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When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2) Login/Join 
Nullus Anxietas
Picture of ensigmatic
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Rightwire:
Michigan just pulled the plug on all restaurants and bars.

And casinos.

quote:
Originally posted by Rightwire:
Interesting but long read on the decline of COVID spread.

I dunno about that. He isn't really saying anything other than new cases declined, and posits a number of hypotheses as to why--incl. China's extreme measures, the likes of which, implemented here, are drawing fire from many here.

Same with Israel. He notes "Israel currently does not have enough cases to provide the data needed to make estimates...," but didn't Israel crack down, hard, when this thing started ramping-up there?



"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
"If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
 
Posts: 26009 | Location: S.E. Michigan | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by truckola:
I remember thinking China is locking down 750 million people when they had a reported 900 deaths in a population of 1.4 billion seemed to be excessive.

Now we have a President/Government basically ruining a very robust economy for the same reason.

Why? what are we missing?


Some are missing that this is happening in a super-compressed time frame. For example, yes, we have many flu deaths per year. But our healthcare system manages it, because it is spread out over a long enough time that hospitals still have enough beds and ventilators to handle the sick.

But just imagine everyone getting the flu AT THE SAME TIME and needing ventilators and hospital beds. There aren't enough to handle it all at once. That's the reason to shut down various events, schools, etc. It will still come, but at a pace that we can handle.

Picture the car accident example. Yes, many people die in car accidents each year. But what if they all happened in the same week, in your state, in your town. How many beds would be available to handle them? Not enough. But spread out, it is manageable, and buys more time for a vaccine, etc.


It is certainly a tough pill to swallow, but all the countries (ours included) are doing it because they simply have to. There is no other choice. Trust me, Trump would not have done this to the economy if there were other choices.
 
Posts: 514 | Registered: November 13, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Fortified with Sleestak
Picture of thunderson
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It's definitely going to get interesting.

I read an article several years ago about how many in NY city use their ovens and refrigerators for storage due to lack of space. Their solution to eating is simply to go out, order in, or go to the local market every day for fresh ingredients.

On the bright side, their sweaters won't be wrinkled.



I have the heart of a lion.......and a lifetime ban from the Toronto Zoo.- Unknown
 
Posts: 5371 | Location: Shenandoah Valley, VA | Registered: November 05, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by TAllen01:
quote:
Originally posted by truckola:
I remember thinking China is locking down 750 million people when they had a reported 900 deaths in a population of 1.4 billion seemed to be excessive.

Now we have a President/Government basically ruining a very robust economy for the same reason.

Why? what are we missing?


Some are missing that this is happening in a super-compressed time frame. For example, yes, we have many flu deaths per year. But our healthcare system manages it, because it is spread out over a long enough time that hospitals still have enough beds and ventilators to handle the sick.

But just imagine everyone getting the flu AT THE SAME TIME and needing ventilators and hospital beds. There aren't enough to handle it all at once. That's the reason to shut down various events, schools, etc. It will still come, but at a pace that we can handle.


I don't why this is such a hard concept for people to understand. We don't have the capacity at hospitals to handle millions of patients at one time. All of these measures are being undertaken to merely slow down the spread and make it more manageable.
 
Posts: 2690 | Location: Baltimore | Registered: October 22, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Something wild
is loose
Picture of Doc H.
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As an aside, one of the critical concerns is, certainly, hospital/ICU bed capacity in the US. Some recommendations floating now, productively, include looking at semi-mothballed military facilities that could potentially be ramped up quicker than building new facilities. The USN also has a couple of these:

https://www.southcom.mil/Media...n-America-Caribbean/

That have a 1,000 bed capacity that could be expanded/enhanced fairly easily with more equipment, and parked where needed at designated staging facilities. Not there yet, or even needed - yet - but at least at twinkle-in-the-eye stage. We have very detailed plans and playbooks for nearly every military contingency. We - the Royal "we" - seem to be staggering at the starting block with a - rather mild so far - pandemic, but improving.



"And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day"
 
Posts: 2746 | Location: The Shire | Registered: October 22, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Void Where Prohibited
Picture of WaterburyBob
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Medical facilities are looking for places to set up additional beds and convert existing non-critical beds to critical care, including ventilators. My employer started doing this about 10 days ago; I'm sure many others are doing the same. This is one of the ways they are trying to stay 'ahead of the curve'.



"If Gun Control worked, Chicago would look like Mayberry, not Thunderdome" - Cam Edwards
 
Posts: 16688 | Location: Under the Boot of Tyranny in Connectistan | Registered: February 02, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of maladat
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by ensigmatic:
quote:
Originally posted by Rightwire:
Interesting but long read on the decline of COVID spread.

