quote:

Originally posted by TigerDore:
Fauci being right would mean a death rate of 10%. Even Italy wasn't that severe. Fauci wasn't close to right. He opened his mouth without thinking.
ETA: Media idiot just repeated the 100k deaths back to the President as if it is a factual projection.

That's funny because the local media here in Chicago just emphasized 200,000, since, of course, that was Fauci's upper bound fear-mongering.

The facts are. Far more will die from a weak economy than this fake flu Pandemic. Family violence, Suicides, homicide, robbery and murder will increase far more than the flu. Most of the current flu numbers are not honest. The much reported Italian fatalities rarely report that 80% of the patients are over 85 years old with other chronic conditions.

quote:

Originally posted by bubbatime:

quote:

Originally posted by 12131:
The leftists' "expert", Fauci, should be benched indefinitely, for being so irresponsible with his garbage statement. He's predicting squat. Motherfucker just threw out wild numbers, and now, everywhere you look, the corrupt media has taken the ball and run with it. I'm just incensed with this shit.

What if he is right? If you don’t like the facts, then the problem isn’t with the facts. I guess we will know soon enough (2 - 4 weeks) if he is right or a leftist troll.

"Facts"? Ladies and gentlemen, problem is worse than I thought. I will not waste any more of my energy on this entire stupid saga. SMH.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:

quote:

Originally posted by bubbatime:

quote:

Originally posted by 12131:
The leftists' "expert", Fauci, should be benched indefinitely, for being so irresponsible with his garbage statement. He's predicting squat. Motherfucker just threw out wild numbers, and now, everywhere you look, the corrupt media has taken the ball and run with it. I'm just incensed with this shit.

What if he is right? If you don’t like the facts, then the problem isn’t with the facts. I guess we will know soon enough (2 - 4 weeks) if he is right or a leftist troll.

There is a difference between facts and guesstimates. This really shouldn’t need explaining.

How hard would it be to just say "I'm not going to make any estimates untill we have more information". Guessing based on either worst case or best case scenario isn't helpful for anyone.

I had a good discussion along those lines yesterday with a doctor friend in Dallas and her husband. Her husband posted a video from a different Texas doctor explaining flattening the curve for Texas (# of beds, # of ventilators, etc.), but then there was some hackjob of editing and it suddenly jumped to 47 million people dead with zero explanation or source. He ended up deleting the video after I posted a few comments and then they called me.

I have a background in risk management for oil & gas so I shared a little about how we treat worst case scenarios such as when I find one I get senior management to fund risk reduction and I certainly don't go on YouTube or TV and needlessly scare people. I learned quite a bit from the doctor on what is happening in Dallas and Texas-wide that isn't getting media attention. They asked how I would do the message and I said I'd:

I'd only tell planners and emergency managers (i.e. not the public) the range of scenarios from high probability/low consequence to low probability/high consequence. Planners need to be buying and coordinating supplies for worse than the most likely scenario, and managers need to be setting up contingency plans.

I'd only tell the public the P90 (ie. 90% probability) scenario. Scaring the public needlessly by sharing the P10 (10% probability) is reckless and and can actually backfire on flattening the curve when the medical profession loses the public's trust.

quit focusing on # of cases and # of deaths. Instead, focusing messages and stats on regional/metro hospital bed space and ventilator availability. That's really what flattening the curve is all about (i.e. for the public the ventilator availability in NYC is only important for that metropolitan area and the ventilator availability in Houston is only important for the Houston metropolitan area).

undoing the early message that hospitalization is just those 60+ and those with comorbidities. Add age ranges on the first bullet point along with comorbidities.

---

Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity

DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer.

quote:

Originally posted by TigerDore:

quote:

Originally posted by bubbatime:

What if he is right? If you don’t like the facts, then the problem isn’t with the facts. I guess we will know soon enough (2 - 4 weeks) if he is right or a leftist troll.

Fauci being right would mean a death rate of 10%. Even Italy wasn't that severe. Fauci wasn't close to right. He opened his mouth without thinking.

