quote:

Originally posted by Krazeehorse:
I got to wondering if the powers that be have established the criteria for continuing or rolling back all the restrictions (at least here in Ohio). School is out for at least three weeks. So how do you decide then whether to go back? When can restaurants re-open? How many cases or deaths will determine whether they open or stay closed? What if the numbers are getting worse nation wide but not in Ohio? And if they have these measures determined do you think they will be made public?

I am sure they have not. This is one of those things you have to play by ear, because there is no game plan for something that is unprecedented. Yes, our high schools are closed for only three weeks, but as I am sure you saw, many colleges just said, screw it, you're not coming back this semester.

I am sure they will be announced when they happen. DeWine is very smartly deferring to medical experts (Dr. Acton in this case), and I bet it will take a serious flattening of the curve of new infections to let them even consider opening things again.

For fuck sake! What are there, less than 1700 confirmed cases throughout the whole damned country and we are going to destroy 100,000's of small businesses with this silly shit?
Italy will fare better than we will on the long term.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
Notice just emailed out by my gym:

quote:

Through executive order by [Michigan] Governor Whitmer, all gyms and health clubs must be shut down today by 3 pm effective until March 30th. Please plan accordingly and feel free to get your workout in prior to 3 pm. At 3 pm, we will be asking any members remaining in the club to kindly exit per this order, and we will be disabling 24 hour door access until this order is lifted.

No surprise there.

My gym sent out their notice yesterday that they were closing its doors. Before it was just classes, now it's total. Can't ski, so it looks like I'll be breaking out the bike a little early even though there's still a good bit of snow on the ground. The weather is otherwise beautiful though so I'm actually looking forward to a nice bike ride, even if it is a bit brisk outside.

MN Board of Dentistry just issued a "recommendation" to postpone all non-emergency treatment for at least 14 days. I guess I'll have a couple of weeks to watch the snow melt.

local af base just locked down - mission essential only and families. retirees can enter to pick up meds at the pharmacy. medical is off base.

My wife just texted me to tell me that one of her work friends just tested positive for it, and she talked to her the day she returned from leave, some ten days ago. She also said a fair bit of the other people she spent working with the last few weeks are home on quarantine. It’s getting closer to us.

quote:

Originally posted by oddball:

Very appropriate

quote:

Originally posted by AirmanJeff:

quote:

Originally posted by TXJIM:

I am not a boomer but please stow that boomer bullshit. So fucking sick of hearing that. A big chunk of the people here on this board are in fact boomers, is your intention to insult them as stupid?

Not an insult - it's simply a generational difference, no need to get your panties in a wad.

Yes, it is absolutely an insult. If you are not aware of that perhaps you shouldn't be using it.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
I mean seriously, how much toilet paper can one fit in his garage?

To answer that, we'd need to know if its a one, two, or three car garage. And if you moved the cars outside, you could fill them with TP, too.

quote:

Originally posted by Ryanp225:
For fuck sake! What are there, less than 1700 confirmed cases throughout the whole damned country and we are going to destroy 100,000's of small businesses with this silly shit?

The thing (rational) people are worried about isn't number of cases currently in the United States, it's the rate at which the virus can spread.

There were ~1700 cases on Thursday. Yesterday, three days later, there were ~3700. The spread isn't linear - just because we saw an increase of 2000 cases over the last three days doesn't mean we expect to see an increase of 2000 cases over the next three days. It's exponential - the number of cases (more than) doubled over the last three days, and we expect the number of cases to keep doubling every several days (exact estimates vary across a range of something like 2 to 8 days) until something changes. Hopefully the measures now in effect will be enough to change that.

quote:

Originally posted by Ryanp225:
Italy will fare better than we will on the long term.

Do you think that Italy has taken less stringent measures than we have? Because they haven't.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news...r-essential-services

quote:

Italy on Thursday moved to virtually bring a halt to normal life, paring the economy down to just essential services in a desperate bid to stem the advance of the deadly coronavirus.

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte ordered all shops in the country to close except for grocery stores, pharmacies and few others until March 25.

Thank you Maladat. I’ve tried to explain that so many times over the last few days I couldn’t do it again

Also, the numbers are artificially low because of the lag on testing. My wife has seen patients she thinks likely have it but can’t get tested because they aren’t sick enough and don’t have the travel connection

Once this drive thru testing gets going I suspect we will see a lot of people already have it

I have been Virus Splaned to death. I don't fucking care anymore.

quote:

Originally posted by AirmanJeff:
Not an insult - it's simply a generational difference, no need to get your panties in a wad.

