this storm is confounding

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Originally posted by Sig209:
this storm is confounding

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Nature can be a real mother.

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Originally posted by Leemur:
It’s been downgraded to a Cat 4 so hopefully it’s a sign that it’ll continue to weaken at a rapid pace. Hopefully.

That suggests to me, amateur meteorologist that I am, that it's running into that deep cold front that's been proceeding SE (IIRC?) across the country. That's what's projected to turn Dorian north.

That cold front should also power the hurricane down a bit?

Part of the eye has been over the land, which always robs a hurricane of its strength. Its slightly lower wind speed doesn’t necessarily mean it ran into any cold front.

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Originally posted by mojojojo:

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Originally posted by jimmy123x:
...when it starts feeling resistance from the condo's on the beach, but who knows.

Please tell me you’re joking

Resistance from the condo's and land and mainly the HEAT from the land. The water temperature is a lot colder than the land mass temperature. Generally in normal conditions the wind over the ocean will be quite a bit stronger at night because the air cools off much quicker and is less dense than over a large land mass. I forget the weather term for it.


Just looked it up: Convection- The land mass stays much warmer after the sun goes down and continues to heat the air causing the air above the land mass to rise at night, whereas over the water once the sun goes down the air temp drops fairly quickly to closer to the water temp. This air then meets the hotter air and slows down (in normal conditions).
https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/heat


Anyways, it's slowed down to 1mph and at 155 mph wind speed. Which is a good sign. But it hasn't really turned, still going West.

jimmy, I want you to take a break from this thread for 48 hours. You don't know what's going to happen any better than anyone else, and your remarks are proving to be a distraction.

No further posts from you in this thread until after 9/4 @ 12:40 pm EST.

And no further commentary from you guys on jimmy's post for that same interval.

There's a lot at stake with this storm. Let's focus on that, please.

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PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH

155 mph winds and traveling at 1 mph- My thoughts and prayers to those in its path.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/...5+shtml/301754.shtml

Living in coastal SC, I'm strongly hoping this thing stays offshore. Live in evac zone B. Zone A is already under evac order. Anticipate having to leave tomorrow. Never know what you'll come back to. Sucks.

If you don't have any gas to sell, you can price it anyplace under the sun. You can even price it at the 29.9 I used to pump it in high school. Back then no one thought it was a bargain.

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Originally posted by braillediver:
The Bahamas- Here's elevation above sea level. Not much for most of the islands.

http://www.floodmap.net/Elevat...yElevationMap/?ct=BS

The Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, are really sand bars. I am amazed that they have stayed intact as long as they have.

I am praying for the best for the people there.



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Originally posted by rburg:
If you don't have any gas to sell, you can price it anyplace under the sun. You can even price it at the 29.9 I used to pump it in high school. Back then no one thought it was a bargain.

Yesterday, Regular was $2.05 a gallon here and premium $2.45, and plenty to sell.

Yep, back in the day I could fill my '61 VW with premium for $3.25...total, not per gallon!!

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Originally posted by maladat:
The Current NHC prediction still has Dorian making the turn north, but coming closer to the Florida coast before if does so.

This is where things start to get really dicey. The storm is essentially stalled over the Bahamas and the NWS is predicting an eye wall collapse and reform in the coming hours. Where the storm heads from here and how powerful it remains is anyone's best guess. Given where I am I'm hoping the weather guys have guessed right and that HIGH pressure front turns this storm north really soon.

Meteorologist for NBC in Ft Myers said the high pressure ridge in the Atlantic is moving further east and thus no longer pushing Dorain to the west. This also has opened a path for Dorian to the north. He then said a low pressure trough in the Gulf is moving east. The lows have steering currents that rotate counter clockwise and these are supposed to get Dorian moving north. As it moves north, another high pressure ridge currently over Indiana is supposed to move southeast keeping Dorian offshore of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

I certainly hope he's right.

Currently it's looks like on radar that I'm on the very outskirts of the southern most feeder bands. I consider it at best a minor inconvenience compared to the mass destruction and suffering of those who weathered the storm and are currently still getting slammed in the Bahamas. My heart goes out to those folks, this storm needs to move on and give those folks some much needed relief.

Just turned on the Weather channel cause my French in-laws were actually curious about the storm. It says it's stationary. So it's just sitting there beating the crap out of the Bahamas? Dang. Godspeed to those people.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

That suggests to me, amateur meteorologist that I am, that it's running into that deep cold front that's been proceeding SE (IIRC?) across the country. That's what's projected to turn Dorian north.

That cold front should also power the hurricane down a bit?

A hurricane is self-powered. That is, it's drawing energy from warm, moist air, and rotation from low pressure and coriolis effect. It will move according to pressure gradient.

A cold front will be an airmass with similar properties throughout, but they're moved by pressure gradient, and higher pressure east of the system will move it north, and low pressure west of the system will move it north. Cooler waters will move it north, but the trend is for warmer and warmer waters north, these days.

A cold front meeting a warm, moist airmas produces thunderstorms and the more violent weather . Force thunderstorms into a cold air mass and the warm, moist air rises up or is pushed up faster, with faster changes and a more violent response. It makes thunderstorms bigger, downdrafts stronger, spawns tornados, etc. The bands of the hurricane supply hundreds of existing thunderstorms; run those into a cold front and it doesn't sap the energy, it extracts it, violently with large rainfall, hail, damaging winds, etc.

Some of the people in the Bahamas have been in the eye for hours. I can't imagine that. Sitting there in the calm, knowing it isn't over yet.

When Charley's eye went over me, the calm lasted about 5-10 minutes. I called my parents in Michigan and asked them if the storm had passed or if it was just the eye. I didn't want to come out if it wasn't over. Charley was moving at a good clip and even though it was Cat.4, it was small.

Again, I can't imagine what they are going through.

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Originally posted by trapper189:
Some of the people in the Bahamas have been in the eye for hours. I can't imagine that. Sitting there in the calm, knowing it isn't over yet.

It was just on TV. There are people kite surfing in the eye!

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Originally posted by ensigmatic:

It was just on TV. There are people kite surfing in the eye!

That wouldn't be my first choice, but if you have nothing else to do. I feel a little better for those folks now.

Now stationary and downgraded to Cat 3:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/w...-devastated-n1049011