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When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2) Login/Join 
Get my pies
outta the oven!

Picture of PASig
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by sdy:
From one of the leading assholes that brought us obamacare, Ezekiel Emanuel:


Yeah, I’m not taking any advice from this clown. The guy who was all for death panels and not letting anyone over age 75 have healthcare to prolong their lives?

This guy is probably delighted at this pandemic and how it’s killing mostly older people.

Roll Eyes


 
Posts: 27146 | Location: Pennsylvania | Registered: November 12, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by bigdeal:
quote:
Originally posted by sdy:
Maybe a lot of the deaths occurred in patients who were not hospitalized ?
So we're having massive amounts of people dying at home?


That's it!!

100,000+ people are dead in their homes. Nobody knows yet, because we are all sheltered in place! Eek




 
Posts: 8875 | Registered: October 15, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of PowerSurge
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So much for actually having an accurate number of US Chinese Virus deaths. Never gonna happen. Obviously the number will be higher than the truth: https://www.foxnews.com/politi...-regardless-of-cause
 
Posts: 3443 | Location: Northeast Georgia | Registered: November 18, 2017Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of BansheeOne
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The question is rather complex. Of listed COVID-19 deaths with co-morbidities, how many died of the virus' direct effects like pneumonia? How many would have died of their pre-existing conditions at this time anyway? How many died because the infection worsened their overall situation where their body couldn't cope, though they might have survived any single problem? How many would have died at a later time of their existing condition, but their deaths were accelerated by the infection? Etc.

Meanwhile my alma mater weighs in on the question how many of the total infections we're actually seeing.

quote:
COVID-19: on average only 6% of actual SARS-CoV-2 infections detected worldwide

Actual number of infections may already have reached several tens of millions


The number of confirmed cases for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 officially issued by countries and widely commented on by national and international media outlets dramatically understates the true number of infections, a recent report from the University of Göttingen suggests. Dr Christian Bommer and Professor Sebastian Vollmer from Göttingen University have used estimates of COVID-19 mortality and time until death from a recent study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases to test the quality of official case records. Their data shows that countries have only discovered on average about 6% of coronavirus infections and the true number of infected people worldwide may already have reached several tens of millions.

Insufficient and delayed testing may explain why some European countries, such as Italy and Spain, are experiencing much higher casualty numbers (relative to reported confirmed cases) than Germany, which has detected an estimated 15.6% of infections compared to only 3.5% in Italy or 1.7% in Spain. Detection rates are even lower in the United States (1.6%) and the United Kingdom (1.2%) two countries that have received widespread criticism from public health experts for their delayed response to the pandemic.

In sharp contrast to this, South Korea appears to have discovered almost half of all its SARS-CoV-2 infections. The authors estimate that on 31 March 2020, Germany had 460,000 infections. Based on the same method, they calculate that the United States had more than ten million, Spain more than five million, Italy around three million and the United Kingdom around two million infections. On the same day the Johns Hopkins University reported that globally there were less than 900,000 confirmed cases, meaning that the vast majority of infections were undetected.

Sebastian Vollmer, Professor of Development Economics at the University of Göttingen, says, These results mean that governments and policy-makers need to exercise extreme caution when interpreting case numbers for planning purposes. Such extreme differences in the amount and quality of testing carried out in different countries mean that official case records are largely uninformative and do not provide helpful information. Christian Bommer adds: Major improvements in the ability of countries to detect new infections and contain the virus are urgently needed.


http://www.uni-goettingen.de/en/606540.html
 
Posts: 2135 | Location: Berlin, Germany | Registered: April 12, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lawyers, Guns
and Money
Picture of chellim1
posted Hide Post
quote:
The number of confirmed cases for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 officially issued by countries and widely commented on by national and international media outlets dramatically understates the true number of infections, a recent report from the University of Göttingen suggests.

That's what we were discussing here yesterday, but without the fancy Göttingen credentials. Big Grin

What we all lack is solid, reliable information; specifically the actual numbers of deaths caused solely by the Chinese Virus and more importantly the number of people who have been infected by it. When you divide former by the latter, you get a percentage that tells you how lethal the virus is. Because the Chinese have lied about this from the start, we cannot really know when the first person on our soil was infected. That meant that the denominator more than likely was artificially low. But given we do know of in unusually large number of people with severe flu-like symptoms that more than likely was the Chinese Virus in the waning months of last year, it now looks as if the plague came to our shores perhaps several months before the original estimation of late December 2019 and early January. That would make the denominator much higher and the resulting lethality significantly lower.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: chellim1,



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
 
Posts: 19366 | Location: St. Louis, MO | Registered: April 03, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Interesting report from Johns Hopkins:

“Countries that have a widespread vaccination programme involving the Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) jab have a coronavirus death rate almost six times lower than nations that do not use it, a study reveals.

