Funny but I didn't realize Sweden and Finland were not part of NATO.

Seems kind of dumb not to join. I can see Switzerland's historical "neutral" position, but the others? They better join soon or risk invasion and watch the rest of NATO "condemn" Russia but not do anything substantive in their defense.

Putin's opposition to NATO presumes that a unified Europe where all countries belong to NATO is a threat to Russia. That defensive military placements in NATO countries near Russia will result in offensive use, once every chess piece is in place. That is how he thinks, because that is what he would do. NATO is only a threat to Russia's ability to invade surrounding countries and install his stooges in their governments.

And Russia, for lack of a better word, pretty much sucks at most everything. They don't manufacture much of anything the rest of the world wants, except Vodka and Caviar. Years of Soviet rule resulted in a lowest common denominator attitude in industry. The only thing that was worth a shit was military tech, but even that is decades behind now. All they have is natural resources to sell. Their economy is smaller than Italy. They are basically a 3rd/2nd world country with a lot of nukes.

But Putin is an old Cold War veteran that sees conquest of former Soviet countries as the key Russia's future. He has a hammer and the problems are all nails. Developing much better domestic manufacturing through foreign investment and willingness to let western companies manage operations until the locals learn how to do it right is what China did. Look at China's rise in the last 30 years, and Russia's stagnation. China started behind Russia, and they have far far surpassed them now.

With Russia marginalized, China will get even MORE foreign investment from those divesting from Russia, and will be the only trading partner Russia has. Notice how this entire situation works to the benefit of China?

I remember all the talk about how countries need military action to verify their weapons and tactics work. Maybe this is OJT (on the job training for those that don't work)

quote:

Originally posted by Lefty Sig:

Putin's opposition to NATO presumes that a unified Europe where all countries belong to NATO is a threat to Russia. That defensive military placements in NATO countries near Russia will result in offensive use, once every chess piece is in place. That is how he thinks, because that is what he would do. NATO is only a threat to Russia's ability to invade surrounding countries and install his stooges in their governments.

I agree with your larger points, but the above can't be mentioned too often or overemphasized.

NATO is a defensive alliance. But (many) Russian leaders are infamous for paranoia when it comes to the possibility of invasion from the West, and it's been difficult for them to lose the security blanket of surrounding puppet states, that they enjoyed for decades.

I'm not suggesting that the West hasn't made mistakes in regards to Russia and Ukraine, but no one should underestimate Russian paranoia while President Putin justifies his invasions.

Both the pro-Ukrainian and Russian apologist propaganda mills are up and running.

quote:

Originally posted by Modern Day Savage:
[N]o one should underestimate Russian paranoia while President Putin justifies his invasions.

Bears repeating and emphasizing.

excellent summary as of yesterday:

https://www.understandingwar.o...nflict-assessment-13


Key Takeaways March 2

Russian forces resumed offensive operations against Kyiv’s western outskirts on March 2 after pausing for resupply from February 27 to March 1 but failed to secure any additional territory.

Russian forces launched offensive operations in Zhytomyr Oblast, expanding their envelopment of Kyiv further west than ISW previously assessed—likely to outflank stronger-than-anticipated Ukrainian resistance and limited Ukrainian counterattacks in Kyiv’s outskirts.

Russian forces renewed advances toward northeastern Kyiv on March 2, reaching a line approximately 65km from the city center on that axis.

Russian forces assaulted central Kharkiv and continued to heavily bombard the city on March 2, likely increasing civilian casualties.

Russian forces fully encircled Mariupol as of March 2 and are conducting a deliberate campaign to destroy critical civilian infrastructure and residential areas in a likely attempt to force the city to surrender.

Russian forces continued to reduce pockets of Ukrainian resistance in Kherson on March 2 and will likely secure the city in the next 24 hours if they have not done so already.

The Russian Ministry of Defense released implausibly low Russian fatality counts for the first time on March 2, preparing the Russian population for the arrival of injured and killed service members back to Russia.

The Kremlin made inconsistent statements regarding negotiations with Ukraine but agreed to a second round of talks scheduled for March 3.

The Kremlin continued trying to control the domestic and international narrative around the invasion by restricting Russian citizens’ freedom of speech and access to information while framing Ukraine and the West as aggressors.

The Kremlin continued to struggle with Western sanctions while it set conditions for longer-term domestic capabilities.

Ukrainian defense officials claimed Ukrainian forces thwarted an assassination attempt targeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after a tip from anti-war Russian intelligence officers on March 1.

Western states announced additional sanctions targeting Russia and Belarus while more private companies suspended operations in Russia.

NATO and EU countries continued delivering lethal military aid to Ukraine on March 2.

