quote:

Originally posted by 220-9er:
Why worry. Biden's drawn a red line in the snow. Putin wouldn't dare.

When the Soviets draw that red line, it will be long and bloody. Pray that it does not happen.

quote:

Originally posted by 220-9er:
This isn't an endorsement of Putin, just a look at the situation from the Russian perspective.

They don't have an ocean to protect them from their historic enemies. They can and have each walked into the others country during a war.
Ukraine is right next door. Much like Mexico or Canada is to us.

We feel some insecurity when Russia has made inroads into Cuba, Venezuela and other central American countries. We fought the Vietnam War and in Korea, on the other side of the world, under the domino theory. To keep them out. Some may remember the Cuban Missile Crisis. We made some mistakes in judgement in the execution in those but the theory wasn't without some merit.

They look at Ukraine as the last domino in NATO's march to mother Russia. They lost all of their buffer when the Soviet Union fell and if Ukraine ever becomes a NATO member they are surrounded by enemies, in their view anyway. Some cooperation with China is just a marriage of convenience right now, much as ours was with them during WW2. As soon as that ended,our artificial friendship did too.

If this does become a hot land war, they are right next door and their forces are under one country's command.

The US & NATO need to move a lot of troops and equipment a long way and there is really no central command or common will or even vision on our side. Look how long the build up took before Iraq. Where are the countries efforts on the west side of Ukraine?

The only real counter we have is the threat of economic harm to Russia. We'd both be crazy to threaten or actually use nukes. Other than that, we are bluffing them.

Well, to add something to the "from the Russian's perspective" idea: They probably worry a bit about internal opposition movements, e.g., Navalny and the opposition in Russia, and the opposition in Belarus. (Belarus is, for all intents and purposes, part of Russia). It was an internal opposition movement that toppled their guy in the Ukraine, Yanukovych, in 2014 - with a little help from Europe and the U.S.

This weekend I thought I would put my time to use during the snow emergency and research the logistics and terrain of Ukraine along with the surrounding areas.

I also wanted to ascertain if this could be the next "Fulda Gap", and since I am looking at transferring to a NG Armor/ Armored Cav unit this could be of interest to me.

((Way way way back in the day when I first enlisted in 1992 as a 19D Cav Scout every training scenario was based on the Fulda Gap.))


From the basic research that I conducted, the terrain and infrastructure will be a logistical nightmare..

For instance, Poland and the Baltic NATO members have roads that cannot accommodate the more than sixty-ton M1 Abrams, Challenger II, and Leopard tanks. The roads in Poland alone cannot handle eight- to ten-ton semi-trucks.

During a gaming scenario it came to the attention of many senior commanders that trying to shuttle armor, artillery, supplies by rail is its own quagmire due to the rails being set apart wider than the Western standard. This means that trains must be painstakingly unloaded, then reloaded near Poland’s border with Lithuania. It can add days to a major movement of troops.

From many of the reports I have read, these are some of the reasons that NATO keeps a relatively low number of tanks, 130, as opposed to Russia’s some 760 tanks within rapid striking distance of the Baltic states and Poland.

I wonder if could turn into the new Fulda Gap or will it be like Kosovo where the US has a Peacekeeping/observer contingent and rotates units.

I can vision troopers (me included) changing and repairing thrown tracks on Bradley's and Abrams.

((I hate snow... ))

I don't think it will get to a ground war.
Maybe a few sanctions thrown around here and there but I think everything will simmer down on the outside. Now on the inside, I think Putin will use his one branch to install the right government, and build outward.

I will say that the two statements that this administration has made: The first about how much of an invasion Putin does will decide on response, and this about not being able to evacuate personnel has really shown/re-affirmed where loyalties and strength lie.

If I was Ukraine, I would keep digging tank ditches, start arming youngsters, and prepare hedge hog tactics.
Plus I would have ZERO faith in the US helping...

