pandemic'

When uncertain
and when in doubt
Run in circles,
Scream and shout

We didn't panic over the economic crisis in 2007.
We didn't panic when Obama was elected.
We didn't panic over da'bola.
We didn't even panic when it looked like Hillary Clinton might be elected POTUS.

Let us not make this a panicdemic pandemic.





Nice is overrated

"It's every freedom-loving individual's duty to lie to the government."
Airsoftguy, June 29, 2018
 
Posts: 32370 | Location: Loudoun County, Virginia | Registered: May 17, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
thin skin can't win
Picture of Georgeair
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by PASig:
How is it that South Korea has been able to test so many people and the USA has not? Were we caught flat footed with these test kits? They've tested tens of thousands of people now and we have only done like 1,000?


From reading the past couple weeks apparently the CDC and other major countries develop and manufacture their own test kits after the virus is profiled/detailed. That allows them to have some specific control over the testing as well as disperse the manufacturing.

IOW, they aren't available on eBay or Amazon.

With it being some time before the specifics of the virus were identified and then the lead time to develop accurate testing, followed then by more time to get manufacturing ramped up, I don't believe we're really "behind" so much as it's just a process that takes more than a week and would be impossible to have "stocked up on" in advance or at first outbreaks.



You only have integrity once. - imprezaguy02

 
Posts: 12888 | Location: Madison, MS | Registered: December 10, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Mired in the
Fog of Lucidity
posted Hide Post
BREAKING: NCAA Basketball Tournaments to be played without fans in attendance



https://spartanswire.usatoday....-fans-in-attendance/
 
Posts: 4850 | Registered: February 10, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Exceptional Circumstances
Picture of dave7378
posted Hide Post
My daughter just informed me that her school, Boston College, just emailed her that they are being shut down for the remainder of the semester and that they have to be out of the dorms by Sunday. All classes and tests will be taught online.

Wonder if I will get some money back? Won't hold my breath. Although, holding my breath may keep me from getting infected Roll Eyes


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
 
Posts: 5957 | Location: Hampton Bays, NY | Registered: October 14, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Void Where Prohibited
Picture of WaterburyBob
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And CT today cancelled all High School tournament games.

A good number of colleges here are sending students home and are moving to online learning.



"If Gun Control worked, Chicago would look like Mayberry, not Thunderdome" - Cam Edwards
 
Posts: 16723 | Location: Under the Boot of Tyranny in Connectistan | Registered: February 02, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
thin skin can't win
Picture of Georgeair
posted Hide Post
SEC:
quote:
We are evaluating plans for the remainder of the tournament. More to come.


Bet each major conference follows suit into crazy land.



You only have integrity once. - imprezaguy02

 
Posts: 12888 | Location: Madison, MS | Registered: December 10, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Something wild
is loose
Picture of Doc H.
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by maladat:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc H.:
A recent finding from a hospital in Beijing. It's not actually an unexpected event: both SARS and MERS - related coronaviruses - have been found in CSF, and viral encephalitis is a known complication of a viral infection (most common, so far, in the US is caused by herpes simplex, and actually affects about one patient in a quarter of a million). Susceptible patients fall into the same groups at risk for severe infections in the first place - immunocompromised, comorbidities, et al. Most patients fully recover, and many have mild symptoms, but it is a big deal for individual patients, because neurological symptoms are often misdiagnosed or undiagnosed, and without reasonably quick intervention you could be in serious trouble.


I don't know anything about other viral encephalitises, which I think are what you are talking about in terms of severity.

Howevee, HSV encephalitis (which I don't think you were talking about when discussing severity) is horrific. Without treatment it has about a 90% mortality rate. With treatment, the mortality rate is something like 1 in 3 or 1 in 4, and the majority of survivors have permanent neurological damage.

The reason HSV encephalitis is so bad isn't so much just that there's a virus in the brain as that it essentially causes a bunch of fever blisters in the brain.

I know someone who got HSV encephalitis a couple of years ago. She went from fine to sick to in a coma in a neuro ICU in about three days. She was in the neuro ICU for about a month. She has been extremely fortunate and has almost fully recovered, but will have to take seizure medication for the rest of her life.

I'm not suggesting coronavirus encephalitis would be anything like that, coronavirus is totally different from HSV. I just didn't want people to get the wrong idea that HSV encephalitis isn't a seriously horrible disease.


That's correct, and I didn't mean to minimize encephalitis or meningitis as a serious medical condition. HSE actually has a higher than 70% mortality rate untreated. It's probably the most common encephalopathy because symptoms are early and severe - hence recognized. Just wanted to emphasize that the "news" of a viral infection in the brain is not an unexpected complication from any viral infection, including COVID-19, and a diagnosis is not - generally - a death sentence IF recognized and treated early (acyclovir is particularly effective against HSE). Many patients recover from other viral infections of the brain very well without deficit. It's important for providers to recognize that COVID-19 is no different than its counterparts when testing though, and to look for neurological symptoms as well as pulmonary in arresting a more serious course.



"And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day"
 
Posts: 2746 | Location: The Shire | Registered: October 22, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
quote:
Wonder if I will get some money back?

^^^^^^^
No. Universities will find a way to keep the funds as it is already figured into their operating budget. There will be quite a few costs in closing down the dormitories, continuing to pay essential support personnel.
 
Posts: 17701 | Location: Stuck at home | Registered: January 02, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
It's not you,
it's me.
Picture of RAMIUS
posted Hide Post
My company, one of the world’s largest medical distributors in the world, just banned all face to face meetings. If you can work at home, you stay home.

I’m a medical rep who’s job entails spending my days in hospitals. And now I’m no longer able to go to hospitals. Better work on my phone game!
 
Posts: 7016 | Location: Right outside Philly | Registered: September 08, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of PowerSurge
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I’m literally at a loss for words. I guess this panic is great if you’re a hermit. Your lifestyle is now normalized.


———————————————
The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God. Psalm 14:1
 
Posts: 4049 | Location: Northeast Georgia | Registered: November 18, 2017Reply With QuoteReport This Post
goodheart
Picture of sjtill
posted Hide Post
To respond to 46 and 2:

I am a cardiologist, so also trained in internal medicine. I also have training in epidemiology and biostatistics but do not consider myself an expert in either field.


_________________________
“Remember, remember the fifth of November!"
 
Posts: 18622 | Location: One hop from Paradise | Registered: July 27, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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