Just realized something about CA - the governess closed or restricted capacity of all non-unionized businesses (farmer's markets, diners, bars, etc) but has not imposed state mandated restrictions on unionized businesses (grocery stores are a big one in this state).

I wonder how that was determined....

Question: Given 2 basically identical healthy middle-aged people, say in the 40's, with identical medical history, does anyone know what causes one person to have severe symptoms and the other to have very mild ones? Is it based on which parts of the body the virus reaches?

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:
We - the Royal "we" - seem to be staggering at the starting block with a - rather mild so far - pandemic, but improving.

I was thinking about this earlier this morning. That may be one of the few silver linings in what's going on. Compared to something really nasty getting loose (e.g.: Ebola), SARS-CoV-2/Covid-19 isn't particularly horrible. So perhaps a good, if expensive, exercise.

Question, Doc H: Do we have any current, more-or-less credible, guesstimates on R0? First it was thought to be as high as 6+, then as low as 2+, now I'm seeing some suggestions it may fall more near 4.5.

Seasonal influenza falls right around 1.6. SARS-CoV-2 does seem to be a lot more infectious, but just how much more?

An interesting (unpublished) Yale study early on:

https://www.medrxiv.org/conten...020.02.16.20023770v1

With an R0 of 3.6. And a more interesting conclusion that the pandemic would end in early April.

Same thing from JMV, early:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.co...ll/10.1002/jmv.25723

My educated guess is, based on the one adaptation already seen from SARS-Cov-2, about 4. Which means an earlier estimate from Harvard predicting 70% of the global population exposed by the end of the year is not unlikely.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by TAllen01:
Why would it be fun? I am here in Ohio where the same thing is happening, and it is terrifying.

"Terrifying?" Get a grip, man. It's concerning, sure. But should hardly be "terrifying."

I've got an asthmatic son who, if he gets it, well, I don't want to put that down in writing.

I also know I can't get meat and some other staples at the grocery store. I've tried.

I also know that medication supplies are about to be interrupted because so many come from China.

I also know it is in my community, and several people with it are being treated at two of my local hospitals (and some have been released). It literally could be right next door.

I know a lot of my friends and family who are over 60, or have pre-existing lung and heart conditions, will have a significant chance of dying when (not if) they get it.

Yes, that's terrifying to me. Maybe not to you, but to me, it is.

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:
The libtard Governor of PA has ordered that all bars and restaurants in PA 5 counties, including Montgomery County PA which borders Philly, close down for 2 weeks and the restaurants can only do take-out. Many of them are just not set up for this and shutting down, including two restaurants owned by my sister and brother in law in Phoenixville, PA. I now fear they will not survive this and are basically already out of business.

What is hilarious is he just tried to order Philadelphia to do the same now and the equally libtarded Mayor of Philly is refusing to comply, citing Philadelphia's "home rule" that gives them the ability to not follow state mandates.

This is going to be a total shit-show.

Washington States resident commie did the same thing last night. It's fucked over thousands of people.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
Some of y'all are panicking as badly about the economic impact as others are about the virus, itself.

Next up: People panicking over people panicking.

The economic damage from this panic will be far worse than the virus.

Mark my words. No panic, just facts.

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:
https://www.medrxiv.org/conten...020.02.16.20023770v1

With an R0 of 3.6. And a more interesting conclusion that the pandemic would end in early April.

I think they are saying that they expect the epidemic in China to be over by early April, not worldwide.

I’m being told that around here local cops have elected to not enforce an UnConstitutional bar and restaurant ban.

quote:

Originally posted by bozman:
TAllen01...

I think RHINO was speaking about watching the liberal utopia fucks having to deal with the real world and that their communist utopia is all fantasy.

I am also in Ohio (hell, we may even be close).

Take a deep breath and chill man...

If you are in central Ohio, you are OK (for now). Butler County, where I am, has 6 confirmed, and groceries are in limited supply and rationed.

And yes, I get that he want to 'own the libs,' but my point is that this is happening in red states with Republican governors too. It is not fun for me to watch a deadly virus invade this country and destroy the economy and businesses, no matter the political leaning of a particular city or state.

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:
https://www.medrxiv.org/conten...020.02.16.20023770v1

With an R0 of 3.6. And a more interesting conclusion that the pandemic would end in early April.

I think they are saying that they expect the epidemic in China to be over by early April, not worldwide.

That is correct, and in fact looks to be trending toward.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
Next up: People panicking over people panicking.

Panicking is more contagious than the virus.

TAllen01,

Nothing I or anyone else on this board can do to help you deal with reality.

Our grocery stores are empty too, me and the wife also require some meds that may soon be unavailable, and my mother is in her late 70's. However, what I will not do (unlike many others here), is lose my everlovin shit.

If you feel you need to shelter in place and eat rice and beans to protect you and yours, then do it.

If you are unprepared for this, then I am sorry. People on this forum have been talking for years about cleaning their rifles, prepping (not crazy, but having a couple of weeks work of supplies), watching and learning what has happened with numerous recent natural disasters, etc.

Please stop with the panic.

