My parents live on a boat in the keys. Friends from their marina ran over in a 3 engined 40’ center console - Deep Impact my dad says. Had family at Treasure. Boat was stolen at gunpoint with supplies on board. Law of the jungle. Waiting on details but cannot say I’m surprised. Help through relief organizations.

Good article on how to help: Helping after Dorian

Btw - nothing stands up to 220 mph gusts, 180 sustained and 20’+ storm surge. If this had hit Florida we would be talking about tens of thousands that would be homeless (estimate is 13,000 homes destroyed in Bahamas) and even more mass casualties. We got flat lucky and blessed.

quote:

bathymetry has changed, and uncharted hazards abound

From the link above imploring private boaters NOT to come.

The change in nautical charts would be something to see.

quote:

Originally posted by braillediver:

quote:

bathymetry has changed, and uncharted hazards abound

From the link above imploring private boaters NOT to come.

The change in nautical charts would be something to see.

Good luck in seeing that. Almost nothing has been re-sounded in the Bahamas since the British left in 1978.

The Coast Guard ANT team spent plenty of time after the Gulf hurricanes of Rita and Katrina putting the navigational buoys back where they belonged.

I do not know how many sig forum member have been to the abacos, this is a great website to view destruction caused by Dorian.

https://www.hopetownsailingclub.com/

this is a great video (from helicopter) view of elbow cay/hope town. overturned barges, boats hundreds of feet from shore line and houses, demolished, some overturned from their foundations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beXg9egFcAs

this makes me sad, as elbow cay has been my "slice of paradise" for the last 10 years.

john

quote:

Btw - nothing stands up to 220 mph gusts, 180 sustained and 20’+ storm surge. If this had hit Florida we would be talking about tens of thousands that would be homeless (estimate is 13,000 homes destroyed in Bahamas) and even more mass casualties. We got flat lucky and blessed.

I read a quote today that resonated with me and to those who downplayed the hazards:

Mark Russell, an Army veteran who has lived in South Carolina much of his life, went to a hurricane shelter right away. As for those who hesitated to do so, he said: "If they go through it one time, maybe they'll understand." That sums it up perfectly.

quote:

Originally posted by mojojojo:
Gee. If only the Bahamas had had more condos this might not have happened huh jimmy?

That post should've been elaborated on. But there were several reasons I felt it would turn later. The current from the Gulf Stream (located between Freeport and Florida) pushes the water/ocean North at about 5 knots. The wind resistance/sheer from the condo's lining the beach that are 100-200' high, and the buildings are only 20' apart lining the entire beach, sort of like it hitting elevation. And, the land heat and what it does to the air over the land and the heat and air rises (convection) and the air is warmer and more humid than that over the ocean since the water temp is lower than the land temp. Mountainous islands (such as the D.R.) tend to steer the hurricanes a lot of times, so why not large tall buildings that are right next to each other up and down the entire beach. That's my theory anyways...…. which is worth exactly what you paid for it...….



But, to be quite frank. The best meteorologist on this planet cannot accurately predict where a hurricane will go or what it will do with any great percentage of accuracy. Basically they are studying the other weather patterns and making an educated guess at where it will go. If 1 meteorologist could predict where every hurricane would go with 30 miles of accuracy they'd be a billionaire. A hurricane goes wherever the hell it wants to and many times completely fools everyone.


"Land interaction also may change the track of a hurricane, especially when the land is mountainous. Mountains can disrupt the center of a hurricane’s circulation, which may then reform on the other side of the mountains away from the trajectory of the hurricane’s track prior to crossing the mountains."

www.hurricanescience.org/scien...e/hurricanemovement/

quote:

Originally posted by eltonr:
I do not know how many sig forum member have been to the abacos, this is a great website to view destruction caused by Dorian.

https://www.hopetownsailingclub.com/

this is a great video (from helicopter) view of elbow cay/hope town. overturned barges, boats hundreds of feet from shore line and houses, demolished, some overturned from their foundations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beXg9egFcAs

this makes me sad, as elbow cay has been my "slice of paradise" for the last 10 years.

john

I've been going to the Abacos for 15 years and it is (WAS) very nice. I was just there the end of last year. It is beautiful but doesn't hold a candle in natural beauty to the Exumas. I'd suggest this year heading to Staniel Cay Yacht Club and exploring the area North to Compass Cay. It's breath taking.

quote:

Originally posted by ZSMICHAEL:

I read a quote today that resonated with me and to those who downplayed the hazards:

Mark Russell, an Army veteran who has lived in South Carolina much of his life, went to a hurricane shelter right away. As for those who hesitated to do so, he said: "If they go through it one time, maybe they'll understand." That sums it up perfectly.

I don't believe anyone downplayed the hazards. The probability of a direct hit to Orlando, yes. Never the hazards.

Charleston,SC's market street is 1' underwater and 220,000 people already without power. Storm is currently 65 miles SE of Charleston.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weat...QHIa?ocid=spartandhp

It's just part of living in a state on the coast, the odds are that a large storm like this will impact your state at some point.

Best to prep the things you will need without having to shop for them like the panic'd herd and sit back and wait...

I’m 5 minutes from downtown Charleston. From what I’ve seen and has been sent to me, there’s certainly flooding downtown, but nothing more than the last few storms to roll through in my time here.

I just drove around here in Mt. Pleasant, lots of small tree branches down. Other than the wind gusts from time to time it’s pretty much a rainy day. High tide is due in about an hour, that will make it or break it for many.

But, it's the Century of the Storm!

For my friends and family that live in South Florida, the impact of these storms is really dependent on direction of storm and where it hits. If it hits the keys coming over Florida Bay, Bayside keys get flooded with Surge. If it comes like Irma, then ocean side gets flooded. If it comes to where I live in Boca Raton (a whopping 12' above sea level) we have zero concerns about CAT4 and down as surge and wind might do some damage...but all our homes are high enough and built to roughly 165mph standard.

Cat5 that sits and 20 foot storm surge, yeah then we get worried. Cat 4 makes us nervous. Cat 3 and down is inconvenient.

The local press coverage here (WPTV) does pretty good job keeping the hype down. Channel 7 in Miami makes CNN look like reasoned pro. Weather channel is a mix - heard one Dr. calling out the coverage as hype and refusing to assess pictures of damage as that would be guessing without facts. Then they go stand on the beach in foul weather gear....

As is usual today - gather the facts and make your decision. Spaghettimodels.com (Mike) does a decent job of this.

I personally liked Director of the National Hurricane Center Max Mayfield, he was a great forecaster who joined Ch 10 later. A very rational chap.

The winds are starting to pick up outside but still only sporadic rain. Looks like it will get to us early in the AM (I'm the dot in the middle). So far it hasn't seemed to bad, let's hope it stays that way.

We have a house on Oak Island. In-laws’ house is a block away. Basically where the barely legible 0 on the land is between the 11 and 12 o’clock to the eye. It’s getting slammed right now.

Hopefully everything survives. I hate hurricanes.

Looks like the buoy off Oak Island is showing 11' waves as of 2100. It was showing 15' waves at 1700. I just found the NOAA Buoy Reports app a few hours ago and have been playing with it.