I dunno about that. He isn't really saying anything other than new cases declined, and posits a number of hypotheses as to why--incl. China's extreme measures, the likes of which, implemented here, are drawing fire from many here.

Same with Israel. He notes "Israel currently does not have enough cases to provide the data needed to make estimates...," but didn't Israel crack down, hard, when this thing started ramping-up there?


It's actually worse than that - he was only saying that new cases declined in China, after extreme quarantine measures were taken. We are nowhere CLOSE to implementing measures as severe as those in China.

Outside of China, daily new cases have continued to increase. Data through yesterday:

 
Posts: 6319 | Location: CA | Registered: January 24, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Go ahead punk, make my day
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quote:
Originally posted by chellim1:
New York City Closes all Schools, Restaurants, Bars, Nightclubs, Cafe’s, Coffee Houses, Movie Theaters, and Public Spaces...

The Big Apple is about to get very interesting… A dense, mostly liberal population, all bound up in close proximity, now instructed by executive order and forced mandatory compliance, to essentially shut down.
[Link to NYC Press Releases]

New York Mayor de Blasio – “Our lives are all changing in ways that were unimaginable just a week ago. We are taking a series of actions that we never would have taken otherwise in an effort to save the lives of loved ones and our neighbors.

Now it is time to take yet another drastic step. The virus can spread rapidly through the close interactions New Yorkers have in restaurants, bars and places where we sit close together. We have to break that cycle.”

Effective March 16, New York City schools will close.

“Tomorrow, I will sign an Executive Order limiting restaurants, bars and cafes to food take-out and delivery. Nightclubs, movie theaters, small theater houses, and concert venues must all close. The order will go into effect Tuesday, March 17 at 9:00 AM.”

“This is not a decision I make lightly. These places are part of the heart and soul of our city. They are part of what it means to be a New Yorker. But our city is facing an unprecedented threat, and we must respond with a wartime mentality.”

https://theconservativetreehou...s-and-public-spaces/

It will be fun to watch, from afar.
 
Posts: 45798 | Registered: July 12, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Nullus Anxietas
Picture of ensigmatic
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Doc H.:
We - the Royal "we" - seem to be staggering at the starting block with a - rather mild so far - pandemic, but improving.

I was thinking about this earlier this morning. That may be one of the few silver linings in what's going on. Compared to something really nasty getting loose (e.g.: Ebola), SARS-CoV-2/Covid-19 isn't particularly horrible. So perhaps a good, if expensive, exercise.

Question, Doc H: Do we have any current, more-or-less credible, guesstimates on R0? First it was thought to be as high as 6+, then as low as 2+, now I'm seeing some suggestions it may fall more near 4.5.

Seasonal influenza falls right around 1.6. SARS-CoV-2 does seem to be a lot more infectious, but just how much more?



"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
"If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
 
Posts: 26009 | Location: S.E. Michigan | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by RHINOWSO:
quote:
Originally posted by chellim1:
New York City Closes all Schools, Restaurants, Bars, Nightclubs, Cafe’s, Coffee Houses, Movie Theaters, and Public Spaces...

The Big Apple is about to get very interesting… A dense, mostly liberal population, all bound up in close proximity, now instructed by executive order and forced mandatory compliance, to essentially shut down.
[Link to NYC Press Releases]

New York Mayor de Blasio – “Our lives are all changing in ways that were unimaginable just a week ago. We are taking a series of actions that we never would have taken otherwise in an effort to save the lives of loved ones and our neighbors.

Now it is time to take yet another drastic step. The virus can spread rapidly through the close interactions New Yorkers have in restaurants, bars and places where we sit close together. We have to break that cycle.”

Effective March 16, New York City schools will close.

“Tomorrow, I will sign an Executive Order limiting restaurants, bars and cafes to food take-out and delivery. Nightclubs, movie theaters, small theater houses, and concert venues must all close. The order will go into effect Tuesday, March 17 at 9:00 AM.”

“This is not a decision I make lightly. These places are part of the heart and soul of our city. They are part of what it means to be a New Yorker. But our city is facing an unprecedented threat, and we must respond with a wartime mentality.”

https://theconservativetreehou...s-and-public-spaces/

It will be fun to watch, from afar.


Why would it be fun? I am here in Ohio where the same thing is happening, and it is terrifying. Groceries rationed, limits on everything, most essentials are out of stock, including meat. We have 6 confirmed coronavirus cases already in my county, so people have it around me and my family, and who knows where they have deposited it. Schools closed, bars closed, restaurants closed. It is real, and it is definitely not fun if you are in the middle of it.
 
