I went by Publix this morning to pick up a few extra items, nothing spectacular as we are pretty much stocked with water and dry goods for a hurricane all season long.

I did go down the aisle that has the water and sure enough, the water section is bare just like the news reported. What the news did not report about was the pallets of water they have up in the front of the store.

On the way home I stopped and filled gas cans with 20 gallons of ethanol free gas for the generator.

Both places had no real lines to speak of but a bunch of school buses pulled into the gas station while I was filling up and caused quite a cluster fuck. The busses were waiting for people to pull out so they could pull up to the pumps but they were blocking the travel lanes so people could not get out. Fortunately the ethanol free pumps are at the far end and I was able to get out.

We will decide around thurs night if we will stay or go. Right now we are leaning towards going.

My mother lives in central FL, in the Ocala National Forest. She is off-grid, with solar and batteries, however strong winds would wreck that. Add in that she lives in the middle of a forest of rickety pine trees...

My sister lives in St Augustine, on the mainland and are on an underground power grid shared by the hospital. They have good luck usually. They are planning to ride it out.

I expect my mother to see the light any day and come stay with me.

The forecast track is starting to drift east. Usually once it starts drifting it keeps going. I'd bet by the time it makes the turn, the eye is well east Florida.

This is the official site to check, for those not familiar with hurricanes. No hype, just the facts. The discussion explains it all. Here is the link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

From the Discussion section:

Irma is moving west-northwestward or 285/14 kt. A strong high
pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic westward is
expected to keep Irma moving west-northwestward during the next 2
to 3 days. The track guidance is in good agreement during this
period and the NHC track is along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope in best agreement with the ECMWF and HFIP corrected
consensus model. After that time, a shortwave trough moving
southward over the east-central United States is expected to erode
the western portion of the ridge. As a result, Irma is forecast to
turn northwestward and northward, but there is still a fair amount
of uncertainty regarding the exact timing and location of
recurvature. The NHC forecast has been shifted eastward to be in
better agreement with the latest model guidance, however it should
be noted that there are numerous GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members
that take Irma over and/or west of Florida. The updated NHC track
is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF ensemble mean. Users are
reminded that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are
about 175 and 225 statue miles, respectively.

quote:

Originally posted by SpinZone:


We will decide around thurs night if we will stay or go. Right now we are leaning towards going.

Are you near the beaches? I'm in Fleming Island, and I'm maybe naive to not even considered heading out.

My office is in Green Cove Springs, and there's not a case of water to be found, and lines at the gas stations. I'm surprised really, with the storm being at least another 4 days away. That said, my tanks are all full, and I've a dozen cases of water at home. I wish I could find a few loaves of bread.

I live in Jacksonville Beach, one block off the ocean. Stores are full of people but not terribly so. No cases of water around, but I did get 2, 5 gallon bottles at Home Depot. Otherwise I'm in pretty good shape. I'll wait as long as possible to consider evacuating...

One of the local Home Depots was selling generators as fast as they could break the pallets down.

Gas cans seem to be gone everywhere, save for a 1 gallon container here and there.

I did spot a gentleman filling 3 55 gallon drums of gas at the Wawa near me. The gas stations were a bit of a charley foxtrot but nothing homicidal yet.

quote:

Originally posted by Delmag Tech:

quote:

Originally posted by SpinZone:


We will decide around thurs night if we will stay or go. Right now we are leaning towards going.

Are you near the beaches? I'm in Fleming Island, and I'm maybe naive to not even considered heading out.

My office is in Green Cove Springs, and there's not a case of water to be found, and lines at the gas stations. I'm surprised really, with the storm being at least another 4 days away. That said, my tanks are all full, and I've a dozen cases of water at home. I wish I could find a few loaves of bread.

We are in east Arlington between Ft Caroline and the river. We are high enough that I'm not worried about flooding but our neighborhood is full of mature trees. I have 5 trees within 10 feet of the house and that's pretty average for the area.

I'm with you on having to consider heading out. I have a reservation at a hotel in Tallahassee for Sunday - Tuesday, I will decide on Friday if I will use it or cancel it.

