quote:

Originally posted by maladat:
It hasn't come up as much over the last few days, but for a while in this thread, the 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu pandemic was brought up as a frequent point of comparison.

The 2009 H1N1 pandemic resulted in an estimated 60 million infections and 12,469 deaths in the United States, according to the CDC.

With a bit under 400,000 confirmed cases, there have been ~12,300 reported deaths, which will pass the H1N1 estimate later today or possibly early tomorrow.

The 60 million infections from 2009 number is not confirmed cases and not comparable to the 400,000 confirmed case number.

quote:

Originally posted by BigSwede:

What this demonstrates is that a large segment of the population was never taught how to manage money. Way too many people spend every penny they earn or more than they earn. The average income in the United States in 2019 was $89, 930, yet it was also reported that most people have less than $5,000 in the bank. That tells you right there that many people have no idea how to save.

It's not the government's responsibility if you want to have seven kids when you make $20 an hour, or have $50,000 in ink on your body, or drink a case of beer a night.

I'm sorry smithnsig, hopefully he had everything in order and his family is going to be alright other than the loss of a loved one.

quote:

Originally posted by HRK:
Actually Carlson got closer to the more salient issue in this monologue when he noted (and I'm paraphrasing), "People can't go to work because of the potential for infection, but everyone is allowed to go to the grocery store. Seems like if you wanted to infect large groups of people, you'd send them all to the same place every week."

I've had that same thought and discussion, why is is safe to go to WalMart, Target, Home Depot or other certain enterprises, where there are hundreds of people, no masks, no gloves, touching everything, and yet small businesses have to close in other industries.

Some of it is political, such as the attempts to close gun stores in leftist states like CA< NJ, NY etc...

Still don't see how setting rules that would allow restaurants and bars to be open are considered a significant hazard to national health but you can go into the liquor store with 50 people and get a case of Beer and it's less of a risk.

It's bullshit... How long before lots of Americans tell government to F-Off and go back to work....

I don't think Carlson's point is very good if he's claiming people are experiencing equal or greater odds of being exposed to 'rona as a result of lockdowns. Everybody was already going to the grocery store before all this started. I used to make a minimum of 2 trips per week. To me there's no question that the number and duration of close social contacts for most people has plummeted. I'm not arguing that the economic isn't potentially devastating.

Waterbury Bob

"Our network is running at 25% of hospitalized patients require vents."

on 24 Mar, Cuomo said 23% of the NY hospital cases needed vents.

pretty close agreement.

This happened a couple miles down the road from where I'm typing. Stupid jackbooted thugs. Unfortunately these are the type of leo's that make up the norm in Colorado. The good cops are very few and far between in these parts.

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:
Like bigdeal said, positive test results mean nothing. Hell, if it were possible for everyone in the country to be tested today, there may be 150 million Americans test positive out of 330 million total population. Almost everyone on the planet is eventually going to get the Chinese Virus if they haven’t already had it.

Undercounting the number of infected individuals is inevitable without testing absolutely everyone, but there's an increasing body of evidence that it is unlikely we are undercounting to anywhere near the degree you suggest.

A small town in Italy (~3,300 people) had repeated rounds of testing every single person in the town. Active cases peaked at about 3% without about half of those asymptomatic. ( https://www.ft.com/content/0db...ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3 )

Iceland (~360,000 people) has been letting anyone who wants a test get one. At the end of last week, about 5% of the population had been tested, again, with about half being asymptomatic. ( https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01...irus-intl/index.html ) As of April 5, Iceland had performed ~28,000 tests ( ~8% of the population ) with 1,417 positives (~0.4% of the population). ( https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus )

quote:

Originally posted by bigdeal:

That's a very interesting question worth discussing with the morons in government who've set policy on how we have to live right now.

Not just grocery stores. Liquor stores. Lines for takeout. Lowes. Car Dealership Service Waiting Rooms. Gas stations.

