quote:

Originally posted by egregore:
Humans have spread diseases by their travels since long before there were airlines. Europeans on wooden sailing ships brought smallpox and measles to the New World. Before that, it is believed, the Mongols brought the black plague to Europe on horseback. We don't blame the shipping industry or the horses.

Yep. My great grandparents both died the same week in January 1919 from the Spanish flu (they were both under 40) and my grandmother grew up an orphan. They lived in the Texas panhandle in a town that has a current population of 265. I think in today's terminology we would call that a socially distant place. Pandemics are going to pandemic, they just move faster now.

I think we will reach the point in about 30 days + / - we have no choice but to revert to 'modified operations ' of businesses

airlines
casinos
restaurants
retail
cruises
athletics (NBA / NHL / MLB, etc)
small business, etc

There is just not enough 'stimulus' that can be offered by the government to keep 10,000s + businesses financially afloat -- untold hundreds of billions.

Esp. as we learn more hard data about how transmissable and virulent this particular strain is. The mortality figures initially floated of 2-3% are BS.

------------------From Foxnews:

For the study, published Monday (March 16) in the journal Science, the researchers developed a computer model to simulate the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, among 375 cities in China, including Wuhan, where the outbreak began. For the model, they combined data on reported infections with information on people's movements (obtained from mobile phone data).

They estimated that, prior to the lockdown of Wuhan on Jan. 23, about 86% of all COVID-19 infections in China were undetected. In other words, for every confirmed case of COVID-19, there were six undetected cases, according to The Washington Post. These undetected cases were responsible for the majority of the disease spread prior to the lockdown, the researchers said.

The findings have implications for COVID-19 spread in the rest of the world, as many countries are behind on testing for the disease. The results suggest that the number of cases worldwide could be five to 10 times higher than what has been reported, meaning the true number of cases could be higher than 1.5 million, according to Quartz.

-----------------------------

We can't bankrupt the entire country -- what we can do is take targeted steps to protect the individuals MOST susceptible (elderly, immuno-supressed, etc).

There are ways to do that intelligently without 'total shutdown' of society which is pretty much where we are right now.

---------------------------------------------------

While the commercial airline industry tailspins, the private jet side of the industry is booming.

https://www.breitbart.com/poli...eat-on-private-jets/

Private jet travel increases slightly, but not because those who fly the airlines have decided to charter a Learjet or a Hawker.

Those who travel on charter, fractional, corporate, or private business aircraft don't generally get on the airlines. Those who travel by the airlines generally don't get on charter aircraft, and can't afford them.

For what it costs to fly across the country, one could have bought several first class seats on most any airline. A round trip can start about sixty grand and go up. It isnt' cheap. There may be those in business who have been utilizing airlines and can't, but already had regular access to business class aircraft, but the typical airline passenger doesn't, and can't afford to go that route.

I once landed in Albuquerque with a fractional operation and taxied to the fixed-base operator to drop them off. As I opened the cabin door, the front passenger, father of the family traveling, sniffed a deep breath and asked "I wonder what the poor people are doing to day?"

I bit my tongue, as I so wanted to turn about and say "well, sir, we're flying you. Thanks for asking."

Did I get a refund on tickets that post-9/11 military response prevented me from using? Will I get a refund for travel that will likely be cancelled (not my choice) in April? Then, sit & spin.

Infections can go undetected. Deaths, not so much. I'm watching the trend on the death numbers. In the US it's relative small, but climing fairly steeply. In 30 days, it will likely be pretty bad. I don't see everything opening back up. If anything, it will go the other direction.

There's no reason to think this will be over quickly. I'm thinking the main burn through will be 4-6 months.

quote:

Originally posted by Sig209:
I think we will reach the point in about 30 days + / - we have no choice but to revert to 'modified operations ' of businesses

airlines
casinos
restaurants
retail
cruises
athletics (NBA / NHL / MLB, etc)
small business, etc

There is just not enough 'stimulus' that can be offered by the government to keep 10,000s + businesses financially afloat -- untold hundreds of billions.

Esp. as we learn more hard data about how transmissable and virulent this particular strain is. The mortality figures initially floated of 2-3% are BS.

------------------From Foxnews:

For the study, published Monday (March 16) in the journal Science, the researchers developed a computer model to simulate the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, among 375 cities in China, including Wuhan, where the outbreak began. For the model, they combined data on reported infections with information on people's movements (obtained from mobile phone data).

They estimated that, prior to the lockdown of Wuhan on Jan. 23, about 86% of all COVID-19 infections in China were undetected. In other words, for every confirmed case of COVID-19, there were six undetected cases, according to The Washington Post. These undetected cases were responsible for the majority of the disease spread prior to the lockdown, the researchers said.

