I like the way Reagan phrased liberal's lack of reality

Re the Left:

After all that we and Israel have battered Iran, I'm surprised they have anything left. I guess they are more fortified than we realized? I don't believe they're capable of shutting down the Straight, but I didn't expect them to attack Qater, Bahrain and Diego either.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/...eLPOhzZsMTG0H5tO8%3D

Iran Threatens to Close Entire Hormuz Strait, Strike Utilities, US Companies After Trump Ultimatum

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards stated that any companies with U.S. shares will be ‘completely destroyed’ if Washington targets Iranian energy facilities.

Iran will move to shut down the entire Strait of Hormuz if U.S. President Donald Trump follows through with his threats to hit Iranian energy facilities, the nation’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated on March 22.

Trump said that the U.S. military would “hit and obliterate [Iran’s] various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST” if Tehran doesn’t fully open the Strait of Hormuz “without threat” within 48 hours of his social media post on March 21.

The announcement came a day after Trump suggested that the United States was “getting very close” to meeting its military objectives in the Middle East regarding Iran and would consider “winding down” the war after reaching the fourth week.

“The Strait of Hormuz will ​be completely closed and will not be opened until our destroyed power plants are rebuilt,” the Revolutionary Guard said in a March 22 statement.

The Revolutionary Guard stated that any companies with U.S. shares will be “completely destroyed” if Washington targets Iranian energy facilities. Energy infrastructure of nations that host U.S. military bases will be “lawful” targets, according to the statement.

Iran also threatened on March 22 to strike the energy and water facilities of its Gulf state neighbors if Trump follows through with his 48-hour ultimatum.

Trump, in his March 21 statement, said that the Strait of Hormuz “will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it—The United States does not!”

“If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them,” he said.

While only a small portion of U.S. oil imports travel through the Strait of Hormuz, roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply and 20 percent of its liquified natural gas supply pass through the critical waterway.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a statement posted to social media on March 22 that the Strait of Hormuz remains “open to all except those who violate our soil.”

After Iran moved to effectively close the strait for vessels of any nation that does not seek explicit safe passage from its regime, disruptions to the global oil supply have caused large market fluctuations and uncertainty.

The international benchmark Brent crude oil price had risen to $112.19 per barrel by the morning of March 22 as the strait remains blocked, and Iranian leaders have said that prices could climb as high as $200 per barrel if the war continues.

cont...

^^^^

quote:

After all that we and Israel have battered Iran, I'm surprised they have anything left. I guess they are more fortified than we realized?

The fact that they still have missiles raining down Israel and other Middle East countries suggests that this is far from over, unfortunately.

^^^^^^
I wonder if they’re getting additional missiles from Russia or elsewhere.

^^^ i wonder that too, but couldn't we spot that?

They must have really spread their firepower around.

quote:

Originally posted by Pipe Smoker:
^^^^^^
I wonder if they’re getting additional missiles from Russia or elsewhere.

They're getting Russian-made drone hardware at the very least, according to Financial Times and Times of Israel.

quote:

Originally posted by DennisM:
They're getting Russian-made ....

“Getting” or Got?
They could have anticipated and been preparing for this war for years, and based on how they’ve responded, they probably were. Is there any reason to believe that what is being used was not stored in well-hidden and diversified bunkers long ago?

^^^

Drones domestic production since 1985, missiles that could reach Israel in the late 90s and drones in 2021.

They have been working on all of this for a very long time.

The Islamic Republic is like River Bamboo.

Once it has taken hold to a large area, it will be a major ordeal to eradicate it.

3-5 years, and complete and thorough overturning and root raking all the rhizome mass and constant follow-up until every bit of it is gone.

Shit. Four freaking weeks and all the pussies want to tap out.

But let Iran light off one Kadrun Sunrise™, and the whole world will blame the USA for not having done anything to stop it.

Shouldn’t oil be paid for on delivery??
If we buy oil from the Middle East, we should pay for it when it arrives in Houston.
That way, we don’t care about the straight of hormuz because it’s not our problem.

We buy oil at the source. Shipping is risky. Especially with people shooting missiles at the ships. Let the people selling the oil take that risk. We will pay for it only if you make good delivery.
We shouldn’t have to keep the Straight open. That should be a Middle East problem. Iran would not shut down the straight if it was their risk.

If Iran shuts down the Straight we should wipe out all of their electricity and oil refineries.

They’ve already basically shut it down just with threats.

They will let you pass for 2 million per boat

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:
Shouldn’t oil be paid for on delivery??
If we buy oil from the Middle East, we should pay for it when it arrives in Houston.
That way, we don’t care about the straight of hormuz because it’s not our problem.

We buy oil at the source. Shipping is risky. Especially with people shooting missiles at the ships. Let the people selling the oil take that risk. We will pay for it only if you make good delivery.
We shouldn’t have to keep the Straight open. That should be a Middle East problem. Iran would not shut down the straight if it was their risk.

I shared ~10 days ago that the US imports about 2.4 million barrels per day via tanker to maintain life as we know it. Due to #1 and #2, we could open Pandora's Box if we try switching INCO terms to DAP (delivered at place) for that 2.4 million barrels per day. For example, our buddy Balze Halze could end up delivering crude oil to Singapore instead of Philadelphia.