Posts: 514 | Registered: November 13, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Get my pies
outta the oven!

Picture of PASig
posted Hide Post
The libtard Governor of PA has ordered that all bars and restaurants in PA 5 counties, including Montgomery County PA which borders Philly, close down for 2 weeks and the restaurants can only do take-out. Many of them are just not set up for this and shutting down, including two restaurants owned by my sister and brother in law in Phoenixville, PA. I now fear they will not survive this and are basically already out of business. Frown

What is hilarious is he just tried to order Philadelphia to do the same now and the equally libtarded Mayor of Philly is refusing to comply, citing Philadelphia's "home rule" that gives them the ability to not follow state mandates.

This is going to be a total shit-show. Eek


 
Posts: 35040 | Location: Pennsylvania | Registered: November 12, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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TAllen01...

I think RHINO was speaking about watching the liberal utopia fucks having to deal with the real world and that their communist utopia is all fantasy.

I am also in Ohio (hell, we may even be close).

Take a deep breath and chill man...


The "Boz"
 
Posts: 1555 | Location: Central Ohio, USA | Registered: May 29, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Nullus Anxietas
Picture of ensigmatic
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by TAllen01:
Why would it be fun? I am here in Ohio where the same thing is happening, and it is terrifying.

"Terrifying?" Get a grip, man. It's concerning, sure. But should hardly be "terrifying."



"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
"If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
 
Posts: 26009 | Location: S.E. Michigan | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Get my pies
outta the oven!

Picture of PASig
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by frayedends:
Holy Crap! Governor Baker in Massachusetts just banned restaurants and bars from opening except for takeout. Small business will be crushed. I know a few bar owners that can not survive this. WTF.

https://www.boston25news.com/n...RXFD5HE4DHPRSRUHKQA/


When this is all over and done with, there will be thousands of restaurants closed and out of business. I would NOT want to be in this business right now, no way no how.

Most of them cannot afford to be closed for two days, let alone two weeks. Then after two weeks it gets extended like what just happened in Washington state? They are totally fucked. Frown


 
Posts: 35040 | Location: Pennsylvania | Registered: November 12, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Nullus Anxietas
Picture of ensigmatic
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Some of y'all are panicking as badly about the economic impact as others are about the virus, itself.

Next up: People panicking over people panicking.



"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
"If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
 
Posts: 26009 | Location: S.E. Michigan | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of leavemebe
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The available data from the Diamond Princess event should help people understand what we are dealing with. The ship had 3700 passengers and crew. A lot of the passengers were in the high risk pool aged 60 and above. They were in a confined space and sharing lots of air. The event lasted almost a month from January 21 to February 20.

At the start of the event, the R0 was estimated to be 14.8. Once basic control measures (e.g. quarantine, social distancing, disinfection, etc.) where put in place the R0 dropped to 1.78. At the end of the event, the attack rate was 18.8%. Those are not end of the world kind of numbers, especially given such a confined population.

Diamond Princess

To date I can find only 7 deaths in that group with 15 remaining in serious/critical condition.

In other words, this can be controlled and it is unlikely that we will overrun our medical system as long as we take some rational steps. There is no need to panic and to trash the economy or destroy many small businesses.

I believe Singapore has a solid approach:

Singapore

________________________________________________________________________________________


____________________________

"It is easier to fool someone than to convince them they have been fooled." Unknown observer of human behavior.
 
Posts: 675 | Location: Virginia | Registered: July 13, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Meanwhile in San Francisco, the stumbling mayor wants to suspend rent....and leave property owners out to dry. It be one thing if they proposed some kind of stimulus package for renters AND landlords who have mortgages but, the Dems naturally view all property owners as rapacious, evil beings hell-bent on squeezing everyones wallets. Roll Eyes
Breed prohibits evictions of tenants who can’t make rent due to coronavirus
quote:
Mayor London Breed on Friday enacted a moratorium on evictions of tenants who are unable to pay rent due to impacts from the coronavirus.

Breed is using her legal authority under a Feb. 25 local emergency declaration to prevent landlords from evicting any resident who is unable to pay rent as a result of losing income caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The prohibition is in place for an initial 30-day period, and Breed could extend it for an additional 30 days.

Confirmed cases of COVID-19 in San Francisco have increased from the first two reported last Thursday to 23 reported as of Friday morning. The local economy has taken a hit as a result of the spread and measures taken by health officials to encourage people to stay home, telecommute and cancel events of 250 or more. Hotel occupancy rates have dropped to as low as 20 percent, lower than after 9/11, and the convention industry has shut down until at least mid-May.

Hotels alone in San Francisco employ about 25,000 people.

The moratorium will prevent any resident from being evicted who has lost income as result of a business closure, a reduction of hours or wages, layoffs or medical expenses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Protecting public health means keeping people secure in their housing, which we know is a challenge right now as our economy and our workers are being severely impacted by this crisis,” Breed said in a statement. “This all part of our larger plan to provide support and resources to everyone in our city who is suffering under the spread of COVID-19.”

In order to take advantage of the moratorium, a tenant must first tell their landlord that they cannot make rent due to the impact of COVID-19. Within one week of the notice, the tenant is required to provide some form of proof they cannot pay rent.

Tenants will still have to pay the rent owed at some point. They have until six months after the emergency declaration is terminated to repay any back due rent.

The eviction moratorium has drawn support from a number of groups, including the San Francisco Apartment Association and the Legal Assistance to the Elderly.

“All of LAE’s clients fall into a high risk group,” said Laura Chiera, executive director of Legal Assistance to the Elderly, in a statement. “We have been extremely worried for their health and safety during this time when it is difficult to access resources and support. We believe that this eviction moratorium is a critical life-saving action.”

Supervisor Dean Preston, who called for similar protections earlier this week, praised Breed and called it an “important step to provide immediate protections for tenants who are unable to pay rent due to this health crisis.”

“I look forward to working with the Mayor and my colleagues on the Board of Supervisors on further efforts to keep people in their homes during this difficult time,” he said.

In previous economic conditions, failure to pay rent or pay rent on time was a small subset of the overall tenant evictions. In fiscal year 2018-2019, there were 1,544 evictions filed with the rent board, of which 83 were for non-payment of rent and 32 for habitual late rent payments.

Breed’s eviction moratorium is part of a growing effort to enact similar protections throughout the state.

On Thursday, state Sen. Scott Wiener issued a statement calling for a state and federal moratorium on foreclosures along with residential and commercial evictions.

“As we move through the COVID-19 emergency, people must be able to focus on our community’s health — slowing the virus’s spread — and not on economic survival,” Wiener said. “Yet more and more California workers and businesses are being forced to choose between protecting public health and paying the mortgage or rent.”
 
Posts: 15146 | Location: Wine Country | Registered: September 20, 2000Reply With QuoteReport This Post
The Unmanned Writer
Picture of LS1 GTO
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Just realized something about CA - the governess closed or restricted capacity of all non-unionized businesses (farmer's markets, diners, bars, etc) but has not imposed state mandated restrictions on unionized businesses (grocery stores are a big one in this state).

I wonder how that was determined....






Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.



"If dogs don't go to Heaven, I want to go where they go" Will Rogers

The definition of the words we used, carry a meaning of their own...



 
Posts: 14220 | Location: It was Lat: 33.xxxx Lon: 44.xxxx now it's CA :( | Registered: March 22, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Domari Nolo
Picture of Chris17404
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Question: Given 2 basically identical healthy middle-aged people, say in the 40's, with identical medical history, does anyone know what causes one person to have severe symptoms and the other to have very mild ones? Is it based on which parts of the body the virus reaches?



 
Posts: 2347 | Location: York, PA | Registered: May 17, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Something wild
is loose
Picture of Doc H.
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by ensigmatic:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc H.:
We - the Royal "we" - seem to be staggering at the starting block with a - rather mild so far - pandemic, but improving.

I was thinking about this earlier this morning. That may be one of the few silver linings in what's going on. Compared to something really nasty getting loose (e.g.: Ebola), SARS-CoV-2/Covid-19 isn't particularly horrible. So perhaps a good, if expensive, exercise.

Question, Doc H: Do we have any current, more-or-less credible, guesstimates on R0? First it was thought to be as high as 6+, then as low as 2+, now I'm seeing some suggestions it may fall more near 4.5.

Seasonal influenza falls right around 1.6. SARS-CoV-2 does seem to be a lot more infectious, but just how much more?


An interesting (unpublished) Yale study early on:

https://www.medrxiv.org/conten...020.02.16.20023770v1

With an R0 of 3.6. And a more interesting conclusion that the pandemic would end in early April.

Same thing from JMV, early:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.co...ll/10.1002/jmv.25723

My educated guess is, based on the one adaptation already seen from SARS-Cov-2, about 4. Which means an earlier estimate from Harvard predicting 70% of the global population exposed by the end of the year is not unlikely.



"And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day"
 
Posts: 2746 | Location: The Shire | Registered: October 22, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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