SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)Go | New | Find | Notify | Tools | Reply | |
Void Where Prohibited |
Weren't about 40% of the masks the NE Patriots flew in FROM CHINA found to be defective? "If Gun Control worked, Chicago would look like Mayberry, not Thunderdome" - Cam Edwards | |||
|
Telecom Ronin |
I saw a couple pics of burned tower last week, one of my guys told me that this "theory" was making the rounds on social media ..... If people are this stupid....please let the C19 win   If they believe this I suggest a new form of testing....dunking stool, if they float they don't have the C19 if they don't float...well...sorry, they had the C19 and would have drowned in their own fluids anyway paging Mr. Comet...please come to the white curtesy phone | |||
|
Member |
harrelson has been doubling up on his weed before it goes bad... | |||
|
| wishing we were congress |
springnr, I suspect you made a bad assumption "I'm guessing we are still only testing folks that show up at the hospital" As best I understand it, testing is happening widely including from doctors' offices and in parking lots. So the number of U.S. confirmed is 338,866 (they tested positive) Then we hear a lot that 15 to 20 % of the confirmed need hospitalization. One of the big mysteries right now is "how many total China virus cases have there been in the U.S.?" We may have lots of people who got it, it was mild, and they have recovered. Many others may have it now, it is mild, and they will recover. I don't think we know. If we knew that number we could make much better decisions. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx related number Cuomo said there were 16,479 people hospitalized (NY) on 4 April On 4 April there were 99,446 active cases in NY 16479 / 99446 = 17% | |||
|
| Lawyers, Guns and Money  |
I'm not predicting anything... but if one good thing could come of this it would be if Chinese citizens stood up and over threw the CCP. "Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown "The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor | |||
|
Ammoholic |
I think PDJT, should do the same thing. Oh wait, nevermind. Jesse Sic Semper Tyrannis | |||
|
| wishing we were congress |
Good news from Cuomo today: Cuomo said the total number of hospitalizations, ICU admissions and daily intubations are down, which "suggest a possible flattening of the curve." While New York may have reached the apex of coronavirus infections, the governor added, what happens next "still depends on what we do." Also, the state's health care system "is at maximum capacity today," according to the governor. "The staff cannot work any harder. And staying at this level is problematic." | |||
|
| Gracie Allen is my personal savior! |
Cute. | |||
|
| Ammoholic |
People started recognizing, it's not just the flu and changed their actions (as well as being forced to). Small changes to behavior make huge changes to the outcome of things like this that grow exponentially. Like if China had been honest, accepted help, and locked shit down early. We wouldn't have the worldwide crisis if they took early action. People are coming around, if individuals had taken action in the US to stop unnecessary trips in public and practiced social distancing earlier, we'd have even less cases. Instead we have governor's making illegal proclamations about what is allowed and not (see paddle boarder guy). Even the spring breaker who famously said "if I get corana, I get corona," has apologized. Each tiny preventative action has a huge effective on the final numbers. That is why numbers and projections are changing so much. It's a moving target, as inputs change and data improves, so does the projections and confidence intervals.  Jesse Sic Semper Tyrannis | |||
|
safe & sound |
^^^^^^ Oooooooorrrrrrrrr, the projections were simply wild ass guesses that completely missed the mark. But don't worry, they can take credit for it either way. | |||
|
| Ammoholic |
a1abdj, Reread the last sentence. Garbage in, garbage out. Better the information, the better the confidence in a projection. If we really want to make a good projection, we should wait until June to do so. We will have much better data at that point and the confidence intervals will be much smaller. Until then, let's do nothing, since right now we don't have the data. It will be much easier to predict that way. Jesse Sic Semper Tyrannis | |||
|
Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie |
^^^^ I thought we were told even if we did everything perfectly, we would still have 100,000 deaths. And you're basically admitting that the information and data we have been using was garbage. So we used garbage information to justify complete economic devastation and financial ruin for millions of people? ~Alan Acta Non Verba NRA Life Member (Patron) God, Family, Guns, Country Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan "Once there was only dark. If you ask me, light is winning." ~Rust Cohle | |||
|
| Ammoholic |
