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| Shit don't mean shit |
No worries. I don't know why I see articles from them all the time now. I'd never heard of them up until a few weeks ago. <shrugs> | |||
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Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie |
You have a reading comprehension issue or are just very dense. Most likely both. ~Alan Acta Non Verba NRA Life Member (Patron) God, Family, Guns, Country Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan | |||
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Exceptional Circumstances |
Way too early in the game for you to have developed a personal problem with a member here. What is your real beef? Who are you trying to impress? I would suggest taking a step back, but I know, opinions vary. This is a great place. You might want to stick around for a while. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ | |||
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Member |
RE: Stock Market Bargains... I own and like IIPR and will add if it gets near $70 again. Recently sold some for $108; they're a well run company in an expanding market related to a product for which the demand isn't particularly elastic.... I also like PLOW at around $37; used to work for them and know and trust management to have a viable long-term strategy with well thought out contingency plans. $0.02, pd Is your government serving you? | |||
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Baroque Bloke |
I leave market picks to my financial guy. But I’d bet that Buffet is picking up some bargains, so I think that Berkshire will be showing some good results. But other folks have probably had that thought too, and it might be already priced into Berkshire. Serious about crackers | |||
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| Member |
Don’t Fear an Oil Price War COMMENTARY By Ellen R. Wald March 11, 2020 12:01 pm ET Yes, the oil market crashed this week. No, this is not the time to be scared away from oil. Here are three reasons beyond value that this week’s drama shouldn’t frighten off oil investors. First, oil isn’t just a number on a screen, but a physical commodity that consumers will buy with cheap prices. With Saudi Arabia offering discounts of $4 to $6 per barrel for Asia, it won’t be just speculators buying. Chinese refiners and the Chinese government, as well as other importers, will use this opportunity to purchase large amounts of physical oil for refining or storage. Low oil prices over the next few months will function essentially as a stimulus package for a struggling Chinese economy and will show up in reports as higher demand numbers. This data, in turn, will help lift oil prices. In fact, it looks like this is Saudi Arabia’s strategy. The kingdom lowers prices, increases supplies available for export, sells more to China and other customers, and sees global demand numbers rise. This approach is based on the risky assumption that markets will react to higher demand data and significantly raise oil prices. If it plays out, this higher demand will show up in data released by early May. Second, the current drop in oil prices is unrelated to long-term structural weaknesses like peak demand, alternative energy technologies, or rising electric-vehicle use. Peak demand is a theory that may prove true some day, but it is no more likely today than it was at the start of 2020 when Brent was $66 per barrel. If this drop in oil prices was related to a breakthrough in batteries to store solar power or surprising sales numbers for electric vehicles, there would be reason to believe that low prices may be the new normal for oil. But neither is the case. This week’s events are based solely on factors that will settle themselves eventually. Third, this week’s oil-price crash was a unique confluence of events that won’t be repeated. Oil is not immune to the undercurrent of coronavirus anxiety that’s affecting every sector. But the proximate cause of the crash was a specific chain of events that started with a rift between OPEC, the original 14-member cartel in which Saudi Arabia holds sway, and OPEC+, a new, extended 24-member alliance that includes Russia. Moscow started the disturbance by effectively vetoing an OPEC+ production cut proposed by Saudi Arabia. The friction was not new. In fact, the tensions between Russia and OPEC easily could have boiled over in the summer of 2019, when Iran and Russia fought over a meeting date for the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna. The entire OPEC+ cooperation initiative seemed on the verge of collapse again in December 2019 when oil ministers nearly failed to put together a new production cut deal. The group survived into 2020 because Saudi Arabia offered Russia a generous exception for its gas condensates and the Saudi oil ministry took more of its own oil off the market. It was no surprise when Russia refused to accept further cuts at the March OPEC+ meeting. Just a few days before the meeting, Russian President Vladimir Putin set up his energy minister, Alexander Novak, to take this tough stance, saying, “For the Russian budget, for our economy, the current oil prices level is acceptable.” In truth, Putin had effectively vetoed any OPEC proposal before it was ever made. If last week’s fissure had happened at one of those moments in 2019, the market’s negative reaction would have been tempered. Had OPEC listened to Putin the week before, it might not have tried to push such an aggressive production cut on Russia and the public divide would have been avoided. But that wasn’t all. After Russia walked out of the meeting last week, Saudi Arabia announced it would produce more oil and lower its prices, especially to Asia, which it hopes will entice China to buy more. This policy is logical, because—so long as assumptions hold—it should increase Saudi sales and also improve global demand data. After all, demand anxiety has been the strongest force keeping oil prices down the past year. If Saudi Arabia had increased supply and lowered prices at the end of February when China cut its orders of Saudi oil, the market reaction would have been less severe. Instead, coming immediately after Russia’s refusal to cut and amid the coronavirus fears, the new Saudi policy was seen solely as a hostile reaction to Russia’s actions. In other words, the market took what would have been a reasonable policy on its own and saw the start of a price war. That instilled fears of a prolonged problem. There’s plenty to fear in the world. Shifting oil prices shouldn’t be on the top of most investors’ lists. Ellen R. Wald, Ph.D. is president of Transversal Consulting and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. She is the author of Saudi, Inc.: The Arabian Kingdom’s Pursuit of Profit and Power. Barron's | |||