Babylon Bee Alert

Ukraine Invites Kyle Rittenhouse To Guard Their Border

KIEV, UKRAINE—As Russian troops increased their threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence, the Ukrainian military showed their tactical prowess by asking Kyle Rittenhouse to come and guard their border with Russia.

“Yo, Kyle, hope all is well. Hey listen, our citizens are under threat from Putin and his d-bag army,” texted Ukrainian Minister of Defense, Sergei Ukrainovich to America’s national hero, Kyle Rittenhouse. “Could u do us a solid and come guard our border? Bring ur AR-15 lol thx.”

While some praised the move as militarily brilliant as well as based, citing the fact that no military has the capacity to withstand the freedom-spewing courage of Mr. Rittenhouse, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin criticized the move, citing Kyle Rittenhouse’s status as a cis-white male, and reminding everyone that guarding Ukraine would require him to CROSS STATE LINES. 

“President Biden is weighing the deployment of troops to Ukraine,” said Secretary Austin, “But we’re asking for more time while the President looks for a bathroom scale large enough to do so.”

Eyewitnesses inside the Kremlin say Putin responded to Ukraine’s bold defensive move by tearing off his shirt, grabbing his Kalashnikov, and riding a bear toward the Ukrainian border.


https://babylonbee.com/news/uk...r-border?appView=ios

^^^

Think Gen Milley has called Putin yet to let him know what Biden plans on doing?

My guess; since Mr Potato Head has already announced a "minor incursion" is acceptable, Russia will do exactly that.

Then, once Mr Potato Head is focused on that and Putin explaining a 500 mile deep front is minor, China will overrun Taiwan and Xi will tell Potato Head, "and, what exactly are you going to do about it?"

I think Russia, China and North Korea are on the same party line (telephone) and are coordinating a Whack-A-Mole strategy to keep Mr. Potato Head busy. Iran is probably pissed they aren't included in the circuit..

Potatus is going to flex his leg hairs with Putin, we get our oil for our vehicles and ships from Putin, ok? NATO states get there’s from Putin also? This is going to work out well.

quote:

Originally posted by mbinky:
Think Gen Milley has called Putin yet to let him know what Biden plans on doing?

Yes

It is part of the elites plan to destroy America.
War with Russia is coming and Brandon is leading the charge.
Hillary was setting the groundwork for a war with Russia during the 2016 election campaign with her statements about making Syria a no fly zone due to the Syrian gas attacks on civilian populations which were almost certainly a false flag operation.
Russia would never accept a No-Fly zone over Syria as Syria has been a vasal state of Russia for decades and Russia has a major military port there. We missed the bullet when she lost, however it's now Brandon's turn to lead us into a war with Russia over nothing that matters to anyone but the power brokers who are determined to destroy America one way or another.

Someone's tin foil has slipped off the rabbit ears.

He's really not that far off the mark.

Concur.

quote:

Originally posted by m58:
It is part of the elites plan to destroy America.

Plan B for the Great Reset.

Covid was Plan A and it failed...so far.

quote:

Originally posted by Gustofer:

quote:

Originally posted by m58:
It is part of the elites plan to destroy America.

Plan B for the Great Reset.

Covid was Plan A and it failed...so far.

Everything could be subservient to the Great Reset, it surely does seem to be a thing.

And another wrinkle in the crisis appears. Russia announces plans to conduct live fire naval exercises... off the coast of Ireland.

Whether an expansion of their projection of power, an implied threat, or a diversion, Russia is most certainly sending a message to NATO countries.

[Note: Twitter Tweet w/ map, and hyperlinks at linked website article.]

==================

The Russian Navy is well used to conducting live firing exercises at times of tensions. This images is from a joint exercise between the Russian, Chinese and Iranian Navies in January 2022. An AK-630 anti-aircraft gun of the Udaloy class destroyer is being used in an anti-surface role. Russian MoD

Russian Navy Live Firing Off Irish Coast During Tensions In Europe

The Russian Navy is planning live firing exercise within Ireland's EEZ (exclusive economic zone). It is an ambiguous move in a complex naval situation. It comes at a time of significant tensions in Europe.

