One hopes it’s because our F35’s are better than those missile systems. There’s also the Israeli pilots vs Iranian air defense guys crewing those SAM sites aspect.

quote:

Originally posted by downtownv:
Hezbollah Names Successor to Nasrallah; Israel Says ‘Not for Long’
Naim Qassem, a founding member of Hezbollah, has been appointed the new leader.

Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah has appointed Naim Qassem as the replacement for its slain chief Hassan Nasrallah, and Israel has already placed a target on his life.

“Temporary appointment. Not for long,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant wrote on X Monday alongside a photo of Qassem. “The countdown has begun.”

Won't live long enough to see his name added to the office directory and new business cards printed up.

Being head of hezbollah is like watching a particularly satisfying version of Whack-a-Mole....

The problem is that there are two opposite opinions being floated.

1)Israel took out the air defenses and now the attack can proceed

2) Israel detected advanced air defenses and could not proceed with the planned attack.

If it is the second, then the entire stealth program is a boondoggle now.

Israel states they are going to retaliate again, so we will see if it is by air or missile.

This was entirely a planned attack; the intent was to leave Iran blind and defenseless. They only had 3 S-300 systems out of four originally. The first was destroyed in April of this year and this attack took out the other 3. In addition, multiple radar stations were destroyed that helped to guide ballistic missiles to their targets in Israel. They are letting the regime know that they own that shithole and can attack targets with impunity. Iran is playing chess while Israel is moving into checkmate.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/...ssentially-naked.amp

quote:

Originally posted by oldbill123:
The problem is that there are two opposite opinions being floated.

1)Israel took out the air defenses and now the attack can proceed

2) Israel detected advanced air defenses and could not proceed with the planned attack.

If it is the second, then the entire stealth program is a boondoggle now.

Israel states they are going to retaliate again, so we will see if it is by air or missile.

Reason one Yes; with all of Iran's S300's knocked-out, Israel can now unleash what they want, when they want. This doesn't completely eliminate the anti-air threat but, it greatly reduces Iran's ability to detect and track inbound threats. Keep in mind in 1999 the F-117 that was shot down over Yugoslavia was knocked-out by a 40+ year old SA-3/S125 system. Obviously some operational errors and a large dose of luck played a role in the downing of the stealth fighter, the point being there is a threat but, that threat is nothing like it was with the S300 system operating. If anything, they can get their tankers and AEW aircraft closer with a reduced threat.

Israeli Strikes Knocked Out All Of Iran’s S-300 Air Defense Systems: Officials

As for number-2, the war in Ukraine has shown the S300 system to have major gaps in its capability, not to mention the Russian military leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to operational competence. The system has flaws, it's been exploited for well over a few years now and Israel just took that chess piece off the board. A combination of modern stealth technology and electronic warfare is what got them through and allowed them to proceed with their mission. The vast majority of military pundits and online types are unable to articulate this aspect of warfare thus they rely on the odd, if X occurred, then Y happened because of Z reasoning.

To say that the stealth program was/is a boondoggle is nonsense, and has been demonstrated many times.

There is an old adage: “There was never a horse that couldn’t be rode, and there was never a man who couldn’t be throwed.”

In war, as in countless other serious endeavors, there have been countless examples of failures occurring because of relying on one “infallible” system or method. That’s why as an acquaintance who worked in the aerospace industry put it, they rely on “belt and suspenders” practices: if one fails, the other will keep your pants up.

If taking out even marginally-effective air defense systems increases the safety of attacking aircraft even slightly, then it’s worth the effort. And as mentioned, it also makes it feasible for less sophisticated aircraft to operate safely. No degradation of an enemy’s capabilities is ever a waste.

quote:

Originally posted by sigfreund:
To say that the stealth program was/is a boondoggle is nonsense, and has been demonstrated many times.

This.

It ain't stealth if you scream from the rooftops "we did this and that with xxx platform". Sources and methods people...

My Israeli friends tell me the F35s did their job quite well.

CENTCOM announces: U.S. strategic bombers have arrived in the Middle East

The move comes amid reports that Iran is planning an attack on Israel.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/398522

US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on Saturday that B-52 Stratofortress strategic bombers from Minot Air Force Base's 5th Bomb Wing had arrived in the Middle East.

CENTCOM’s announcement came a day after the Pentagon stated that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin would be sending bomber aircraft, fighter jets and more Navy warships to the Middle East to bolster the US presence in the region.

Pentagon press secretary Pat Ryder said that Austin ordered, in addition to the B-52 Stratofortress bomber aircraft, a squadron of fighter jets, tanker aircraft and Navy destroyers. He said they will begin arriving in the region in coming months, as the USS Abraham Lincoln begins to head home.