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:
Like bigdeal said, positive test results mean nothing. Hell, if it were possible for everyone in the country to be tested today, there may be 150 million Americans test positive out of 330 million total population. Almost everyone on the planet is eventually going to get the Chinese Virus if they haven’t already had it.

Undercounting the number of infected individuals is inevitable without testing absolutely everyone, but there's an increasing body of evidence that it is unlikely we are undercounting to anywhere near the degree you suggest.

Seriously? I wasn’t suggesting anything. Wow.

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
The 60 million infections from 2009 number is not confirmed cases and not comparable to the 400,000 confirmed case number.

I am well aware, and I'm not suggesting COVID-19 is 100 times as bad as H1N1, but there is also no evidence that we are undercounting cases by a factor of 100 to get the number of COVID-19 infections into the same ballpark as H1N1 infections.

The takeaway is that although it's not as bad as the confirmed cases make it look, it's almost certainly a lot worse than H1N1.

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:
Seriously? I wasn’t suggesting anything. Wow.

You said "positive test results mean nothing."

That's only true if we might be undertesting by orders of magnitude.

Which you then raise as a possibility: "if it were possible for everyone in the country to be tested today, there may be 150 million Americans test positive."

Unless your objection is that I should have said you "explicitly stated" rather than "suggested," I don't see the problem.

There's evidence we aren't undertesting that much, so while the positive test results aren't perfect, they give us SOME information.

quote:

Originally posted by rusbro:
I don't think Carlson's point is very good if he's claiming people are experiencing equal or greater odds of being exposed to 'rona as a result of lockdowns. Everybody was already going to the grocery store before all this started. I used to make a minimum of 2 trips per week. To me there's no question that the number and duration of close social contacts for most people has plummeted. I'm not arguing that the economic isn't potentially devastating.

Agreed, they were also going to bars,restaurants and sitting down for drinks and or dinners were they not pre governmental control policies?

We know the reason food stores are open, nobody has enough stores of MRE's to last months if the food supply was shut down to prevent all contact. Riots would ensue, the government doesn't close them because the government can't replicate the service nor has the resources to control the mobs that would revolt.

Point is, if you're safe going to Home Depot with 5000 other people over the weekend (consider the virus lives for days, and the total number of people that go through a large store over two to three days exposure) your odds of touching something that has the COVID19 virus on it, is greater, IMHO than sitting at a restaurant with maybe 500 people going through it on a weekend.

What does a restaurant expose people to that massive numbers going in and out of Menards, Lowes, Home Depot, ACE, doesn't.

Food can't be the obvious answer, otherwise all drive through, delivery and take out of food products would be stopped.

Either no contact or smart contact, just like when AIDs hit, precautions were there to avoid contracting it.

The difference is that it moved from personal responsibility to Governmental Oversight and Control..

Still, empty roads are nice for a early evening ride.... And my wife likes being able to have her after work cocktail ready at 4 vs 6pm

and add in people who have had a mild case going back 90+ days and have recovered

could EASILY be in the millions

-------------------------------------

quote:

Originally posted by Ryanp225:
This happened a couple miles down the road from where I'm typing. Stupid jackbooted thugs. Unfortunately these are the type of leo's that make up the norm in Colorado. The good cops are very few and far between in these parts.

This right here is the stuff that gives people a bad taste for government and law enforcement. I have spent my fair share of time behind a badge, as a Deputy, while I was in college and a little bit after. This would just not have even crossed our minds to cuff someone for this. If you can't diffuse a situation of a family playing in an empty park, then you need your badge taken away and handed a box of crayons. Because your abilities as a LEO are for shit. What makes it even worse is there were 3 chances for them to find some common sense ( 1 chance for each officer). I would bet good money that at least one of them said, "We are only following orders."

The only information positive test results give us right now is justification for more people to panic. Like I said, eventually almost everyone will get this virus. You’re not telling us anything new maladat.

Well we are 3/7ths through DEATH WEEK 3.0 and they are already posturing and saying we might need another 10 days to kill everyone.

