Luckily I was in the G fund with my TSP when this all went down. I feel for those that have lost money, but I'm seeing dollar signs.

Just looking for bottom before I move.

Pulling all your cash from the bank right now will not help with avoiding the virus, but that is exactly what people are doing. The market is driven by fear and greed, right now fear is winning. People are afraid they might loose everything so they sell to preserve some security. until people are sure they will survive this crisis, and that the market is not heading for 9,000 it will continue to be volatile to put it mildly.

quote:

Originally posted by Skull Leader:
Luckily I was in the G fund with my TSP when this all went down. I feel for those that have lost money, but I'm seeing dollar signs.

Just looking for bottom before I move.

Same here. I moved everything into the G fund in around January.

Rather than looking for the bottom, I'm watching the mainstream media for any indication that they've lost interest in this virus. Once they stop fanning the flames, it'll be time for a move into the C fund.

quote:

Originally posted by MRMATT:
Who or what is working against this market? It can't be all covid-19 related. One day, the President says something and the market rockets up. The very next day, it crashes again. Something is not right.

This is uncharted territory. We have never faced a more or less complete shutdown of the economy for any extended period of time. No one knows what the structural damage to the economy will be when this is all over. It's the fear and uncertainty that is driving volatility. Any good news, and everyone wants to jump back in to get bargains. Any bad news and everyone sells whatever they can to avoid further losses. The downside is usually worse because margin calls generate further selling.

Shares of Walmart hit an all time high today before pulling back slightly. Nice to see not every company is getting thrashed.

Kroger is doing well too. Touched a 52 week high today and closed strong.

quote:

Originally posted by nhtagmember:
I have a great deal of money in the market...and this is just a blip...but I do see some opportunities but most of my holdings are near or at their historical highs

my best holding (thanks to Jim Allen) was to get into Realty Income at about $18 a share

not sure I want to add any new stock to that one even on a dip

This is not a blip, this is a drastic collapse of consumer spending that might go on for 12 months or more. Companies are drawing down their revolving credit lines. This is a liquidity crisis we have no model for. You will see chapter elevens in a widespread spectrum across corporations America. The trillions of dollars the US government will throw at this is going to be shocking. MG

quote:

Originally posted by 280nosler:

quote:

Originally posted by MRMATT:
Who or what is working against this market? It can't be all covid-19 related. One day, the President says something and the market rockets up. The very next day, it crashes again. Something is not right.

Exxon is at the mercy of Saudi Arabia and Russia. Their Dividend is on the wrong side of 10%, and the pain will continue until oil stabilizes and OPEC settles its tiff with the Ruskies. Watch for $27ish following a dividend cut down to 4.75%. IF they announced a dividend cut from 10.5% to 4.5%, the stock price would lose $2.00 immediately (which would increase the dividend all over again).

I think Southwest has another $6 to fall before I'd get in, and JPM has another $5.80. That would put JPM at 5%, and LUV would be 2.45% dividends.

I am targeting stocks that are down at least 20% from intra-year highs with strong balance sheets, good products, and a long term horizon.

I am not an owner of XOM, but given their dedication to the dividend, I expect CAPEX to be mercilessly slashed and debt to expand to maintain the dividend. Ive been wrong before, but they dont want their aristocrat status to go away.

I am also a lover of high quality dividend stocks. There will be some incredible long term bargains in the coming months.

Yeah I would think a couple years from now, you would be very happy with Apple or Amazon at this point.....

quote:

Originally posted by sig77:
Yeah I would think a couple years from now, you would be very happy with Apple or Amazon at this point.....

I know that is not the norm, but when I evaluate a stock, i envision holding shares for a minimum of a 10 year holding period. I bet Apple and Amazon will still be selling us lots of stuff in 10 years. In fact, I imagine they will be even more engrained in our lives.