The move comes amid reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has instructed the Supreme National Security Council to prepare for an attack on Israel.

According to a report in The New York Times this past Thursday, Khamenei decided to attack after he reviewed a detailed report from senior military commanders on the extent of damage to Iran’s missile production capabilities and air defense systems around Tehran, critical energy infrastructure, and a main port in the south.

On Wednesday, a high-ranking source told CNN that Iran will attack Israel again soon, likely before the US presidential election next Tuesday.

According to the source, Iran's retaliation for Israel's air strikes on its military targets last week will be significant.

An Israeli military source told CNN on Thursday that Israel is at a “high level of readiness” for a response from Iran.

The source added, however, that they are “still assessing the decision-making process in Iran” to determine if and when a retaliation will take place.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke on Thursday with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and “reaffirmed that the United States remains fully prepared to defend US personnel, Israel, and partners across the region against threats from Iran and Iran-backed proxy groups,” said the Pentagon.

Meanwhile:

Biden administration: Israel has 11 days to implement our demands, or we'll suspend aid

Biden administration gives Israel until November 13 to implement its demands to improve humanitarian situation in Gaza - or military aid will be suspended. The humanitarian aid enables Hamas to continue its terror operations.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/398501

The Biden administration is putting maximum pressure on Israel, threatening to suspend military aid if Israel does not fully implement its demands before November 13, Axios reported.

Biden has thus far avoided suspending military aid, but the move is "gaining more support inside the State Department," the site reported, quoting a US official.

The threat follows an October 13 letter sent by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to their Israeli counterparts, warning that if the humanitarian situation in Gaza did not significantly improve within 30 days, it would affect the weapons the US supplies to Israel.

Over half of all humanitarian aid to enter Gaza is taken over by the Hamas terror group, and used to fund its continued terror operations. According to officials, the increased humanitarian aid taken over to Hamas is significantly extending the war in Gaza.

In a Thursday press conference with Austin, Blinken said, "Both of us and our teams are tracking very carefully Israel's responsibilities to meet the letter of the law ... with regard to the provision of humanitarian assistance." They emphasized that although Israel has made progress, more needs to be done.

Meanwhile, Israeli and US officials said that Israel's Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer has been tasked with drafting the response to the letter from Blinken and Austin, but that the letter is expected to be finalized and sent only after the US elections next week. Its contents are likely to be influenced by the results of the elections.

On Friday, the State Department stated: "Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke today with the Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer. The Secretary and Minister discussed necessary steps for regional de-escalation. The Secretary emphasized the importance of ending the war in Gaza and bringing all of the hostages home, as well as charting a path forward in the post-conflict period that provides governance, security, and reconstruction. He discussed the dire status of humanitarian conditions in Gaza, reviewed steps that have been taken to improve the situation, and urged further actions to surge aid to civilians. The Secretary and Minister discussed ongoing efforts to reach a diplomatic resolution in Lebanon that allows both Lebanese and Israeli civilians to return safely to their homes. The Secretary reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s security against threats from Iran and Iran-backed proxy groups."

Among the US demands is that 350 aid trucks enter Gaza each day by November 13.

Already in September, Channel 12 News - a left-wing media outlet - reported that Hamas has profited by at least a half billion dollars from humanitarian aid entering Gaza. The terror group takes control over the aid, hides it in warehouses, and later sells it to the Gazan population, earning a lot of money from it, which is then invested in recruiting new terrorists and paying salaries to existing terrorists.

The channel's Almog Boker noted that approximately 200 aid trucks already enter Gaza each day, something which has "actually become the main oxygen pipeline for the terrorist organization."

NOTAM issued for Sunday 6 PM Eastern


https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-813352

Well it would be a damn shame if Isreal had to react to an attack by destroying Iran's nuclear facilities, or at least the entrances to them.

The Iranian nuclear question is very likely coming to a head. From their perspective, they're probably being pushed into a decision by the escalating exchanges with Israel; an advisor to Khamenei hinted as much yesterday.

quote:

Khamenei aide warns Iran may review nuclear doctrine if facing ‘existential threat’

Kamal Kharrazi asserts Islamic Republic ‘ready for war but we don’t want to escalate,’ also says Tehran likely to increase range of its ballistic missiles

By ToI Staff and Agencies

2 November 2024, 4:46 am

Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Friday that the Islamic Republic may review its nuclear doctrine if Tehran is exposed to an “existential threat.”

“We now have the technical capabilities necessary to produce nuclear weapons… Only the supreme leader’s fatwa currently prohibits it,” Kharrazi told Hezbollah-linked broadcaster Al-Mayadeen.