Give 'em enough guesses and they will eventually hit on the winner for everyone, I suppose.

quote:

Originally posted by Sig209:
and add in people who have had a mild case going back 90+ days and have recovered

could EASILY be in the millions

-------------------------------------

And people who've not been tested who have no symptoms since you're not allowed to get a test unless you have the symptoms.

My neighbors son came home from some third world country where he played pro ball, season cancelled, he was lucky to get a flight from Buttcrackistania to London to LGA, then a bus to a connection at Newark to FL.

You'd think that would be a qualification for testing right, 3rd world Eastern Europe, flights to NYC, bus through the city to NJ, waiting for flights then to FL, right through the hot spot. DR said no, no symptoms no test.

it could be that it's 298.8 million without the virus, free and clean, but we're using tainted numbers to project totals.

If you only test those at risk, you'll get high numbers of infected positives, like walking through a cow field at night, you'll likely step in a pie, or two...

As I understand it, the swab test being given now indicates whether you have the virus at the moment of the test. It doesn't indicate (or not) if you ever had it

Once we get the serum testing going (I think it has started in some places), we will identify people that ever had the China virus and have antibodies.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


here is something from Cuomo that made me mad

https://www.breitbart.com/heal...-new-york-hospitals/

The use of hydroxychloroquine has been “anecdotally” positive for patients with the coronavirus, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said during a press briefing Monday.

Cuomo:

There are a lot of people who are relying on this, who were relying on it. People with lupus, etc. The tests in the hospital, they won’t say that they are… they’re too short a period of time to get a scientific report. You know, hospital administrators, doctors, want to give… have a significant data set before they give a formal opinion. Anecdotally, you’ll get suggestions that it has been effective, but we don’t have any official data yet from a hospital, or a quote unquote study, which will take weeks if not months before you get an official study.

There has been anecdotal evidence that it is promising, that’s why we’re going ahead. Doctors have to prescribe, but there are some people who have pre-existing conditions where it doesn’t work, or they’re taking medication that’s not consistent with this treatment. But anecdotally its been positive.

xxxxxxxxxxxx


We have the crisis in front of us now. It is absurd for the hospitals not to give at least a "quick look" report.

Back in my professional life, when it was said something was "anecdotal", that meant there was no proof, no results, nothing to hang your hat on. Just stories that were being passed around. Things that would be very risky to take action on.


anecdotal - based on or consisting of reports or observations of usually unscientific observers

in my day job -- medical device -- we have lots of exposure to medical studies

the field has become more and more 'evidence based' over the last 20 years

what constitutes 'good evidence' can be intensely debated. anecdotes don't USUALLY hold water but in this unprecedented situation we are trying to figure it out on the fly

there are standards used to 'grade' the 'quality' of academic rigor applied to the conduct of a medical study

one example is this:

-----------------

Levels of Evidence from Sackett*

Level Type of evidence

I Large RCTs (Randomized Control Trial) with clear cut results

II Small RCTs with unclear results

III Cohort and case-control studies

IV Historical cohort or case-control studies

V Case series, studies with no controls
*Adapted from Sackett DL. Rules of evidence and clinical recommendations on the use of antithrombotic agents. Chest 1989;95:2S–4S

-------------

So one would say -- 'the study is a Level 2 study ...' and use that as a rough benchmark to assess the 'importance / validity' of its data

its a complicated process and it's incredible the arguments I have seen clinicians engage in over very minute details

it's not surprising the effectiveness of many of these Covid therapies are being challenged -- but in this unprecedented situation they are willing to try things they otherwise might not

----------------------------------------------------------------

quote:

Originally posted by Rightwire:


What this demonstrates is that a large segment of the population was never taught how to manage money. Way too many people spend every penny they earn or more than they earn. The average income in the United States in 2019 was $89, 930, yet it was also reported that most people have less than $5,000 in the bank. That tells you right there that many people have no idea how to save.

It's not the government's responsibility if you want to have seven kids when you make $20 an hour, or have $50,000 in ink on your body, or drink a case of beer a night.

You left out a very important word... 'Household.'

Boss