quote:

Originally posted by YooperSigs:
My speculation:
Eventually China will invade Taiwan. The current balloon flight (and there have been others, reportedly) is being used to gather information to see if balloon carried EMP or biological weapons could be used to hinder our response to the Taiwan invasion.

I think the lesson of Ukraine is showing China that an invasion is a bad idea. Even if they won, Taiwan would be destroyed and all the prize chip fabs China wants would be useless.

The long game is to displace the US as #1 economy and replace the $ with the RMB. If they do that and help force the US into recession and depression, then Taiwan might rejoin reluctantly, but without a fight.

And hopefully the proverbial wall will come tumbling down before then. People in prc need to wake the fuck up and revolt against the tyranny. Perhaps a spark in HK someday will be the trigger.

quote:

Originally posted by kimber1911:
Seems to me that these are likely meteorological surveillance balloons.

...

If it's a weather balloon why did the Chinese deny it was theirs at first? Why not just come out and say oops, our balloon got away from us. Sorry 'bout that?

IF these are meteorological surveillance balloons they have an amazing propensity to stray near military bases. Per sources linked in this thread, this balloon or others similar to it with similar payloads, have been spotted over Hawaii (missile launch site), Guam (air base), The Philippines (military island sites), Japan (military bases), and now Montana and Missouri military bases. In some cases these balloon spottings were reported over the last few years.

There are also reportings of balloons in similar size and payload configuration being reported in India and now over South America.

The Biden regime obviously has no regard for US border sovereignty, and apparently they are now applying that same disregard for US air space sovereignty.

quote:

Originally posted by Ronin1069:
Reading LOTS of speculation online that Biden Administration knew about and have been tracking the balloon for days; that they chose not report it to prevent any controversies about the upcoming China trip and perhaps having to cancel or delay. Their hand was forced when reports of the sightings began hitting the internet. I don’t have any trouble believing this scenario; I just wish the government would stop acting like ‘we’ are morons.

According to sources linked to in this thread the Canadians first reported detecting the balloon on 1-29-23. A couple days later they scrambled CF-18s for a fly-by on the balloon.

There are some posts on social media by Canadians that seem to express similar concern that the Canadian military allowed the balloon to continue its overflight of Canadian airspace.

Canada is part of NORAD and it's likely that information about the balloon was shared with their US counterparts, so it seems both the Canadian and the US governments decided to keep the balloon airspace incursion quiet.

As to what should be done about the balloon, how many members here remember a newly inaugurated President George W. Bush's first real foreign affairs crisis with the Hainan island incident, in which a US P-3 electronic signal surveillance plane flying over International Waters, was involved in a mid-air collision with a Chinese fighter jet that was flying aggressively and "thumped" it. The Chinese J-8 fighter pilot was killed in the collision and the P-3 was so badly damaged that the crew was preparing for a bail out when the pilot managed to gain partial control of it and was forced to make an emergency landing at the Chinese air base on the island without authorization (despite multiple requests for emergency clearance).

The P-3 crew did their best to destroy sensitive equipment and intelligence before being detained, but they weren't able to destroy it all and some very sensitive information and codes fell into the Chinese hands, and they learned a lot about exactly what our capabilities were.

The crew was detained, separated, and interrogated multiple times at all hours of the night and weren't released until the infamous public Statement of 2 Sorries was issued to the Chinese.

I'm in favor of trying to down and capture this balloon to see what kind of payload it contains and what its capabilities are. But whether it's a weather balloon or a spy balloon, there is no way it should be allowed to cross US airspace.

If we down the balloon and it turns out to be a weather balloon we can always warn the Chinese about requesting permission before entering US airspace and buy them a new one. But, if the balloon is determined to be a spy balloon then I say we should call them out and shame them with proof for all the world to see. Put the Chinese on the defensive.

It's worth noting that it's been reported that the Chinese are looking to buy land near the Minute Man III missile base in Montana, the very area the balloon over flew.

quote:

Originally posted by 92fstech:
Since it's over the ocean now can we finally shoot it down?

Yes, but it would be difficult. The balloon would have to be downed within 12 miles of the US shore. After that it crosses into International Waters and it would be a violation of international law to down it once there.

