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No more Mr. Nice Guy
Picture of cobrajet
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quote:
Originally posted by SIG4EVA:
Trump's decline has officially started. His 31 consecutive polls streak being on top has been broken by Cruz. Of course, Trump said its a joke and everyone is a liar.


Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump has fallen behind Ted Cruz in the national GOP horserace, according to a brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

In the poll, Cruz is the first choice of 28 percent of Republican primary voters, while Trump gets 26 percent. They're followed by Marco Rubio at 17 percent, John Kasich at 11 percent, Ben Carson at 10 percent and Jeb Bush at 4 percent.


NBC News
The results from the poll — conducted after Trump's victory in New Hampshire and Saturday's GOP debate in South Carolina — are a significant reversal from last month, when Trump held a 13-point lead over Cruz, 33 percent to 20 percent.

Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart and his firm Hart Research Associates, says Trump's drop could signal being "right on top of a shift in the campaign."

"When you see a number this different, it means you might be right on top of a shift in the campaign. What you don't know yet is if the change is going to take place or if it is a momentary 'pause' before the numbers snap back into place," he said.

McInturff added, "So, one poll post-Saturday debate can only reflect there may have been a 'pause' as Republican voters take another look at Trump. This happened earlier this summer and he bounced back stronger. We will have to wait this time and see what voters decide."

This poll comes after other surveys — both nationally and in South Carolina, the site of Saturday's next Republican contest — show Trump with a commanding lead. But some of those weren't conducted entirely after the last debate like the NBC/WSJ poll.

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Cruz Talks to NBC News About Facing off With Trump, Uniting Conservatives 3:29
Another possible explanation for Trump's decline in the new NBC/WSJ poll is an increase in "very conservative" Republican voters from January's sample.

If the current poll is re-weighted to reflect the ideological composition from last month, the GOP horserace numbers are: Trump 26 percent, Cruz 25 percent, Rubio 18 percent and Kasich 13 percent — so Trump is ahead by one point, but still down from January.

In addition to Trump's decline in the GOP race, the new NBC/WSJ poll shows a nine-point drop in the percentage of GOP primary voters who can see themselves supporting the real-estate mogul — from 65 percent in January to 56 percent now.

The highest candidate scores on this scale: Rubio (70 percent can see themselves supporting him), Cruz (65 percent), Carson (62 percent), Trump (56 percent), Kasich (49 percent) and Bush (46 percent).

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Trump: 'Someone at the WSJ Doesn't Like Me' 1:05
And in hypothetical one-on-one match ups, Trump trails both Cruz (56 percent to 40 percent) and Rubio (57 percent to 41 percent). In January, Trump was ahead of Rubio (by 7 points) but behind Cruz (by 8 points).

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Feb. 14-16 of 800 registered voters (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.5 percentage points) and 400 GOP primary voters (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 4.9 percentage points).

The Link


While that poll is very promising, it is only one poll. I do believe a to. Of people are finally starting to wake up about Trump, but I'm not sure if Cruz can beat him unless another candidate or two drop out. I firmly believe in a head to head matchup Cruz would destroy him, but that is obviously not going to happen. The good news is Cruz always does better than what the polls say, at least he has so far in his Senate bid and the first two primaries.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"The problem with our Liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, it's that they know so much that isn't so." Ronald Reagan
 
Posts: 12401 | Location: Middle TN | Registered: November 20, 2012Report This Post
I have lived the
greatest adventure
Picture of AUTiger89
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I agree, cobrajet. While I would love for this truly to be a shift in the polls toward Cruz, it is still just one poll, and it is still within the margin of error.




Phone's ringing, Dude.
 
Posts: 6245 | Location: Upstate SC | Registered: April 06, 2011Report This Post
Alienator
Picture of SIG4EVA
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I understand it is just one poll but it is also the first one to break Trump's streak. As we have seen in past elections, the polls don't mean shit. I've enjoyed watching this election more than most due to the dynamics of the candidates. There is much more to come.


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Psalm 118:24 "This is the day which the Lord hath made; we will rejoice and be glad in it"
 
Posts: 7247 | Location: NC | Registered: March 16, 2012Report This Post
I have lived the
greatest adventure
Picture of AUTiger89
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Okay, I may have to re-think this whole Trump thing since he's slamming Lindsey Graham. (Just kidding)

quote:
Donald Trump
"I think Lindsey Graham is a disgrace, and I think you have one of the worst representatives of any representative in the United States, and I don’t think he should run,” Trump said about the South Carolina senator at a campaign event in front of the lawmaker's home-state crowd. “I don’t think he could run for dog catcher in this state and win again. I really don’t. Other than that, I think he’s wonderful."




Phone's ringing, Dude.
 
Posts: 6245 | Location: Upstate SC | Registered: April 06, 2011Report This Post
Peace through
superior firepower
Picture of parabellum
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by SIG4EVA:
I understand it is just one poll but it is also the first one to break Trump's streak. As we have seen in past elections, the polls don't mean shit.
Then why are you referencing them? Confused

"Here's a poll which doesn't mean shit, but here's what it means..."

Confused
 
Posts: 110951 | Registered: January 20, 2000Report This Post
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I think the Donald is beginning a slow downward slide. He's embroiled in LiarGate, and no longer addressing national issues that are hurting us.

I see a Cruz - Rubio dogfight in the near future as Trump fades. Then just Cruz by July or so as people realize Rubio is mostly pretty talk. The best thing Cruz can do to help himself is pay less attention to Trump, just laugh it off and stick to solutions to our economic and Security issues.
 
Posts: 21838 | Registered: May 25, 2009Report This Post
Alienator
Picture of SIG4EVA
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
quote:
Originally posted by SIG4EVA:
I understand it is just one poll but it is also the first one to break Trump's streak. As we have seen in past elections, the polls don't mean shit.
Then why are you referencing them? Confused

"Here's a poll which doesn't mean shit, but here's what it means..."

Confused


I was merely pointing out that this is the first time in 31 polls that Trump was not on top. You can take it for what you will.


SIG556 Classic
P220 Carry SAS Gen 2 SAO
SP2022 9mm German Triple Serial
P938 SAS
P365 FDE
P322 FDE

Psalm 118:24 "This is the day which the Lord hath made; we will rejoice and be glad in it"
 
Posts: 7247 | Location: NC | Registered: March 16, 2012Report This Post
Peace through
superior firepower
Picture of parabellum
posted Hide Post
I take it to mean nothing.
 
Posts: 110951 | Registered: January 20, 2000Report This Post
Lighten up and laugh
Picture of Ackks
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I just heard a clip of Morning Joe describing a candidate to Trump and asking him who it was. He guessed himself, but it was Sanders. Oops.
 
Posts: 7934 | Registered: September 29, 2008Report This Post
Peace through
superior firepower
Picture of parabellum
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Roll Eyes

Do you guys want Hillary Clinton as president? This is what it looks like to me. Really, it does. Roll Eyes

I'm talking to you and others in this thread, Ackks.
 
Posts: 110951 | Registered: January 20, 2000Report This Post
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it seems as though many people expect 100% perfection 100% of the time from our presidential candidates. If only we could expect that from our own selves.

I am not a Trump supporter but, after much thought, see him as better than any Dem alternative. He will slip up and he will show his ass. But, he will have to be our guy if he wins the nomination.

In a perfect world, we would have a perfect world. Trump, Cruz, Rubio would have to have our full support and leave no doubt that the victory would be a mandate from the people. So much so, that even the MSM could not spin it otherwise.

Be well and clean your rifle today.
 
Posts: 21829 | Registered: October 17, 2005Report This Post
Lighten up and laugh
Picture of Ackks
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Hillary and Sanders are two of the weakest candidates the democrats have ever run. She's having health problems, is now tied with a socialist and the FBI wants to indite her.

Trump can win, but he's more of a liability than anything else at this point with his actions and he's doing it to himself. Do you honestly believe more conservatives won't stay home in the fall than they did for Romney with the things he's said and done? He's going to have a meltdown or he's going to change into something else like he said last week and drive even more conservatives to stay home. We'll see what happens, but Trump needs to knock the crap off. Again, he's doing all this to himself.
 
Posts: 7934 | Registered: September 29, 2008Report This Post
Peace through
superior firepower
Picture of parabellum
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I see you posted some words, but I don't see an answer to the question I asked you.
 
Posts: 110951 | Registered: January 20, 2000Report This Post
Lighten up and laugh
Picture of Ackks
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No, I don't want Hillary to win.
 
Posts: 7934 | Registered: September 29, 2008Report This Post
No more Mr. Nice Guy
Picture of cobrajet
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
Roll Eyes

Do you guys want Hillary Clinton as president? This is what it looks like to me. Really, it does. Roll Eyes

I'm talking to you and others in this thread, Ackks.


Of course not, if I wanted Hillary to have a chance of winning I'd be supporting Trump in the primaries.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"The problem with our Liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, it's that they know so much that isn't so." Ronald Reagan
 
Posts: 12401 | Location: Middle TN | Registered: November 20, 2012Report This Post
Banned
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by cobrajet:
quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
Roll Eyes

Do you guys want Hillary Clinton as president? This is what it looks like to me. Really, it does. Roll Eyes

I'm talking to you and others in this thread, Ackks.


Of course not, if I wanted Hillary to have a chance of winning I'd be supporting Trump in the primaries.


What do you do if Trump wins the nomination??
 
Posts: 21829 | Registered: October 17, 2005Report This Post
Peace through
superior firepower
Picture of parabellum
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by cobrajet:
Of course not, if I wanted Hillary to have a chance of winning I'd be supporting Trump in the primaries.
That's your last post in this thread.
 
Posts: 110951 | Registered: January 20, 2000Report This Post
Rule #1: Use enough gun
Picture of Bigboreshooter
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quote:
Do you honestly believe more conservatives won't stay home in the fall than they did for Romney with the things he's said and done?

Yes, I do honestly believe that Republican turnout will be higher with Trump than it was with Romney.

And I'll also wager that Trump, if he's the nominee, will get a larger percentage of the black vote than any Republican in history.



When a strong man, fully armed, guards his own house, his possessions are undisturbed. Luke 11:21


"Every nation in every region now has a decision to make.
Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists." -- George W. Bush

 
Posts: 14826 | Location: Birmingham, Alabama | Registered: February 25, 2009Report This Post
Lighten up and laugh
Picture of Ackks
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I'm honestly sorry if any of my posts upset anyone. I don't post to be an antagonist and I don't believe votes get swung in threads. I enjoy talking about what is going on.
 
Posts: 7934 | Registered: September 29, 2008Report This Post
NRA Benefactor
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quote:
Originally posted by Bigboreshooter:
quote:
Do you honestly believe more conservatives won't stay home in the fall than they did for Romney with the things he's said and done?

Yes, I do honestly believe that Republican turnout will be higher with Trump than it was with Romney.

And I'll also wager that Trump, if he's the nominee, will get a larger percentage of the black vote than any Republican in history.

I agree on the Romney thing, but why would Trump get so many Black votes?
 
Posts: 21838 | Registered: May 25, 2009Report This Post
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