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Irma - everyone has gone nuts Login/Join 
E tan e epi tas
Picture of cslinger
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Don't you think the cruise ship would divert or stay at sea if this monster is that close on Sunday?


Take Care, Shoot Safe,
Chris
 
Posts: 8074 | Location: On the water | Registered: July 25, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Nullus Anxietas
Picture of ensigmatic
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quote:
Originally posted by rduckwor:
DAMN! Youngest son and wife are on a cruise due to port in MIA on Sunday.

Free extended cruise.



"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
"If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
 
Posts: 26069 | Location: S.E. Michigan | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie
Picture of Balzé Halzé
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by rduckwor:
DAMN! Youngest son and wife are on a cruise due to port in MIA on Sunday. Hope they have a car left when they finally get in and then can find gas to get home IF they get in.

RMD


They'll be fine.

Can't say about the car though.


~Alan

Acta Non Verba
NRA Life Member (Patron)
God, Family, Guns, Country

Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan

 
Posts: 31211 | Location: Elv. 7,000 feet, Utah | Registered: October 29, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of chansen92
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Ironmike57:
I went to 4 different Wal-Mart's today looking for water. All gone. I scored 15 gallons at a local Publix.

It seems that all of the water went to Texas.



quote:
Originally posted by FlyingScot:
So yes, this looks to be a problem for Florida. Good news, everyone is taking it seriously. Bad news, going to the store, driving, trying to buy bread - good luck. Store shelves are emptying quickly and yo could not get me near a Home Depot.

Here's hoping this thing goes away - latest Euro and GFS have this as a 890 millibar storm coming up the east coast. That would not be good.
Open the water tap in your kitchen and get all the free water you want. You can always fill your tub if you have one or get some 2 gal. zip lock bags and fill those.
 
Posts: 1622 | Location: owosso,Mi. USA | Registered: August 18, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
Latest update from NHC 8pm EDT:

 
Posts: 17749 | Location: Stuck at home | Registered: January 02, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Funny Man
Picture of TXJIM
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That's an ugly forecast track for sure. If the leading edge of the eye wall of a category 4 or 5 storm rakes the entire eastern shore of Florida from Miami to the Georgia line the destruction will massive.


______________________________
“I'd like to know why well-educated idiots keep apologizing for lazy and complaining people who think the world owes them a living.”
― John Wayne
 
Posts: 7093 | Location: Austin, TX | Registered: June 29, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Just for the
hell of it
Picture of comet24
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Max sustained winds still 185mph. That's ugly.

Looks like the eye will miss Haiti and the DR. Good for them but their mountains may have slowed it down just a bit.


_____________________________________

Because in the end, you won’t remember the time you spent working in the office or mowing your lawn. Climb that goddamn mountain. Jack Kerouac
 
Posts: 16500 | Registered: March 27, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Conductor in Residence
Picture of Maestro
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I get the privilege of running security at the shelter for the school where I work, in one of the worst neighborhoods in the country. That's going to be eye-opening. But I have 8 city cops on staff to deal with the major stuff.

We are expecting 4000-6000 folks with a staff of 15 plus 8 cops, for at least 48 hours.

Wow.
 
Posts: 3700 | Location: Tampa Bay, FL | Registered: July 23, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Peace through
superior firepower
Picture of parabellum
posted Hide Post
Armed security?
 
Posts: 110398 | Registered: January 20, 2000Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
It better be. Sounds understaffed to me. Hope the toilets and air conditioning stay working. Hopefully there will be volunteers that have experience in dealing with the mentally ill and homeless. Some people think they will be having a party. The crowd from Walmart is a picnic compared to this crowd. Good luck. Hoping you have medical personnel as well. I would specifically ask about having mental health folks there. In addition to the usual, there are people who have severe anxiety disorder that you will be dealing with. Good luck. Hopefully you will have backup from the Florida National Guard. They can help a lot.
 
