quote:

Originally posted by Excam_Man:
I know nothing about Hurricanes.
How far inland can this thing reach?

Someone posted about possibly staying in Tallahassee. Assuming that would be far enough inland, to be safe?

Hurricane winds (74mph) at 50 miles from the eye. So if the eye goes up the eastern coast, Tallahassee will probably be windy and wet, but nothing like the real thing.

What's the likely hood that this monster could go up the Gulf side?

quote:

Originally posted by Excam_Man:
What's the likely hood that this monster could go up the Gulf side?

All the updates seem to be shifting east. It's still a crapshoot, but I'd say very unlikely.

quote:

Originally posted by jimmy123x:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by Dtech:
I'm still thinking the average of the computer models give or take a few miles will come to pass and that the eye will not make landfall in South Florida.

Problem with that thinking is the European model usually ends up being the most accurate.

I hope, for your sake, that of our other members, a friend of mine who lives just south of Daytona, and the rest of the residents of Florida that you're right, but, if I lived in that area I think I'd be outta there if I could be.

Well over the past 36 hours they have gradually kept shifting the track eastward. First it was landfall at Key West, then Marathon, then Key Largo, now Miami......So hopefully it keeps turning more eastward.....

^^^This. We've got all of tomorrow and Friday for this storm to continue to shift eastward. And living in Orlando, you can bet that's exactly what I'm going to be hoping for. Now if that high pressure zone would push further down into Florida....

As a former resident of Savannah (and I guess Charleston if you count my time in the VA Medical Center there) the current track of this thing would be catastrophic for those areas

Part of the problem with the low country is the cities are pretty much built in the 100 year flood plain

So if you get say, a 15 foot storm surge, there really is no impetus for that water to leave again

Savannah has been living on luck alone for a century...Floyd was the last really major hurricane that everyone thought would hit and it turned just at the last second

This thing is the size of Floyd with the strength of Andrew

This would be very, very bad

As it is, now living in virginia it seems for sure this thing eventually gets to me, it's just what path it takes and how strong it is when it gets here

Last two to cause major damage in my area were Isabel and Irene

Rest assured, I will be paying close attention to any future named storms that are women's names that begin with an "I"

quote:

Originally posted by Tommydogg:
Will, I was thinking about you, I wish you the best of luck! Your in the crosshairs. Stay safe@

Hey Tommy! With each new update it's becoming more of a fact we're in for the nose of the storm. I'm not looking forwards to going thru another like Andrew but, at least we haven't had a bad storm in 25yrs since Andrew. Looks like much of Florida is going to get a piece of this one. Be safe all and take care of your family and pets.

quote:

Originally posted by Excam_Man:
I know nothing about Hurricanes.
How far inland can this thing reach?

Someone posted about possibly staying in Tallahassee. Assuming that would be far enough inland, to be safe?

Typically 100 miles with hurricane force winds, could be up to 200 miles. It depends on the terrain.

I grew up around 30 to 50 miles from the gulf coast, never could understand people who were living in close proximity to the gulf did not prepare in advance for a hurricane. As a kid we kept stuff year round to take care of us if the worst happened. Went tru several hurricanes and a few tornadoes, always had food, water, etc. because we planned ahead. Always kept all the spare space in our freezers filled, as we used up stuff we replaced that space with containers of water, if the power went out that kept the food good for a longer period of time. When they predicted a storm we filled the bathtub with water to use to flush the toilet, etc. always had
Food that didn't need to be cooked or kept cold in case of a power outage. Just have to stay prepared.

quote:

Originally posted by ZSMICHAEL:

quote:

You better HOPE they don't get into Miami on Sunday, the storm is due to hit 8am, seas 51', yes FEET. So hopefully the ship diverts. If the car is in the parking garage, it's probably the safest place for it.

Yeah the cruise lines have all diverted. They are staying out to sea, and if it is feasible going to another port.

Called last night. Present plans: Mexico until 12 Noon Friday then possibly heading for MIA. I know that they won't try to port on Sunday, but I worry about them getting out of FL when they do arrive.

Son told me that realistically, he didn't think they would make MIA before Tuesday which may be for the best.



RMD

quote:

Originally posted by Excam_Man:
I know nothing about Hurricanes.
How far inland can this thing reach?

Someone posted about possibly staying in Tallahassee. Assuming that would be far enough inland, to be safe?

If Irma goes up the east coast of Florida the storm will most likely cover the entire width of the state.