The BCG vaccine was invented a century ago and gives immunity to tuberculosis (TB) — a bacterial infection — but it is known to have other benefits.

Previous trials discovered people that receive the jab, which costs as little as £30, have improved immune systems and are able to protect themselves from infection.”

https://mol.im/a/8197247



Don’t argue with fools.
 
Posts: 6249 | Location: San Diego | Registered: July 26, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Go ahead punk, make my day
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by sdy:
From one of the leading assholes that brought us obamacare, Ezekiel Emanuel:

Realistically, COVID-19 will be here for the next 18 months or more . We will not be able to return to normalcy until we find a vaccine or effective medications.

I know that’s dreadful news to hear. How are people supposed to find work if this goes on in some form for a year and a half? Is all that economic pain worth trying to stop COVID-19? The truth is we have no choice. If we prematurely end that physical distancing and the other measures keeping it at bay, deaths could skyrocket into the hundreds of thousands if not a million.

We cannot return to normal until there’s a vaccine. Conferences, concerts, sporting events, religious services, dinner in a restaurant, none of that will resume until we find a vaccine, a treatment, or a cure.

https://www.breitbart.com/poli...uld-be-12-18-months/

Well, he believes life is over after 75, so we really shouldn't be providing ANY care to those people.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ma...to-die-at-75/379329/
 
Posts: 45798 | Registered: July 12, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
wishing we
were congress
posted Hide Post
https://www.usatoday.com/story...llnesses/2960151001/

The majority of New York’s more than 4,700 deaths due to coronavirus were among men, and 86% of all deaths were among people who had underlying illnesses, such as hypertension and diabetes, new state data shows.

The statistics released late Monday offered the latest glimpse into how the rapidly spreading virus has impacted New York and made it the epicenter for COVID-19 in the nation.

Of the 4,758 deaths in New York since the first on March 14, 61% were men and 39% were women, the state Department of Health reportedon its new data portal.

In addition, 63% of the deaths were among those age 70 and older, while 7% of the cases were those 49 and younger.

And 4,089 of those who died had at least one other chronic disease, the records showed:

The leading underlying illness was hypertension, which showed up in 55% of the deaths.

Next was diabetes, which was diagnosed in 1,755 deaths, or about 37% of the cases.

Other top illnesses found in those who died from coronavirus were hyperlipidemia; coronary artery disease; renal disease and dementia.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

hypertension - high blood pressure

hyperlipidemia - abnormally high levels of fats (lipids) in the blood. The two major types of lipids found in the blood are triglycerides and cholesterol.

renal disease - kidney disease
 
Posts: 16320 | Registered: July 21, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of SigSentry
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Bisleyblackhawk:
quote:
Originally posted by SigSentry:
quote:
Originally posted by Kuisis:
Well John Prine is gone.


Very few coming off vents. RIP.


I just saw this Frown...fuck!


I've been saying that a lot.

"One of your most famous songs, “Angel From Montgomery,” begins, “I am an old woman/Named after my mother.” What made you comfortable using a female perspective?
Nobody told me you weren’t supposed to. Ignorance is bliss as a writer, I think. I always had an affinity for older people. I had a job delivering newspapers, and one place I had to go was an old people’s home. Some people would introduce you to their neighbors as if you were a nephew or grandson. They didn’t get many visitors, so they acted like you were coming to see them. And that stuck with me for a long time. I think I was 22 when I wrote that"

https://www.rollingstone.com/m...-songwriting-126460/
 
Posts: 2600 | Registered: May 30, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
It's not you,
it's me.
Picture of RAMIUS
posted Hide Post
I still don’t understand why we don’t know if you can be reinfected after recovering. Is that really that hard to find out?
 
Posts: 7003 | Location: Right outside Philly | Registered: September 08, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I've worked in hospital labs for about 12 years now as a service person. In that time I've become very good at not touching my face and being very cognizant of what I touch and the order I touch it in i.e. I try to never touch my phone or laptop without clean hands.

So now though I'm being forced to wear a little paper mask whenever I enter a facility. Not being used to this thing makes me touch it and my face 10x as much as I would have otherwise as it's constantly ridng up and touching my lower eyelashes or if I put it lower it pulls off my nose when I talk...

Just my weak rant for the day.




 
Posts: 1454 | Location: Ypsilanti, MI | Registered: August 03, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Void Where Prohibited
Picture of WaterburyBob
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quote:
Originally posted by RAMIUS:
I still don’t understand why we don’t know if you can be reinfected after recovering. Is that really that hard to find out?

It's been stated several times in this thread that you cannot. Previous cases of supposed reinfection were errors in testing.



"If Gun Control worked, Chicago would look like Mayberry, not Thunderdome" - Cam Edwards
 
Posts: 15520 | Location: Under the Boot of Tyranny in Connectistan | Registered: February 02, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
It's not you,
it's me.
Picture of RAMIUS
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
quote:
Originally posted by RAMIUS:
I still don’t understand why we don’t know if you can be reinfected after recovering. Is that really that hard to find out?

It's been stated several times in this thread that you cannot. Previous cases of supposed reinfection were errors in testing.


Must have missed it. My friend’s who had it still don’t know if they can be reinfected, that came from their doctors.

My nurse buddy who is now in quarantine doesn’t even know if we can build immunity like other viruses.
 
Posts: 7003 | Location: Right outside Philly | Registered: September 08, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Void Where Prohibited
Picture of WaterburyBob
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If you couldn't build antibodies nobody could ever recover from the infection.



"If Gun Control worked, Chicago would look like Mayberry, not Thunderdome" - Cam Edwards
 
Posts: 15520 | Location: Under the Boot of Tyranny in Connectistan | Registered: February 02, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
It's not you,
it's me.
Picture of RAMIUS
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
If you couldn't build antibodies nobody could ever recover from the infection.


So you’re telling me that people who have recovered from it can go about their daily business and don’t need to be in quarantine?
 
Posts: 7003 | Location: Right outside Philly | Registered: September 08, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Void Where Prohibited
Picture of WaterburyBob
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by RAMIUS:
quote:
Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
If you couldn't build antibodies nobody could ever recover from the infection.


So you’re telling me that people who have recovered from it can go about their daily business and don’t need to be in quarantine?
Yes, after a two week of no symptoms safety quarantine. We have workers at our hospital that tested positive and had symptoms return to work this week.



"If Gun Control worked, Chicago would look like Mayberry, not Thunderdome" - Cam Edwards
 
Posts: 15520 | Location: Under the Boot of Tyranny in Connectistan | Registered: February 02, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
It's not you,
it's me.
Picture of RAMIUS
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
quote:
Originally posted by RAMIUS:
quote:
Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
If you couldn't build antibodies nobody could ever recover from the infection.


So you’re telling me that people who have recovered from it can go about their daily business and don’t need to be in quarantine?
Yes, after a two week of no symptoms safety quarantine. We have workers at our hospital that tested positive and had symptoms return to work this week.


So they’re now immune? They can go lick door knobs in the corona unit? Honest question.
 
Posts: 7003 | Location: Right outside Philly | Registered: September 08, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Void Where Prohibited
Picture of WaterburyBob
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I would never lick a doorknob ...

But yes, that's what our Infectious Diseases department has told us.
That's the basis for plasma donations from recovered patients - the antibodies help people severely affected by the virus.



"If Gun Control worked, Chicago would look like Mayberry, not Thunderdome" - Cam Edwards
 
Posts: 15520 | Location: Under the Boot of Tyranny in Connectistan | Registered: February 02, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
It's not you,
it's me.
Picture of RAMIUS
posted Hide Post
Well that’s nice to know.
 
Posts: 7003 | Location: Right outside Philly | Registered: September 08, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
wishing we
were congress
posted Hide Post
a significant issue

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/...problematic-n2566543

Dr Birx:

"The intent is right now if someone dies with COVID-19, we're counting that as a COVID-19 death," "There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition and let's say the virus caused you to go the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem. Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death."

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

difficult problem

maybe a better approach is that a doctor has to make a call on each case:

primarily due to Covid 19 or

primarily due to xyz but Covid 19 present

Then Covid 19 deaths are only counted when the China virus was the primary cause.



Given many of the people dying are older and have general health problems this might be a better approach
 
Posts: 16320 | Registered: July 21, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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