quote:

Originally posted by feersum dreadnaught:
Interesting...

today's revision. Does it look like the modeler's are just pulling this out of their asses?

There is a saying - "All models are wrong. Some are useful." These look wrong, and approaching malfeasance.

quote:

Originally posted by sigfreund:
Opinion piece from The Wall Street Journal. Based on what I’ve read about other medical issues over the years, this is not the first time the WHO has caused more harm than good.

@ 15-16 years ago, as a night shift worker, I was interested to learn that the WHO issued a warning that working nights was a carcingogen. At the time I blindly accepted the warning and shared it with co-workers based on nothing more than the prestigious worldly WHO that issued it and their nebulous explanation of melatonin levels...but some years later I started to question this warning, as well as the true motives of the WHO, or the influences affecting their recommendations.

Sigfreund, I do enjoy reading the WSJ but don't have a subscription, and, often, the linked articles are blocked by a paywall, so I greatly appreciate the time you take in posting their articles.

quote:

Originally posted by feersum dreadnaught:

today's revision. Does it look like the modeler's are just pulling this out of their asses?

There is a saying - "All models are wrong. Some are useful." These look wrong, and approaching malfeasance.

It doesn't matter anyway. Climate Change models have shown the world will end before COVID-19 spreads through the world.

quote:

Does it look like the modeler's are just pulling this out of their asses?

There is a saying - "All models are wrong. Some are useful." These look wrong, and approaching malfeasance.

Yes.
There is another saying - "Garbage in, garbage out."

I'm wondering if we are carrying on about noise. Maybe SDY or another number cruncher could weigh in with a yay or nay.

The US has 338,866 confirmed cases. I'm guessing we are still only testing folks that show up at the hospital. That would be 20% of the total cases from what the 'spurts say.
338,866*5 = 1,694,330 cases

US population is ~330,000,000
1,694,330/330,000,000= .0051343333333

How reliable is .005% to use as a model?

NY is what % of the population? Will the NY numbers map to big cities or will fly over country numbers be different?

quote:

US population is ~330,000,000
1,694,330/330,000,000= .0051343333333
.0051343333333 x 100 = .51343333333%
How reliable is .005% to use as a model?

Ahem...

quote:

Originally posted by feersum dreadnaught:


and FYI:

Fauci Fun Facts: Dr. Fauci’s AIDS Predictions were also WAY OFF THE MARK

** Dr. Fauci claimed that AIDS might be transmissible by “routine close contact.” (May 5, 1983, issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association). (Michael Fumento, The Myth of Heterosexual AIDS, p. 237).

** Dr. Fauci claimed that ten percent of the HIV/AIDS infected would be heterosexual—more than two and half times the rate – four percent – it actually was.

** On February 15, 1987, then conservative columnist George Will said to Dr. Fauci that HIV/AIDS was principally a homosexual affliction and that it was not exploding and Fauci quickly replied, “That’s not correct. The percentage of individuals who have gotten AIDS by heterosexual transmission is about four percent now. It is projected that that number will be up in 1991 to about 10 percent.”

This ten percent claim was a standard talking point of his. “We expect 10 percent of U.S. AIDS to be heterosexually transmitted by 1991,” he said, citing, Scientific References, Group I: The Epidemiology of AIDS.

HIV/AIDS in the heterosexual community has never been more than four percent.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.c...s-also-way-off-mark/

Listening to former FEMA director and current radio talk show host Michael Brown, he recently played an audio clip of comments Dr. Fauci made during the H1N1 outbreak, which has some similarities to the current COVID-19 outbreak. His recommendations for dealing with the H1N1 were generally very similar to his recommendations in dealing with COVID-19 (wash hands, clean surfaces, stay home when sick, isolate those who are sick)...with one glaring difference...he noted that people couldn't stop going to work or school or living their lives.

quote:

Originally posted by springnr:
Fingers out ran my my brain, didn't need the % sign, thanks.

Happens all the time.