Posts: 17749 | Location: Stuck at home | Registered: January 02, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Ethics, antics,
and ballistics
Picture of Dtech
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We took advantage this afternoon that the weather was good and took care of shuttering up the house, bringing in whatever might be a projectile hazard or get damaged from the yard and have room in the garage for both of our vehicles that are still full of fuel with some extra in cans. We are fully supplied for weeks if necessary and I have a few more items arriving via shipping carrier over the next two days so we will be as prepared as we can be.

As for underground utilities, they may not be indestructible, but the power definitely gets back on faster when the power company only has to mostly worry about the main transmission lines and transformers as opposed to neighborhood power poles and wiring, especially in newer suburbs like ours, if the power even goes out at all that is.

I'm still thinking the average of the computer models give or take a few miles will come to pass and that the eye will not make landfall in South Florida. They were saying earlier that although the storm is powerful, the hurricane force winds only extend 50 miles from the center so the area with the strongest winds is very narrow around the eye. Keeping everyone in our prayers and hoping for the best.


-Dtech
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Posts: 4417 | Location: Central Florida | Registered: April 03, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Nullus Anxietas
Picture of ensigmatic
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quote:
Originally posted by Dtech:
I'm still thinking the average of the computer models give or take a few miles will come to pass and that the eye will not make landfall in South Florida.

Problem with that thinking is the European model usually ends up being the most accurate.

I hope, for your sake, that of our other members, a friend of mine who lives just south of Daytona, and the rest of the residents of Florida that you're right, but, if I lived in that area I think I'd be outta there if I could be.



"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
"If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
 
Posts: 26069 | Location: S.E. Michigan | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by rduckwor:
DAMN! Youngest son and wife are on a cruise due to port in MIA on Sunday. Hope they have a car left when they finally get in and then can find gas to get home IF they get in.

RMD


You better HOPE they don't get into Miami on Sunday, the storm is due to hit 8am, seas 51', yes FEET. So hopefully the ship diverts. If the car is in the parking garage, it's probably the safest place for it.
 
Posts: 21430 | Registered: June 12, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
You better HOPE they don't get into Miami on Sunday, the storm is due to hit 8am, seas 51', yes FEET. So hopefully the ship diverts. If the car is in the parking garage, it's probably the safest place for it.


Yeah the cruise lines have all diverted. They are staying out to sea, and if it is feasible going to another port.
 
Posts: 17749 | Location: Stuck at home | Registered: January 02, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by ensigmatic:
quote:
Originally posted by Dtech:
I'm still thinking the average of the computer models give or take a few miles will come to pass and that the eye will not make landfall in South Florida.

Problem with that thinking is the European model usually ends up being the most accurate.

I hope, for your sake, that of our other members, a friend of mine who lives just south of Daytona, and the rest of the residents of Florida that you're right, but, if I lived in that area I think I'd be outta there if I could be.


Well over the past 36 hours they have gradually kept shifting the track eastward. First it was landfall at Key West, then Marathon, then Key Largo, now Miami......So hopefully it keeps turning more eastward.....
 
Posts: 21430 | Registered: June 12, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Get Off My Lawn
Picture of oddball
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Maestro:
I get the privilege of running security at the shelter for the school where I work, in one of the worst neighborhoods in the country. That's going to be eye-opening. But I have 8 city cops on staff to deal with the major stuff.

We are expecting 4000-6000 folks with a staff of 15 plus 8 cops, for at least 48 hours.

Wow.


That's a lot of displaced folks in one building. Stay safe, good luck.



