I'm wondering what the impact of a very high concentration of elderly in Florida will be. My dad is 84 and my mom is 78, and both are in very poor shape -- they couldn't physically sit in a car for the length of time it would take to get out of the project path north, and my mom can't fly b/c of condition. My dad's even older cousin lives on a condo on the beach @ Daytona and wasn't planning on leaving until relatives came and got her and took her inland a bit. My brother offered to fly down from NoVa to get them, but they said no, they had various Dr appointments they had to make.

They thought it through, and I and my brother concur, that at this point they are better off staying put with their needed medical equipment and gathered supplies rather than risk being caught in a motel somewhere without or even worse, on the road. They have hurricane shutters (which they installed after a hurricane a few years ago). They are four miles inland in Ormond and at 22 feet, so storm surge not so much an issue, but they will be hard-put when power goes out (my brother and I have been on them about a generator, but my mom's got in her head that they are more dangerous than they're worth, so . . .). After Matthew, they were able to use a neighbor's when needed, but . . . .

She says they love Florida and have been there a long, long time (my dad grew up there), but they're starting to see that it may no longer be practical.

So I'm wondering about all the nursing home, assisted living, and other elderly folks who may not be physically or mentally able to evacuate -- perhaps a greater issue than with hurricanes in other spots along the Gulf.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:

quote:

Originally posted by DrDan:
None of my neighbors seem to be doing anything.

Well, Judge Judy is on, dammit.

She lives here in Naples. She has a Cessna Citation X, so I'm sure she is at one of her other residences right about now.

Good news - some of the folks unconcerned with this are still in the keys, riding out to the Southern Most Point and taking selfies and such.... That shot should get interesting in a day!

Key West cam

^^^^LOL, I just looked at that and a chicken ran across right in front of the bouy. I'm not sure why I found that so amusing.

quote:

Originally posted by Scoutmaster:
sdy:

Could you find a map showing the hurricane taking a sharp left curve and running out of gas in the Gulf?

(I have family in central Florida).

If it went into the Gulf, it wouldn't run out of gas. The warm waters of the Gulf are the gas that fuels hurricanes.

quote:

Originally posted by bigdeal:

quote:

Originally posted by Scoutmaster:
sdy:

Could you find a map showing the hurricane taking a sharp left curve and running out of gas in the Gulf?

(I have family in central Florida).

Stay tuned, nothing's guaranteed yet. Over the next 24 hours the path of this storm could still move quite a bit. As mentioned earlier in this thread, hurricane Charlie's track changed by ~100 miles right before it came ashore.

Track keeps moving slightly west, hope it stays moving slightly west or not anymore. Irma moving into the gulf would be very bad

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
^^^^LOL, I just looked at that and a chicken ran across right in front of the bouy. I'm not sure why I found that so amusing.

Poor chicken's gonna have a rough few days.

quote:

Originally posted by Sigmanic:

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
^^^^LOL, I just looked at that and a chicken ran across right in front of the bouy. I'm not sure why I found that so amusing.

Poor chicken's gonna have a rough few days.

It's probably going to get eaten buy one of those sharks floating around in Irma.

On a more serious not: A friend of my wife left Cape Coral this morning. Some idiot backed into her car at a gas station which added an hour and a half to her travel time. She left at 7:00 this morning and it looks like she'll get to her hotel in Columbus, GA at 8:00 this evening. She went up 75 to 98 to 19.

Want the opinion of the SF brain trust. Looks more and more like Naples is going to get a direct hit. Will wait and see the 8PM and 11PM models, but am considering a drive across to Palm Beach Gardens. My parents have a house there that is outside the storm surge zone. It will still be a hurricane but maybe not a Cat 4/5 intensity there and life may return to normal there sooner than over here. Traffic looks light and gas seems to be available along the way. Could make a midnight run and beat the first big winds with plenty of time. I have a full tank and can make it there on a little more than half a tank in normal traffic. I do have a safe place to be here, but thinking it might be an easier ride over there if the current forecasts persist. Plus I can stay there for weeks or months if needed.

Smart plan or just stay put?

quote:

Smart plan or just stay put?

I think I'd skootch across if I had that option, rather than ride out a landfall. However I'd also wait until way closer to impact give the apparently uncertainty on forecast right now.

quote:

Originally posted by Georgeair:

quote:

Smart plan or just stay put?

I think I'd skootch across if I had that option, rather than ride out a landfall. However I'd also wait until way closer to impact give the apparently uncertainty on forecast right now.

They are saying South Florida will start getting tropical storm force winds at around 8 AM tomorrow - So some kind of middle of the night departure is the best I can do I think to have a comfortable margin of safety. It's about a 2 hrs 20min drive with no traffic, though 2:30 or 2:40 is more typical.

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
Want the opinion of the SF brain trust. Looks more and more like Naples is going to get a direct hit. Will wait and see the 8PM and 11PM models, but am considering a drive across to Palm Beach Gardens. My parents have a house there that is outside the storm surge zone. It will still be a hurricane but maybe not a Cat 4/5 intensity there and life may return to normal there sooner than over here. Traffic looks light and gas seems to be available along the way. Could make a midnight run and beat the first big winds with plenty of time. I have a full tank and can make it there on a little more than half a tank in normal traffic. I do have a safe place to be here, but thinking it might be an easier ride over there if the current forecasts persist. Plus I can stay there for weeks or months if needed.

Smart plan or just stay put?

Why not go now when there is more margin for error? What is benefit of waiting? Had I stayed in my house for twelve to twenty more hours in Harvey I would have gotten stranded and been eventually rescued by boat. And we didn't even face windstorm, just rising water. Much less dangerous.

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:

quote:

Originally posted by Georgeair:

quote:

Smart plan or just stay put?

I think I'd skootch across if I had that option, rather than ride out a landfall. However I'd also wait until way closer to impact give the apparently uncertainty on forecast right now.

They are saying South Florida will start getting tropical storm force winds at around 8 AM tomorrow - So some kind of middle of the night departure is the best I can do I think to have a comfortable margin of safety. It's about a 2 hrs 20min drive with no traffic, though 2:30 or 2:40 is more typical.

Good point. My only concern would be getting there, and unable to reshift if needed. Driving around later in TS winds and sharknados isn't a great plan either tho....

quote:

Want the opinion of the SF brain trust. Looks more and more like Naples is going to get a direct hit. Will wait and see the 8PM and 11PM models, but am considering a drive across to Palm Beach Gardens. My parents have a house there that is outside the storm surge zone. It will still be a hurricane but maybe not a Cat 4/5 intensity there and life may return to normal there sooner than over here. Traffic looks light and gas seems to be available along the way. Could make a midnight run and beat the first big winds with plenty of time. I have a full tank and can make it there on a little more than half a tank in normal traffic. I do have a safe place to be here, but thinking it might be an easier ride over there if the current forecasts persist. Plus I can stay there for weeks or months if needed.

Smart plan or just stay put?

GO. It should be a no brainer. I have been through these things.

Is it a requirement that for every hurricane, some reporter absolutely MUST step into a wind tunnel to show us what high winds are like???

quote:

Originally posted by Rightwire:
Is it a requirement that for every hurricane, some reporter absolutely MUST step into a wind tunnel to show us what high winds are like???

If karma existed, Geraldo would have been decapitated on live TV years ago.

A fellow can hope. It might finally put an end to it.

Parents live in Palmetto. Initially it didn't look like they were going to take it to bad, now as it continues to move west it almost appears as they are inline for a direct hit or close to it. They began to board up their home today and are prepping for the storm. Initially my dad wasn't going to do anything but finally changed his mind.

If they get hit hard I'll be making the trip down within the next week or two in order to help out. Spoke with a friend I work on the side and my brother so it should be a couple of us at a min if we end up needing to go down.

At this point I'm hoping it continues to move west, but that's not a good thing either as somewhere will end up getting pounded by this storm.

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
Want the opinion of the SF brain trust. Looks more and more like Naples is going to get a direct hit. Will wait and see the 8PM and 11PM models, but am considering a drive across to Palm Beach Gardens. My parents have a house there that is outside the storm surge zone. It will still be a hurricane but maybe not a Cat 4/5 intensity there and life may return to normal there sooner than over here. Traffic looks light and gas seems to be available along the way. Could make a midnight run and beat the first big winds with plenty of time. I have a full tank and can make it there on a little more than half a tank in normal traffic. I do have a safe place to be here, but thinking it might be an easier ride over there if the current forecasts persist. Plus I can stay there for weeks or months if needed.

Smart plan or just stay put?

Why stay? Is there any benefit past the time you'd lose driving to your parents house?

I can't tell you what to do, but I wouldn't chance it. You'll spend a lot more time waiting for help if things go bad than you will driving across the state.

My mother called a little while ago. She lives about 10 miles from me, and just received a mandatory evacuation order. She was going to ride it out with my brother, but he bailed, so I will have an unexpected house guest. The food and water supply just shrank, and I don't know if I can re-supply. Good news is our worst case track is a Cat 1/2 eye wall direct hit.

quote:

My mother called a little while ago. She lives about 10 miles from me, and just received a mandatory evacuation order. She was going to ride it out with my brother, but he bailed, so I will have an unexpected house guest. The food and water supply just shrank, and I don't know if I can re-supply. Good news is our worst case track is a Cat 1/2 eye wall direct hit.

If you do not have a generator, you can pretty much count on consuming whatever frozen food you have on the grill. After that runs out, start on the nonperishable stuff. Hopefully you will not have to eat MREs. Some of them however can be kind of tasty. You make do. Be safe.