International organizations and Western leaders are increasingly concerned about Russia’s indiscriminate targeting of civilians and use of banned weapons as civilian casualties rise.

The UN General Assembly voted on March 2 overwhelmingly in favor of a motion demanding Russia stop military operations in Ukraine; China and India abstained.

Record-setting refugee flows began to strain the support structures in states neighboring Ukraine on March 2.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Ukrainian officials urged caution as Russian forces advanced toward another Ukrainian nuclear power plant on March 1 and 2.

Global oil and gas prices continued to skyrocket despite Western efforts to avoid sanctioning Russia’s energy sector.

Strategy : Russian forces are engaged in four primary efforts at this time. The description of these efforts differs from previous reports’ discussion of axes because of the dynamic nature of the Russian military campaign

1) Main effort—Kyiv;

2) Supporting effort #1—Kharkiv;

3) Supporting effort #2—Mariupol; and

4) Supporting effort #3—Kherson and west.


--------------------------------------------------

quote:

Originally posted by Lefty Sig:
Funny but I didn't realize Sweden and Finland were not part of NATO.

Seems kind of dumb not to join. I can see Switzerland's historical "neutral" position, but the others?

Sweden has also historically been neutral, dating back to their declaration of a policy of neutrality after the Napoleonic Wars. (Though during WW2, the extent of their "neutrality" was debatable, as at various times they did things that explicitly aided either the Axis or the Allies.) They have had a similar "armed neutrality" mindset as Switzerland; their military has always maintained excellent capabilities. However, Sweden has been moving away from that 200ish year tradition of neutrality over the past decade or so, signing some recent mutual defense pacts with other European countries, providing jets to fly combat patrols to enforce the no-fly zone during NATO's intervention in Libya, plus sharing intelligence with the US and various European countries. As a result, I think it's only a matter of time before Sweden joins NATO.

And while they don't have a history of hundreds of years of neutrality like Sweden/Switzerland do, Finland prided itself on its neutrality during the Cold War, aligning itself with neither the East or the West. Though this was mostly a pragmatic attempt to maintain their own independence, as they neither wanted to fall back under Russian sway by joining the Eastern Bloc nor give the Soviets an excuse to try to take them over again by making overtures towards NATO. I think Finland joining NATO is also a good possibility, though not as strong of one as Sweden.


Austria and Ireland are also neutral European nations, with Ireland adopting that policy in the 1930s, and Austia adopting it after the end of WW2. But unlike Sweden/Finland, they're not on the front lines of a potential NATO/Russia war.

reported T80 disabled / captured

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/.../1499428364196716544

-----------------

quote:

Originally posted by RogueJSK:

quote:

Originally posted by Lefty Sig:
Funny but I didn't realize Sweden and Finland were not part of NATO.

Seems kind of dumb not to join. I can see Switzerland's historical "neutral" position, but the others?

Sweden has also historically been neutral, dating back to the adoption of a policy of neutrality after the Napoleonic Wars. (Though during WW2, the extent of their "neutrality" was debatable, as at various times they did things that explicitly aided either the Axis or the Allies.) They had had a similar "armed neutrality" mindset as Switzerland, in fact. Their military has always maintained excellent capabilities. However, Sweden has been moving away from that 200ish year tradition of neutrality in the past decade or so, signing some recent mutual defense pacts with other European countries, providing jets to fly combat patrols to enforce the no-fly zone during NATO's intervention in Libya, plus sharing intelligence with the US and various European countries. I think it's only a matter of time before Sweden joins NATO.

Similarly, while they don't have the long history of neutrality like Sweden/Switzerland, Finland prided itself on its neutrality during the Cold War, aligning itself with neither the East or the West. Though this was mostly a pragmatic attempt to maintain their own independence, as they neither wanted to fall back under Russian sway by joining the Eastern Bloc nor give the Soviets an excuse to try to take them over again by making overtures towards NATO. I think Finland joining NATO is a possibility, though not as strong of one as Sweden.


Austria and Ireland are also neutral European nations, with Ireland adopting that policy in the 1930s, and Austia adopting it after the end of WW2. But unlike Sweden/Finland, they're not on the front lines of a potential NATO/Russia war.

It's also worth pointing out that just because Sweden and Finland aren't in NATO, that doesn't mean they're totally on their own in this.

Sweden and Finland are both members of the EU, and the EU has a mutual defense agreement (since 2009) broadly similar to NATO's (with the obvious exception that the US and Canada are not included and the less-obvious exception that a couple of "neutral" members of the EU are excluded from being required to provide military aid).

