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Nullus Anxietas |
And casinos.
I dunno about that. He isn't really saying anything other than new cases declined, and posits a number of hypotheses as to why--incl. China's extreme measures, the likes of which, implemented here, are drawing fire from many here. Same with Israel. He notes "Israel currently does not have enough cases to provide the data needed to make estimates...," but didn't Israel crack down, hard, when this thing started ramping-up there? "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe "If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher | |||
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Member |
Some are missing that this is happening in a super-compressed time frame. For example, yes, we have many flu deaths per year. But our healthcare system manages it, because it is spread out over a long enough time that hospitals still have enough beds and ventilators to handle the sick. But just imagine everyone getting the flu AT THE SAME TIME and needing ventilators and hospital beds. There aren't enough to handle it all at once. That's the reason to shut down various events, schools, etc. It will still come, but at a pace that we can handle. Picture the car accident example. Yes, many people die in car accidents each year. But what if they all happened in the same week, in your state, in your town. How many beds would be available to handle them? Not enough. But spread out, it is manageable, and buys more time for a vaccine, etc. It is certainly a tough pill to swallow, but all the countries (ours included) are doing it because they simply have to. There is no other choice. Trust me, Trump would not have done this to the economy if there were other choices. | |||
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Fortified with Sleestak |
It's definitely going to get interesting. I read an article several years ago about how many in NY city use their ovens and refrigerators for storage due to lack of space. Their solution to eating is simply to go out, order in, or go to the local market every day for fresh ingredients. On the bright side, their sweaters won't be wrinkled. I have the heart of a lion.......and a lifetime ban from the Toronto Zoo.- Unknown | |||
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Member |
I don't why this is such a hard concept for people to understand. We don't have the capacity at hospitals to handle millions of patients at one time. All of these measures are being undertaken to merely slow down the spread and make it more manageable. | |||
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Something wild is loose |
As an aside, one of the critical concerns is, certainly, hospital/ICU bed capacity in the US. Some recommendations floating now, productively, include looking at semi-mothballed military facilities that could potentially be ramped up quicker than building new facilities. The USN also has a couple of these: https://www.southcom.mil/Media...n-America-Caribbean/ That have a 1,000 bed capacity that could be expanded/enhanced fairly easily with more equipment, and parked where needed at designated staging facilities. Not there yet, or even needed - yet - but at least at twinkle-in-the-eye stage. We have very detailed plans and playbooks for nearly every military contingency. We - the Royal "we" - seem to be staggering at the starting block with a - rather mild so far - pandemic, but improving. "And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day" | |||
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Void Where Prohibited |
Medical facilities are looking for places to set up additional beds and convert existing non-critical beds to critical care, including ventilators. My employer started doing this about 10 days ago; I'm sure many others are doing the same. This is one of the ways they are trying to stay 'ahead of the curve'. "If Gun Control worked, Chicago would look like Mayberry, not Thunderdome" - Cam Edwards | |||
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Member |
It's actually worse than that - he was only saying that new cases declined in China, after extreme quarantine measures were taken. We are nowhere CLOSE to implementing measures as severe as those in China. Outside of China, daily new cases have continued to increase. Data through yesterday: | |||
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Go ahead punk, make my day |
It will be fun to watch, from afar. | |||
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Nullus Anxietas |
I was thinking about this earlier this morning. That may be one of the few silver linings in what's going on. Compared to something really nasty getting loose (e.g.: Ebola), SARS-CoV-2/Covid-19 isn't particularly horrible. So perhaps a good, if expensive, exercise. Question, Doc H: Do we have any current, more-or-less credible, guesstimates on R0? First it was thought to be as high as 6+, then as low as 2+, now I'm seeing some suggestions it may fall more near 4.5. Seasonal influenza falls right around 1.6. SARS-CoV-2 does seem to be a lot more infectious, but just how much more? "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe "If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher | |||
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Member |
Why would it be fun? I am here in Ohio where the same thing is happening, and it is terrifying. Groceries rationed, limits on everything, most essentials are out of stock, including meat. We have 6 confirmed coronavirus cases already in my county, so people have it around me and my family, and who knows where they have deposited it. Schools closed, bars closed, restaurants closed. It is real, and it is definitely not fun if you are in the middle of it. | |||