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:
Bad news: Not only has the share of critical cases now risen to 5.9 percent (ca. 3,400 out of 58,000), but we got nearly 6,200 newly established infections yesterday again after the sub-5,000 numbers of previous days - though still on a generally downward trend from the peak of 6,900. Good news: The German Hospital Society estimates that number of ICU beds has now increased from 28,000 to nearly 40,000 nationally, three quarters of which equipped with ventilators by reactivating old devices, procuring new ones, and repurposing some from post-OP recovery rooms etc. Free bed capacity thus still 15-20,000. By now we're starting to take in patients from the Netherlands, which also seem to run into capacity limits; their policy has been similar to the UK's, first letting it run before turning about and also imposing restrictions.

In a bit of a d'uh moment, it just struck me that the slight anomaly of critical cases exceeding the international average is probably because of those we're taking in from other countries; the medical statistics say nothing about patients' nationalities, after all. The individual reports about transfers of half a dozen or so at a time have been deceiving about the total, which is quite substantial by now - as of today, it's 130 French, 44 Italian and 37 Dutch cases. Except for the five military hospitals, it's organized at the state level and seems somewhat fluid. 58 places offered were not taken up, in part because the number of serious cases in Italy is dropping so that no further transfers are currently planned from there. OTOH North Rhine-Westphalia stated today that its hospitals are currently offering a total of 107 ICU beds for patients from the neighboring Netherlands.

Cautiously encouraging numbers of new cases from the last few days; yesterday's were the lowest since 25 March, though the weekend effect may be in play and I'm expecting a bit of a rebound. Debate is increasing about if and how to ease restrictions after the current horizon of 19 April, though the government is stressing it would depend on various criteria being met rather than fixed dates. Seeing quite a few people with masks now, so hopefully new infections will continue to drop even as life picks back up. Austria instituted a requirement to wear masks in markets and public transport (and had them handed out at supermarkets to make it possible) and has depressed new case numbers sharply to the point where they plan to reopen smaller non-essential shops right after Easter, and the rest probably in May.

China forces Italy to buy same coronavirus supplies it had donated to Beijing a few weeks ago

https://www.foxnews.com/world/...us-supplies-buy-back

China's efforts to rebrand itself as a global leader focused on humanitarian relief amid the coronavirus outbreak has hit a major snag and perhaps revealed Beijing's true intentions behind their public relations blitz.

After telling the world that it would donate masks, face guards and testing equipment to Italy, China quietly backtracked and sold the Mediterranean country desperately-needed medical equipment, according to a report.

What's worse is that the personal protective equipment (PPE) China forced Italy to buy was actually the same PPE Italy donated to China before coronavirus rushed its own shores and killed nearly 16,000 people.

I hope China is punished for their bullshit!

Alright, all you heathen sons o' bitches. Let the spirit move you.

An incantation, to awaken you from your spell:

quote:

Originally posted by 6guns:
I hope China is punished for their bullshit!

Hell yeah.

So now it's 5G that's part of the problem

Link

Woody Harrelson Is Latest Celeb Sharing Coronavirus 5G Conspiracy Theory
By Honey German
Apr 6, 2020

You may have seen people posting wild conspiracy theories linking 5G networks to the coronavirus pandemic — and now those theories are even being spread by celebrities such as Woody Harrelson. The theories ranged from 5G signals causing the virus, to the contagion being started as a cover-up for health maladies related to the networks. And the conspiracy theories are quickly reaching the masses in parts to celebrities sharing them with millions of people on social media.

Woody Harrelson recently posted a report “about the negative effects of 5G” and its supposed role in the coronavirus pandemic to his more than 2 million Instagram followers. “I haven’t fully vetted it I find it very interesting,” he wrote of the report claiming that “5G radiation” is “exacerbating” the contagion’s spread and making it more lethal. That post got 25,500 likes and a later one of a video showing Chinese campaigners attacking phone towers there got viewed more than 300,000 times.

Singer M.I.A. has also repeatedly tweeted about her fears over 5G — recently saying that even if it does not cause COVID-19, it “can confuse or slow the body down in healing process as body is learning to cope with new signals wavelength s frequency etc @ same time as Cov. “People in England are setting fire to it. They should just turn it off till after the pandemic!” she wrote.

Attacks on on UK cellphone towers, fires at towers in Birmingham, Liverpool and Belfast have all been blamed on the conspiracy theories, UK officials have said. UK Cabinet Minister Michael Gove damned the tales as “dangerous nonsense” while noting that the damaged phone lines are crucial for emergency services battling the pandemic.

Professor Stephen Powis, the UK’s national medical director, called the theories “outrageous” and “absolute and utter rubbish" and Dr. Michael Head of the University of Southampton also told the Evening Standard that such “ignorance” could prove dangerous. “Conspiracy theorists are a public health danger who once read a Facebook page,” he told the Evening Standard.

why are the models changing dramatically ?

Just 2 weeks ago NY estimated they would have over a million active cases a few days from now.

Now it looks like NY will have about 10% of that.

NY has 106,024 active cases now

In recent days, NY sees about 10,000 new cases every day.

But NY is also now seeing 1,500 to 1,800 recovered every day

and about 600 deaths per day

put all that together, and that implies NY active cases will be (very roughly) 130,000 on 8 Apr

Speaking of Joe Biden's good buddies in China...

Trump administration weighs legal action over alleged Chinese hoarding of PPE

Leading US manufacturers of medical safety gear told the White House that China prohibited them from exporting their products from the country as the coronavirus pandemic mounted — even as Beijing was trying to “corner the world market” in personal protective equipment, The Post has learned.

Now, the Trump administration is weighing legal action against China over its alleged actions, a lawyer for President Trump said Sunday. “In criminal law, compare this to the levels that we have for murder,” said Jenna Ellis, a senior legal adviser to Trump’s re-election campaign. “People are dying. When you have intentional, cold-blooded, premeditated action like you have with China, this would be considered first-degree murder.” Ellis said the options under consideration include filing a complaint with the European Court of Human Rights or working “through the United Nations.”

Executives from 3M and Honeywell told US officials that the Chinese government in January began blocking exports of N95 respirators, booties, gloves and other supplies produced by their factories in China, according to a senior White House official. China paid the manufacturers their standard wholesale rates, but prohibited the vital items from being sold to anyone else, the official said.

Around the same time that China cracked down on PPE exports, official data posted online shows that it imported 2.46 billion pieces of “epidemic prevention and control materials” between Jan. 24 and Feb. 29, the White House official said. The gear, valued at nearly $1.2 billion, included more than 2 billion masks and more than 25 million “protective clothing” items that came from countries in the European Union, as well as Australia, Brazil and Cambodia, the official said.

“Data from China’s own customs agency points to an attempt to corner the world market in PPE like gloves, goggles, and masks through massive increased purchases — even as China, the world’s largest PPE manufacturer, was restricting exports,” the official said.

Last week, Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to order St. Paul, Minnesota-based 3M to prioritize production of N95 respirators for the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Michael Wessell, a founding member of the federal US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, confirmed the situation and said the Chinese maneuvering had left American hospitals “starved of PPE to fight this crisis.” “We understand that China has engaged in policies to try and not only develop its own capabilities, but to do so at expense of producers around the world,” said Wessell, formerly a top staffer to ex-US Rep. Dick Gephardt (D-Missouri).

“At a time when demand was rising to deal with the crisis, China was marshaling all of the products for its own use.” Wessell said that “some of China’s actions are probably illegal, but to bring cases when you’re in the middle of the crisis does little good for the patients who are in the hospital on ventilators — and might not have been there had they had access to PPE.”

Wessell also said that while China had recently begun easing exports of PPE, “they’re using it for soft power, essentially saying it’s a humanitarian gesture to try to curry goodwill with American people when some of the problems we’re facing are the direct result of Chinese policies.”

Christian Whiton, a former senior diplomacy and trade adviser to the George W. Bush and Trump administrations, described Chinese control of PPE as “political warfare.”
“It looks like a coordinated effort between the Chinese government and industry where they used to be nothing but exporters of this stuff but now they turned around and they’re importing it while banning all exports,” said Whiton, now a senior fellow for strategy and trade at the Center for National Interest.

“What is most interesting to me, when we get through this crisis I think there’s rage, not just concern, but rage in Congress about China and from the American people that China is culpable one way or the other,” he added.