ETA: Media idiot just repeated the 100k deaths back to the President as if it is a factual projection.
.

Actually, not. First, I'm not siding with anyone, right or left, up or down. What Fauci - and actually Dr. Birx - are talking about are possibilities. And not inappropriate to discuss at this point - sugar coating and hair on fire are both inappropriate reactions at this juncture. A 40% infection rate for the US ultimately, which is not unreasonable over time, would mean about 132M infected in the US. 100K deaths would represent a .07% CFR. Just for perspective. And if mitigation efforts work as hoped and expected, maybe even better than that. Sweden (which only tried isolation for high-risk groups), may be the most telling for projections. Ultimately, we (globally and collectively) - will need to go back to normal ops and take our chances. Sooner. Or later.

My anticipation is - and just me - that 1) healthcare in the US will substantially improve recovery - and cure - rates, 2) initial efforts at mitigation - not just turning the Titanic but turning the Titanic, QEII, the USN fleet, Diamond Princess and all her sister vessels steaming in tandem - will be effective at blunting initial spread (although not stopping it), 3) developing population immunity, which is now occurring, and 4) a possible and very likely seasonal effect, will probably - pray to your diety - reduce the effects on the US to the best on the planet. That will still mean thousands of deaths. Maybe many thousands. Maybe many tens of thousands. We already have a multi-decade old database in influenza. It is not a surprise. Everything we are doing now will reduce that number, absolutely. But ultimately, see other comment, "take our chances." And then live with the new order.

86,486 members here. Everybody with a confirmed case of COVID-19 raise your hand....

Yeah, that’s what I thought.

quote:

Originally posted by 12131:
"Facts"? Ladies and gentlemen, problem is worse than I thought. I will not waste any more of my energy on this entire stupid saga. SMH.

No, don't go! Patience, with everything.

Want some tangible evidence from the harm being done by all this media hysteria? An 86 yr old woman was killed in a NY hospital when she was attacked by some idiot who thought the victim was not "social distancing" to her satisfaction.

Thank God for President Trump. I'd really like to see everyone in this thread support and trust in President Trump and the decisions he is making. By trusting in him, you are trusting in all of the advisers in whom he trusts, including Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx. Trump trusts them. You should too. Let's all get behind the President. He is doing an amazing job during a tremendously challenging time in our country's history. We will all get through this together.

Some of the claims made in here are nearly laughable.

There were 15000 criminal homicides in the United States and 48000 suicides in 2018. If you evenly distribute those numbers by week, you're looking at 288 homicides and 923 suicides per week for a total of 1,111 deaths. Today marks one month since the first recorded death in the United States from this thing and 2,457 have died.

We can play the numbers game back and forth all day about how many of those people "would have died by X" anyway, but there's simply no way to substantiate those claims any more than I can say with a straight face that anybody who commits a murder or suicide during this period "would have done so anyway". I think the thought that an otherwise normal and well adjusted person would be driven to that point is hard to buy, but then again we have people assuming "the majority" (or even "the vast majority" of COVID-19 deaths would have occurred in short order due to the various comorbidities anyway.

It seems like just last week that this thread was calling this whole event bullshit because H1N1 killed 12,000 people and wasn't this way, but now this thing has killed 2,500 in a fraction of the time and total cases and it's all a big conspiracy.

This disaster is the furthest extension we've ever seen on the death of expertise.

Latest Australia COVID-19 measures ...

From midnight Sunday March 29th 2020, new guidelines to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

New 2 person rule

Summary:
- limit indoor and outdoor gatherings to 2 persons only (same household/family exclusion)
- maximum of 10 people at a funeral
- maximum of 5 people at a wedding

Additional guidance to stay at home unless for:
- shopping for what you need, essentials.
- medical or health care needs, compassionate.
- exercising
- work & study if remote attendance not possible

Up to the State and Territory governments to enforce the 2 person limit. For Victoria (my state), police will issue an on the spot fine of AUD1600, for not observing the enforced limit.