Most of us will get through this just fine as long as we keep our heads about us.

With respect...

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:
I’m being told that around here local cops have elected to not enforce an UnConstitutional bar and restaurant ban.

Molon Let eat!

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:
I’m being told that around here local cops have elected to not enforce an UnConstitutional bar and restaurant ban.

That’s great to hear.

quote:

Originally posted by TAllen01:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by TAllen01:
Why would it be fun? I am here in Ohio where the same thing is happening, and it is terrifying.

"Terrifying?" Get a grip, man. It's concerning, sure. But should hardly be "terrifying."

I've got an asthmatic son who, if he gets it, well, I don't want to put that down in writing.

I've an asthmatic wife with a weak immune system, who is deathly allergic to many common medications and most antibiotics.

quote:

Originally posted by TAllen01:
I also know I can't get meat and some other staples at the grocery store. I've tried.

Unless you're hurting for staples, right now, my suspicion is the mindless panic that's causing everybody to buy up everything in sight will soon subside and you'll be able to acquire those things. Of course ICBW.

quote:

Originally posted by TAllen01:
I also know that medication supplies are about to be interrupted because so many come from China.

See above.

quote:

Originally posted by TAllen01:
I know a lot of my friends and family who are over 60, or have pre-existing lung and heart conditions, will have a significant chance of dying when (not if) they get it.

Don't we all? Hell, I'm at least marginally in said group, being nearly 70 years old, an ex-smoker, and recently diagnosed with mild coronary artery disease.

quote:

Originally posted by TAllen01:
Yes, that's terrifying to me. Maybe not to you, but to me, it is.

"Terrified," to me, means "A quivering lump of Jello frozen in a corner, able to do little more than babble incoherently." If you're still able to form a coherent sentence, still able to type on a keyboard, you're probably very concerned or worried. You're probably not, literally, terrified.

I haven't been able to get key items with having little children like baby wipes and powder, etc

Placed an order via Amazon Prime and got some but now seeing that even Amazon is having supply chain issues between the panic ordering and China supply chain being cut off.

The next few months are going to be fun.

My pregnant wife has been pretty stoic so far but is now starting to get uneasy about the empty shelves everywhere and stores now restricting hours which is NOT a good sign. She said "I don't have any meat!" - I opened up the freezer and said "what? We can't fit anything else in here because it's FULL of venison!"

She also said she was having a hard time finding bread anywhere and I said "Did you forget you married an ex-baker and pasty chef?"

I had her get flour and yeast and oil on her last run which luckily hasn't been stripped bare yet and told her we will make our own bread if it comes down to that. Hell, I might be planting a big vegetable garden in the back yard this year at the current rate! My COVID-19 Victory Garden!

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
Some of y'all are panicking as badly about the economic impact as others are about the virus, itself.

Next up: People panicking over people panicking.

The economic damage from this panic will be far worse than the virus.

Mark my words. No panic, just facts.

And as a consequence, is anyone even talking about the likelihood of a spike in suicide rates? And after we finally started to see a real drop in those rates after the terrible Obama years.

quote:

Originally posted by bozman:
TAllen01...

I think RHINO was speaking about watching the liberal utopia fucks having to deal with the real world and that their communist utopia is all fantasy.

I am also in Ohio (hell, we may even be close).

Take a deep breath and chill man...

I probably live a little north of you. I am not panicked. I have a small retail tire business. Several employees rely on this place for their living. If people stop driving they stop buying tires. I have a couple residential rentals. When tenants don't have jobs they have trouble making rent. I also own one commercial rental property. Guess what, it's a restaurant. It's a pizza place so delivery and carry out will probably save him. The point is that while I am not panicked, I'm a long way from chill.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
And as a consequence, is anyone even talking about the likelihood of a spike in suicide rates? And after we finally started to see a real drop in those rates after the terrible Obama years.

Man, you've got to cool it. Now you're going out and dreaming up bad shit to happen.

Snap out of it

quote:

Originally posted by bozman:
If you are unprepared for this, then I am sorry. People on this forum have been talking for years about cleaning their rifles, prepping (not crazy, but having a couple of weeks work of supplies), watching and leaning what has happened with numerous recent natural disasters, etc.

This ^^^^^

I don't mean to attack TAllen01, and I'm not. But, generally speaking, we all should have learned from The Millennium Bug to engage in a bit of on-going preparedness.

I suspect what happened was the IT industry and PHBs got enough advance warning, and took it seriously enough, that the vast majority of systems that would have otherwise been paralyzed were fixed in advance. The little that was missed was hardly a drop in the bucket.

The unfortunate lesson most people took from this was "It was no big deal. Just the Usual Suspects freaking out and over-hyping everything, as usual." So everybody let their guard back down.

I'm not bragging, just pointing out that, as soon as I saw how this was developing in the early stages I told my wife "I have a bad feeling about this. We should prep like we did for Y2K." She agreed and we did. A good two-three weeks before it even started dominating the "news," much less became a problem here.

Had we not done that, been caught with our pants down, I'd be quite concerned right about now, and more than a little annoyed with myself. But I wouldn't be terrified. Or even panicking.