“If the survival of Iran comes under serious threat, we reserve the right to reconsider,” the Tehran Times quoted him saying.

Khamenei banned the development of nuclear weapons in a fatwa in the early 2000s, reiterating his stance in 2019 by saying: “Building and stockpiling nuclear bombs is wrong and using it is haram [religiously forbidden]… Although we have nuclear technology, Iran has firmly avoided it.”

Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened to upend the country’s nuclear doctrine in recent years.

Kharrazi reiterated that Iran would respond to Israel’s retaliatory attack last weekend at the appropriate time and manner, adding that Tehran was also likely to increase the range of its ballistic missiles.

“We are ready for war, but we do not want to escalate because we have currently proven our ability to deter from doing so,” he said, according to a translation of the interview from The Telegraph.

“The matter is up to the Israelis; if they really want to continue, we will respond to them. Our missile capabilities are clear to everyone and everyone believes in them, and we have proven that during our operations.”

[...]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/...-existential-threat/

It may be bluster, but the thing is, since the JCPOA deal failed in 2018, their program has been largely unsupervised. The International Atomic Energy Agency estimated last year that Iran had increased its uranium stockpile 22 times over the limit agreed under the deal in 2015, and stated that they found some enriched to 84 percent, which is weapons grade. Iran called that an "unintended fluctuation", but has openly enriched to 60 percent since 2021, an important step towards the 80-90 needed for nuclear weapons.

Of course they have been predicted to be only a year away from the bomb for 20 years, but for threat assessment based on open information, we better assume they have the technical means in place. If they actually have, and can make it work in the short term, a possible move would be a demonstrative nuclear test around the inauguration date for the next US president as a warning to him/her. With Israel clearly having its sights on their program, it might be a "use or lose" situation for them, the only way to re-establish deterrence after their unconvincing missile attacks. Or alternately, they might get a big buddy to do deterrence for them.

quote:

Russia says ‘comprehensive’ treaty with Iran will include defense cooperation

FM Lavrov says pact with Tehran to be signed in ‘near future’; ties seen as major threat by US and Israel as Middle East, Ukraine wars escalate

By Reuters and ToI Staff

31 October 2024, 5:24 pm

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday that Russia and Iran intend to sign a “comprehensive” treaty, which will include closer defense cooperation.

“The treaty on a comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and Iran that is being prepared will become a serious factor in strengthening Russian-Iranian relations,” Lavrov told state television.

He said the agreement was being prepared for signing “in the near future.” Russia has said it expects Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian to visit Moscow before the end of the year.

“It will confirm the parties’ desire for closer cooperation in the field of defense and interaction in the interests of peace and security at the regional and global levels,” Lavrov said. He did not specify what form the defense ties would take.

Deepening ties between the two authoritarian powers is seen as a threat to Israel, which has been fighting a war against Iranian-backed terror groups Hamas and Hezbollah for over a year.

Israel and Iran have also engaged in direct hostilities, including ballistic missiles fired by Tehran on Israel and Israeli airstrikes on military sites in Iran in retaliation.

Closer cooperation between Iran and Russia is also seen by the West as a serious threat to progress in the war in Ukraine, which is entering its third winter of intense fighting.

The United States accused Tehran in September of delivering close-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine, and imposed sanctions on ships and companies it said were involved in delivering Iranian weapons.

[...]

President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a similarly titled “comprehensive” treaty in June, including a mutual defense clause, and the US and NATO say Pyongyang has sent some 10,000 soldiers to Russia for possible deployment in the war.

Russia has not denied their presence, and says it will implement the treaty as it sees fit.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/...defense-cooperation/

Let's just remind ourselves of the way that women are treated in the 'paradise' that is modern-day Iran - this is a quote from - https://www.aol.co.uk/news/ira...ipped-084403387.html

'A growing number of women are defying the strict hijab laws in the country by discarding their veils since the brutal 2022 death of Mahsa Amini.

Twenty-two-year-old Amini died after being detained by the morality police for not wearing her hijab correctly. Her death became a breaking point, sparking unprecedented protests known as “Women, life, freedom”, which lasted for three months in the country.

A monthslong security crackdown that followed killed more than 500 people and saw over 22,000 detained.'

So, 500 DEAD and over 22,000 'detained' over the wearing, or not, of a headscarf. It's of real concern what they might do over something somewhat more serious, like having the almighty shite bombed out of them.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
Well it would be a damn shame if Isreal had to react to an attack by destroying Iran's nuclear facilities, or at least the entrances to them.