"I’m not going to read Time Magazine, I’m not going to read Newsweek, I’m not going to read any of these magazines; I mean, because they have too much to lose by printing the truth"- Bob Dylan, 1965
 
Posts: 17676 | Location: Texas | Registered: May 13, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
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From the official source. NHC

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

Earlier radar observations from the San Juan WSR-88D showed a
concentric eyewall, and observations from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft showed a secondary wind maximum over the northwest
quadrant. These phenomena may be associated with some weakening,
but since the central pressure hasn't risen much the intensity is
held at 160 kt at this time. Moreover, the concentric eyewall has
become less apparent in recent radar imagery. Considerable
lightning activity has been noted in the eyewall of Irma, which
research has shown to sometimes be a harbinger of weakening.
Notwithstanding, low vertical wind shear and warm waters along the
forecast track of Irma should allow it to remain a very powerful
hurricane during the next several days. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one except at day 5 when
stronger shear should cause more weakening. This forecast is
generally above the intensity model consensus.

Irma continues on a west-northwestward heading at around 14 kt. A
ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic should maintain
this course for the next 48 to 72 hours. Later in the forecast
period a shortwave trough moving into the southeastern United
States is likely to turn the hurricane northwestward to
north-northwestward. There has been a slight eastward shift in
some of the track guidance models, but since the models could shift
back to the west it is prudent to make little change to the
official forecast at this time. In any event, users are reminded
not to focus on the exact track since the average NHC track
errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will
bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to
Puerto Rico tonight, the northern coast of Hispaniola Thursday, and
the Turks and Caicos and southeastern and central Bahamas Thursday
and Friday.

2. Hurricane watches are in effect for the northwestern Bahamas and
much of Cuba. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge,
and rainfall to portions of these areas on Friday and Saturday.

3. The threat of direct hurricane impacts in Florida over the
weekend and early next week has increased. Hurricane watches will
likely be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida
peninsula on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 19.4N 66.8W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 20.3N 68.8W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 21.3N 71.7W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 22.1N 74.1W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 22.7N 76.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 24.0N 79.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 27.4N 80.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 32.0N 81.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
Posts: 17749 | Location: Stuck at home | Registered: January 02, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of just1tym
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Haven't posted in awhile, health issues getting the best of me lately. Having went thru a direct impact during Hurricane Andrew, looks like I'll soon also be riding point with this one also. I'm located at the most southern SE coastline of Florida, just a tad north of the Entrance to the upper Keys. Early tomorrow morning my BIL and Sister are coming here on their way to their business in the morning to put up my shutters for me. I just cannot do that kind pf stuff for myself anymore Frown. I'm certainly not looking forward to another strong storm. In the past before getting ill, I worked for Florida Power and Light Co where my service center is located less than 2mi from my door. Since having to be retired a few years back, I really can't see living so close to the water and I've wanted to move north since but my wife really likes it here and has several friends here. She's never been thru a Hurricane so maybe this experience will help change her mind about living here. I've lived here in Miami for 63 years and have seen my share of storms. I really don't need to live here anymore and really nothing to keep me here, so this may be my last storm. Looks like another strong one with Irma. I had so much damage to my previous home from Hurricane Andrew I had to leave that home and purchased this one about a mile further east that had minor damages and was repairable with no major structural damages. I paid for the repairs on this home to stay in close proximity to my FPL service center. I'm about done with strong storms, even if there about 25yrs apart, there will always be another. I just don't see staying here with my health and having to scramble from room to room as the house is coming apart and hunkering down in the bathroom again with the animals praying for my life. As an aside, due to the barometric pressure during Hurricane Andrew, both my dogs started crawling around on their bellies like snakes from the effects of the barometric pressures, what an eye opener, poor pups. I wish all fellow Floridians the best with this storm, be careful, and be prepared. Godspeed all..


Regards, Will G.
 
Posts: 9660 | Location: 140 mi to Margaritaville, FL | Registered: January 02, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Stangosaurus Rex
Picture of Tommydogg
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Will, I was thinking about you, I wish you the best of luck! Your in the crosshairs. Stay safe@


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Beth Greene
 
Posts: 7848 | Location: South Florida | Registered: January 09, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
I know nothing about Hurricanes.
How far inland can this thing reach?

Someone posted about possibly staying in Tallahassee. Assuming that would be far enough inland, to be safe?




 
Posts: 10062 | Registered: October 15, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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