I've got a lifetime of experience in the grocery and produce business. Sysco is a longtime well established business that fills a hard to compete niche and they do a very good job. Restaurants and colleges closing will make 2nd qtr bad. If it stays that way forver syy is screwed but it wont. 5% div on syy is a gift. It may go a little lower but I'm good with 5% on solid blue chipper. They did not cut div in 08/09 and recent share price was mid 80s a week ago. Now 30 and as low as 26 today. I bought twice avg of 27.5 per share. classic overreaction by Mr Market.

quote:

Originally posted by doublesharp:
I've got a lifetime of experience in the grocery and produce business. Sysco is a longtime well established business that fills a hard to compete niche and they do a very good job. Restaurants and colleges closing will make 2nd qtr bad. If it stays that way forver syy is screwed but it wont. 5% div on syy is a gift. It may go a little lower but I'm good with 5% on solid blue chipper. They did not cut div in 08/09 and recent share price was mid 80s a week ago. Now 30 and as low as 26 today. I bought twice avg of 27.5 per share. classic overreaction by Mr Market.

I have not looked at Sysco in detail in a couple of years as it had been overpriced. If they weather the storm for the next several months, i imagine they will jump back to being highly successful.

quote:

Originally posted by doublesharp:
I've got a lifetime of experience in the grocery and produce business. Sysco is a longtime well established business that fills a hard to compete niche and they do a very good job. Restaurants and colleges closing will make 2nd qtr bad. If it stays that way forver syy is screwed but it wont. 5% div on syy is a gift. It may go a little lower but I'm good with 5% on solid blue chipper. They did not cut div in 08/09 and recent share price was mid 80s a week ago. Now 30 and as low as 26 today. I bought twice avg of 27.5 per share. classic overreaction by Mr Market.

Thanks for your insight and experience, that opinion is very valuable. Thanks

quote:

Originally posted by MRMATT:
Who or what is working against this market? It can't be all covid-19 related. One day, the President says something and the market rockets up. The very next day, it crashes again. Something is not right.

As others have mentioned, the oil price war and record low interest rates are also factors.

But this time is different, and not necessarily in a good way.

We have met the enemy and he is us.

For most of my life, vast sums of money were managed by professional money managers, like insurance companies and pension funds. These money managers all went to the same schools, belonged to he same country clubs, and probably had sex with each others wives and daughters.

These managers all met for lunch and decided which stocks to buy or sell, but they changed prices gradually. It was very rare for the price of a stock to move 1% in any given day.

Then twenty years or more ago, interest rates were artificially lowered to almost zero. The miracle of compound interest all but disappeared. Companies terminated their pension plans (my employer did) and we were all told that IRA and 401(k) plans were the new retirement plans. We would each manage our own retirement future.

So what is different now, is we have a huge amount of money that is NOT managed by professional money mangers, but rather by rank amateurs like you and me. And at least some of the rank amateurs are totally and completely freaking out every day. Now most of us amateurs don't freak out when the market is rising, instead we congratulate ourselves on our superior stock picking abilities. But once the markets start going down, we amateurs start selling. And the market goes down 7% or more in a day.

Now you may notice that there are some people posting that as soon as the market hits the bottom, they are going to buy stocks. Then there will be a buying surge, and the market will go up very, very quickly. There is no red light that goes off when we hit the bottom, so these people are not going to be buying at the bottom either.

Remember the market prime directive is "Buy low, Sell high". It is not "Buy lowest, Sell highest".

There are more stock market bargains every day as we scream ever downward. Get them while you can.

quote:

Originally posted by Hay2bale:

So what is different now, is we have a huge amount of money that is NOT managed by professional money mangers, but rather by rank amateurs like you and me. And at least some of the rank amateurs are totally and completely freaking out every day. Now most of us amateurs don't freak out when the market is rising, instead we congratulate ourselves on our superior stock picking abilities. But once the markets start going down, we amateurs start selling. And the market goes down 7% or more in a day.

As a professional trader, I actually think the opposite is true. Money managed and traded by amateurs is a drop in the bucket compared to institutional money these days. I think there are two much larger factors that contribute to the way the markets function these days. The first is that the majority of money being traded these days is done so on an algorithmic basis. Computers are making buy/sell decisions based on a huge number of data inputs and artificial intelligence. When the market is shocked one way or the other, all the algorithms tend to react the same way. The result is a flood of orders in the same direction with few orders in the opposite direction. This exacerbates the magnitude of any move. It's also why corrections of the move are typically large as well - because the computers all recognize that the original move was too large, so now they all put in orders to go the other way.