Balzé, of course the data is garbage, especially given the lies from China combined with information from countries that have different societies and different healthcare systems. It starts off a barely educated guess, and gets more reliable with more data. I am in no way qualified to make policy decisions, and I'd hate to be tasked with it. There is and has been enough information for a long time to say this should be taken seriously though. Beyond that, we will not know what the correct course of action was until it's over, and we will not fully know how our preventative actions actions affected the outcome. In a case like this with my limited knowledge, I'd say it's best to err on the side of caution. As an individual, I changed my actions months ago. I don't know the answers, and I don't envy PDJT having to make his best guesses for our country, but I trust him. Jesse Sic Semper Tyrannis | |||
|
Member |
May I add: Figures lie and liars figure. _____________________ Be careful what you tolerate. You are teaching people how to treat you. | |||
|
Member |
Winner winner chicken dinner. ——————————————— The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God. Psalm 14:1 | |||
|
| Freethinker |
Interesting idea that I haven’t ever seen raised, either in connection with the pandemic or in the past. I admit I was astonished by the fall of the Evil Empire (USSR) and would have confidently predicted that it wasn’t going to happen in my lifetime (if ever). It seems even less likely to happen in China, though, for a couple of reasons. One is something I probably first heard when I was in grade school and would no doubt be considered “racist” in some way now, and that’s the (supposed, at least) traditional Chinese respect for tradition and authority. The Nationalists and Communists seemed to falsify that notion to a degree, but that may have been abetted somewhat by the Japanese invasion of the country. A stronger reason to doubt that the Chinese are going to rise up against the regime, though, is that they’ve had greater motivation to do so in the past than now without making any such attempt. The “Great Leap Forward” and the Cultural Revolution were horrible times that were much more clearly the fault of the leadership than this pandemic. I’m not very well informed about current conditions in the country, I readily admit, but it seems to me that the standard of living and life in general isn’t that bad for the average Chinese, unlike conditions in the Soviet Union before its collapse. As for political repression, that’s something people have gotten accustomed to countless times, and especially if they were born into such a system. As I say, I’ve been wrong before about major political movements, but I would be very surprised if any significant changes result from COVID-19. ► 6.4/93.6 “Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something.” — Plato | |||
|
Nullus Anxietas |
Still won't really make the case, as the argument would logically fail as a post hoc (*). It's a reasonable hypothesis, it's even falsifiable (**), but only a hypothesis. Unless we were to take two essentially identical populations, have enforced social distancing in one and allow the other to carry on normally, then compare the outcomes: We can't really know. Yes, I know: "It only makes sense that..." But, still... (*) Post hoc ergo propter hoc, or "this follows that." The seminal example being "The sun rises after the cock crows, therefor the cock crowing causes the sun to rise." (**) Falsifiability is the assertion that for any hypothesis to have credence, it must be inherently disprovable before it can become accepted as a scientific hypothesis or theory. "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe "If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher | |||
|
| Member |
Sorry for the delayed response, went to bring in the trash can and ended up spinning on the bike for 30 minutes. Agreed, and we need antivirus testing too. 338,866/330,000,000 = .1% of the US population, according to the hard numbers we have at hand? A far cry from 40 to 60% of the population infected required to reach herd immunity. ========================= In other dismal news, which should be part of the conversation about ventilators... In this short video Dr. Mike Hansen an ICU lung doc from South Dakota, says only 14% of patients that end up on ventilators survive. Do Ventilators Save COVID-19 Patient's Lives? | |||
|
Member |
I would agree, based on the horde of rude Chinese tourists I have seen on my recent trips abroad. _________________________________________________________________________ “A man’s treatment of a dog is no indication of the man’s nature, but his treatment of a cat is. It is the crucial test. None but the humane treat a cat well.” -- Mark Twain, 1902 | |||
|
Funny Man |
If Sweden stays the course we could have a pretty good data set among the Nordic countries. Sweden is letting it run it course while Denmark is fining citizens for going outside. Slight population difference but very similar otherwise in metrics that impact virus infections and deaths. ______________________________ “I'd like to know why well-educated idiots keep apologizing for lazy and complaining people who think the world owes them a living.” ― John Wayne | |||
|
| Powered by Social Strata | Page 1 ... 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 ... 1206 |
 | Please Wait. Your request is being processed... |
|
SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)© SIGforum 2024