The findings have implications for COVID-19 spread in the rest of the world, as many countries are behind on testing for the disease. The results suggest that the number of cases worldwide could be five to 10 times higher than what has been reported, meaning the true number of cases could be higher than 1.5 million, according to Quartz.

-----------------------------

We can't bankrupt the entire country -- what we can do is take targeted steps to protect the individuals MOST susceptible (elderly, immuno-supressed, etc).

There are ways to do that intelligently without 'total shutdown' of society which is pretty much where we are right now.

---------------------------------------------------

I think Boeing is championing for the bailout to mitigate its loses from the 737MAX debacle, which was self-inflicted and not a result of the virus

if they get bailed out on that, then there truly is no price to pay for being wrong

the deeper they get into the Max problem, the worse it gets and now they're looking at wiring issues that may have to be replaced

quote:

Originally posted by Herknav:
Did I get a refund on tickets that post-9/11 military response prevented me from using? Will I get a refund for travel that will likely be cancelled (not my choice) in April? Then, sit & spin.

point 1 -- 9/11 was almost 20 years ago are you still bitter about that?

point 2 -- have you called the airline? -- they are being very generous about their cancellation policies now -- we have modified several trips already. not outright refunds -- but 're-booking' for future travel

---------------------------

quote:

Originally posted by nhtagmember:
I think Boeing is championing for the bailout to mitigate its loses from the 737MAX debacle, which was self-inflicted and not a result of the virus

if they get bailed out on that, then there truly is no price to pay for being wrong

the deeper they get into the Max problem, the worse it gets and now they're looking at wiring issues that may have to be replaced

Ever since they merged with McDonnel Douglas, its been one shit show after another. The Douglas business model infected the executive offices, Harry Stonecipher started the tumbling series of failures. Boeing used to be a solid company...

At some point, they may need to be broken up, too many stumbles...military, commercial, space, etc

quote:

Originally posted by Sig209:

quote:

Originally posted by Herknav:
Did I get a refund on tickets that post-9/11 military response prevented me from using? Will I get a refund for travel that will likely be cancelled (not my choice) in April? Then, sit & spin.

point 1 -- 9/11 was almost 20 years ago are you still bitter about that?

point 2 -- have you called the airline? -- they are being very generous about their cancellation policies now -- we have modified several trips already. not outright refunds -- but 're-booking' for future travel

---------------------------

1) I was asked which part of “non-refundable” I didn’t understand.
2) It’s a group trip (chaperoning for the school), so no decisions yet.

I’m not bitter. I took my chances and rolled snake eyes. I am merely pointing out their hypocrisy.

quote:

Originally posted by nhtagmember:
If all other bailouts are of any guide, you can kiss the money goodbye

Huh??

TARP

On December 19, 2014, the U.S. Treasury sold its remaining holdings of Ally Financial, essentially ending the program. TARP recovered funds totalling $441.7 billion from $426.4 billion invested, earning a $15.3 billion profit or an annualized rate of return of 0.6% and perhaps a loss when adjusted for inflation.[2][3]

quote:

Originally posted by Herknav:

quote:

Originally posted by Sig209:

quote:

Originally posted by Herknav:
Did I get a refund on tickets that post-9/11 military response prevented me from using? Will I get a refund for travel that will likely be cancelled (not my choice) in April? Then, sit & spin.

point 1 -- 9/11 was almost 20 years ago are you still bitter about that?

point 2 -- have you called the airline? -- they are being very generous about their cancellation policies now -- we have modified several trips already. not outright refunds -- but 're-booking' for future travel

---------------------------

1) I was asked which part of “non-refundable” I didn’t understand.
2) It’s a group trip (chaperoning for the school), so no decisions yet.

I’m not bitter. I took my chances and rolled snake eyes. I am merely pointing out their hypocrisy.

well if it makes you feel any better -- looks like checks for $$$ to individuals (ie you and me) will be forthcoming before too long

will you send yours back to the Treasury ??

and airlines and related contractors employ tens of thousands and provide a valuable -- even strategic -- service to the US. there is no good that will come from them going bankrupt.

Trump ain't stupid. he won't get taken advantage of.

-------------------------------------

quote:

Originally posted by Sig209:

and airlines and related contractors employ tens of thousands and provide a valuable -- even strategic -- service to the US. there is no good that will come from them going bankrupt.

-------------------------------------

We are NOT talking about Chapter 7 liquidation. We are talking chapter 11 restructuring. What do you mean, "there is no good that will come from them going bankrupt."

There are a lot of good things that will come out of a Chapter 11, from a tax payer perspective. United has been through Chapter 11 before, this ain't their first rodeo, maybe at some point they will learn a lesson.

quote:

Originally posted by 1967Goat:
United has been through Chapter 11 before, this ain't their first rodeo, maybe at some point they will learn a lesson.

What lesson would that be?

quote:

Originally posted by sns3guppy:

quote:

Originally posted by 1967Goat:
United has been through Chapter 11 before, this ain't their first rodeo, maybe at some point they will learn a lesson.

What lesson would that be?

The lesson is not to spend Billions and Billion of dollars on share re-purchases.

My undergrad is in Finance, although I switched to corporate IT over 20 years ago. In Corporate Finance, the main reason that was always taught was companies buy back their stock when they think the stock is undervalued. If they do analysis and they think their stock is worth $50 per share, and its currently trading at $40 per share, they should buy some of the stock back.

However, executives are also concerned with the EPS number, which in many cases determines their bonuses. By buying back their stock they are keeping their EPS number artificially high by reducing the # of shares outstanding.

They should be able to sell the capital stock they bought back over the past 10+ years. Unfortunately for them, the price the can sell their stock for is a lot less than they bought it for. As another poster put it in another thread, they rolled the dice, and it came up snake eyes.

Share repurchases have been a hot topic lately from the liberals. I am by no means against stock repurchases. The company I work for also does it (a $40+ B company). However, if a company is spending so much money on re-purchases that it leaves them vulnerable to cash shortages when an economic downturn happens, then that is on them.

The post/chart from chellim1 on page 5 shows the rate at which they have been buying stock back. It was foolish.

quote:

Originally posted by 1967Goat:

quote:

Originally posted by Sig209:

and airlines and related contractors employ tens of thousands and provide a valuable -- even strategic -- service to the US. there is no good that will come from them going bankrupt.

-------------------------------------

We are NOT talking about Chapter 7 liquidation. We are talking chapter 11 restructuring. What do you mean, "there is no good that will come from them going bankrupt."

There are a lot of good things that will come out of a Chapter 11, from a tax payer perspective. United has been through Chapter 11 before, this ain't their first rodeo, maybe at some point they will learn a lesson.

I'm not sure the shareholders, employees, subcontractors, vendors, associated industry etc would agree with you.

As a taxpayer -- what do I gain from a transaction like that (bankrupcy)?

'bail outs' don't have to mean 'free money'. it's all in the way the packages are crafted.

I maintain Trump isn't going to give away the house.

--------------------------------------

Stop the Coronavirus Corporate Coup
Matt Stoller

Congressional leaders are likely to put a very ugly deal in front of the American people, and if it passes, America may be unrecognizable after this pandemic. But there is a way to stop it, if people on the populist left and people on the populist right work together.

Here's the situation. Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer, and the Trump administration is negotiating a bailout package to address the coronavirus crisis. There's been a lot of chatter about the need to support workers as the economy goes into a freeze. This is happening around the world; the British government, for instance, is willing to pay 80% of worker wages during this downturn for those affected by the crisis.

But in the U.S., our leaders seem to be falling prey to what can only be called a corporate frenzy of favor-seeking. “Any time there is a crisis and Washington is in the middle of it is an opportunity for guys like me," said one lobbyist.

Now first I should say that I don’t know exactly what is going to be in the final bill, because the whole process is opaque and being negotiated right now by some untrustworthy political leaders. We will only find out the details at the last minute. So all I have to go off is rumor and reporting. But if we wait until we know the full contours, it will likely be too late to act. I hope I’m wrong, but the list of what lobbyists are asking for is long, and ugly, and often the requests for money or legislative favors are done to cover up mistakes made before the coronavirus hit.

Take Boeing. The aerospace giant of course wants a $60 billion bailout. Financial problems for this corporation predated the crisis, with the mismanagement that led to the 737 Max as well as defense and space products that don't work (I noted last July a bailout was coming). The corporation paid out $65 billion in stock buybacks and dividends over the last ten years, and it was drawing down credit lines before this crisis hit. It is highly politically connected; the board of the corporation includes Caroline Kennedy, Ronald Reagan’s Chief of Staff Ken Duberstein, three Fortune 100 CEOs, a former US Trade Representative, and two Admirals, one of whom is the board’s only engineer. Using the excuse of the coronavirus, Boeing is trying to get the taxpayer to foot the bill for its errors, so it can go back to making more of them.

But that's not all. Defense contractors want their payments sped up, and I've heard they want to widen a giant loophole called 'other transaction authority' to get around restrictions on profiteering. Elon Musk and Jeff Bezo want "$5 billion in grants or loans to keep commercial space company employees on the job and launch facilities open." They also want the IRS to give them cash for R&D tax credits.

CNBC reported that hotels want $150 billion, restaurants want $145 billion, and manufacturers wants $1.4 trillion. And the International Council of Shopping Centers wants a guarantee of up to $1 trillion. The beer industry wants $5B. Candy industry wants $500M. The New York Times reported that "Adidas is seeking support for a long-sought provision allowing people to use pretax money to pay for gym memberships and fitness equipment." Gyms are of course closed. Meatpackers want special visas so they can undercut wages of their workers, and importers want to stop paying duties they incurred for harming domestic industries for illegally dumping products into the U.S.

Now, I'm not opposed to supporting industries. This is a crisis, and we do not want a lot of the productive capacity of the United States to fall apart because of a pandemic. But the key to supporting enterprises is to make sure that there are strict conditions, so that power doesn't consolidate into the hands of monopolists and financiers cherry-picking distressed assets. Otherwise, America will simply be unrecognizable after this pandemic. CNBC personality Jim Cramer, for instance, is worried that after this pandemic America will have just three retailers. And he's right to be worried about that.

Here's how we can stop it. There are enough members of Congress to act and prevent what really looks less like a relief package and more a corporate coup. However, the problem is that this group is split into different political parties, and Congressional leadership is taking advantage of that dynamic to jam this through. Mitch McConnell wants big business to rule, so he's playing a trick. He is refusing aid to workers. Democrats are negotiating with him to try to get unemployment assistance and social welfare. McConnell knows Dems won't pay attention to corporate bailouts if he takes the public hostage, and Democrats know that they can hand out favors to big business if they just talk about how they got larger checks for workers.

So McConnell will put a bill down in front of Nancy Pelosi, with some good stuff like unemployment insurance, but also the really ugly stuff to hand over America to big business. The corporatists in the Democratic Party will tell her "Pass the corporate coup bill, after all we have to do something right now!" And because she doesn't have the votes from within her own caucus because of these corporatists, and because she doesn't particularly care if America is sold off to big business, she will do that. The only hope is to get together a bipartisan group from the right and the left to oppose this charade.

And there's a precedent.

In 2008, when Congress was on the brink of passing a $700 billion bailout to Wall Street, something astonishing happened. A motley bipartisan group of roughly a hundred members, as well as outside experts, formed what was called the "Skeptic's Caucus," and organized enough votes to take down the package. Congressional leaders then attached some minor tweaks, and forced the package through after the stock market crashed. Ultimately, the skeptics failed, and the bailouts ended up shifting power and wealth to an unaccountable elite class.

But for that brief moment, it became clear that opposition to Congressional leadership on corporate subsidies is possible. We will need another Skeptic's caucus, and quickly. And this time, it can succeed. Because this time, no one is fooled by what is happening. We can see it plainly.

So whether you are a Republican or Democrat, join a new Skeptic's caucus. And demand your member of Congress represent YOU, and not just big business. Help the people by dealing with unemployment, rent, mortgages, not big business executives trying to save their cushy positions.

https://mattstoller.substack.c...virus-corporate-coup

A quick video explanation of why the airlines do not need a bail out.
Instead they should re-issue the stocks they bought back.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmhsNdW24BM#t=25m36s

Buying or selling stocks won't alter the revenue loss on aircraft, wages, and overhead. That goes on regardless. A one hundred fifty million dollar airplane is either earning revenue to offset it's purchase or lease, or it's not. If it's not, the payments still get made.

Those costs are paid not by selling stocks, or changing the value of the stocks, but by revenue through some seven hundred million passenger movements annually, and a lot more cargo. The airlines employ about six hundred thirty thousand full time employees, plus about six hundred seventy thousand pilots. Beyond that, the airlines generate 1.7 trillion in us economic activity, and drive ten million jobs domestically. 7.3% of jobs in the US are connected to commercial aviation, and it accounts for 5.1% of the gross domestic product.

Right now the cargo airlines are stretched about as thin as they can go, trying to keep up with the demand for movement of emergency supplies, consumer demand, etc. With people in homes, more and more mail order is going on and more and more air freight is moving that is normally carried not only by all-cargo carriers, but by passenger airlines, using their cargo capacity.

The buy-back issue impacts the CEO, and stock holders, but doesn't do anything for the operational costs of the airline, which are what are being impacted right now by the loss of flying revenue.