The second factor is the prevalence of index funds. When a crisis hits and everyone is liquidating these funds, the fund managers then have to liquidate their holdings of the SP500 stocks - all 500 of them, without regard to the unique effects of the crisis on each company in the index. Because the funds held by the index funds are so large relative to the size of the actual index, this indiscriminate selling can have an outsize impact on the index and create very large magnitude moves.

This is a simplified version of the situation and there are also many other complex issues surrounding the structural defects of the markets, but they are definitely playing a large part in the volatility of the market .

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:

quote:

Originally posted by Hay2bale:

So what is different now, is we have a huge amount of money that is NOT managed by professional money mangers, but rather by rank amateurs like you and me. And at least some of the rank amateurs are totally and completely freaking out every day. Now most of us amateurs don't freak out when the market is rising, instead we congratulate ourselves on our superior stock picking abilities. But once the markets start going down, we amateurs start selling. And the market goes down 7% or more in a day.

As a professional trader, I actually think the opposite is true. Money managed and traded by amateurs is a drop in the bucket compared to institutional money these days. I think there are two much larger factors that contribute to the way the markets function these days. The first is that the majority of money being traded these days is done so on an algorithmic basis. Computers are making buy/sell decisions based on a huge number of data inputs and artificial intelligence. When the market is shocked one way or the other, all the algorithms tend to react the same way. The result is a flood of orders in the same direction with few orders in the opposite direction. This exacerbates the magnitude of any move. It's also why corrections of the move are typically large as well - because the computers all recognize that the original move was too large, so now they all put in orders to go the other way.

The second factor is the prevalence of index funds. When a crisis hits and everyone is liquidating these funds, the fund managers then have to liquidate their holdings of the SP500 stocks - all 500 of them, without regard to the unique effects of the crisis on each company in the index. Because the funds held by the index funds are so large relative to the size of the actual index, this indiscriminate selling can have an outsize impact on the index and create very large magnitude moves.

This is a simplified version of the situation and there are also many other complex issues surrounding the structural defects of the markets, but they are definitely playing a large part in the volatility of the market .

I am sure you know more about this. My main sources are CNBC and Fox Business. My understanding was that more individuals were managing their own accounts, often by trading the S&P 500 SPY. I thought there were large fund inflows in December and January to the SPY.

I also read that more individuals were trading options, and I think this would also add to market volatility.

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:

The second factor is the prevalence of index funds. When a crisis hits and everyone is liquidating these funds, the fund managers then have to liquidate their holdings of the SP500 stocks - all 500 of them, without regard to the unique effects of the crisis on each company in the index. Because the funds held by the index funds are so large relative to the size of the actual index, this indiscriminate selling can have an outsize impact on the index and create very large magnitude moves.

This is a simplified version of the situation and there are also many other complex issues surrounding the structural defects of the markets, but they are definitely playing a large part in the volatility of the market .

These points can not be overstated !

having a big effect on the market

the plus side is when it recovers -- we could see days easily +1,500 in huge gains

that's why you don't want to sell out at these lows

-------------------------------------------------------

One thing is for sure. Those in the financial business are not going to lose their portfolio's and assets so that their customers don't lose theirs.
Hence, they have been working for their own benefit in this crisis not yours. So telling you one thing while doing another is certainly their methodology right now. So your reliance on them is at your own peril imho.

Thanks for the answers so far. So as someone who is waiting on the low how close are we possibly to the bottom? I dont plan to wait until the absolute bottom as I dont want to miss lower prices entirely to enter the market. I have a price in my mind but dont know if its realistic due to the stimulus's and help being offered seemingly by the larger economies. (I didnt stay in a holiday inn express last night so if none of this makes sense pretend I only started looking at my own stocks within the last month or so)