Not sure how a rate cut by the Fed is going to help supply chain disruptions in the manufacturing and retail sectors. I can see how this could and is affecting tourism negatively. My neighbor works for Delta and they have been over staffed for the last four weeks or so. Time will tell.

The S&P closed at 2,954 on Feb 28. That's equal to where the S&P was back in Oct 2019. It gave up 4.5 months of gain...BFD.

quote:

Originally posted by a1abdj:

quote:

So even if the Corona outbreak gets over right now, profits for thousands of business's, builders, and manufacturers through Q4 are already in the tank.

Sucks, but that's what happens when you put all of your eggs in Chinese baskets.

I hope Walmart and Amazon don't suffer.........

Problem is, almost everything manufactured, even here in the U.S. has something in it, that's in the China basket. Kind of hard to build a desk without screws, well if there are no Chinese screws, well there won't be any U.S. produced screws either because everyone has bought all of them. Many times you need Chinese goods to manufacture something because there's simply no alternative. It really sucks that we as a nation have gotten so reliant on garbage goods from China.

quote:

Originally posted by jimmy123x:

quote:

Originally posted by a1abdj:

quote:

So even if the Corona outbreak gets over right now, profits for thousands of business's, builders, and manufacturers through Q4 are already in the tank.

Sucks, but that's what happens when you put all of your eggs in Chinese baskets.

I hope Walmart and Amazon don't suffer.........

Problem is, almost everything manufactured, even here in the U.S. has something in it, that's in the China basket. Kind of hard to build a desk without screws, well if there are no Chinese screws, well there won't be any U.S. produced screws either because everyone has bought all of them. Many times you need Chinese goods to manufacture something because there's simply no alternative. It really sucks that we as a nation have gotten so reliant on garbage goods from China.

My hope is US manufacturers look at this and say, it may be more expensive, but to retain control of our ability to make stuff we are going to make 20% at home. This would raise costs some, but allow for some domestic production for supply chain interruptions.

Vanguard Intermediate Term Bond Fund.

DOW futures are skyrocketing. Up 730 or something like that.

Maybe we'll see some stability soon.

And they started up yesterday and went up after the rate cut and then plummeted.

Expect a lot of volatility in the near future.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
DOW futures are skyrocketing. Up 730 or something like that.

Maybe we'll see some stability soon.

quote:

Originally posted by daikyu:
And they started up yesterday and went up after the rate cut and then plummeted.

Expect a lot of volatility in the near future.

Yup. Yesterday we lost half of what we gained back Monday. Today, so far, we've regained everything we lost yesterday.

What goes up, must come down. I am not sure if that is an actual law of physics. But it is in the stock market world. Then back up and back down, up, down, up, down, etc.

We all make our decisions.

In my world when it got above $25k I was concerned about a correction, maybe a big one. Then it went to 29k

But all of that is a recipe to drive you crazy if you let it.

As I said in an earlier post. Pick a strategy that works for you. One that you can roll with in the ups and downs.

If you are heavily invested in equities right now yes it is going to hurt. But in the last few years you have done well. It could go down a bunch more and you could even lose a bunch more. Or it might make a run to the mid thirties. Who knows.

Worst case is you are somewhere that while things are good it is all flowers. As soon as it tanks it is a real disaster. Don't be there. That is what I have been advocating for quite a while and be diversified.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
DOW futures are skyrocketing. Up 730 or something like that.

Maybe we'll see some stability soon.

Nobody knows, but I honestly don't think so. Go to the Corona Virus thread and look at the last 2 days of posts and how many members are reporting the companies they work for are cancelling all business travel, conferences, trips,one guy can't get tile he ordered for building a skyscraper in NYC etc. I believe we are going to see a 9/11 type situation based upon all of the canceled travel and companies that are effected by that (airlines, rental cars, hotels, etc.). After 9/11 we had no interruption of goods being delivered (like this one), just travel severely effected. This one we have both goods and raw material supply chains interrupted and travel.

quote:

Originally posted by jimmy123x:

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
DOW futures are skyrocketing. Up 730 or something like that.

Maybe we'll see some stability soon.

Nobody knows, but I honestly don't think so. Go to the Corona Virus thread and look at the last 2 days of posts and how many members are reporting the companies they work for are cancelling all business travel, conferences, trips,one guy can't get tile he ordered for building a skyscraper in NYC etc. I believe we are going to see a 9/11 type situation based upon all of the canceled travel and companies that are effected by that (airlines, rental cars, hotels, etc.). After 9/11 we had no interruption of goods being delivered (like this one), just travel severely effected. This one we have both goods and raw material supply chains interrupted and travel.

work for a Fortune 50 company

we just cancelled a big national meeting of about 400 people

------------------------------------------------

I should have invested in Purell and Lysol.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
I should have invested in Purell and Lysol.

Purell is by gojo which is private, but lysol's masters are traded on London stock exchange:

lysol investing info

But I know you were mostly joking

quote:

Originally posted by apprentice:

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
I should have invested in Purell and Lysol.

Purell is by gojo which is private, but lysol's masters are traded on London stock exchange:

lysol investing info

But I know you were mostly joking

Chlorox is a legit stock (i don't own it individually)

CLX

at a 52 wk high now naturally

----------------------------------------

Good to know for next time, and yes, there will be one. And another after that and so on.

SARS-CoV-2 is not the only virus having an impact on the stock market.
My advisor thinks a lot of the drop was related to the potential of a Bernie presidency, and today’s rebound may be linked to the hope the DNC is ridding itself of that virus.

again it depends on your investment horizon. I'm looking 8 - 10 years out before I need it for retirement so I can absorb the ups and downs. I've almost entirely in equity - no bonds in my portfolio as I want aggressive growth for the next six years, and then will start moving about 20% into bonds every year starting year 7 until retirement

so the blips of the past two weeks will be a forgotten item in 2028

quote:

posted March 04, 2020 02:35 PM Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by apprentice:
quote:
Originally posted by Skins2881:
I should have invested in Purell and Lysol.


Purell is by gojo which is private, but lysol's masters are traded on London stock exchange:

lysol investing info

But I know you were mostly joking


Chlorox is a legit stock (i don't own it individually)

CLX

at a 52 wk high now naturally

^^^^^^^^^^^
I have a position in Clorox, unfortunately I also own airline stocks. My healthcare stocks gained back some of their losses thanks to Biden's win over Bernie. It will all even out in the end.

As of today (Saturday 3/7) I'm down 6.9% from my all time high. S&P 500 is down about 12%.

Given my asset allocation between Stocks:Bond:Cash, this makes sense.

But that's all in the rear view mirror now. I have sold nothing, but I have added a slight amount, given much of my paycheck automatically goes into my 401K.

Onward. Next week is another week. Next year is another year.

"quote"
again it depends on your investment horizon. I'm looking 8 - 10 years out before I need it for retirement so I can absorb the ups and downs. I've almost entirely in equity - no bonds in my portfolio as I want aggressive growth for the next six years, and then will start moving about 20% into bonds every year starting year 7 until retirement

so the blips of the past two weeks will be a forgotten item in 2028


This is a prime example of everyone has their own strategy.
In my opinion this is a risky strategy for someone your age. I have a family member who has a similar mindset. It could work out very well.
But at this stage for me I could not do it. The potential for significant loss would out weigh the potential gain to be that heavily invested in equities. Again it could be the wining strategy. And why these threads are interesting to see the diversity of strategies. Good luck to all.