The similarities are different.

At the beginning of the 1950’s, the market for publicly traded stocks was very poor. The recovery from the Depression of the ‘30’s had been interrupted by WWII, stocks had a very poor reputation in the public mind as very risky, unsavory, gambling. The laws, and info systems to get material information and news was archaic and inefficient. Auditing was not as sophisticated as it has become, accounting schemes were a bigger risk.

As a result, prices measured by ordinary standards were very, very low in many cases. According to Ben Graham, there were a great many issues available for less than their net net value, current assets less all debt. In some cases, you could buy a share of stock for not much more than the per share cash, and get the rest of the company assets for free.

Fewer investors, relatively, were active in the market. The mutual fund industry was in it’s infancy, pension funds were not common and those invested in bonds to a very great extent.

It was, by later standards a very inefficient market. Even by the end of that “bull run” conditions were nothing like they have become. We have, by comparison, an efficient market, marked by large numbers of buyers and sellers, much more experienced and knowledgeable, information much more reliable and mire widely circulated, almost instantly. There are different rules now, circuit breakers, short selling and trading products unknown to Ben Graham.

Dow at an all-time high today--- 23,950-ish before backing off.

24K here we come.

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So, for all the experts, when will it slow down? I have a large portion coming in the next few years to invest. I would hat to throw it in only to have it come crashing down.

We put $50,000 in a 529. It crashed and went to $26,000. We left it in and it is now at $80,000. Had I put it in a year later, it would be about $150,000.

Mrs. Mike told me last night that our 401's and IRA's are doing very very well.

I don't profess to know anything about my retirement money, but she told me that I made over 3K in the last quarter. When she compared it to the last quarter I had it in the State's Retirement plan it barely made $100.00

And since I had to medically retire, and have only been getting in about 1/2 of my prior income, I've been stressing about money. Once she told me that things were going swimmingly, I'm not worried anymore. I know now moving the money out of the State's retirement system, with she and I dealing with it personally, is the best decision I made.

Thanks Trump!! MAGA

My 401k did 17.61% last year. I'm hoping the Trump effect continues.

quote:

Originally posted by smithnsig:
So, for all the experts, when will it slow down? I have a large portion coming in the next few years to invest. I would hat to throw it in only to have it come crashing down.

We put $50,000 in a 529. It crashed and went to $26,000. We left it in and it is now at $80,000. Had I put it in a year later, it would be about $150,000.

Timing is everything for market timers. Trouble is, you only know who is right after the fact, and few are dependably right.

Top pickers and bottom pickers become cotton pickers.

Warren Buffett thinks that if you can’t bear to see your stocks at 50% of their value, you probably should not be investing in stocks.

Have you ever seriously studied what causes market swings up and down?

I've done so well & now have so much in the market, I'm scared to death. I've been long term 60/40 since 1985.

My Roth IRA and rollover IRA went form +12.75% this last Oct. to +17.53% today.

These are both managed by Fidelity, and are more into the conserve mode, because I am now retired.

I withdraw a fixed amount every month, total of a few percent each year. Yesterday I spoke with my "financial advisor" and told him to sell enough to take a years worth of payouts and put them in the MM account rather than selecting stuff to sell every quarter or so to fund the withdrawal.

We'll see how it works out.

Oh ya, I think I was at about a 15% return last year. Not nearly as much as others I've read about, but I was still VERY happy.

You answered your own question. Unless you need the money within a few years, just put it in and let it ride. You may have some negative years, but it's always come back. The only issue is if you'll need the money when it's down.

quote:

Originally posted by smithnsig:
So, for all the experts, when will it slow down? I have a large portion coming in the next few years to invest. I would hat to throw it in only to have it come crashing down.

We put $50,000 in a 529. It crashed and went to $26,000. We left it in and it is now at $80,000. Had I put it in a year later, it would be about $150,000.

quote:

Originally posted by Warhorse:
... and are more into the conserve mode, because I am now retired.

smart man


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quote:

How well are your retirement accounts performing?

They are doing delightfully. As, I would hope at a time of serial record-setting, are most everyone else's.

If you've been rational about allocation - keeping liquid whatever fraction of your assets you'll need in the near term and set up with an emergency fund - then the fact that records are being set is just transitory noise. No cause for alarm or greed - just Mr. Market doing his thing.

There are a bunch of long-term positives for the US economy, and some near-term risks. Baby boomer retiree demographics may shift some demand from stocks to bonds/CDs as they continue to age. In other words, same stuff, different decade - refer to the long term returns numbers which show relative returns of stocks>bonds>cash.

I think that's old strategy. With interest rates so low, and the market so high, and climbing, I think people will fund their retirements by small scale selling, rather than swapping into debt instruments that pay nearly nothing.

quote:

Originally posted by joel9507:

There are a bunch of long-term positives for the US economy, and some near-term risks. Baby boomer retiree demographics may shift some demand from stocks to bonds/CDs as they continue to age. In other words, same stuff, different decade - refer to the long term returns numbers which show relative returns of stocks>bonds>cash.

14% and not complaining.

Last year total portfolio rose 17.6% but 5 months of that a majority of our funds were under professional management and it continues to be that way. My wife's funds which we kept from the money manager rose 25.5%.

But I keep reminding myself that we hired the money management firm not to maximize returns but we're paying them to avoid the worst of the next bear market. It remains to be seen whether we made the right choice.

quote:

Originally posted by Rey HRH:


But I keep reminding myself that we hired the money management firm not to maximize returns but we're paying them to avoid the worst of the next bear market. It remains to be seen whether we made the right choice.

This is an excellent point, that it is easier to spot stocks to buy, but much trickier to judge risk. In fact, I doubt very many have a very clear idea exactly what the term means, how to assess risk. Some think it is measured by beta, whatever that is.

Very well, hitting new highs regularly.

The last week in particular has been amazing. I know I'm not supposed to peek, but I can't help it.

My accounts are up about $7 million dollars this year.