1. Crude oil is less fungible than gasoline or diesel but still pretty fungible. As a decent simplification of very complex financial and refinery efficiency models, crude oil traders mainly worry about which category of crude they're purchasing - light sweet, light sour, medium sweet, medium sour, heavy sweet, and heavy sour. Since it's more or less fungible within these six categories, we're bidding against the rest of the world for our crude units that are configured to refine one specific crude category. For example, a refinery's crude unit set up to process WTI will experience massive yield drops if trying to process the heavy sour Venezuelan crude oil, and vice versa

2. In my 30 years this is the first time I've seen this - we're experiencing huge regional price disparity between eastern hemisphre and western hemishere crude oil. Sure, there has for decades been multiple exchanges where it's traded and the the different crude oils trade at different values (e.g the US'S WTI vs the European's Brent) based on quality and logistics, but this is different. In the West, WTI price went from mid 60s to mid to upper 90s. In Asia Pacific, the crude oils are trading $25-$40 higher than ours which is actually an improvement as the week prior they were paying $50 higher (e.g. Platts Dubai hit $157 but has improved to $134). Platts Dubai is a lesser crude (medium sour) than WTI (i.e. light sweet), and will generally yield less gasoline per barrel when refined.

Article has been updated substantially, so I've refreshed the text.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/...usdUN7i8dAuxXX3ns%3D

Trump Postpones Potential Strikes on Iranian Power Plants, Citing Ongoing ‘Constructive’ Talks

The Department of War has been instructed to postpone strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, initially for five days.

President Donald Trump said on March 23 that he ordered a five‑day pause on planned U.S. strikes against Iranian energy sites after what he called “productive” talks toward a full resolution of the Middle East conflict.

In a Truth Social post, Trump stated that both sides discussed a “complete and total resolution” of the conflict, now entering its fourth week.

“I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,” the president said on his social media platform.

“Based on the tenor and tone of these in‑depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five‑day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.”

Trump’s comments come after he issued a 48‑hour deadline for Iran to reopen the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.

The narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, which handles about 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day, has been a focal point of the conflict.

Financial markets cheered the Truth Social post before paring their gains.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average popped more than 1,200 points following the news. The benchmark index trimmed its rally to around 500 points.

The tech-driven Nasdaq Composite Index and broader S&P 500 soared about 170 points and 600 points, respectively. They cut their increase by about half.

After tanking almost 11 percent, crude oil prices tempered, with the U.S. benchmark—World Texas Intermediate—declining about 5 percent to $93 per barrel. Brent, the global benchmark for oil prices, also slumped more than 5 percent to kick off the trading week to around $106 a barrel.

Speaking on a call with CNBC’s Joe Kernen on March 23, the president said conversations with Iranian officials have been intense and expressed hope that the situation will be resolved soon.

Kernen noted that Trump described the operations in Tehran as regime change.

Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned on March 22 that any attack on Iran’s power facilities would prompt swift retaliation against energy and oil sites throughout the region. He said those locations would be treated as legitimate targets and “permanently destroyed,” adding that such a confrontation would send global oil prices sharply higher.

Financial institutions holding U.S. government bonds would also become targets, he noted in a separate X post.

“U.S. treasury bonds are soaked in Iranians’ blood. Purchase them, and you purchase a strike on your HQ and assets,” Ghalibaf stated. “Alongside military bases, those financial entities that finance the U.S. military budget are legitimate targets.”

Yields on U.S. Treasury securities rose across the board in futures trading, but long-term interest rates have experienced a reversal.

The benchmark 10-year yield erased about 2 basis points to below 3.8 percent. The 30-year yield fell by about 2 basis points to 4.94 percent.

The 2-year, which typically tracks Federal Reserve policy, was little changed at 3.89 percent. The short-term government bond has surged this month on growing expectations that the U.S. central bank will keep interest rates higher for longer, with a growing chorus of investors pricing in a rate hike later this year.

quote:

Trump Postpones Potential Strikes on Iranian Power Plants, Citing Ongoing ‘Constructive’ Talks

Trump’s comments sparked a sharp turnaround in markets after the two sides escalated rhetoric over the weekend, with hours left before a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Rising oil prices have fueled fears that central banks may be forced to tighten monetary policy.

Update (0745ET): It did not take long for the denials to emerge. Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency (which is the propaganda arm of the IRGC so take it with lots of salt) said that anonymous Iranian source, Iran is not in contact with Trump adding that “there is no direct or indirect communication with Trump."

“He retreated after hearing that our targets would be all power plants in West Asia,” Fars said. A similar denial came from the semi-official Tasnim news reports which said that Iran is not in talks and there have been no talks with US President Donald Trump. It added that Iran will continue to respond and defend country; Strait of Hormuz won’t return to pre-war status through psychological operations. Trump’s social media statement is “psychological warfare”

“The statements of the US President are part of efforts to reduce energy prices and buy time for the implementation of his military plans,” state-run Mizan news agency reports, citing a Foreign Ministry statement as saying.

“There are no talks between Tehran and Washington”

“Yes, there are initiatives from regional countries to reduce tensions, and our response to all of them is clear: we are not the party that started this war, and all these requests should be referred to Washington.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/mark...trumps-comments-iran

I just love how the media has played this. "The fastest-rising oil and gas prices in history!" "Rising gas prices may wipe out Trump tax refunds!"

The Iranians have a history of conversation that turns out to be bullshit and time delays

quote:

Originally posted by downtownv:
The Iranians have a history of conversation that turns out to be bullshit and time delays

I don't see a downside and see lots of upside on delaying bombing the Iranian power grid. For example if the people of Iran rise up, they're in a much better place with a power grid.

To be clear, Israel and US continue to bomb the shit out of military targets such as IRGC, mine layers, missiles, drones, etc.

quote:

Originally posted by egregore:
I just love how the media has played this. "The fastest-rising oil and gas prices in history!" "Rising gas prices may wipe out Trump tax refunds!"

To the media, personal costs from rising gas prices are far more important than freeing a country from decades of a tyrannical dictatorship and a proven enemy of the state.

We're in a perpetual, never ending war with these dictators. We have a chance to end it now. But no, that's not worth a transient rise in gas prices.