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| Lawyers, Guns and Money  |
Look at the bright side: We can only lose 2,000 points on the DOW for another 10 days! "Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown "The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor | |||
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| Get busy living or get busy dying!  |
Copied from Page 7 - I have been traveling. Midwest Guy, I like your logic and I'm not not in any way to start an argument, just approaching the discussion from a mathematical angle....... I don't think we can base 2020 earnings to be equal to 2019 earnings. I think the consensus for 2019 earnings on the S&P500 was $164 per share. With all the restrictions, closings, quarantines, etc, I think it's safe to say 2020 earnings will be below 2019 earnings by some %. Let's just say we believe that 2020 earnings will be off %25 (to $123/share). Let's also assume that investors are going to be spooked and not willing to pay 17 P/E, but maybe looking for 14, that would result in a S&P500 index being 1,722. We closed at 2,481 today. I don't think anyone has enough of a crystal ball to guess when the Corona virus news is going to get better, but the longer it goes on the more 2020 earnings are going to be impacted and I am pretty sure the further down the bottom will be. If my memory serves me we closed March 9, 2009 at a S&P500 value of 677. The causes were totally different, but that was the "bottom" then. I moved to cash on Feb 25 of this year at S&P500 at 3,128 and am glad I did....... | |||
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Member |
Do tell! Ive been cashed out for awhile and looking for an opportunity to buy in. Is the time here, or are you waiting? | |||
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Get Off My Lawn |
Ouch. Dow down 10% today, S&P and Nasdaq similar losses. Airlines taking a huge hit, some in the -20% range. On the brighter side, bargains out there  "I’m not going to read Time Magazine, I’m not going to read Newsweek, I’m not going to read any of these magazines; I mean, because they have too much to lose by printing the truth"- Bob Dylan, 1965 | |||
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| Member |
Hello Heathtx, Several issues are bothering icw with trying to model this market: The crude collapse is probably being overlooked by COVID. There are $1.7 trillion dollars in basic junk grade bonds that are tied to the shale producers. The employment side of the oil industry employs greater than 5 million people. The numbers of borrowed debt and employment are not inconsequential. The travel industry makes up currently 5% of world GDP, as we have seen here and worldwide we are moving to a travel lockdown. The great unknown is when travel,lodging and ancillary businesses will move back to normalcy. The response by the market today to rally and then reverse on the NY feds injection of liquidity on a massive scale is a vote of no confidence. Capital preservation to me currently is the order of the day. | |||
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| Member |
Maybe wait for the 2 - 10 % swings per day to calm down? No rush. Cash is nice as hell. Keep your powder dry young man  | |||
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Now in Florida |
Interesting that gold is having a terrible week. Typically, you would see a flight to safety and gold would go up in a panic like we're seeing but gold is more than 10% off its recent highs and is down over 4% today. | |||
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Member |
DAMN.... missed a huge opportunity to buy. Low yesterday and a high today (+15%). I keep missing the boat. Waaaaahhhhh. "Wrong does not cease to be wrong because the majority share in it." L.Tolstoy "A government is just a body of people, usually, notably, ungoverned." Shepherd Book | |||
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| Member |
there's still a lot of volatility in the near future I'm thinking be patient as i bet we see some serious up and down action before we start the final recovery you'll get your shot ----------------------- Proverbs 27:17 - As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another. | |||
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| Member |
Along Investment Lines- The custom knife listings on Bladeforums were kind of slow. There's been a recent uptick of Knife Postings there and it looks like more diverse offerings. People are probably clearing out their stockpile to buy toilet paper. ____________________________________________________ The butcher with the sharpest knife has the warmest heart. | |||
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| Member |
I've had to resist the urge to try and daytrade those wild swings. The urge is still there, but I've always sucked at gambling, so I'm maintaining my discipline. | |||
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Legalize the Constitution |
Our wealth management company made quite a few equity purchases yesterday (Friday). One position that they went after particularly hard is oil and gas. _______________________________________________________ despite them | |||
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| Experienced Slacker |
From the sale of my Ford stock I bought a little bit of XOM at $35 or thereabouts, and a few shares of VOO at about $235. Still have most of my stake in VGSH, but might convert some of it to cash to have purchasing power in a few weeks. | |||
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| Member |
The market timers and bottom fishers, proceed with caution . The fed has shot its wad. The best news we could possibly see is we have found an antiviral, that probability is currently low. | |||
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| Free radical scavenger  |
Gold will go higher because it has to. Traders are just liquidating their positions. | |||
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Member |
I did a little bottom fishing on the 12th, May do some more today. Mind you this isn’t large lump sums, not blowing any wads. I have two longer term aggressive stock funds with Vanguard(IRA)just adding to that from a money market. The share price bounced up 5+% on Friday. | |||
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| Member |
I don't think the gun is empty yet, but they are running low on bullets. The "market" has and will overreact. If you know what you are looking for, there will be once in a decade type opportunity. | |||
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| Member |
I am watching ticker JETS (airline mutal fund). If they shut down US travel and the airlines tank im going to throw a few bucks in. | |||
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Lost |
The Fed basically has 4 shots, and has now used 2 of them. | |||
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| Member |
I think the boat is back | |||
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