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| Peace through superior firepower  |
Lighten up, man. Unbutton your collar, take off your shoes. Something to drink, perhaps? It's a bad sign when a new member comes out swinging. Just take it easy, please. | |||
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| Shit don't mean shit |
Got a big pile of money sitting in a money market fund from a rollover 401k we cashed out in Jan. Trying to decide when to jump back in. A very volatile last 2 weeks. Decision, decisions...  | |||
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| Ignored facts still exist |
Market timing is tough. Almost impossible to optimize 100% . | |||
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Ammoholic |
Yep. I'd wait two weeks then start DCAing in afterwards. Jesse Sic Semper Tyrannis | |||
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| Member |
The market is SO volatile that there is no way telling where it will be in two weeks. Start nibbling now. You don't have to buy at the bottom to make money. I have been buying a little almost every day over the past two weeks. Yes, everything I bought has declined since I bought them. But now my stock portfolio has lower P/Es and higher dividend rates than it had a month ago, and I am good with that. Over the past two days, I bought General Dynamics GD, Facebook FB and Marathon Petroleum MPC. But since the premarket futures are down another 5% today, I am not buying a darn thing today. ---------------------------------------------------- Dances with Crabgrass | |||
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| Ammoholic |
^^ Correct. You don't need to hit bottom and time it perfectly. If you're buying in before the bottom and through the bottom, you are only slightly worse than someone who timed it perfect. If you buy just after the "v" "u" or whatever shape it is you miss out a lot. I use to have a handout I'd give people who try to time the market, it had a couple of examples on it. One of the really powerful ones I can't remember exact numbers, but the concept was if you missed best five days in a year of trading you are no better off than just holding through a dip. If miss the best 10 days of the year you'd have half the return (or double the loss) of someone who made no changes. Keep putting your money in at all points on the "u" and you're GTG. Not participating or miss timing it is really, really bad. Jesse Sic Semper Tyrannis | |||
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| Lawyers, Guns and Money  |
For some reason they don't give out new hats on the way down...  "Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown "The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor | |||
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| Member |
If we do what's right the coming Boom in 3-6 months will be mind blowing. ____________________________________________________ The butcher with the sharpest knife has the warmest heart. | |||
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Member |
I have nothing against trout, or sniffing them. Yes, watching all the news, as I slowly get better from my own ‘Corona-like’ ailment. Just looking at some market issues today, wanted to play a little. I just moved $5k from a money fund into one of my longer-term favorites, Vanguard Explorer Fund. It’s not a large move, and I can do the same a fair amount more times going forward. Not trying to capture a bottom, just looking for lower averages, 15+yr IRA money. https://www.investopedia.com/a...rarian-investing.asp | |||
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Now in Florida |
I have been out of individual stocks for several years, but I did my first buying today, with the S&P around 2550. Some banks, tech, consumer staples. I have a long list of names to keep an eye on. Would love the chance to get more even lower. I bought small, equal amounts of each name and will add to the positions and/or add names if we go lower (which I think is likely). Avoiding airlines/travel and oil companies for the time being. To hard to assess the damage in those industries for the time being. | |||
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| Member |
How's the ride so far Radiomnan? Enjoy! Are you all in yet? | |||
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| Green grass and high tides  |
I am really glad we adjusted our mix approx. 18 months ago on a small portfolio that will help provide for us as we were entering our pre-retirement stage. No pension. Sure we missed out on some explosive grow during that time. But the hurt is a lot, lot less right now than it would of been had we not done so. "Practice like you want to play in the game" | |||
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| Experienced Slacker |
Sold my Ford stock at $6. Not a very big stake, but time to stop bleeding. Now I'll have some cash to hopefully do something smart with in a while. Otherwise I'm in VGSH which is actually on a small uptick during all this, and energy stocks. | |||
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| Now in Florida |
I bought JPM and GS. I'm happy with a small initial position at these levels. On the airlines, Warren Buffett just bought nearly 1 million shares of Delta Airlines at around $46 per share. Now trading at $36.60. I'm still not buying airlines, but just goes to show you that no one knows where the market is going short term (Warren will be the first to admit that he doesn't), but if you have a long time frame to invest, as long as you buy a business at a fair price, you will likely be ok - even if you don't get the best price. | |||
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