quote:

Originally posted by sigmonkey:
The (understanding) anatomy of the respiratory system reveals that a little ointment in the nostrils, is like lining the bank of a river with a towel, in an effort to dam the water.

The towel will get wet, but nearly all the water in the river is going to laugh at the towels.

Nostril hair, adenoids and the mucous membranes capture most pollen, dust, a lot of viral and bacterial matter, and the immune system deals with things that it can. It's why we only have a light response to most things.

But the nostrils are pretty much useless in preventing virus and bacteria from getting into the deeper part of the respiratory system.

They are only about 1% of the tracts that are actually where a virus is going to come in contact.

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Originally posted by jljones: Based upon a little common sense, most of what I have read leads me to believe that the infection count in the United States and abroad is probably much larger than reported. I'd wager to bet that the goes for the number that are deceased as well.

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Originally posted by sigfreund:
Going out of our way to comment about the concerns of others is a common way of validating our own lack of action. Very often the ones who are most vocal in ridiculing people who take protective measures know in their heart of hearts that they should be doing something themselves, but they don’t want the trouble and inconvenience. An extremely common example are the people who want private gun ownership banned because they don’t like the idea of having to defend themselves.

Is there anything the average American should be doing now? There’s no way of knowing at this time how the epidemic will progress. Will stocking up on toilet paper or bottled water be a wise move? Well, it certainly can’t hurt at any time, and the people who question why it might be a good idea don’t understand the possible consequences of a serious pandemic. Anyone who has been paying the slightest attention should know by now that this disease has already affected the supply chain of various goods and materials. What happens if things get bad enough that our local plant stops treating our water because of lack of personnel to operate it or because it can’t get the necessary chemicals to do the job?

Plus, as I’ve pointed out before, the effects of a disease on society are not limited to how they affect the individual sufferer. Whether we like it or not, how it affects the behavior of those who don’t have it is just as important, if not more so.

Then there’s the morality rate of the disease. A two percent rate, or one in 50 doesn’t sound too dangerous, but consider what that means to us and the people we know.

My small agency has 25 employees. A 2% death rate means there is a 98% chance that any specific infected individual will survive. If only 12 of those people contract the disease, however, the chance that all will survive drops to 78%, i.e., there is a 22% chance—one in five—that one will die. And then what about their families? Assuming an average family size of three, and that 36 develop the disease, the probability that at least one of those people who are relatively close to me will die increases to over 50 percent. Another way to look at a two percent mortality rate is if half of the people in my small county (~3500) develop the disease, 70 would die.
(I agree, however, that the mortality rate of COVID-19 is probably much less than two percent because there are many undiagnosed cases. But regardless of what the true rate is, we owe it to ourselves to understand what such figures mean.)

As for whether people are “panicking,” I’m reminded of that movie line, “You keep saying that word, but I don’t believe it means what you think it means.” We have seen nothing close to a panicked reaction to the disease in this country thus far. If the BS news media is hyping the situation in an effort to keep their viewers enthralled (and tuned in), people who are equating concern and precautions with panic aren’t helping either.

“I am prudent, you are fearful, he is panicking.”

quote:

Originally posted by 46and2:
First, know that I'm not even remotely Anti-Vax.

But it just occurred to me that I can't even remember the last time I've had a Flu shot. I've no idea, off hand. It's been years. Many years.

Is that dumb? Am I wrong or being foolish? I'm a healthy dude, about 50 now, pretty fit for a non-professional athlete, etc. But I don't get sick much. Thr ocasional cold or brief seasonal allergies maybe.

I'm not "making some stand", really I just never think of it or worry about it.

Should I, anyway? I guess I don't know the correct answer to that (,musing, thinking aloud).

Hmmm.

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Originally posted by Pale Horse:
A lesson I learned back in 2008 is that I don’t only need to prepare for a threat, but also for the public’s perception of that threat. Back in 2008 I had no concern that Obama was going to pass sweeping gun control. And I was 100% correct. But that didn’t matter one bit when I wanted to buy a box of 9mm. The mass fear of a gun ban turned it to mini reality for several years.

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Originally posted by ergoproxy:... what would you do without tp then? ...

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Originally posted by ZSMICHAEL:
The bears will be using rabbits. I guess some of these folks are pretty young, not remembering that toilet paper is relatively new. Sears Catalogues and corn cobs were staples in most outhouses not that long ago.

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Originally posted by Voshterkoff:

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Originally posted by RogueJSK:
We haven't really had runs on groceries around here yet, but apparently TP is going quickly?

My Costco sold a semi load of toilet paper in under two hours. Lots of things out of stock, selling more than the holiday season.

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Originally posted by 46and2:


A reasoned response, Doc. Noted and thanks.

quote:

Originally posted by ZSMICHAEL:
Sears Catalogues and corn cobs were staples in most outhouses not that long ago.