Someone has a live feed tracking it on Rumble, via Fox News I think. It's on the way to Myrtle Beach. Which means it probably scanned Fort Bragg, Seymour Johnson, and Camp Lejeune for local weather conditions.

quote:

Originally posted by Modern Day Savage:


Yes, but it would be difficult. The balloon would have to be downed within 12 miles of the US shore. After that it crosses into International Waters and it would be a violation of international law to down it once there.

Oh please. Just shoot the damn thing down. This is pathetic. Violation of international law. Ha! What a joke.

And their excuse about being worried about the safety of people on the ground was clearly bullshit. There was plenty of opportunity to down it over Alaska when the danger to US citizens was practically nil. The real reason it's still flying is once again good old fashioned cowardice.

quote:

Originally posted by Lefty Sig:
It is entirely possible that this is a normal weather balloon that went adrift and because it wasn't a threat the U.S. did nothing but track it. Shooting it down would create an "incident", so the military said, let it go.

Then, why did representatives of the US military come out and say that it was a spy balloon? You're claiming that the military is covering for old Joe by making a false claim which would anger the Chinese government.

quote:

Once people saw it, they decided to make up a "spy balloon" story TO DIVERT ATTENTION from Hunter's admission that the laptop is real, the fact the Joe is nearly broke and took a $250K equity line on his home because there is no more 10% going up to the "big guy". And because Republicans in the House will investigate Joe's China ties and potentially expose the endemic Biden family corruption.

It's impossible to count the number of times this "distraction" argument as been put forth in this forum. Almost always, these are nothing but pure speculation. What you're suggesting is ludicrous. I understand being skeptical of anything coming out of the Biden administration, but not only is there not a shred of evidence to validate your claim, this affair has painted the Biden administrationi]and[/i] the US military leaders in a bad light. On top of that, the stories about the Hunter Biden laptop are not going away, not even with fifty balloons.

quote:

Yes, but it would be difficult. The balloon would have to be downed within 12 miles of the US shore. After that it crosses into International Waters and it would be a violation of international law to down it once there.

Mkay, good thing its very presence over the US... nevermind...

“A balloon with this kind of sensor package has 22x the fidelity of a satellite in space. They have flown over two of our three positions of the triad.” Keith Kellogg, US Army, General (RET)

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by Modern Day Savage:


Yes, but it would be difficult. The balloon would have to be downed within 12 miles of the US shore. After that it crosses into International Waters and it would be a violation of international law to down it once there.

Oh please. Just shoot the damn thing down. This is pathetic. Violation of international law. Ha! What a joke.

And their excuse about being worried about the safety of people on the ground was clearly bullshit. There was plenty of opportunity to down it over Alaska when the danger to US citizens was practically nil. The real reason it's still flying is once again good old fashioned cowardice.

quote:

Originally posted by stoic-one:

Mkay, good thing its very presence over the US... nevermind... Roll Eyes

That's not my argument, but others are making it, and using it for justification not to take action.

If the decision to down the balloon off shore had been made in a timely fashion, the Biden regime could pre-position US assets to intercept it. It remains to be seen whether they will do this, but I'm betting they won't take action. From the surrender of Afghanistan to the Iran deal, Russia's war on Ukraine, to China, the Biden regime has been behind the power curve on intelligence and decision making, so I expect them to bungle this decision as well. They are too busy trying to decide foreign policy based on their political agenda and maintaining control of power, instead of making policy in the best interests of national security.

Weather balloon or spy balloon, if the decision were up to me, I would have downed the balloon soon after it entered US airspace. But, if we expect China to abide by international law in the South China Sea, we better damn well set a precedent by abiding by it in our own US waters.

quote:

Originally posted by Modern Day Savage:
IF these are meteorological surveillance balloons they have an amazing propensity to stray near military bases. Per sources linked in this thread, this balloon or others similar to it with similar payloads, have been spotted over Hawaii (missile launch site), Guam (air base), The Philippines (military island sites), Japan (military bases), and now Montana and Missouri military bases. In some cases these balloon spottings were reported over the last few years.

