The IHME projection for hospital beds was very high.

I am still tracking the IMHE prediction for deaths. We will have a better understanding of that part of the model most likely after the next 7 days. So far it is not unreasonable. My attention is on NY.

The IHME prediction for ventilators may be in the ballpark. IHME predicted 6095 to 12748 ventilators needed by NY at peak.

de Blasio said NYC alone would need 5,000 ventilators about Tuesday 7 April.

Cuomo predicted NY would need 40,000 ventilators at peak. At the moment that looks way off.

Predicting hospital beds and ventilators gets tricky. It is not just the specific daily number of "active" virus infected. Patients at the hospital stay in the hospital for varying lengths of time. Likewise those who need ventilators stay on the ventilators for varying lengths of time. So for any given day, you have to account for what happened in the previous weeks. And estimate how fast the prior patients will come off the resources.

We have generally heard 15 to 20 % of the identified infected need hospitalization. And 3 to 5 % need ventilators. At least that is what I have read.

Let's all hope NY gets thru with minimal losses.

quote:

Originally posted by midwest guy:

quote:

Originally posted by WaterburyBob:

It's possible ...

So your theory is blown up because this COVID is not seen in children presenting serious mortality!!!

There was a 6 week old here that died from Covid 19....so, there’s that

quote:

Originally posted by cgode:

quote:

Originally posted by midwest guy:

quote:

Originally posted by WaterburyBob:

It's possible ...

So your theory is blown up because this COVID is not seen in children presenting serious mortality!!!

There was a 6 week old here that died from Covid 19....so, there’s that

Nope....more bullshit

I stand corrected....thanks brother! Stay safe

The IHME model just released has a drastic downgrade of total resources and total deaths (down by 2/3) in Texas, and has moved the estimated peak day up by almost three weeks since the 4/1 projection.

Yep Colorado changed a bunch too.

^^ I understand why they have to do it to be honest, but that red-shaded "zone of uncertainty" kinda gets up my nose.

The Florida graph has changed dramatically since yesterday. The peak yesterday was May 3rd and the peak today is April 21st. Yesterday's graph showed this stopping around June 15th and today it shows June 1st. Fascinating that the model says we'll need 3,500 beds today, yet we only have 1,600 currently hospitalized. On April 17th, we are projected to have 222 deaths per day. The 95% certain range, however, is 13 to 1,053 deaths.

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:
Yeah, the after action report of 'truth' vs 'TEOTW projections' is going to be interesting...

Reality is we won't know until we are out of the storm. All I can say is I hope worst case scenario was wrong. If we go through all this and it wasn't worth it, I'll be beyond pissed. Unfortunately there will never be a way to know for sure if our actions were prudent, excessive or if just right. I trust PDJT has more information than I do, and know he wouldn't take these actions to wreck our economy if it wasn't needed.

Prayers for all on health and financial well being.

quote:

Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
It's interesting how some people are barely affected by the virus while others get hit severely.

Here's my wildly speculative theory, with no data to support it:
Since this is a Corona Virus just like the common cold, it's possible that it is similar enough in its makeup to a few previous viruses that some people actually have some level of antibodies for it.

If you were lucky enough to have had a cold from one of those similar viruses, you have some level of protection. If you never had the similar virus, you have nothing and you get hit hard.

It's possible ...

I don't know. I heard a virologist say the "viral load" you get can make a big difference. For example, there's a big diff between inhaling thousands of droplets from a sneeze from someone highly infected vs. touching a hard surface that was contaminated 3 days ago and rubbing your eye, in which case the virus will greatly diminished in number and degraded in viability.

quote:

Originally posted by feersum dreadnaught:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily

Interesting to see the data and the projections diverge.

This will be the last time I update the actual to the Cuomo 24 Mar projection.


We are getting real data coming in fast now. Back on 24 Mar the number of NY confirmed was doubling every 3 days. Cuomo said they would need 40,000 respirators. We will probably see this week what the real need peak will be.

The number of NY confirmed is now doubling about every 6 days. (A much slower growth rate)





At the end of 5 Apr there were 123,160 confirmed NY cases with 106,024 active cases

Sdy, you realize he changed his predictions around the 26/27th right?

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
Sdy, you realize he changed his predictions around the 26/27th right?

Don’t leave us hanging.
Did his new projection, project more or less?

Back then he said 4-5 days. Now actual is 5-6 days. Have not heard anything since the first time he revised it down.

quote:

you realize he changed his predictions around the 26/27th right?

yes I know

But when Cuomo made his 24 Mar projections that drove the 40,000 ventilators estimate. I wanted to show how much actual would differ from 24 Mar projections. It might give a general idea of how many ventilators would really be needed.

And would show how early projections matched what really happened.

I've noted before I wasn't criticizing Cuomo because when he made his first prediction, the confirmed rate was doubling every 3 days.

The new IHME predictions for NY deaths hasn't changed much from the previous.





The lower bound went up from about 10k to 12k.

Mean total dropped down from 16,261 to 15,618

The solid line shows they are filling in the real numbers as they come in.

quote:

Originally posted by feersum dreadnaught:

quote:

Originally posted by Modern Day Savage:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by feersum dreadnaught:
Interesting...
Just curious, before I push this chart out to others...do you know which model is being used for the projected data?

IHME. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Ya know where we're headed with this, right? If over the next couple weeks the actual numbers turn out to be exponentially less than the 'experts' projections, the ass wipes we've had to endure for the past month are going to take a victory lap claiming their quarantining the country has been spectacularly successful without pausing for one moment to consider the opposite might actually be true (i.e. they were spectacularly wrong from the very beginning). In two weeks we're going to find out if....

1) The experts were right, or,
2) We the people have been totally scammed, played, and screwed over.

^^^. You know that’s what’s coming. The pseudo-shelter-in-place-worked! It worked I tell ya! In other words, bite the pillow America, they’re going in dry.

i look at the large picture of the australian beach that i'm not quoting here and would not hesitate to make a day of it there. it's not a concert standing nut to but. the sun is shining and the wind is blowing. wtf, it's not walmart.