Funny you should mention that- My neighborhood is also full of mature trees. But the couple that can hit my house would only do superficial damage.

Last night, I topped off the fuel tank in my boat and I parked it dead center of the back yard (where no heavy limbs can fall on it)

I have a miller bobcat welder to feed the house with if need be- I just need to come up with a small pump to pull gasoline from the boat tank when or if it becomes necessary. I'm thinking the parts store might have some cheap little holley 12v pump I can set up.

I've also thought today about buying two sizable trash cans, and filling them with water in the garage. I'm thinking it could be boiled for cooking use, or bucket in to flush toilets if need be. I don't know- almost seems over the top...

This is a great weather map. It also allows you to personalize it for the info you are interested in.
You may like it too.

https://www.wunderground.com/w...tor=0&hur=1&models=0

quote:

Originally posted by fau:
In South Florida as well. Here's hoping for a sharp right turn and a meaningless storm away from land!

Amen.

All of the pumps at the local RaceTrac gas station had bags on them except the two diesel pumps. Eight people pulled in behind me as I filled up. None of them had diesels. Thirty pumps with plastic bags on the handles and they think the one I'm at is the magic one.

Good luck, keep your powder dry.

An interesting read if you're following the storm. Let's hope their model isn't accurate either.

https://arstechnica.com/scienc...l-predicts-for-irma/

That's from 5 am. Quite a bit has changed in the last 12 hours.

quote:

Originally posted by Delmag Tech:
Funny you should mention that- My neighborhood is also full of mature trees. But the couple that can hit my house would only do superficial damage.

Last night, I topped off the fuel tank in my boat and I parked it dead center of the back yard (where no heavy limbs can fall on it)

I have a miller bobcat welder to feed the house with if need be- I just need to come up with a small pump to pull gasoline from the boat tank when or if it becomes necessary. I'm thinking the parts store might have some cheap little holley 12v pump I can set up.

I've also thought today about buying two sizable trash cans, and filling them with water in the garage. I'm thinking it could be boiled for cooking use, or bucket in to flush toilets if need be. I don't know- almost seems over the top...

If you have an outboard, you don't need a pump, just get a hose that will reach the ground and pump the primer ball several times and it will gravity feed into a gas can, no problem.

The 2 gas stations near me are out of gas completely, even Rec 90. The marina near me is out of gas too (I know the owner and usualy never have a problem there). I did pump 470 gallons of diesel into one of the yachts I manage at a local fuel dock. They had gas too, but of course the marina price (rec 90) is around $3.70 per gallon.

quote:

Originally posted by bigdeal:
An interesting read if you're following the storm. Let's hope their model isn't accurate either.

If, by "their," you mean the Euro model: As noted in the article: They're usually closer than anybody else. In this case: Very bad news for Florida And, by extension, the rest of the country.

To those touting their UG power, you do realize the initial feed is OH somewhere right? UG isn't guaranteed to never fail. It can also be more difficult to troubleshoot in the event of failure. I say this to share knowledge, not to piss on anyone's parade.

I hope the storm is less than it is being made out to be. My thoughts will be with those who will have to endure the devastation.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by bigdeal:
An interesting read if you're following the storm. Let's hope their model isn't accurate either.

If, by "their," you mean the Euro model: As noted in the article: They're usually closer than anybody else. In this case: Very bad news for Florida And, by extension, the rest of the country.

Which one is the "Euro" model? I thought they were the ECWMF?

quote:

Originally posted by kx90:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by bigdeal:
An interesting read if you're following the storm. Let's hope their model isn't accurate either.

If, by "their," you mean the Euro model: As noted in the article: They're usually closer than anybody else. In this case: Very bad news for Florida And, by extension, the rest of the country.

Which one is the "Euro" model? I thought they were the ECWMF?

It's in the article.

DAMN! Youngest son and wife are on a cruise due to port in MIA on Sunday. Hope they have a car left when they finally get in and then can find gas to get home IF they get in.

RMD