Honeywell said in a statement: “For the majority of the first quarter, China was experiencing the most acute effects of the COVID-19 crisis, so all of the masks from the facility in question were utilized for local consumption. Production at the facility in question remained under Honeywell management’s control throughout the coronavirus outbreak.”

3M did not respond to requests for comment Sunday, but in a statement issued last week, noted that it had just “secured approval from China to export to the U.S. 10 million N95 respirators manufactured by 3M in China.” Steven Bannon, a former White House chief strategist under Trump and the host of the podcast “War Room: Pandemic,” said the behavior of the Chinese government was equivalent to a “biological Chernobyl.”

“The same people that understood this virus had human-to-human transmission and was going to be a pandemic were at the same time vacuuming up every piece of PPE from the US, Brazil and Europe,” said Bannon, who formerly lived in Shanghai when he ran on an online gaming company. “They’re at war with the West. This story shows the world what Chinese citizens are dealing with,” he said.

The Chinese Embassy in Washington, DC, didn’t respond to a request for comment.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/05/...ese-hoarding-of-ppe/

Weren't about 40% of the masks the NE Patriots flew in FROM CHINA found to be defective?

quote:

Originally posted by HRK:
So now it's 5G that's part of the problem

Link

Woody Harrelson Is Latest Celeb Sharing Coronavirus 5G Conspiracy Theory
By Honey German
Apr 6, 2020

You may have seen people posting wild conspiracy theories linking 5G networks to the coronavirus pandemic — and now those theories are even being spread by celebrities such as Woody Harrelson. The theories ranged from 5G signals causing the virus, to the contagion being started as a cover-up for health maladies related to the networks. And the conspiracy theories are quickly reaching the masses in parts to celebrities sharing them with millions of people on social media.

Woody Harrelson recently posted a report “about the negative effects of 5G” and its supposed role in the coronavirus pandemic to his more than 2 million Instagram followers. “I haven’t fully vetted it I find it very interesting,” he wrote of the report claiming that “5G radiation” is “exacerbating” the contagion’s spread and making it more lethal. That post got 25,500 likes and a later one of a video showing Chinese campaigners attacking phone towers there got viewed more than 300,000 times.

Singer M.I.A. has also repeatedly tweeted about her fears over 5G — recently saying that even if it does not cause COVID-19, it “can confuse or slow the body down in healing process as body is learning to cope with new signals wavelength s frequency etc @ same time as Cov. “People in England are setting fire to it. They should just turn it off till after the pandemic!” she wrote.

Attacks on on UK cellphone towers, fires at towers in Birmingham, Liverpool and Belfast have all been blamed on the conspiracy theories, UK officials have said. UK Cabinet Minister Michael Gove damned the tales as “dangerous nonsense” while noting that the damaged phone lines are crucial for emergency services battling the pandemic.

Professor Stephen Powis, the UK’s national medical director, called the theories “outrageous” and “absolute and utter rubbish" and Dr. Michael Head of the University of Southampton also told the Evening Standard that such “ignorance” could prove dangerous. “Conspiracy theorists are a public health danger who once read a Facebook page,” he told the Evening Standard.

I saw a couple pics of burned tower last week, one of my guys told me that this "theory" was making the rounds on social media .....

If people are this stupid....please let the C19 win

If they believe this I suggest a new form of testing....dunking stool, if they float they don't have the C19 if they don't float...well...sorry, they had the C19 and would have drowned in their own fluids anyway

paging Mr. Comet...please come to the white curtesy phone

harrelson has been doubling up on his weed before it goes bad...

springnr,

I suspect you made a bad assumption

"I'm guessing we are still only testing folks that show up at the hospital"

As best I understand it, testing is happening widely including from doctors' offices and in parking lots.

So the number of U.S. confirmed is 338,866

(they tested positive)

Then we hear a lot that 15 to 20 % of the confirmed need hospitalization.

One of the big mysteries right now is "how many total China virus cases have there been in the U.S.?"

We may have lots of people who got it, it was mild, and they have recovered. Many others may have it now, it is mild, and they will recover.

I don't think we know. If we knew that number we could make much better decisions.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


related number

Cuomo said there were 16,479 people hospitalized (NY) on 4 April

On 4 April there were 99,446 active cases in NY

16479 / 99446 = 17%