Our Prime Minister also recommended that in the coming months, jigsaw puzzles are essential.

Stay safe forum members!

--chris

Beach images before/after


Bondi Beach last weekend


Beach closures now

quote:

Originally posted by DaBigBR:

It seems like just last week that this thread was calling this whole event bullshit because H1N1 killed 12,000 people and wasn't this way, but now this thing has killed 2,500 in a fraction of the time and total cases and it's all a big conspiracy.

A fraction of the time? We're about into April. This thing has been here since likely before January. But using January, that's three months. H1N1 killed over 12,000 people in 12 months, so a little over 1,000 per month. What are you talking about a fraction of the time? Maybe those deaths will jump, but right now the numbers are on par or less than the swine flu.

quote:

Originally posted by Chris17404:
Thank God for President Trump. I'd really like to see everyone in this thread support and trust in President Trump and the decisions he is making. By trusting in him, you are trusting in all of the advisers in whom he trusts, including Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx. Trump trusts them. You should too. Let's all get behind the President. He is doing an amazing job during a tremendously challenging time in our country's history. We will all get through this together.

This. I'm neither an MD nor an epidemiologist, but this is our President and I trust him to decide which of the many experts he has at his side to rely upon. He has the best medical and economic advisers available in the best country on Earth. The fact that he's refused to rule out any course of action or commit to any time table indicates that (far from what his detractors claim) he's flexible, and will do what he believes in all his heart is best for our nation. We've seen unwarranted attacks on him, using almost unlimited weaponized power of the government by those we know weren't worthy of our trust and he's stood firm. We might not like some things about his personality or mannerisms, but he's demonstrated himself to be a populist that really does care about America and Americans. Sure, we've got plenty of choices to pick from when it comes to who to believe, the internet is packed with them. For me, I'll go with the guy that is our legitimately elected President of the United States. I pray he's doing God's work, because (as God knows) that's a big difference from what we've had in the Oval Office in recent years.

Been trying to keep up with this thread, but after just watching the Nightly News.....I Really frikken hate the main stream media...

Just saw on local news that Joe Diffee died of this corona virus. He was a country singer, very popular back in the 90’s.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by DaBigBR:

It seems like just last week that this thread was calling this whole event bullshit because H1N1 killed 12,000 people and wasn't this way, but now this thing has killed 2,500 in a fraction of the time and total cases and it's all a big conspiracy.

A fraction of the time? We're about into April. This thing has been here since likely before January. But using January, that's three months. H1N1 killed over 12,000 people in 12 months, so a little over 1,000 per month. What are you talking about a fraction of the time? Maybe those deaths will jump, but right now the numbers are on par or less than the swine flu.

"1,000 per month" conveniently overlooks the fact that ~1200 of the ~2500 happened in the last three days.

quote:

Originally posted by OKCGene:
Just saw on local news that Joe Diffee died of this corona virus. He was a country singer, very popular back in the 90’s.

John Prine was hospitalized on Thursday and intubated last night

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

A fraction of the time? We're about into April. This thing has been here since likely before January. But using January, that's three months. H1N1 killed over 12,000 people in 12 months, so a little over 1,000 per month. What are you talking about a fraction of the time? Maybe those deaths will jump, but right now the numbers are on par or less than the swine flu.

Your logic disregards the nature of exponential growth. How many H1N1 deaths in the first 90 days? How many in the month from the first death?

Great post Pulicords. The President shows his true colors when it comes to America and her People. We are in good hands.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

Of course that only works if the store in question has caught up to the 21st century so their PoS terminals support such payment methods. I can think of three major chains that still do not: Walmart, Home Depot and Lowe's.

I have the Walmart app on my iPhone (there's an Android version, too). When I set the app up, I linked a credit card to it.

When it's time to pay at the store, I just use the app, take a picture of the QR code that is displayed on the terminal, and the linked credit card is charged. No receipt printed, the receipt is received electronically by the app.