H I Sutton 24 Jan 2022

The Russian Navy has announced plan gunnery and missile firing 160 nautical miles off Mizen Head. The exercises, from February 3rd to 8th, are just on the edge of the drop-off into deep water. It is also within Ireland’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Coming at a time of heightened tension between Russia and the West, this highlights Ireland’s strategic position.

Of all the world’s ocean, it is interesting that Russia selected this small area in the Irish EEZ. It is far from Russia’s operating bases and regular training areas. So the location seems chosen for strategic or political reasons.

The warning notice was shared on social media and has been confirmed via other sources by Naval News. It blocks the area from 04:00 to 14:00 local time daily.

While Russia is within its rights to conduct the exercise in this location, it is unusual. The EEZ is not to be confused with a country’s sovereign waters, but it is the area Ireland has special rights to. Yet the Russian Navy could easily have picked an area slightly further west which was not in anyone’s EEZ.

The Irish Aviation Authority has raised concerns about the exercises with the Russian Government. The live firing will disrupt civilian air traffic over the area. It is also in the shipping lanes connecting Europe and North America. And, interestingly, likely to be in the general area of a myriad of submarine communication cables (SCC). These connect Europe and America, mostly routing through Ireland or the United Kingdom. They are vital for internet and military communications.

Gunnery and missile firing is not the same as operations on undersea cables. But the vulnerability of the cables in the area have been highlighted before. In August last year the Russian Navy special mission ship (read ‘spy ship’) Yantar was noted loitering near cables off northwest Ireland. This vessel is equipped for seabed surveys and can deploy a range of crewed and uncrewed submersibles.

On the latest information we have Yantar is not in the area. So she is unlikely to be involved this time. But the cables angle remains. Russia has a lot of assets, and strategic focus, on undersea cables.

Gunnery Targets

The cordoned off area is relatively small. Analysts believe that it is likely to involve short range gunnery and / or missiles. It is unlikely to relate to long range missiles launches. Additionally, long ranged patrol aircraft operating from Russia may be involved.

It is not reported whether it will involve submarines or surface ships. The latter seems more plausible at this point but we should keep and open mind.

Despite Ireland occupying a strategic position on Europe’s’ western flank, it is comparatively less defended. The Irish Naval service (tSeirbhís Chabhlaigh) has a some offshore patrol vessels which could try to monitor the situation. And the air arm has two CASA CN-235 maritime patrol aircraft. However it is not part of NATO and its organic defense capabilities are very limited compared to Russia.

Ireland’s Strategic Position

Ireland may have been chosen because it is not part of NATO, yet is within the EU and strategically important to both the US and UK. Russia’s motives can only be speculated at, but it is hard to separate this from the NATO reaction to Russia’s threats on Ukraine.

The area is the opposite side of Europe to potential flashpoints in Ukraine, the Baltics and Eastern Europe. It is also far enough away, in both distance and time, to not be directly associated with the amphibious ships Russia is sending from the Baltic towards Ukraine. Those are passing through the English Channel and currently heading south towards the Strait of Gibraltar.

The Russian Navy now has land-attack cruise missiles aboard many submarines and ships. This has created a new dimension to the North Atlantic arena. Missiles launched from the vicinity of the warning area could hit European capitals within minutes. And flying across Irish airspace for some of their journey may be advantageous.

Of course there is always the possibility that whatever is planned will not be carried out. Or that is was never intended to be. Issuing notices in other people’s back yards (and in a sense this means US, UK), is itself a way to send messages. Or to cause a distraction, or diversion, for actions elsewhere.

IF Putin invades the next couple of months is best while the ground is still hard.
The melting snow and spring rains will hamper his armor.
I am hoping the Ukrainians realize this and use it to their advantage should an invasion occur.

I suppose his handlers are stupid enough to try to show a ‘tough Joe’.

What a bunch of buffoons.