I have read that since Iran uses centrifuges to enrich their uranium, and not a nuclear reactor like in Iraq under Saddam, that it's easily replaceable since centrifuges are cheap to replace and the know-how is already in Iran.

I think the only real solution to stop a nuclear armed Iran is a regime change.

Iranians have shown that they thirst for something other than the regime they currently suffer under. And from what I’ve seen here and there, they (the people, not the zealots) do not consider themselves the enemy of Israel. That is the religious extremists talking. The big question is do the Iranian people have the wherewithal to take their country back by force? Simply protesting won’t cut it.

The same thing may someday have to happen in the US. Americans may be divided along party lines, but I can’t believe the majority of democrats want the communistic poison the leftists are trying to impose.

I think I had read months ago that Gallant was going behind Netanyahu's back making deals with Biden and Harris.


Netanyahu fires Gallant as Defense Minister

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/398672

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Tuesday evening.

Netanyahu explained that this is the result of a crisis of trust and significant differences between the two in the management of the war. "My highest commitment as Prime Minister of Israel is to maintain Israel's security and bring us to a complete victory," Netanyahu said in a statement after the dismissal announcement.

He added, "In the midst of a war, more than ever, full trust is required between the Prime Minister and the Minister of Defense. Unfortunately, although in the first months of the campaign there was such trust and there was very fruitful work, during the last few months this trust has cracked between me and the Minister of Defense."

"Significant gaps were discovered between myself and Gallant in the management of the campaign, and these gaps were accompanied by statements and actions that contradicted the decisions of the government and the cabinet. I made many attempts to bridge these gaps, but they kept getting wider. They also came to the public's attention in an unacceptable way, and worse than that, they came to the knowledge of the enemy - our enemies took pleasure in this and derived a lot of benefit from it," he said.

Netanyahu stated that he is in favor of differences of opinion and debate, "But the crisis of trust that gradually opened up between myself and the Minister of Defense has become public, and this crisis does not allow for the proper continuation of the management of the campaign. I'm not the only one who says this, most of the members of the government and most of the members of the cabinet, almost all of them share this feeling that this cannot continue."

"In light of this," he said, "I decided today to end the term of office of the Minister of Defense. In his place, I have decided to appoint Minister Israel Katz. Israel Katz has already proven his abilities and his contribution to national security as Minister of Foreign Affairs, as Minister of Finance, and as Minister of Intelligence for five years, and no less important than that, as a member of the political and security cabinet for many years."

He noted that he is inviting former Minister Gideon Sa'ar to join the government and assume the position of Foreign Minister from Minister Katz. "In addition, I spoke today with Minister Gideon Sa'ar and suggested that he join the coalition with his faction and fill the position of Minister of Foreign Affairs. As a member of the government and cabinet for many years, Gideon Sa'ar brings with him extensive experience and expertise in the fields of policy and security, and he will be a significant reinforcement for our leadership team."

Gallant stated in response, “The security of the State of Israel always was, and will always remain my life’s mission."

"We Have Become The Gaza Of Europe!" Wilders Slams Horrific Night Of Violence Against Jews In Amsterdam

https://www.zerohedge.com/geop...iolence-against-jews

The leader of the Netherlands’ largest political party has described the country as “the Gaza of Europe” after a wave of violence broke out in Amsterdam in the early hours of Friday morning, targeting Jews.

Harrowing video footage from the scene shows Jewish individuals being beaten, thrown into canals, and even run over by mobs of Muslim men. In one instance, an attacker can be heard shouting, “That’s for Palestine, motherfucker,” while repeatedly kicking a motionless man. Some Jewish visitors sought refuge in nearby buildings as crowds attempted to force their way inside, according to reports from The Jerusalem Post.



Those targeted were in the first instance appeared to have been Israeli football fans in town for the Europa League match between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Ajax, however, other footage from the night shows Muslim mobs walking around the Dutch capital interrogating passers-by, demanding they tell them were they are from.

The attacks, which have drawn widespread condemnation, were described by Dutch politician Geert Wilders as an “Amsterdam Pogrom,” prompting calls for urgent government action.

Wilders, leader of the Dutch Party for Freedom (PVV), responded forcefully on social media. “We have become the Gaza of Europe,” he declared, condemning the failure of Amsterdam’s authorities to prevent what he described as a “Jew hunt” and calling for the immediate resignation of Amsterdam’s mayor.

Wilders criticized the lack of police protection and demanded accountability from city officials, warning that he would not tolerate such violence under any circumstances.

“Condemning the hunt for Jews in Amsterdam is not enough. The perpetrators must leave the country,” Wilders wrote on X.