The question is how strong will the winds be as you get further from the center of the storm. The worst area is the area surrounding the eye of the storm and as you get further out the winds weaken. the stronger the storm, the further out from the center you need to go to get out of the "dangerous" winds and into "really bad" winds and then into "bad" winds. Get far enough out from the center and you end up getting clear.

if this storm tracks north as currently projected, Tallahassee will get some rains and minor winds, at worse no more than a typical afternoon thunderstorm.

Also, keep in mind that Tallahassee is just plan B. If the storm track made both staying home and Tallahassee poor choices I have a plan C and a plan D already lined up.

quote:

Originally posted by SpinZone:
The question is how strong will the winds be as you get further from the center of the storm. The worst area is the area surrounding the eye of the storm and as you get further out the winds weaken. the stronger the storm, the further out from the center you need to go to get out of the "dangerous" winds and into "really bad" winds and then into "bad" winds. Get far enough out from the center and you end up getting clear.

Here I was on the northern eye wall during Hurricane Andrew and we had sustained winds at one point of 168mph, gusts much higher. Sounds loud like a massive freight train with lots of bangs and crashing noises. I wish that I had a photo of a piece of wood fir strip that impaled the CBS concrete block wall like a spear sticking thru on the east side of my home after inspecting damage after the storm. I have so many stories from the odd type wind damages following Andrew. Several vehicles were picked up and tossed up on folks houses. In my neighborhood a U-Haul box van was lifted up and tossed on top of a home. We had a mix of hurricane winds along with tornados often destroying concrete block homes down to the foundations and leaving the surrounding homes with normal wind damages. What a change in the landscape following the storm, no street signs, all trees down or ripped out completely. I got lost at night returning to my home without available lighting to see and no normal visible landmarks that you normally take for granted, everything was like a foreign landscape, easy to get disoriented at night. So many weird memories of that storm, definitely changed peoples lives. Stay safe folks.

quote:

Originally posted by bigdeal:

quote:

Originally posted by jimmy123x:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by Dtech:
I'm still thinking the average of the computer models give or take a few miles will come to pass and that the eye will not make landfall in South Florida.

Problem with that thinking is the European model usually ends up being the most accurate.

I hope, for your sake, that of our other members, a friend of mine who lives just south of Daytona, and the rest of the residents of Florida that you're right, but, if I lived in that area I think I'd be outta there if I could be.

Well over the past 36 hours they have gradually kept shifting the track eastward. First it was landfall at Key West, then Marathon, then Key Largo, now Miami......So hopefully it keeps turning more eastward.....

^^^This.

Unfortunately: Not over the last 24 hours, though . This morning's NOAA NHC track prediction looks like yesterday's at this time.



The 00Z ECMWF model agrees. You can see it here: http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/...ecmwf_caribbean.html (Since they don't give a date, only time, I assume it's for the current date. Time is UTC.)

Min. pressure is still really low (921 mb) and max sustained winds at 180 MPH.

quote:

Originally posted by bigdeal:
Now if that high pressure zone would push further down into Florida....

Pushing the low front to the east and southeast of it. Yes, that's the hope.

Now I have to hear about this shit constantly at home. Wife keeps reading everything she comes across from all the news sites. Her parents keep calling and giving "updates" from Chicago.

quote:

Originally posted by Edmond:
Now I have to hear about this shit constantly at home. Wife keeps reading everything she comes across from all the news sites. Her parents keep calling and giving "updates" from Chicago.

I am with you there.
When Harvey was coming Raingirl was obsessed with all the news and weather channels and stayed up all night freaking out.

Good luck!

quote:

Originally posted by Edmond:
Now I have to hear about this shit constantly at home. Wife keeps reading everything she comes across from all the news sites. Her parents keep calling and giving "updates" from Chicago.

Media-driven hysteria.

Man, if I were king, I'd clean freakin' house.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Armed security?

If I'm concealed, it should be legal. Laws about firearms in schools are suspended if there is an evacuation order given. The school ceases to be a school and becomes a shelter.

They had us stand down today, but we are still scheduled to open on Friday at noon.

Is the opposite of "stand down", "sit up"?

I live in the SE corner of AL.
The city of Dothan, 8 miles to my South, is almost completely booked. That's 24 hotels pretty much locked up for Friday through Monday.

Y'all be safe down there.

Question re liquid propane tank....I have a 1000 gallon LP tank buried in my yard that supplies the hot water heater, stove, grill, etc. It also supplies my 20kw standby generator. Should I shut off the main gas valve before the storm? It makes sense but then I lose my generator (AC, refrigerator, lights, etc).