Sometimes (most times?) I think we should all step away from this topic, or at least this thread. Every time I come in here I just shake my head. This thread seems to have all sides covered though, and everyone is dug in...It's like a repository for the triangulation of propaganda from all competing sides/views/agendas of this conflict. It's SO bad, that those 'dug in' aren't even willing to actually read all the words that are posted, and then jump to conclusions, regarding things not even posted!

It's all here though...There's US propaganda, Russian propaganda, and Ukrainian propaganda, all at absurd levels! Unfortunately, with our current media, and the constant bombardment of propaganda from ALL sides, it seems there's NO way to know with confidence what's 'really' going on in Ukraine anyway. One things for sure; EVERYONE talking about prolonging the war, and NOBODY is talking about promoting peace. As a result, it seems EVERYONE is losing here; the Ukrainian people, the Russian people, and the American people!

Wake me when it's over, or the missiles are flying...

This is directly from the Wikipedia article cited above re: Sevastopol

"After the dissolution of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, the former Soviet Navy came under jurisdiction of United Armed Forces of the Commonwealth of Independent States and later regulated by the separate treaty between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. After a failed attempt to annex Crimea in 1990s, in 1997 the Russian Federation signed the Partition Treaty on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet with Ukraine which allowed the Russian-allocated ships to remain on Ukrainian territory until 2017 sharing the Sevastopol Bay along with ships of Ukrainian Navy. From then on, Russia paid an annual lease to Ukraine for the use of the base until 2014, as regulated by the Partition Treaty on the Black Sea Fleet and the Kharkiv Pact.[3][4] Since the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in 2014, the naval base is again under Russian control.[5]"

So while several now non-existant political empires and entities headed by ethnic Russians have had interests in Crimea for a long time, the current Russian country has roughly as much right to occupation as Germany because Germany occupied it in WW1 and WW2.

Leasing a base does not give a country the right to invade and take over the surrounding land as its own territory.

If Russia believes Crimea really wants to be a part of Russia, then they can withdraw forces and have Crimea have a vote right?

WORLD AT WAR USA Today: “Little by Little” Russia is Winning Key Ground War

Surprising admission deviates from usual narrative.

https://summit.news/2023/02/14...ning-key-ground-war/

USA Today raised some eyebrows when it deviated from the usual narrative by acknowledging “little by little” Russia is winning the ground war in a pivotal area of Ukraine, citing a quote given by a pro-Ukraine spokeswoman.

The admission was in relation to the battle for the city of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

Russia has been fighting fiercely to take back the city since last summer, and now appears to be pouring more manpower into the region to finish the job.

“They have been trying to take the city since July,” Iryna Rybakova, press officer for Ukraine’s 93rd Brigade, told BBC. “Little by little they are winning now. They have more resources, so if they play the long game they will win. I can’t say how long it will take.”

Moscow has established control of both main roads into the city, with only one back route left open, making it increasingly difficult to get supplies to Ukraine troops.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office also admitted that the turf war had become “difficult,” while Donetsk Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko said, “We’re seeing a very tough battle in which the Russians aren’t sparing neither themselves nor us.”

As Chris Menahan notes, the statements contradict legacy media narratives that Russia is running out of weapons and supplies, which has been the dominant mantra since just after the start of the conflict.

“Nonetheless, the US and NATO keep stringing Ukraine along with this BS to encourage them to fight their proxy war with Russia,” writes Menahan.

“The most likely outcome of this war is that Russia will take the Donbas and Ukraine will agree not to join NATO and recognize Crimea as Russian, which is an outcome that could have been achieved 10 months ago (with a tiny fraction of the deaths and the EU/global economy intact) if the US and NATO didn’t bribe the Zelensky regime with over $100 billion to keep the war going in perpetuity.”

For months now, numerous mainstream media outlets have been pushing the narrative that Russia is being routed in many areas of Ukraine and that the war could have entered its final phase.

Much of this appears to be little more than pro-NATO propaganda to boost morale, which paradoxically in the longer term could actually harm morale if Ukrainian forces aren’t prepared to dig in for a prolonged war.

quote:

“The most likely outcome of this war is that Russia will take the Donbas and Ukraine will agree not to join NATO and recognize Crimea as Russian, which is an outcome that could have been achieved 10 months ago (with a tiny fraction of the deaths and the EU/global economy intact) if the US and NATO didn’t bribe the Zelensky regime with over $100 billion to keep the war going in perpetuity.”

Yeah... but for some, war is good business.

Kaput.

Bidens visit to Ukraine brings to mind this question: Does Putin actually mean to conquer Ukraine? If that is the plan, why is Kyiv not a smoldering crater? In any military campaign the capitol city and the president should be a priority target, right? Cut off the head of the snake? Perhaps Putins goal is the annexation of the Donbas and strengthening his Crimea territory.
It just seems odd to me that there has been very little or no military action in Kyiv.

You probably missed the Russian pincer movement on Kiev in the first days of the war, including the air assault on Hostomel Airport 16 miles from the city. Which brought them into the Kiev suburbs on Day 3, nearly encircling the city in early March before they were pushed out of the entire North of Ukraine two months later because they hadn't anticipated any real resistance at all, Western-supplied anti-tank and anti-air weapons wreaked havoc on their troops, and their own logistics got hung up in traffic jams caused by destroyed and broken-down vehicles on roads they couldn't bypass due to mud conditions. Leaving behind the bodies of civilians massacred by frustrated Russian troops in places like Bucha.

https://understandingwar.org/s...eCoTFeb27%2C2022.png

https://www.understandingwar.o...CoTMarch8%2C2022.png

You may also have missed the missile and drone barrages on Kiev and other major Ukrainian cities in the last four months after the Russians were pushed back from Kharkiv in the East and Kherson in the South. Including lots of cheap drones acquired from Iran, because Russia used up most of its tactical missile arsenal in the first two phases of the war.

quote:

Originally posted by YooperSigs:
Bidens visit to Ukraine brings to mind this question: Does Putin actually mean to conquer Ukraine? If that is the plan, why is Kyiv not a smoldering crater? In any military campaign the capitol city and the president should be a priority target, right? Cut off the head of the snake? Perhaps Putins goal is the annexation of the Donbas and strengthening his Crimea territory.
It just seems odd to me that there has been very little or no military action in Kyiv.

That was the plan. The whole thing was supposed to be over in 4 days with Kiev captured, Ukrainian leadership dead or in chains, and a quick occupation of Moldova before NATO can wake up.

The money is to good for all those involved…they’re not dying…yet.

The anniversary of Vlad’s four-day war

“Vladimir Putin addressed thousands of Russians today at a rally celebrating the anniversary of his invasion of Ukraine.

Tens of thousands of Russians enthusiastically waved national flags in Moscow's World Cup stadium and chanted 'Russia' in a patriotic display of support for Russia's war in Ukraine as Putin spoke - or so he hoped it would seem.

In reality, the Russian attendees complained they have been forced to attend the pro-war rally at the Luzhniki stadium, which has a capacity of 81,000,  to celebrate the anniversary of Putin's invasion. …”

DailyMail article:
https://mol.im/a/11780239

At the risk of being the first one to turn this thread into one about Ukraine ( ), an opinion piece from The Wall Street Journal that I personally agree with based on well over 60 years of paying attention to current events and studying history.

===============================

REVIEW & OUTLOOK

America’s Choice in Ukraine

As long as Putin wants war, seeking a peace settlement is a fantasy.

A year of war in Ukraine hasn’t changed Vladimir Putin, and we hope Western politicians preaching “peace” were listening to his speech on Tuesday. The Russian promised nothing but more war and blamed the West for it. His choice in turn means there is only a binary choice for the West: Give Ukraine the weapons to win, or abandon Ukraine and live with the fallout for decades.

It’s worth noting how little Mr. Putin’s ambitions have changed since he rolled over Ukraine’s border last Feb. 24. His humiliating failure to capture Kyiv in the war’s first days didn’t dissuade him from regrouping to attack the country’s east. Russian forces are now launching a fresh offensive and grinding down Ukrainians in Bakhmut.

The Russians have lost some 2,000 tanks, half of the operational fleet, according to estimates, and appear to be hauling old Soviet equipment out of storage. But Mr. Putin has turned to Iran for a steady supply of drones and other military equipment, and now he’s hoping that China will ship him weapons. “Significantly” more than 100,000 Russians are dead or wounded, the Pentagon says, but Mr. Putin is throwing 200,000 more into the fight, even with little training or equipment.

Mr. Putin’s goal is unchanged: Control most or all of Ukraine, and incorporate it into his greater Russian empire. He still thinks he can outlast the Ukrainian government and its West-ern supporters. Many in the U.S. and Europe are ready to head to a negotiating table, but Mr. Putin is not. The only settlement he has in mind is Ukraine’s surrender.