That, of course, leaves open the question of whether the EU members would actually respond as required by treaty obligation (the same question has been brought up repeatedly for NATO), and how effectively they would respond without US involvement.

Finland did beat Russia for the Olympic Gold in Mens Ice Hockey. I might be worried if I were them.

quote:

Originally posted by Graniteguy:
Finland did beat Russia for the Olympic Gold in Mens Ice Hockey. I might be worried if I were them.

Even better cause for concern: Winter War: The 1939 Soviet Invasion Of Finland In Crystal-Clear Photos and The Bizarre ‘Sausage War’ That Inspired Hitler

There are more than a few parallels beween that 1939 conflict and what's happening in Ukraine now.

Looks like some partisans bagged themselves a collaborator. (I read this line in my head with a thick French accent.)

Pro-Russian Mayor of City in Eastern Ukraine Who Welcomed Putin’s Invasion is Found Shot Dead in The Street After Being Kidnapped From His Home

The pro-Russian mayor of a city in eastern Ukraine who welcomed President Vladimir Putin’s invasion was 'shot dead' after being kidnapped from his home, it has been announced.

Vlodymyr Struk, of Kreminna in Luhansk, was killed on Tuesday and suffered a 'gunshot wound to the heart' after he was 'abducted from his home', according to his wife.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/ne...-kidnapped-home.html

quote:

Originally posted by mbinky:
Looks like some partisans bagged themselves a collaborator. (I read this line in my head with a thick French accent.)

Pro-Russian Mayor of City in Eastern Ukraine Who Welcomed Putin’s Invasion is Found Shot Dead in The Street After Being Kidnapped From His Home

The pro-Russian mayor of a city in eastern Ukraine who welcomed President Vladimir Putin’s invasion was 'shot dead' after being kidnapped from his home, it has been announced.

Vlodymyr Struk, of Kreminna in Luhansk, was killed on Tuesday and suffered a 'gunshot wound to the heart' after he was 'abducted from his home', according to his wife.

he chose poorly

---------------------------

“he chose poorly”

Treason is always a crap shoot. You’re just as likely to be removed by your new pals as by the countrymen you turned against. Karma is a bitch.

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:
Karma is a bitch.

I never got the logic behind voluntarily turning coat. I agree that a traitor is at risk from both sides (who the hell would ever depend on him?). The thing is, though, that whether one's new friends stick around or not, one's countrymen aren't going anywhere.

From Global Military Info : "Local mayor near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has said that the plant is on fire & active shelling/firefights are ongoing." That particular power plant is the largest nuclear reactor in Europe. I'll fess up and admit that I tuned into CNN (for the first time in a very long time) a short while ago. Don't know where it's coming from, but they have a live feed of a camera focused on the plant. It's clearly on fire. You see tracer rounds being fired at the plant. Ukrainian authorities are saying that firemen are unable to approach the plant due to the firefight. Some talking heads are speculating on camera about a possibility of a meltdown. The consensus, it's very unlikely. Most of the people I am listening to seem to saying that a Chernoble style explosion is very unlikely, but the chances of a radiation leak are growing the longer this drags on.

There are a couple of obvious questions. The first being why would the Russians be so stupid? The answer provided by the talking heads seemed to be that the local Russian commander may be uninformed or too focused on his order to take the plant to consider the unintended consequences.

Makes you wonder if some of the European countries (like Poland) who would be affeced by a leak might consider an ultimatum to Putin - back off the plant or we intervene.

^^^ Yeah, after Chernobyl a nuclear threat in Europe is a nuclear threat in Europe to a lot of Europeans whether it's missiles or nuclear plant mishaps.

Radiation leaks are certainly possible, but something like Chernobyl, a massive meltdown, or disaster movie size nuclear reactor explosion is highly unlikely. This type of Nuclear power plant is completely different than the one at Chernobyl.

So I've been hearing...

quote:

Originally posted by sigfreund:

quote:

Originally posted by Modern Day Savage:
[N]o one should underestimate Russian paranoia while President Putin justifies his invasions.

Bears repeating and emphasizing.

Setting aside the possibility of Putin being mentally deteriorated, I'm not for buying Russia's supposed "paranoia." That's like giving validity to a wife beater's excuse that some of the things his wife does really, really drives him up the wall that he has to smack her sometimes.

Just because you are paranoid, doesn't mean someone is not out to get you

quote:

Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
^^^ Yeah, after Chernobyl a nuclear threat in Europe is a nuclear threat in Europe to a lot of Europeans whether it's missiles or nuclear plant mishaps.

So Putin "nuked" the Ukraine without nuking the Ukraine.....good thing the wind blows east---he did the Russians in too...........