We have so many military installations scarrered all over, a balloon could fly anywhere and be over one of them.

flashguy

Is our military saying plainly that they do not have the capability of shooting this thing down and collecting the debris within our 12 mile waters? Hard to believe.

If another one appears shoot the SOB down the instant it enters our territorial waters. The next ones may have EMP devices.

quote:

But, if we expect China to abide by international law in the South China Sea, we better damn well set a precedent by abiding by it in our own US waters.

F'real? Honestly haven't seen any evidence the CCP gives a crap about international law, or pretty much anything resembling respecting human rights in general. Have I missed all of their shining examples of being good world citizens?

quote:

Originally posted by flashguy:

quote:

Originally posted by Modern Day Savage:
IF these are meteorological surveillance balloons they have an amazing propensity to stray near military bases. Per sources linked in this thread, this balloon or others similar to it with similar payloads, have been spotted over Hawaii (missile launch site), Guam (air base), The Philippines (military island sites), Japan (military bases), and now Montana and Missouri military bases. In some cases these balloon spottings were reported over the last few years.

We have so many military installations scarrered all over, a balloon could fly anywhere and be over one of them.

flashguy

While we do have US bases scattered around the world, just how many supposedly stray weather balloons are there? I'll grant that it's certainly possible for one or two actual legitimate meteorological balloons to stray into unauthorized military air space... but if the location reports I listed are accurate, you are willing to casually dismiss each and every incursion in military air space as accidental?

Consider the other evidence already being discussed in this thread and analyze it through the lens of the number of incursions.

Once, maybe an accident. Twice, maybe coincidence. Three or more times, I'm calling it enemy action.

https://www.breitbart.com/poli...enter-united-states/

Pentagon report:

the Pentagon is aware of Chinese claims the balloon was a weather balloon that veered off course, but said, “We are aware of the [People’s Republic of China] statement. However, the fact is, we know that it’s a surveillance balloon and I’m not going to be able to be more specific than that.”

the balloon was assessed to be at about 60,000 feet

the balloon had changed course and that it had “the ability to maneuver.”

quote:

Originally posted by Modern Day Savage:

But, if we expect China to abide by international law in the South China Sea, we better damn well set a precedent by abiding by it in our own US waters.

Oh, so you want to let it “accidentally” wander right on back to China where they will collect all the data it gathered about our capabilities while it “accidentally” flew RIGHT OVER the three main ICBM bases in the center of the US?

Are you kidding me?

quote:

Originally posted by stoic-one:

quote:

But, if we expect China to abide by international law in the South China Sea, we better damn well set a precedent by abiding by it in our own US waters.

F'real? Honestly haven't seen any evidence the CCP gives a crap about international law, or pretty much anything resembling respecting human rights in general. Have I missed all of their shining examples of being good world citizens?

Yeah, f'real.

Once the US violates this law off our own shores we can't very well conduct or justify Freedom of Navigation exercises in the South China Sea. We discontinue those exercises and we cede domination of the region to the Chinese.

No doubt, there are several examples of China violating international law, but not every single one of the laws. Whether they want to or not, they do abide by many international laws, and you can't just chuck laws out because another party sometimes fails to follow them. That's what diplomacy is for. Unfortunately, like past administrations, the Biden regime sucks at diplomacy.

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:

quote:

Originally posted by Modern Day Savage:

But, if we expect China to abide by international law in the South China Sea, we better damn well set a precedent by abiding by it in our own US waters.

Oh, so you want to let it “accidentally” wander right on back to China where they will collect all the data it gathered about our capabilities while it “accidentally” flew RIGHT OVER the three main ICBM bases in the center of the US?

Are you kidding me?

Man, do you even bother to read?

First of all, it's possible this balloon may be capable of transmitting any data it has recorded, and the Chinese may already have it.

Secondly, I've already mentioned numerous times that if the decision were up to me, I would've downed the balloon shortly after it entered US airspace.

There were numerous opportunities for the Trudeau and Biden regimes to take action while the balloon was in Canadian and US airspace. I'm simply pointing out that the time to take action was before the balloon crossed into International Waters.

What the fuck is wrong with you?

Boom!