“I have been warning for over 20 years about the growing hatred of Jews in the Netherlands due to the continued mass immigration and Islamization of our country. I want an emergency debate with Minister-President Dick Schoof,” he added.

Israeli officials were also alarmed by the violence and the response from Dutch authorities. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett urged anyone who could act “to save lives by any means,” while Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar confirmed that Israel’s embassy was coordinating with Dutch officials and had set up emergency hotlines for those at risk. Two emergency planes from Tel Aviv were prepared to aid in evacuating those in danger, but the mission was ultimately canceled.

In a statement, the Israeli Ministry of Diaspora Affairs expressed deep concern over the lack of action from Dutch authorities. According to the ministry’s deputy director general, Israeli officials had warned Dutch security agencies of a planned attack against Jewish fans, sharing concrete intelligence at 7 p.m. the night before the violence erupted. Despite the information, the Israeli ministry claimed that the Dutch authorities failed to mobilize adequate protection.

More at link


First flight with Israelis evacuated from Amsterdam lands in Tel Aviv

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/


Netanyahu personally managing Amsterdam developments

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/398855

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, today (Friday, 8 November 2024), went to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Situation Room where he was updated and briefed – by MFA Director General Yaakov Blitshtein, Head of the Diplomatic Desk Aliza Bin-Nun, MFA Deputy Director General for Coordination Dana Benvenisti, and MFA Deputy Director General for Consular Affairs, Eliyahu Yifrach – on what is being done, on locating those who have not been in contact, and on the effort to bring the Israelis back to Israel.

The Prime Minister also spoke with Israeli Ambassador to the Netherlands, Modi Efraim and was updated from the field regarding the contacts with the Dutch government, and with civil authorities regarding the Israelis who have not been in contact and the fight against Islamic terrorism.

Prime Minister Netanyahu said in the situation room:

"Tomorrow, 86 years ago, was Kristallnacht, when Jews on European soil were attacked for being Jews. This has now recurred. This was marked yesterday in the streets of Amsterdam. This is what happened. There is only one difference: The State of the Jews has arisen. We need to deal with it."

"First of all, this puts us and them, the free countries and the Netherlands, in danger. This endangers not only us but also them. But first of all we need to deal with the danger to us. We cannot accept this."

The Prime Minister thanked the employees of the MFA, and the officers of Home Front Command and the police who have been working in the MFA Situation Room and dealing with this event since last night.


Amsterdam pogrom: Only ten out of 62 suspects still in custody

Amsterdam Chief Public Prosecutor says that of the 62 suspects arrested after the violent attacks on Israelis in the city, only 10 are still in custody. The suspects are in custody for 'public violence against individuals and groups.'

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/398853


‘They came in masses,’ ‘attacked us all’: Maccabi Tel Aviv fans describe Amsterdam horrors

https://www.timesofisrael.com/...e-amsterdam-horrors/

Eyewitnesses and victims say organized gangs targeted all Israelis, had clubs, knives; describe local police not responding and taxi drivers taking part in widespread assault

IDF Finds Ammunition in ‘Humanitarian’ Aid Shipment in Gaza

In a statement, the IDF said:

Yesterday (Sunday), during the passage of a convoy coordinated with the international community and monitored by the IDF, unusual movement was detected. The convoy was stopped for a security check at a checkpoint along the Humanitarian Route between northern and southern Gaza. During the inspection, IDF troops discovered a bag containing ammunition for firearms.

IDF troops apprehended those involved, including members of the convoy, who were then transferred to security forces for further investigation. Inquiries were also made with the relevant organization.

It is important to note that this was an internal convoy traveling inside the Gaza Strip from the north to the south, and not through the crossings designated for bringing humanitarian aid into Gaza.

The Biden-Harris administration has threatened an arms embargo on Israel if it does not improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza by Nov. 13. Israel says that large quantities of aid are shipped into Gaza, but some of it is stolen or abandoned. In addition, it needs to screen aid for materials — such as ammunition — that can be used by terrorists.

https://www.breitbart.com/midd...tm_campaign=20241111

Turkish President Erdogan announces severance of diplomatic and trade relations with Israel

"Turkey will stand with the Palestinians until the end"

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news...elations-with-israel

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared the severance of diplomatic and trade relations with Israel.

In a statement reported by the Turkish Arabic-language channel Anadolu, Erdogan emphasized, "Turkey will stand with the Palestinians until the end."

Erdogan's announcement comes amid escalating tensions in the region, as he warned that Israel's actions are becoming increasingly aggressive.

"Israel will become more aggressive as long as weapons and ammunition continue to flow," he stated, expressing concern over the deteriorating situation in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon.