quote:

Irma has already missed the right turn for Miami, what are the odds she misses the turn for Tampa and just goes straight on in to Houston?

Zero.

quote:

Originally posted by just1tym:
According to these ststs, here on the east coast won't be spared at all from hurricane force winds

I could watch the Hurricane Terrorfest for days if she was the one telling me the spooky stories.

If they really wanted ratings they would get Yanet Garcia, the Mexican weather girl.

I'm not going to link a picture here as it's a family forum.

Sorry. I would want to hear from some ugly looking guy who knew his stuff. There used to be weather lore about these guys, Nash Roberts in NOLA, Max Mayfield, Neal Frank, Bob Breck, Bryan Norcross. These guys understood the storms and did not do things like confuse the storm direction. JMO

Here is a clip of Nash in 1992 on Andrew. I saw this at the time it was broadcast.

I have a question (as usual).
If evacuation orders are in place, where are the Weather Channel reporters staying? Are any hotels open/available? Are they staying in shelters? Sleeping in the news trucks?

I'm guessing restaurants and even convenience stores are closed too, making it tough to find food as well.

quote:

Originally posted by vthoky:

I'm guessing restaurants and even convenience stores are closed too, making it tough to find food as well.

The Brick doesn't eat until the weather stops.

Media are taken care of. Emergency personnel typically watch out for these people. During Katrina, Cantore stayed in the Armed Forces Home in Gulfport. To his surprise he became part of the story when the storm surge was higher than expected.

I heard Jim Cantore was at Germain Arena which is being used to shelter 7,000 or so people and in Estero. Al Rooker and Anderson Cooper were both in Ft Myers.

quote:

I'm guessing restaurants and even convenience stores are closed too, making it tough to find food as well.

Some of these people think they are movie stars. I think the term TV Personality comes to mind. They do not miss any meals or live in the field like the rest of us.

Some hopeful news in terms of intensity:

WTNT41 KNHC 100258
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

Irma's nearly 24-hour traversal of the north coast of Cuba appears
to have affected the hurricane's structure and intensity. An
earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and a more recent Air Force
reconnaissance flight both measured maximum flight-level winds near
105 kt and surface winds near 95 kt. The planes have reported
a double eyewall structure, which has also been observed in WSR-88D
Doppler radar data from Miami and Key West. Irma's intensity has
been conservatively lowered to 105 kt, and I'd rather wait to lower
the winds further until we've seen the full data set from the Air
Force mission.

Irma has stuttered near the north coast of Cuba for the past few
hours, which may be a harbinger of the north-northwestward turn
that we've been waiting for. In any event, Irma appears to be
moving very slowly toward the northwest, or 305/5 kt, very gradually
shifting away from the north coast of Cuba. With the hurricane
located near a break in the subtropical ridge, it should turn
north-northwestward soon and accelerate near or along the west
coast of Florida during the next 36-48 hours. Because of Irma's
hesitation to move northwestward, the new track guidance has shifted
ever so slightly westward, and the new NHC track is just a little
left of the previous one. Although it is likely that the eye will
move near or over the Lower Keys Sunday morning, the hurricane's
angle of approach to the west coast of Florida makes it very
difficult to pinpoint exactly where Irma will cross the Florida Gulf
coast.

If an eyewall replacement occurs within the next 6-12 hours, Irma
has an opportunity to restrengthen a bit while it moves across the
Straits of Florida. After that time, however, southwesterly shear
is expected to increase to 25-30 kt in about 24 hours and then
continue increasing through 48 hours. This shear, in addition to
Irma's core interacting with Florida, is likely to cause a
weakening trend after 24 hours. The new intensity guidance calls
for an adjustment from the previous forecast, although it
conservatively lies near the upper bound of the reliable models.
Irma is still expected to approach the Florida Keys and Florida
west coast as a major hurricane, and combined with its large size,
will produce significant storm surge flooding in those areas.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected bring life-threatening wind and storm surge to
the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane tonight through Sunday. Preparations in the Florida
Keys and southwest Florida should be complete since tropical-storm-
force winds are already affecting portions of the coast.

2. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge
flooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the
Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat
of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest
coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground
level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation, and
everyone in these areas should immediately follow any evacuation
instructions from local officials.

3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida
regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma
are also expected to spread northward through much of Georgia
and portions of South Carolina and Alabama.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts
of between 20 and 25 inches, are expected over the Florida Keys, the
Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia from Saturday through
Monday. Significant river flooding is possible in these areas. Early
next week Irma will also bring periods of heavy rain to much of the
southeast United States where an average of 2 to 6 inches is
forecast, with isolated higher amounts, from North and South
Carolina to Tennessee and eastern Alabama. This includes some
mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. Residents
throughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood
threat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 23.5N 81.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 24.7N 81.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 26.8N 82.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 29.5N 83.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...ON THE COAST
48H 12/0000Z 32.2N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/0000Z 35.3N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 14/0000Z 37.0N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



Quick Links and Additional Resources

I've been watching the Ft Myers 2 stream on Youtube and it's horrifying how much that entire area could change with a 10 foot storm surge. Thankfully, they just lowered the wind projection to 120 mph.

quote:

Originally posted by Scuba Steve Sig:

quote:

Originally posted by just1tym:
According to these ststs, here on the east coast won't be spared at all from hurricane force winds

I could watch the Hurricane Terrorfest for days if she was the one telling me the spooky stories.

They have since corrected the two storm stats thank God! Hurricane force winds stretching out 195mi would be a record!

satellite pic from 10 am Saturday morning



from:

https://www.wunderground.com/c...e-cat-3-or-4-florida

Well guys prayers, good thoughts and I will likley putting together another 300 pound care package of water/food this time going to Florida.

Severe weather TERRIFIES me so my heart goes out to all of you I hope and pray there is no loss of life and as little damage as possible.

I have friends in Houston and Tampa so my nerves are shot/ NOT AS MUCH AS YOU GUYS IN THE BULLSEYE OF COURSE.

Take care stay safe. If you see animals walking 2 by 2 follow them, bring a hammer and help finish the damn boat and pay whatever dude is asking for tickets.

quote:

Originally posted by cslinger:
...If you see animals walking 2 by 2 follow them, bring a hammer and help finish the damn boat and pay whatever dude is asking for tickets.

^^^ Nicely worded... & now I need a chicken sandwich!

quote:

Originally posted by Tuckerrnr1:
< Chik snip >

They only have water if the water system operates.

This is why I own a three gallon stock pot and a Big Berkey water filter. So long as I have access to water and wood, I have safe water.

key west radar..., increase animation speed to max at the bottom, hit rock to see movement better

tampa radar, which'll come into play soon

melbourne radar

miami radar

jacksonville radar

tallahassee radar

atlantic IR sat loop..., hit the faster button several times, then hit rock to really see movement

IRMA discussion

quote:

Originally posted by Tuckerrnr1:

They won't have water today because it is Sunday and they are closed.