The fastest route to peace then is defeating Mr. Putin, which the Biden Administration still seems reluctant to admit. Mr. Biden hasn’t wavered in his rhetorical support for Ukraine, and his Tuesday Speech in Poland struck the right note that autocrats “cannot be appeased” but “must be opposed.”

Yet his air of triumphalism is premature— Ukraine could still lose—and it is backed by ambivalent action. In the latest example, Mr. Biden is still holding back the Army tactical missile system, long-range weapons that the Ukrainians desperately want so they can strike deeper into Russian positions. The Administration is leaking that the U.S. military doesn’t have any to spare, but allied inventory estimates run in the thousands.

This has been the pattern for a year. The Biden team throws up reasons why a certain weapon—tanks, Patriot missile defenses, Himars— can’t be provided to Ukraine. The system is too complex. The training will take too long. Then these objections suddenly vanish after criticism in public and from Congress, and Ukraine gets the goods. Can we skip ahead and provide F-16 fighter jets now?

Getting Ukraine the weapons they need is increasingly urgent. If Russia receives arms from China, the war will descend into an even bloodier stalemate or a Ukrainian defeat. Political support could fray in European capitals and in Washington, even as Beijing’s involvement raised the global risks of defeat.

To that end, Mr. Biden might speak more directly to the Americans who are increasingly skeptical of the stakes in Ukraine, and ground his case for U.S. support in core national interests, not Wilsonian flights about foreign “sovereignty” and democracy. The stakes in Ukraine aren’t confined to Eastern Europe. Russia, Iran and China are working together—you might even call it an Axis—to dominate as much of the world as they can. If Ukraine is absorbed into a Greater Russian Co-Prosperity Sphere, the world will make accommodations to the autocrats.

The risks of backing Ukraine are real, but the risks of abandoning it are greater. The Ukrainians have put up an audacious fight but, absent more advanced U.S. arms, this story could still end with Mr. Putin a greater menace to Europe, China emboldened, and the United States weaker. That’s not a peace to desire.

LINK

In fact some observers noted how little time of his speech Putin devoted to Ukraine, which is the actual bad sign - not in a "he's gonna start throwing nukes" way, but a "I don't want you to pay too much attention to this little war because it's gonna grind on for years" one.

In the almost two hours, he covered all sorts of issues, mostly domestic, which you would expect from an annual state of the nation address; foreign policy was the smallest part, and of that all he said of Ukraine basically was "it's all going to plan, step by step we're reaching our aims. Oh and BTW, I'm suspending New START". Which is merely acknowledging reality, as both Russia and the US have denied entry for nuclear inspection parties under that treaty since last August, both blaming the other for doing it first.

But I guess it made a convenient "look at me sticking it to the Americans" bit for the domestic audience while making foreign doommongers shake in their boots again. Regarding Ukraine, the whole speech was basically saying "glorious Russia is best country in world under my benevolent leadership, don't mind me while I call up another couple hundred thousand draftees this year ... and next year ... and the one after that ..."

That article is a crock. Complete BS. Sop it up if you wish.

quote:

Originally posted by sigfreund:
At the risk of being the first one to turn this thread into one about Ukraine ( ), an opinion piece from The Wall Street Journal that I personally agree with based on well over 60 years of paying attention to current events and studying history.

===============================

REVIEW & OUTLOOK

America’s Choice in Ukraine

As long as Putin wants war, seeking a peace settlement is a fantasy.

A year of war in Ukraine hasn’t changed Vladimir Putin, and we hope Western politicians preaching “peace” were listening to his speech on Tuesday. The Russian promised nothing but more war and blamed the West for it. His choice in turn means there is only a binary choice for the West: Give Ukraine the weapons to win, or abandon Ukraine and live with the fallout for decades.

It’s worth noting how little Mr. Putin’s ambitions have changed since he rolled over Ukraine’s border last Feb. 24. His humiliating failure to capture Kyiv in the war’s first days didn’t dissuade him from regrouping to attack the country’s east. Russian forces are now launching a fresh offensive and grinding down Ukrainians in Bakhmut.

The Russians have lost some 2,000 tanks, half of the operational fleet, according to estimates, and appear to be hauling old Soviet equipment out of storage. But Mr. Putin has turned to Iran for a steady supply of drones and other military equipment, and now he’s hoping that China will ship him weapons. “Significantly” more than 100,000 Russians are dead or wounded, the Pentagon says, but Mr. Putin is throwing 200,000 more into the fight, even with little training or equipment.

Mr. Putin’s goal is unchanged: Control most or all of Ukraine, and incorporate it into his greater Russian empire. He still thinks he can outlast the Ukrainian government and its West-ern supporters. Many in the U.S. and Europe are ready to head to a negotiating table, but Mr. Putin is not. The only settlement he has in mind is Ukraine’s surrender.

The fastest route to peace then is defeating Mr. Putin, which the Biden Administration still seems reluctant to admit. Mr. Biden hasn’t wavered in his rhetorical support for Ukraine, and his Tuesday Speech in Poland struck the right note that autocrats “cannot be appeased” but “must be opposed.”

Yet his air of triumphalism is premature— Ukraine could still lose—and it is backed by ambivalent action. In the latest example, Mr. Biden is still holding back the Army tactical missile system, long-range weapons that the Ukrainians desperately want so they can strike deeper into Russian positions. The Administration is leaking that the U.S. military doesn’t have any to spare, but allied inventory estimates run in the thousands.

This has been the pattern for a year. The Biden team throws up reasons why a certain weapon—tanks, Patriot missile defenses, Himars— can’t be provided to Ukraine. The system is too complex. The training will take too long. Then these objections suddenly vanish after criticism in public and from Congress, and Ukraine gets the goods. Can we skip ahead and provide F-16 fighter jets now?

Getting Ukraine the weapons they need is increasingly urgent. If Russia receives arms from China, the war will descend into an even bloodier stalemate or a Ukrainian defeat. Political support could fray in European capitals and in Washington, even as Beijing’s involvement raised the global risks of defeat.

To that end, Mr. Biden might speak more directly to the Americans who are increasingly skeptical of the stakes in Ukraine, and ground his case for U.S. support in core national interests, not Wilsonian flights about foreign “sovereignty” and democracy. The stakes in Ukraine aren’t confined to Eastern Europe. Russia, Iran and China are working together—you might even call it an Axis—to dominate as much of the world as they can. If Ukraine is absorbed into a Greater Russian Co-Prosperity Sphere, the world will make accommodations to the autocrats.

The risks of backing Ukraine are real, but the risks of abandoning it are greater. The Ukrainians have put up an audacious fight but, absent more advanced U.S. arms, this story could still end with Mr. Putin a greater menace to Europe, China emboldened, and the United States weaker. That’s not a peace to desire.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u...-china-iran-7d968faa

What a steaming pile of BULLSHIT Propaganda right there! That article could have been written by the K-street office(s) of Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and General Dynamics!

NOBODY wants this war to continue more than the 'West', led by the US and it's elites that have ZERO skin in the game! They're the ONLY one that will benefit...And EVERYONE else loses! The 'West', led by the US has nixed peace negotiations and ANY potential cease-fire/peace deal more than once, including back in March/April 2022! It's not only that everyone wants war, it's that they want to prolong the war for as long as possible! The 'West' has seemingly done everything in it's power, by both it's action and inaction, to provoke, promote and prolong this conflict! And unfortunately, none of this even touches upon all of the corruption by powerful elites in the Ukrainian and US governments, bent on fleecing the US Treasury (and Taxpayers!) for their own benefit!

Ultimately the REAL losers here are the Ukrainian people, the Russian 'people' and the American Taxpayer. And we'll be VERY Lucky if that's the extent of the tragedy of this conflict!

For people supporting this conflict, I'll ask again...Have you got children (or grandchildren) to send over there/feed into the shredder if and when it comes to that? It VERY likely will, so this isn't going to stop unless we stop funding it! Are you willing to sacrifice grandchildren and great grandchildren that will NEVER be born as a result? When it becomes a 'Blood AND Treasure' investment, are you ALL IN for Ukraine?

quote:

What a steaming pile of BULLSHIT Propaganda right there! That article could have been written by the K-street office(s) of Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and General Dynamics!

It probably was...

quote:

Have you got children (or grandchildren) to send over there/feed into the shredder if and when it comes to that? It VERY likely will, so this isn't going to stop unless we stop funding it!

My daughter is ex-Navy and my son-in-law is out as soon as his request to separate from the Navy is approved.
But the Navy, which wanted him out for not taking the clot shot, is now dragging its' feet.

But I'll still have a nephew to feed into the shredder ...

quote:

Originally posted by old rugged cross:
That article is a crock. Complete BS. Sop it up if you wish.

quote:

Originally posted by nharacecraft:
What a steaming pile of BULLSHIT Propaganda right there!

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:
It probably was.

I'll bite. What specifically was untrue about the opinion piece, and what facts (not what you can imagine might happen, but actual, solid verifiable facts) lead you to believe that?

^^Well, you can start with everything in the linked article/'opinion piece' shown in bold in my previous post...

Western politicians preaching “peace”: Who...There aren't any!

Many in the U.S. and Europe are ready to head to a negotiating table: Really...Who? Again, there aren't any!

The fastest route to peace then is defeating Mr. Putin: This claim is just ridiculous! ZERO evidence that statement has ANY basis in reality! Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan are prime examples that the exact opposite is the most likely outcome!

Then these objections suddenly vanish after criticism in public and from Congress: There are NO objections...The repeated by all promoting the war narrative/policy/agenda is 'As long as it takes, whatever it costs'!

Can we skip ahead and provide F-16 fighter jets now?: The Military Industrial Complex is ALL IN for Ukraine!

EVERYONE is for prolonging the war, and NOBODY is promoting peace! It's ALL Propaganda!

quote:

Originally posted by nhracecraft:
...snip...
What a steaming pile of BULLSHIT Propaganda right there! That article could have been written by the K-street office(s) of Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and General Dynamics!

NOBODY wants this war to continue more than the 'West', led by the US and it's elites that have ZERO skin in the game! They're the ONLY one that will benefit...And EVERYONE else loses! The 'West', led by the US has nixed peace negotiations and ANY potential cease-fire/peace deal more than once, including back in March/April 2022! It's not only that everyone wants war, it's that they want to prolong the war for as long as possible! The 'West' has seemingly done everything in it's power, by both it's action and inaction, to provoke, promote and prolong this conflict! And unfortunately, none of this even touches upon all of the corruption by powerful elites in the Ukrainian and US governments, bent on fleecing the US Treasury (and Taxpayers!) for their own benefit!

Ultimately the REAL losers here are the Ukrainian people, the Russian 'people' and the American Taxpayer. And we'll be VERY Lucky if that's the extent of the tragedy of this conflict!

For people supporting this conflict, I'll ask again...Have you got children (or grandchildren) to send over there/feed into the shredder if and when it comes to that? It VERY likely will, so this isn't going to stop unless we stop funding it! Are you willing to sacrifice grandchildren and great grandchildren that will NEVER be born as a result? When it becomes a 'Blood AND Treasure' investment, are you ALL IN for Ukraine?

Or should we support Ukraine in fighting a modern Hitler looking to re-establish a new Soviet Union? Do you think he will stop with Ukraine and Moldova? What happens when he grabs the Baltic nations? That would trigger a military response. Or do we tell our allies to go fuck themselves? Remember the GWOT? It wasn't that long ago. And how NATO and other of our close allies supported us and sent troops to Afghanistan and Iraq to support our goals. So the next time some Muslim extremists kill a few thousand Americans, Europe will send us a nice 'thoughts and prayers and a PS Good Luck, our bases are off limits because we don't want to give ragheads a reason to attack us.'

As for a peace treaty last April, have you read what the Russians want? It makes Versailles look magnanimous. Ukraine was correct in rejecting it.

And what does it say about us that we are willing to allow a nation to be overrun by a tyrant promising genocide against the conquered people because we don't like our current president. Biden is a piece of shit, but if we can't come together to support an ally or other bipartisan issues, then what is the point? Plus this isn't just Ukraine. It is North Korea is always looking at South Korea. It is China and Taiwan. And a dozen other flashpoints that with the wrong word said or perceived weakness will cause a dictatorship looking to seize a western nation.

quote:

Originally posted by nhracecraft:
...
EVERYONE is for prolonging the war, and NOBODY is promoting peace! It's ALL Propaganda!

And I bet you still believe the Russian propaganda of Zelensky being a Nazi and him running bio-labs making Ukrainian Super Soldiers for the evil NATO.

Anytime Russia has proposed peace or terms as a prelude to a peace conversation, it essentially is, "Give us what we came for or stop fighting and we'll have peace."

Russia has horrible track record that can't be massaged into a peace loving nation. They practice incrementalism as their doctrine of expanding the nation or puppet nations.

Russia has no ability to exert their influence to any place in the world that isn't contiguous with Russia itself. Their logistics are shit and aren't set up to only supply what's required but instead, they send everything forward. That ends of costing logistics energy to send things to units who haven't requested everything they received but that's the Russian way. When unit receive things they didn't request, the excess materials are sold off to locals and the cash pocketed. Their have horrible logistics and it's part of their current problems.

It means they have to expand outward from Russia. Assuming that Ukraine falls tomorrow, Russia isn't done in the region. They regather, pick another region or country and repeat. That's the only way they can exert their influence or expand their territory.