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Get my pies outta the oven! |
The libtard Governor of PA has ordered that all bars and restaurants in PA 5 counties, including Montgomery County PA which borders Philly, close down for 2 weeks and the restaurants can only do take-out. Many of them are just not set up for this and shutting down, including two restaurants owned by my sister and brother in law in Phoenixville, PA. I now fear they will not survive this and are basically already out of business. What is hilarious is he just tried to order Philadelphia to do the same now and the equally libtarded Mayor of Philly is refusing to comply, citing Philadelphia's "home rule" that gives them the ability to not follow state mandates. This is going to be a total shit-show. | |||
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Member |
TAllen01... I think RHINO was speaking about watching the liberal utopia fucks having to deal with the real world and that their communist utopia is all fantasy. I am also in Ohio (hell, we may even be close). Take a deep breath and chill man... The "Boz" | |||
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Nullus Anxietas |
"Terrifying?" Get a grip, man. It's concerning, sure. But should hardly be "terrifying." "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe "If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher | |||
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Get my pies outta the oven! |
When this is all over and done with, there will be thousands of restaurants closed and out of business. I would NOT want to be in this business right now, no way no how. Most of them cannot afford to be closed for two days, let alone two weeks. Then after two weeks it gets extended like what just happened in Washington state? They are totally fucked. | |||
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Nullus Anxietas |
Some of y'all are panicking as badly about the economic impact as others are about the virus, itself. Next up: People panicking over people panicking. "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe "If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher | |||
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Member |
The available data from the Diamond Princess event should help people understand what we are dealing with. The ship had 3700 passengers and crew. A lot of the passengers were in the high risk pool aged 60 and above. They were in a confined space and sharing lots of air. The event lasted almost a month from January 21 to February 20. At the start of the event, the R0 was estimated to be 14.8. Once basic control measures (e.g. quarantine, social distancing, disinfection, etc.) where put in place the R0 dropped to 1.78. At the end of the event, the attack rate was 18.8%. Those are not end of the world kind of numbers, especially given such a confined population. Diamond Princess To date I can find only 7 deaths in that group with 15 remaining in serious/critical condition. In other words, this can be controlled and it is unlikely that we will overrun our medical system as long as we take some rational steps. There is no need to panic and to trash the economy or destroy many small businesses. I believe Singapore has a solid approach: Singapore ________________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________ "It is easier to fool someone than to convince them they have been fooled." Unknown observer of human behavior. | |||
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Member |
Meanwhile in San Francisco, the stumbling mayor wants to suspend rent....and leave property owners out to dry. It be one thing if they proposed some kind of stimulus package for renters AND landlords who have mortgages but, the Dems naturally view all property owners as rapacious, evil beings hell-bent on squeezing everyones wallets. Breed prohibits evictions of tenants who can’t make rent due to coronavirus
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The Unmanned Writer |
Just realized something about CA - the governess closed or restricted capacity of all non-unionized businesses (farmer's markets, diners, bars, etc) but has not imposed state mandated restrictions on unionized businesses (grocery stores are a big one in this state). I wonder how that was determined.... Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it. "If dogs don't go to Heaven, I want to go where they go" Will Rogers The definition of the words we used, carry a meaning of their own... | |||
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Domari Nolo |
Question: Given 2 basically identical healthy middle-aged people, say in the 40's, with identical medical history, does anyone know what causes one person to have severe symptoms and the other to have very mild ones? Is it based on which parts of the body the virus reaches? | |||
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Something wild is loose |
An interesting (unpublished) Yale study early on: https://www.medrxiv.org/conten...020.02.16.20023770v1 With an R0 of 3.6. And a more interesting conclusion that the pandemic would end in early April. Same thing from JMV, early: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.co...ll/10.1002/jmv.25723 My educated guess is, based on the one adaptation already seen from SARS-Cov-2, about 4. Which means an earlier estimate from Harvard predicting 70% of the global population exposed by the end of the year is not unlikely. "And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day" | |||
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