Free clue: Most boomers were brought up by parents who experienced The Great Depression and WWII. I know I was. From my parents I learned what "bad" really is, that things are rarely as bad as they seem, and the value of self-sufficiency.

And you believe people like me are the primary panickers, eh?

quote:

The thing (rational) people are worried about isn't number of cases currently in the United States, it's the rate at which the virus can spread.

There were ~1700 cases on Thursday. Yesterday, three days later, there were ~3700. The spread isn't linear - just because we saw an increase of 2000 cases over the last three days doesn't mean we expect to see an increase of 2000 cases over the next three days. It's exponential - the number of cases (more than) doubled over the last three days, and we expect the number of cases to keep doubling every several days (exact estimates vary across a range of something like 2 to 8 days) until something changes. Hopefully the measures now in effect will be enough to change that.

If you look at the graph here:
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/
and hover over a particular day it will tell you the cumulative cases to that point, and the new cases that day.
The new cases have been running around 20-25% of the cumulative cases.

Some factoids, grist for the mill. China is not unacquainted with pandemics - a short list:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30180422

From the genomics and epidemiology, this virus, without question, unequivocally and undeniably, originated in China, from the province of Hubei. It may exist elsewhere in the wild, but this pandemic started there as Ground Zero. As did almost certainly the H1N1 pandemic of 1918. During the second wave of that pandemic later in the year, China lost the equivalent of one-tenth of the population of the US at the time. I'll let that sink in - the word "decimation" refers to the Roman military practice of killing every tenth man in a cohort as punishment for failure or mutiny. The US lost only (a strange qualifier) 675,000 during the entire pandemic, or about 0.7% of the population. We were no better equipped to deal with a pandemic than the Chinese - immunilogically, medically or socially - we left them on stretchers to die. The Chinese were killed by population density and contact.

quote:

Originally posted by TXJIM:

quote:

Originally posted by AirmanJeff:

quote:

Originally posted by TXJIM:

I am not a boomer but please stow that boomer bullshit. So fucking sick of hearing that. A big chunk of the people here on this board are in fact boomers, is your intention to insult them as stupid?

Not an insult - it's simply a generational difference, no need to get your panties in a wad.

Yes, it is absolutely an insult. If you are not aware of that perhaps you shouldn't be using it.

It's only insulting if one lets it be. Sticks and Stones, eh. Or are some that sensitive?

TP stuff is crazy. I hate to type this because I don't want to get bagged on....

Growing up in poverty there were times when we had no TP. And I was too ashamed to go to a friends house and ask if I could take a shit. The parent, if you want to call her that (her haircut appointments and clothes buying took precedence over the bills and groceries) would s steal rolls from work occasionally. But, the point to my story....when I was a kid, and I had to go #2 and we had no TP, well I'd hop in the shower and spread 'em. The shower head works like a bidet. So unless your water supply gets turned off a shower head will work in a jam.

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by Ryanp225:
For fuck sake! What are there, less than 1700 confirmed cases throughout the whole damned country and we are going to destroy 100,000's of small businesses with this silly shit?

The thing (rational) people are worried about isn't number of cases currently in the United States, it's the rate at which the virus can spread.

This is why I asked Doc H what the current thinking was regarding the R0 of SARS-CoV-2. He replied current thinking suggests it's probably around 3.6. If accurate: That's more than twice as infectious as most common seasonal influenzas. Given the other aspects of this virus, that makes for a pretty potent problem that needs to be treated with respect, in my inexpert opinion.

Besides all the other issues, one that's received scant attention is the virus' probability of mutating. The more it replicates, the better the odds of that happening. Should it happen, people already infected with and having gotten over the current strain will likely be susceptible all over again.

I'm not trying to buy trouble or induce FUD. I'm just trying to explain how this thing isn't "just like a cold or the flu."

quote:

Originally posted by AirmanJeff:

quote:

Originally posted by TXJIM:

I am not a boomer but please stow that boomer bullshit. So fucking sick of hearing that. A big chunk of the people here on this board are in fact boomers, is your intention to insult them as stupid?

Not an insult - it's simply a generational difference, no need to get your panties in a wad.

Bullshit.

Boomer, used that way, is an insult. THe Urban Dictionary offers this definition:

Boomer... A slang term for Baby Boomer, often used in a derogatory manner.

If you want a phrase to describe the generation from 1947 to 1960, try "Baby Boomers" or "people 60-77 years old."